Who do you consider Cup favorites now?

[OVO16]

Easily the Caps

 

[Pi]

Toronto ain't winning another game in that series...may not even come close to doing so

Good call.

 

[Red Dread]

Tonight's shaking my faith but I still wanna say Caps.

 

[wingman75]

Tampa still? Mmmm, maybe not... WSH? Tough call.

 

[kylbaz]

As a neutral fan, I love these playoffs.

There hasn't been good matchups like this in a long time.

 

[HugoSimon]

What? No. In no universe is this statement true.

If you're even bringing this to the discussion as an option, then you need to go back and read the entire body of work until you've changed your opinion.

A= People's judgement is scientifically proven to be effected by irrational recency bias
B= Playoff predictions are fundamentally a product of people's judgement
C= Therefore all predictions can fall victim to recency bias

Problem is you've never stated an argument for how this is relevant.

By making a comment you are suggesting that it somehow has relevancy, this is basic cognition/communication skills.

You've not proven how the this irrational bias has any relevance over the fact that hockey is a sport that is incredibly dynamic and therefore can only be judged over very short periods of time. And I honestly can't tell if your conflating irrational bias, with relevance of recent data. Saying people are irrationally using bias, is not remotely the same as rationally using the latest data. Recency bias would fit a situation where distributions are aligned with no sequence. I.e. So that my last and first lottery tickets are equally likely to be winners. Hockey is the polar opposite, where virtually every day experiences unpredictable disturbance in outcome. Which might be why some of us like the sport btw.



You've set up the perfect argument if people were stupid and didn't identify relevance as a component of reason.

If you want to pretend you weren't implying that this irrational bias has a superseding effect on predicting outcome, I don't think anyone is able to communicate with you on this one.

 

[Boy Hedican]

Not minimizing Vegas here, but the Sharks are playing their worst hockey and shouldn’t be a bar of how well VGK will fair in the next few rounds. Any team that’s actually playing “playoff hockey” will give them a good run.

That said, I called it last year the team that won our series then would make the finals. Could very well end up that way again.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

A= People's judgement is scientifically proven to be effected by irrational recency bias
B= Playoff predictions are fundamentally a product of people's judgement
C= Therefore all predictions can fall victim to recency bias

Problem is you've never stated an argument for how this is relevant.

By making a comment you are suggesting that it somehow has relevancy, this is basic cognition/communication skills.

You've not proven how the this irrational bias has any relevance over the fact that hockey is a sport that is incredibly dynamic and therefore can only be judged over very short periods of time. And I honestly can't tell if your conflating irrational bias, with relevance of recent data. Saying people are irrationally using bias, is not remotely the same as rationally using the latest data. Recency bias would fit a situation where distributions are aligned with no sequence. I.e. So that my last and first lottery tickets are equally likely to be winners. Hockey is the polar opposite, where virtually every day experiences unpredictable disturbance in outcome. Which might be why some of us like the sport btw.



You've set up the perfect argument if people were stupid and didn't identify relevance as a component of reason.

If you want to pretend you weren't implying that this irrational bias has a superseding effect on predicting outcome, I don't think anyone is able to communicate with you on this one.

I'm claiming that three games do not constitute a sufficient sample size to proclaim Columbus to be "the" favorite to win the 2019 Stanley Cup, and that any person doing so is placing far more weight upon these three games than is reasonably warranted.

 

[sabremike]

Well, first of all, if a team has been eliminated from the playoffs, then their chance of winning the Stanley Cup is 0%. If you legitimately think that I'm that stupid, then thanks. "Hypothetically", of course.

In short, the recency bias is a cognitive bias whereupon more recent events have a greater weight placed upon them than (1) older events, or (2) is warranted. Here's a link that explains it reasonably well (along with other biases):

Ma: The betting mistakes we all make

In this case, Columbus' last three games against Tampa Bay are certainly important to pay attention to, and deserve more weighting on a per-game basis than older games. However, Columbus' entire body of work this year is also important, and they played a lot of games this season. Should their recent three games make them the favorite to win the Stanley Cup? Vegas odds would suggest no (it looks like they're about sixth-favorite).

We are all susceptible to cognitive biases - no matter how smart we are, or how educated we are.

Of course, the opposite of "recency bias" is the "he's due" argument - So-and-so hasn't scored a goal in twelve games, so he's due. That's one to watch out for as well, but probably not relevant here.

But I'd point out that the CBJ team today is significantly different than the one we saw most of the season. They loaded up for bear at the deadline and their record is misleading given the talent currently on the team. They actually could be like the 2012 Kings.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

But I'd point out that the CBJ team today is significantly different than the one we saw most of the season. They loaded up for bear at the deadline and their record is misleading given the talent currently on the team. They actually could be like the 2012 Kings.

Sure, absolutely (and solid play on words in the bolded). Should that make them the favorite among all teams remaining? Anyone who thinks so will find an arbitrage opportunity in Las Vegas right now.

 

[c9777666]

Not minimizing Vegas here, but the Sharks are playing their worst hockey and shouldn’t be a bar of how well VGK will fair in the next few rounds. Any team that’s actually playing “playoff hockey” will give them a good run.

That said, I called it last year the team that won our series then would make the finals. Could very well end up that way again.

And based on what's going on in the other Pacific series..... unexpected home ice advantage might await

 

[Aintboutdatlyfe]

Toronto absolutely has the talent to do it and currently has a 2-1 lead on a team that a lot of people in this thread have said would be the next favourite after Tampa. They definitely have a case.

 

[HugoSimon]

I'm claiming that three games do not constitute a sufficient sample size to proclaim Columbus to be "the" favorite to win the 2019 Stanley Cup, and that any person doing so is placing far more weight upon these three games than is reasonably warranted.

So is that because of irrational recency bias, or because we don't know if you or they have a better model for predicting the outcome?

Your trying to conflate irrational bias with the troubles of defining of what is a reasonable sample size.

They just smashed a top seed in 3 games. This wasn't just a team that had gamed the system to collect points, they had a superb gpa all season long.

It's pretty dam near impossible to pinpoint what the reasonable sample size is, but its beyond foolish to think that either full season stats or the playoff performances are not relevant.

The results of these games suggest that both teams are pretty amazing at certain styles of play.

To suggest a winner requires identifying a team with extraordinary performance, and Columbus seems to be topping that list at the moment.

 

[HugoSimon]

Toronto absolutely has the talent to do it and currently has a 2-1 lead on a team that a lot of people in this thread have said would be the next favourite after Tampa. They definitely have a case.

I'd think for certain if you asked most unbiased people they saw the series going to game 5/6. They lost in game 7 last year so assuming it was a sweep was never reasonable.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I don't think your mind is going to be changed. Have a good night.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Ill say Caps or Toronto.

 

[Jmo89]

Caps and then Vegas.

 

[TheTechNoir]

The isles. That is not "now"
That is, just, how it is and has been. Tampa not being eliminated but losing their series does not change that I think NYI wins the cup.

 

[TheTechNoir]

Columbus - Vegas final

Not a bad

 

[Devonator]

The Caps and Vegas......but with such parity....really anything is possible.....

 

[Inglewood JACKets]

Sure, absolutely (and solid play on words in the bolded). Should that make them the favorite among all teams remaining? Anyone who thinks so will find an arbitrage opportunity in Las Vegas right now.

User name checks out?

 

[Kamiccolo]

Pretty crazy most people dont have the Leafs on these lists very high. I get that the perception was their defense sucks but anyone watching the games can't claim that(They've overall been better than the Bruins). I also think there are only maybe 1 or 2 other series where a winning team can say they had a harder opponent.

If the Leafs win, they face CBJ in the 2nd round. To me, insanity that someone has them over the Leafs. If they can win, and that's a big if only up 1 game, they should be poised to go deep given some of the names that have dropped out. At least in my mind.

Yet for many, people keep the Leafs the same level and just slide up worse teams claiming they are better in the playoffs or something impossible to prove. I guess that's just part of forcing people to respect them (like how it took 3 years and still there are people claiming they'll miss the playoffs but at least most people accept they are a playoff team).

 

[Negan4Coach]

Tampa.

They will grow strong from this round. Win 4 straight now and rest a walk in a park in comparison.

Lulz

 

[Negan4Coach]

Toronto absolutely has the talent to do it and currently has a 2-1 lead on a team that a lot of people in this thread have said would be the next favourite after Tampa. They definitely have a case.

AAAAAAAAAAAAA You're succumbing to recency bias. RECENCY BIAS, DAMN YOU!!

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Don't want to say because i do not want to jinx the team i want to see win.
That said i do not see anyone in the west winning, not good enough goalies in the west.