Why Don't Leaf Fans view the Leafs as a Contender?

[A1LeafNation]

A bit of concern around our defense, and a bit of pure pessimism (which we've earned the right to have).




To be fair, those are the three most likely teams we'd have to get through.

Season Series:
PIT: 1-1-0
TBL: 1-1-1 (no shootouts in the playoffs)
BOS: 3-1-0

 

[Liminality]

A bit of concern around our defense, and a bit of pure pessimism (which we've earned the right to have).




To be fair, those are the three most likely teams we'd have to get through.

They've also beaten some of the best teams in the west during that time. Anaheim 7-4, Nashville 3-2 and Dallas 4-1. Not to mention we beat Tampa two weeks ago 4-3.

I don't think any team is perfect, chasing for a perfect team is trying to find that unicorn.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Season Series:
PIT: 1-1-0
TBL: 1-1-1 (no shootouts in the playoffs)
BOS: 3-1-0

My point was these guys are some of the top teams in the league right now with a lot more playoff experience than our team. There is a fair bit of room for uncertainty there as a fan, at least IMO.

I'm not saying we have no chance and I think we can hang with the best when the boys are on their game, but this isn't going to be easy.


What it will be is a ton of fun to watch. I can't wait.

 

[Commander Clueless]

They've also beaten some of the best teams in the west during that time. Anaheim 7-4, Nashville 3-2 and Dallas 4-1. Not to mention we beat Tampa two weeks ago 4-3.

I don't think any team is perfect, chasing for a perfect team is trying to find that unicorn.

Completely agree, but I have to admit I would've felt a lot better with another top pairing defender back there.

Either way, never say never and Go Leafs Friggin' Go.

 

[Loosie]

I'm happy we didn't sell off our UFA as they will be key pieces for us in this stretch run and the playoffs. I'm also ok with not being huge buyers either as I think it would have taken a key piece to get something. I feel we can go on a deep run, but also feel we can potentially lose in the first round, and I'm not sure a huge splash at the deadline would have changed that this year.

The East is going to be really tough to get out of. Our likely path is going to be Boston -> Tampa -> Pittsburgh. That's a hard path. Can we do it? Absolutely. Will it be difficult, you bet. Tampa may have gotten better on paper, but that's only paper. If we don't get through this year the time for us to reload on defence will be the off-season/free agency, not the deadline.

This season has been really fun and we are on pace to have our best season ever and still only finish 3rd in the division, how crazy is that. Our young guys are still going to get better. Our window starts this year, but is not only this year.

 

[Incetardis]

It's an interesting point. I think with the perception of our top players (Matthews, Nylander, Marner) being that they still need some time to fully develop and the ongoing belief that our defence is still a player or two away from being good enough to compete makes it seem like this isn't our year to challenge for a cup. In reality the defence is a lot better than I think anyone thought. Still not an elite D corps but Reilly has emerged as a true #1, Jake has his hiccups but he's a solid #2, Hainsey has been a stalwart and great mentor for the younger players, Zaitsev hasn't had a great year but fits nicely in the #4 slot, and Dermott at #5 has completely changed the dynamic of that bottom pairing. The #6 spot is a little weak between Polak and Carrick but Dermott has played so well its masked their deficiencies. And then you look at the insane depth at the forward positions. You could make an argument for Tampa or Winnepeg being the best in the league but Leafs are easily top 3 with Vezina calibre goalie. With all that in mind... Maybe we should expect more out of this years team

 

[A1LeafNation]

My point was these guys are some of the top teams in the league right now with a lot more playoff experience than our team. There is a fair bit of room for uncertainty there as a fan, at least IMO.

I'm not saying we have no chance and I think we can hang with the best when the boys are on their game, but this isn't going to be easy.


What it will be is a ton of fun to watch. I can't wait.

Half of Boston is old the other half are rookies.

 

[rojac]

The question of whether the Leafs are contenders or not is largely moot now that the trade deadline has passed. The team is set. And assuming a complete collapse does not happen, all that is left to do is see how far they can go.

Fans should just jump in feet first and cheer whole-heartedly for the Leafs to win. Otherwise, what's the point? Heartbreak and disappointment, are in some ways, what being a sports fan is all about. Riding that crest of emotion is fun. Enjoy the journey.

If a season ends badly, put the disappointment behind you, but remember the highs and fun of the journey. Then you recharge your batteries and get ready for the next season.

One of the problems with Leafs fans, I think, is that they hold on to way too much garbage from previous seasons. Who really cares anymore about the missed high sticking call on Gilmour in 1993 or that they blew a 3-goal lead in game 7 to lose to Boston or that Washington beat us in six games last year? That's all baggage that should be checked at the door.

What should be remembered is the thrill of the 1993 playoff run and that we came within a game of a fabled Toronto-Montreal final series, how Randy Carlyle managed to outmatch Claude Julien to allow Phil Kessel to perform well against a former team that had given him problems, and how a team that many said would be swept, took the President's Trophy-winning team to six one-goal games (five of them in OT).

Nietzsche is famous for saying that what does not kill us, makes us stronger. As sports fan, we should be channeling that disappoint and heartbreak from our team's failures into a stronger resolve that, one of these days, our team will prevail.

But instead, it seems that we have become afraid of hope. Is it the world around us? We see no hope there, so we have no hope for our team? Are we afraid of being hurt? If we believe the team never stood a chance, we can't be hurt. Seems a little silly to me. Hurt and pain help shape us. Are we afraid that we'll look foolish because we believed in a team that didn't make us? That friends and online acquaintances will laugh at us? Does what others think of us really matter all that much?

The Leafs have a good young team -- one of the best in the league. Hop on board, cheer them on and let's see where it goes.

 

[seanlinden]

We are 5th in the league right now, and has been the best team in the league over the last month. We are quite good. Not a Cup favorite, but we are good enough for realistic hope.


Their defensive depth. They'll likely go with Dan Girardi as their second pairing guy next to McDonagh. That's not a strong point. Sergachev is very good, but understandably still shaky defensively, and Coburn/Sustr is Polak-level players. And this is the frontrunner who a lot of people think is one of the strongest teams in recent years.


They don't really have one. They have top end players, and they have good depth. If anything, they don't have much in the tier in between.

You could say that we are their weak point though. They've really struggled against us.

I'd say that there are a few teams that I think we are legitimately underdogs against. Tampa, Nashville, Pens, Jets perhaps. But we are in the next group.

If Girardi & McDonagh are their 2nd pair -- that really, really, isn't a weak-point. McDonagh is a legitimate #1 defenceman. Even if you consider Girardi a #4/5 at this point, that's still one heck of a 2nd pair.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm happy we didn't sell off our UFA as they will be key pieces for us in this stretch run and the playoffs. I'm also ok with not being huge buyers either as I think it would have taken a key piece to get something. I feel we can go on a deep run, but also feel we can potentially lose in the first round, and I'm not sure a huge splash at the deadline would have changed that this year.

The East is going to be really tough to get out of. Our likely path is going to be Boston -> Tampa -> Pittsburgh. That's a hard path. Can we do it? Absolutely. Will it be difficult, you bet. Tampa may have gotten better on paper, but that's only paper. If we don't get through this year the time for us to reload on defence will be the off-season/free agency, not the deadline.

This season has been really fun and we are on pace to have our best season ever and still only finish 3rd in the division, how crazy is that. Our young guys are still going to get better. Our window starts this year, but is not only this year.

Agree 100% with all this. I haven't been this excited about the playoffs since after beating Detroit in 1993. And this is even better because it's only the beginning.

The question of whether the Leafs are contenders or not is largely moot now that the trade deadline has passed. The team is set. And assuming a complete collapse does not happen, all that is left to do is see how far they can go.

Fans should just jump in feet first and cheer whole-heartedly for the Leafs to win. Otherwise, what's the point? Heartbreak and disappointment, are in some ways, what being a sports fan is all about. Riding that crest of emotion is fun. Enjoy the journey.

If a season ends badly, put the disappointment behind you, but remember the highs and fun of the journey. Then you recharge your batteries and get ready for the next season.

One of the problems with Leafs fans, I think, is that they hold on to way too much garbage from previous seasons. Who really cares anymore about the missed high sticking call on Gilmour in 1993 or that they blew a 3-goal lead in game 7 to lose to Boston or that Washington beat us in six games last year? That's all baggage that should be checked at the door.

What should be remembered is the thrill of the 1993 playoff run and that we came within a game of a fabled Toronto-Montreal final series, how Randy Carlyle managed to outmatch Claude Julien to allow Phil Kessel to perform well against a former team that had given him problems, and how a team that many said would be swept, took the President's Trophy-winning team to six one-goal games (five of them in OT).

Nietzsche is famous for saying that what does not kill us, makes us stronger. As sports fan, we should be channeling that disappoint and heartbreak from our team's failures into a stronger resolve that, one of these days, our team will prevail.

But instead, it seems that we have become afraid of hope. Is it the world around us? We see no hope there, so we have no hope for our team? Are we afraid of being hurt? If we believe the team never stood a chance, we can't be hurt. Seems a little silly to me. Hurt and pain help shape us. Are we afraid that we'll look foolish because we believed in a team that didn't make us? That friends and online acquaintances will laugh at us? Does what others think of us really matter all that much?

The Leafs have a good young team -- one of the best in the league. Hop on board, cheer them on and let's see where it goes.

Awesome post. I have no fear, let the games begin!

 

[kb]

To answer the thread title about contender, please tell me what we've done to rate contender?
We are currently making the playoff for the 2nd year in a row and have 6 playoff games to our resume.
Give me a sample size and don't confuse will be contenders with are contenders.
You wouldn't judge the entire career of Mitch/Nylander based on the 1st half of this season. It's called sample size. The same holds true for playoff success. Sample size. We are more hopefuls rather than contenders. Good but by no means experienced.

Could you explain to me how a meaningful comparative sample size study can be completed with an infinite number of variables, and absolutely no constant other than "team name"?

I am very intrigued about this.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Could you explain to me how a meaningful comparative sample size study can be completed with an infinite number of variables, and absolutely no constant other than "team name"?

I am very intrigued about this.

That's a good point you make there.

Anyhow, as I say in all such threads, everyone has their own definition of contender anyway so until we define the terms, all discussion on this subject is meaningless. Having said that, of course we're a contender.

 

[TimeZone]

Philadelphia won the Superbowl because their backup QB out played the best QB of all time, when Foles looked simply awful in his two regular season starts.

Foles had no business beating Brady none whatsoever, yet it happened.

For some Leafs fans, denial is a way of life!

I mean, did you see the Patriots Defense? Brady throws for over 500 yards and they still lose.

Single elimination isn't the best comparable for a best of seven series.

 

[Trapper]

Could you explain to me how a meaningful comparative sample size study can be completed with an infinite number of variables, and absolutely no constant other than "team name"?

I am very intrigued about this.

I don't know, to me it's pretty simple. Make the playoffs every year.
Play more playoff games.
Get past the 1st round.
Show success.
Sample size. What are you looking for? In order to have a sample size, you need to establish one. There isyour variable. Why are we better than 15 other teams? What have we done? Because we are the Leafs?
If Jersey makes the playoffs again next year, are they contenders?

 

[Gary Nylund]

I mean, did you see the Patriots Defense? Brady throws for over 500 yards and they still lose.

Single elimination isn't the best comparable for a best of seven series.

It might be better than you think.

I don't know, to me it's pretty simple. Make the playoffs every year.
Play more playoff games.
Get past the 1st round.
Show success.
Sample size. What are you looking for? In order to have a sample size, you need to establish one. There isyour variable. Why are we better than 15 other teams? What have we done? Because we are the Leafs?
If Jersey makes the playoffs again next year, are they contenders?

I think every year/team should be taken as s separate entity. For example - make the playoffs every year - doesn't make sense here IMO. TB didn't make the playoffs last year, they're a contender aren't they?

For the purposes of discussion though, we would need to define what we mean by "contender". I also think it would be extremely difficult to come up with a precise definition. Without defining the term, I would say that IMHO, the Leafs are absolutely a contender for the simple reason that I don't believe there is a single team in the NHL that would be a heavy favourite against us. There's maybe 5 teams that I think it's fair to say would be favourites against us but heavy favourites, nope.

For the moment, we rank 6th in the league. Over the last month though we're closer to first then 6th though so that counts for something, if we were miles behind the top teams I'd say we're not a contender. And it counts for a fair bit because we can point to reasons for the improvement and argue that it's not just a hot streak. And even if we are "only" 6th, the gap between us and the #1 team just isn't that big. JMHO.

 

[thewave]

Leafs are 13-2-1

3 Losses: BOS, PIT, and TBL.

HF boards: Leafs suck.

LOL

To be fair you could probably attach 1 or 2 of those loses to Polak and his defensive breakdowns. We are better not together with Roman -King Kong- Polak.

 

[Trapper]

It might be better than you think.



I think every year/team should be taken as s separate entity. For example - make the playoffs every year - doesn't make sense here IMO. TB didn't make the playoffs last year, they're a contender aren't they?

For the purposes of discussion though, we would need to define what we mean by "contender". I also think it would be extremely difficult to come up with a precise definition. Without defining the term, I would say that IMHO, the Leafs are absolutely a contender for the simple reason that I don't believe there is a single team in the NHL that would be a heavy favourite against us. There's maybe 5 teams that I think it's fair to say would be favourites against us but heavy favourites, nope.

For the moment, we rank 6th in the league. Over the last month though we're closer to first then 6th though so that counts for something, if we were miles behind the top teams I'd say we're not a contender. And it counts for a fair bit because we can point to reasons for the improvement and argue that it's not just a hot streak. And even if we are "only" 6th, the gap between us and the #1 team just isn't that big. JMHO.

We must remember that playoffs and regular season are 2 different things. Nobody but us care that we are 5th/6th whatever. Nobody cares how many time the Caps won the Presidents Trophy. Again for me, it's our lack of playoff games/experience that I'm judging on. If people don't like hearing that, so be it.
It could go very well for us. Enjoy the ride. Cup, finals, 2nd/3rd round.
But be aware that it could also go very bad. 1st round exit, all UFAs walk. Then you can't even judge a full season withoutBozak/JVR/etc. yet. And they are gone with zero compensation. That's the flip side of this coin.
So enjoy the ride. I hope they do really well to justify me not liking this years asset management. Gain Matthews and the boys a greater playoff resume with advancement and I'll take that. But if Marner is doing all the work and JVR floats up the wing hoping for a PP, I will be most displeased.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We must remember that playoffs and regular season are 2 different things. Nobody but us care that we are 5th/6th whatever. Nobody cares how many time the Caps won the Presidents Trophy. Again for me, it's our lack of playoff games/experience that I'm judging on. If people don't like hearing that, sound it.
It could go very well for us. Enjoy the ride. Cup, finals, 2nd/3rd round.
But be aware that it could also go very bad. 1st round exit, all UFAs walk. Then you can't even judge a full season withoutBozak/JVR/etc. yet. And they are gone with zero compensation. That's the flip side of this coin.
So enjoy the ride. I hope they do really well to justify me not liking this years asset management. Gain Matthews and the boys a greater playoff resume with advancement and I'll take that. But if Marner is doing all the work and JVR floats up the wing hoping for a PP, I will be most displeased.

I hear ya and I do think it was very important that we got in last season though. 6 games experience is so much better than no games.

 

[FreeBird]

How many Leafs will be playing in the WHC in Denmark, this spring.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Season Series:
PIT: 1-1-0
TBL: 1-1-1 (no shootouts in the playoffs)
BOS: 3-1-0

Maybe this comes from the media the way they hype up Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Kucherov, Bergeron and Marchand or their playoff experiences, however as you posted the Leafs record against those teams is very good and they can match up with any team.

 

[kb]

How many Leafs will be playing in the WHC in Denmark, this spring.

None. Only Bruins.

 

[kb]

That's a good point you make there.

Anyhow, as I say in all such threads, everyone has their own definition of contender anyway so until we define the terms, all discussion on this subject is meaningless. Having said that, of course we're a contender.

Exactly. The Leafs are a contender. They are 31-13-6 in their last 50 games, if you want to take a good round number.

And the ironic thing is that the further back one goes in time, the more meaningless the data becomes.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Exactly. The Leafs are a contender. They are 31-13-6 in their last 50 games, if you want to take a good round number.

And the ironic thing is that the further back one goes in time, the more meaningless the data becomes.

 

[Polaris1010]

I mean, did you see the Patriots Defense? Brady throws for over 500 yards and they still lose.

Single elimination isn't the best comparable for a best of seven series.

It's been a few days, but that was the point I believe.

On paper, and people's views, say one thing. Then they play the game, and often the unexpected happens.

Are the Leafs contenders? Many people here on this forum insist otherwise like a mister negative.

When presented with real world examples to have a counter point, such as the Superbowl, they dismiss that for various reasons, when the basic points are that if you are there at the dance,

1. You probably deserve to be there.
2. You probably have a chance.

To many at this forum, that is unthinkable for the Leafs.

They would offer up excuses, reasons of whatever of why the Leafs are not a contender.

Provide counters to that with an example like the Superbowl ... well obviously that is a bad example mister negative ... since that is a bad example, the excuses and reasons of whatever still hold of why the Leafs are not contenders.

Not saying you are saying that of course, but you get my drift.

That is why I find these discussions very interesting.

Mister negative (in general) has a view about the Leafs based on some reason.

Provide some example to counter than reason, then mister negative dismisses that reason as being wrong too.

Mister negative was able to build two barriers, a dual layered defense for his views, which is rather impressive.

Because ... why be a fan of the Leafs ... when they can only lose?

It's kind of interesting ...

 

[kb]

I don't know, to me it's pretty simple. Make the playoffs every year.
Play more playoff games.
Get past the 1st round.
Show success.
Sample size. What are you looking for? In order to have a sample size, you need to establish one. There isyour variable. Why are we better than 15 other teams? What have we done? Because we are the Leafs?
If Jersey makes the playoffs again next year, are they contenders?

Comparative sample size arguments only apply if every team's roster and every player's individual's statistics and usage remain relatively static with little variation on a year to year (or even month to month) basis. The variables have to be known and accounted for. Including variations in player performance, as it is never static. Say Vasilevsky, Hedman, and Kucherov go down with season ending injuries, how is any comparative sample size going to account for this?

This is why comparative sample size arguments are flawed to the point of essentially having no relevance. The only constant is "team name".

Using past playoff performances by teams with fundamentally different rosters and players who were a year younger (let alone 2, 3 years) is even more ludicrous (no matter where the player is on the aging curve).

One can never compare apples to apples. The further back the data is, the less relevant it is to today.