Who do you consider Cup favorites now?

[Anaheim4ever]

Columbus - Vegas final

Oh man that would be awesome series the battle of:
In that scenario i want the Jackets to win big time, Vegas didn't have to go thru the pain of a mediocre expansion draft in an era that had less parity that the Jackets, Lightning & Ducks had to go thru when entering the league.
Jackets must win the cup before Vegas gets the cup. Hopefully Seattle doesn't make the playoffs in year 1.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm claiming that three games do not constitute a sufficient sample size to proclaim Columbus to be "the" favorite to win the 2019 Stanley Cup, and that any person doing so is placing far more weight upon these three games than is reasonably warranted.

The difference between Columbus and the 2nd best team in the entire league after Tampa was 9 points.
They were tied for 6th in the league in wins and ROW, just two off of 3rd in the league in both categories.
They added multiple significant impact players at the deadline, so we know their full season point totals are not representative of the current quality of the team.
After a rough patch with a bunch of new players (common), they secured a playoff spot at the end of the year with a great run, going 7-1 in their last 8 games, with 3 shutouts, while outscoring their opponents 35-14.
They are now up 3-0 in the series against one of the best teams in the history of the NHL, outscoring them 12-5.

It's a bigger sample size than 3 games, and context matters. Maybe you're not placing enough weight on what we've seen. It's not unreasonable to have Columbus as the favourite, especially with how wide open the playoffs are this year.

 

[Edgy]

What? No. In no universe is this statement true.

If you're even bringing this to the discussion as an option, thehn you need to go back and read the entire body of work until you've changed your opinion.

Of course it does, you can't attribute so much weight to the odds of being the favorite to win the cup based on regular season performance and then brush aside the increased odds of the team that defeats them in the playoffs as recent bias. That's both contradictory and biased.

If anything, playoffs performance heavily outweighs the regular season just due to the fact that it's a do or die best of 7 game series, as opposed to 82 games where you have more time to adjust and recover or even sneak in as the wildcard. By taking a 3-0 over the Lightning, CBJ have increased their odds as a favorite to win the cup and Tampa's chances have drastically fallen.

So there is no recency bias since that recent performance is all that matters right now.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Tampa was the only team I was scared of for the Leafs in the East.

Well that's just foolish.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

So there is no recency bias since that recent performance is all that matters right now.

You're conflating things that have happened recently ("Columbus has a 3-games-to-0 lead in their series and therefore has a great chance to advance in the playoffs") with future events ("Columbus is the odds-on favorite to win the Stanley Cup because they have a 3-games-to-0 lead in their first-round series"). Recency bias (obviously?) doesn't impact the former, but absolutely impacts the latter.

Anyhow, you guys win - I honestly didn't think we'd still be doing this, and I'm moving on.

 

[Kranix]

Columbus

 

[Edgy]

You're conflating things that have happened recently ("Columbus has a 3-games-to-0 lead in their series and therefore has a great chance to advance in the playoffs") with future events ("Columbus is the odds-on favorite to win the Stanley Cup because they have a 3-games-to-0 lead in their first-round series"). Recency bias (obviously?) doesn't impact the former, but absolutely impacts the latter.

Anyhow, you guys win - I honestly didn't think we'd still be doing this, and I'm moving on.

As opposed to Tampa has the best regular season record (past events) and thus has a great chance of winning the cup (future events)?

Like I said, you're using different standards judging your own argument than the ones you use to judge the counter argument.

 

[Viqsi]

In your next post you agree with a poster saying “bias isn’t necessarily a bad thing,” but in this post say it’s “an issue.”

Um. No. My point wasn't "bias isn't a bad thing"; it was a little more nuanced than that. More like "being biased doesn't imply you're 100% wrong; sometimes all you're doing is just going a little too far". I made that point because we were seeing counterarguments of "but of course the Jackets are really competitive", which is fair and true - but the question was about the favorite, which is a tad beyond merely being among the best. Recency bias in that case isn't about whether or not the Jackets' chances are much better than most folks gave them credit for - it's the part where one, given recognition of said fact, subsequently jumps to the conclusion (without other supporting evidence) that the Jackets are the favorite. "Among the best " != "THE best".

* * *​

The difference between Columbus and the 2nd best team in the entire league after Tampa was 9 points.
They were tied for 6th in the league in wins and ROW, just two off of 3rd in the league in both categories.
They added multiple significant impact players at the deadline, so we know their full season point totals are not representative of the current quality of the team.
After a rough patch with a bunch of new players (common), they secured a playoff spot at the end of the year with a great run, going 7-1 in their last 8 games, with 3 shutouts, while outscoring their opponents 35-14.
They are now up 3-0 in the series against one of the best teams in the history of the NHL, outscoring them 12-5.

It's a bigger sample size than 3 games, and context matters. Maybe you're not placing enough weight on what we've seen. It's not unreasonable to have Columbus as the favourite, especially with how wide open the playoffs are this year.

I think this is also a fair argument. I'm still not sure if that's appropriately weighted (I sure as heck would love to believe we're charging all the way to the Cup ), but at that point it's at least a reasonable debate.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I have to say Vegas. Columbus has been good, but Vegas has been completely dominant.

 

[Bruin]

Pretty crazy most people dont have the Leafs on these lists very high. I get that the perception was their defense sucks but anyone watching the games can't claim that(They've overall been better than the Bruins). I also think there are only maybe 1 or 2 other series where a winning team can say they had a harder opponent.

If the Leafs win, they face CBJ in the 2nd round. To me, insanity that someone has them over the Leafs. If they can win, and that's a big if only up 1 game, they should be poised to go deep given some of the names that have dropped out. At least in my mind.

Yet for many, people keep the Leafs the same level and just slide up worse teams claiming they are better in the playoffs or something impossible to prove. I guess that's just part of forcing people to respect them (like how it took 3 years and still there are people claiming they'll miss the playoffs but at least most people accept they are a playoff team).

They just pounded the best team in the NHL into submission, whomever faces them in the next round will more than have their hands full. To say that Toronto is better than they are just plain homerism.

 

[Kamiccolo]

They just pounded the best team in the NHL into submission, whomever faces them in the next round will more than have their hands full. To say that Toronto is better than they are just plain homerism.

That's just not how things work. Some teams own certain teams, and they get owned by other teams. If Team A > Team B, and Team C > Team A, that =/= Team C > B

 

[End on a Hinote]

If the Leafs get past Boston I think it looks really good for them to come out of the East.

 

[miscs75]

If the Leafs get past Boston I think it looks really good for them to come out of the East.

Isles vs Leafs would be an absolute blood bath but an amazing story for the conference final. The Leafs would have to figure out how to stop CBJ who’s absolutely rolling and Bob is playing lights out.

 

[BigT2002]

Fishsticks v. Leafs for ECF

Vegas v STL for WCF

Vegas v. Fishsticks

Fishsticks

Spoiled ass expansion team

 

[Tak7]

If you're any of the teams surviving in the East, you have to feel pretty good about yourself, no ?

Tampa and Pittsburgh both out.

One of Toronto/Boston also going home.

All of a sudden, the Eastern Conference looks wide open and primed for someone to go on a hell of an unexpected run.

 

[End on a Hinote]

Isles vs Leafs would be an absolute blood bath but an amazing story for the conference final. The Leafs would have to figure out how to stop CBJ who’s absolutely rolling and Bob is playing lights out.

Would love to light that fire they had during the 2002 playoffs. One of the best first round series in history.

CBJ are by no means a pushover obviously, but I dont know if they can carry it over against teams like TO, Boston or Washington. But I've been wrong before.

 

[miscs75]

Would love to light that fire they had during the 2002 playoffs. One of the best first round series in history.

CBJ are by no means a pushover obviously, but I dont know if they can carry it over against teams like TO, Boston or Washington. But I've been wrong before.

I was at that series. This year was the loudest I’ve heard the coliseum since the Shawn Bates goal. If the Isles play the Leafs for the ECF, I don’t think the Leafs skill can break through the Isles team defense. They have the same amount of high end firepower as Pittsburgh with as shaky as a blueline and slightly better goaltending.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

shortlist,
jackets, winner of leafs/bruins and vegas. I wanna say isles but 3 teams from the east are too many.

 

[Linnie The Pooh]

First off, I am not going to put the Cup in the hands of Columbus just because of 4 games even if it was against Tampa. It was just 4 games and yes they looked really good, but they have to do more than that. Those 4 games isn't going to wash the fact that before that they have never won a playoff series before in franchise history. So I am not picking them as the favorites out of the East. Even before Tampa lost while filling out my bracket I had them losing to Toronto in the 2nd Round anyway and I also had Pittsburgh losing to the Islanders in the 1st Round but not by a sweep. So that leaves my favorites out of the East either being Washington, NY Islanders, or Toronto. Going into the playoffs I always have the mindset that the team with the Cup which is Washington has to be dethroned. Now I still think things are going to be difficult for them, but with Tampa out it seems to be easier. Any of the teams though I mentioned that I see making it the 2nd round could spoil my East prediction.

Now for the West. I was never high on Calgary all season and especially the beginning of the season because most of us probably didn't even think they would be that good. Colorado though I thought had a great young offense and they do. The two teams as I really can't narrow it down although I did pick Nashville to go to the Stanley Cup Finals over Vegas, I think either Vegas or Nashville could be there.

So Washington out of the East and Nashville/Vegas out of the West. That is the best I can do. I am probably totally wrong.

 

[BmxHockey]

Vegas is Winning the cup, they play heavy and fast hockey, have a mobile D and the only team that can’t stop them is Columbus who plays the same way. Dark horse out of the east is NYI. They’re past belief and they now know. They know they can win now. They have a coach that knows he can win now.... and Vegas is winning the cup.

 

[MoreOrr]

The Caps and Vegas......but with such parity....really anything is possible.....

Really, that's the beauty of the NHL these days.

 

[MoreOrr]

Isles vs Leafs would be an absolute blood bath but an amazing story for the conference final. The Leafs would have to figure out how to stop CBJ who’s absolutely rolling and Bob is playing lights out.

I'm not seeing the Islanders getting much love in this thread. I wouldn't count them out from having a chance to go far. But really, with Tampa out, it's any team's Cup to win (which it was nevertheless), but the Capitals have to be the slight favorites since they are at least the reigning champs until they're dethroned.

 

[c9777666]

If BOS gets by TOR, it’s their Cup to lose.

Unless CGY comes back from 3-1, they may have home ice advantage the rest of the playoffs.

 

[miscs75]

I'm not seeing the Islanders getting much love in this thread. I wouldn't count them out from having a chance to go far. But really, with Tamps out, it's any team's Cup to win (which it was nevertheless), but the Capitals have to be the slight favorites since they are at least the reigning champs until they're dethroned.

I'm an Isles fan and I want it to happen just to prove that to the hockey world and the analysts who still doubt them. If the Isles play the Leafs in the ECF, I can see the games being more similar to the first game the two teams played together where Barzal just went on a roll.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

They just pounded the best team in the NHL into submission, whomever faces them in the next round will more than have their hands full. To say that Toronto is better than they are just plain homerism.

We both know it's all about matchups. Some teams matchup better to others. Columbus was a bad matchup for Tampa.