Toronto ain't winning another game in that series...may not even come close to doing so
There hasn't been good matchups like this in a long time.As a neutral fan, I love these playoffs.
What? No. In no universe is this statement true.
If you're even bringing this to the discussion as an option, then you need to go back and read the entire body of work until you've changed your opinion.
A= People's judgement is scientifically proven to be effected by irrational recency bias
B= Playoff predictions are fundamentally a product of people's judgement
C= Therefore all predictions can fall victim to recency bias
Problem is you've never stated an argument for how this is relevant.
By making a comment you are suggesting that it somehow has relevancy, this is basic cognition/communication skills.
You've not proven how the this irrational bias has any relevance over the fact that hockey is a sport that is incredibly dynamic and therefore can only be judged over very short periods of time. And I honestly can't tell if your conflating irrational bias, with relevance of recent data. Saying people are irrationally using bias, is not remotely the same as rationally using the latest data. Recency bias would fit a situation where distributions are aligned with no sequence. I.e. So that my last and first lottery tickets are equally likely to be winners. Hockey is the polar opposite, where virtually every day experiences unpredictable disturbance in outcome. Which might be why some of us like the sport btw.
You've set up the perfect argument if people were stupid and didn't identify relevance as a component of reason.
If you want to pretend you weren't implying that this irrational bias has a superseding effect on predicting outcome, I don't think anyone is able to communicate with you on this one.
But I'd point out that the CBJ team today is significantly different than the one we saw most of the season. They loaded up for bear at the deadline and their record is misleading given the talent currently on the team. They actually could be like the 2012 Kings.Well, first of all, if a team has been eliminated from the playoffs, then their chance of winning the Stanley Cup is 0%. If you legitimately think that I'm that stupid, then thanks. "Hypothetically", of course.
In short, the recency bias is a cognitive bias whereupon more recent events have a greater weight placed upon them than (1) older events, or (2) is warranted. Here's a link that explains it reasonably well (along with other biases):
Ma: The betting mistakes we all make
In this case, Columbus' last three games against Tampa Bay are certainly important to pay attention to, and deserve more weighting on a per-game basis than older games. However, Columbus' entire body of work this year is also important, and they played a lot of games this season. Should their recent three games make them the favorite to win the Stanley Cup? Vegas odds would suggest no (it looks like they're about sixth-favorite).
We are all susceptible to cognitive biases - no matter how smart we are, or how educated we are.
Of course, the opposite of "recency bias" is the "he's due" argument - So-and-so hasn't scored a goal in twelve games, so he's due. That's one to watch out for as well, but probably not relevant here.
But I'd point out that the CBJ team today is significantly different than the one we saw most of the season. They loaded up for bear at the deadline and their record is misleading given the talent currently on the team. They actually could be like the 2012 Kings.
Not minimizing Vegas here, but the Sharks are playing their worst hockey and shouldn’t be a bar of how well VGK will fair in the next few rounds. Any team that’s actually playing “playoff hockey” will give them a good run.
That said, I called it last year the team that won our series then would make the finals. Could very well end up that way again.
So is that because of irrational recency bias, or because we don't know if you or they have a better model for predicting the outcome?I'm claiming that three games do not constitute a sufficient sample size to proclaim Columbus to be "the" favorite to win the 2019 Stanley Cup, and that any person doing so is placing far more weight upon these three games than is reasonably warranted.
Toronto absolutely has the talent to do it and currently has a 2-1 lead on a team that a lot of people in this thread have said would be the next favourite after Tampa. They definitely have a case.
User name checks out?Sure, absolutely (and solid play on words in the bolded). Should that make them the favorite among all teams remaining? Anyone who thinks so will find an arbitrage opportunity in Las Vegas right now.
Tampa.
They will grow strong from this round. Win 4 straight now and rest a walk in a park in comparison.
Toronto absolutely has the talent to do it and currently has a 2-1 lead on a team that a lot of people in this thread have said would be the next favourite after Tampa. They definitely have a case.