Where does Albert Pujols rank among all-time greats?

Perennial

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Some of the elite hitters of the last 30 years and how old they were when they posted their final season with an OPS above .800...

Votto 34
Puckett 35 (forced to retire that season)
Cabrera 35
Bagwell 36
Boggs 37
Delgado 37
Griffey 37
Helton 37
Piazza 38
Walker 38
McGriff 38
Manny 38
Ripken 38
Thomas 39
A-Rod 39
Rickey Henderson 40
Sheffield 40
Edgar 40
Thome 40
Gwynn 41
David Ortiz posted a 1.021 OPS in his final season as a 40 year old...
And Bonds posted a 1.045 OPS at 42 in his final season...

Elite hitters don't typically see a drastic decline in their production in their early 30's...

Even Paul Konerko posted an .857 OPS at age 36...

So, considering Pujols' production curve is more in line with a player who is 3 - 5 years older, it's certainly fair to wonder whether there's any truth to those rumours about his age...
 
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Perennial

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38 games isn't much of a sample size. Give him a full season in 2018 and my money is his final numbers look more like 2019 than they do 2016.

Pujols' decline isn't really unusual. Lots and lots of great players decline pretty quickly after turning 30.

Interestingly, I see Major League Baseball is still spreading myths about career RBI totals, though this blurb actually covers the discrepancy. Why does anyone still listen to Elias?

38 games is about 1/4 of a season, and in that period Cabrera hit .299, with an OBP of .395, and an OPS of .843... so what's your reasoning for why he wouldn't have sustained that production for the remainder of the season?

Since 2012, did Pujols ever have a 38 game stretch where he posted an OPS of at least .843?


Name some of these all-time great hitters who declined so quickly in their early 30's...
 
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BigBadBruins7708

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Some of the elite hitters of the last 30 years and how old they were when they posted their final season with an OPS above .800...

Votto 34
Cabrera 35
Bagwell 36
Boggs 37
Griffey 37
Helton 37
Piazza 38
Walker 38
McGriff 38
Manny 38
Thomas 39
A-Rod 39
Rickey Henderson 40
Sheffield 40
Edgar 40
Thome 40
Gwynn 41
David Ortiz posted a 1.021 OPS in his final season as a 40 year old...
And Bonds posted a 1.045 OPS at 42 in his final season...

Elite hitters don't typically see a drastic decline in their production in their early 30's...

Even Paul Konerko posted an .857 OPS at age 36...

So, considering Pujols' production curve is more in line with a player who is 3 - 5 years older, it's certainly fair to wonder whether there's any truth to those rumours about his age...

some more wood for that fire...

Chipper Jones, played to 40 with 0 seasons below .800
Beltran 39
Guerrero 36
Luis Gonzalez 37
Abreu 35
Hunter 37
Encarnacion 36 (37 this season, currently below 800)
Nelson Cruz, played to 39 never below 800
Berkman 36
 
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Perennial

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Has there been a Hall of Famer in the last 40 years who didn't post an OPS above .800 after the age of 32?

The only one I can think of would be Ozzie Smith, who somehow managed to post a .747 OPS at age 36...

Pujols hasn't beaten that mark since his age 36 season when he posted a .780 OPS...

And if you bring OPS+ into it...

Pujols was 36 the last time he posted an OPS+ above 100

Ozzie Smith was 37...
 

Cas

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15 July - 31 August 2012 - Pujols batted .336/.386/.717 with 13 doubles and 15 home runs across 166 plate appearances in 38 games.
9 June - 25 July 2013 - Pujols batted .288/.363/.484 with 6 doubles and 8 home runs across 171 plate appearances in 38 games.
31 March - 13 May 2014 - Pujols batted .260/.327/.513 with 9 doubles and 10 home runs across 171 plate appearances in 38 games.
3 May - 14 June 2015 - Pujols batted .311/.344/.629 with 6 doubles and 14 home runs across 160 plate appearances in 38 games.
17 July - 28 August 2016 - Pujols batted .298/.325/.523 with 4 doubles and 10 home runs across 160 plate appearances in 38 games.

As best as I can tell, he hasn't done it since, topping out at .750 in 2017, .806 in 2018, and .739 in 2019. Of course, Pujols is 3 years older than Miguel Cabrera.

As for all-time great hitters who declined quickly in their early 30's:

Jimmie Foxx - Declined rapidly year-over-year after age 31, essentially done after age 33.
Dick Allen - Essentially done after age 32, save for a decent half-season at age 34.
Duke Snider - Finished as a starter after age 32 save for one season at age 36. Continued to hit well from 33-35, perhaps because he faced left-handed pitchers only 38 times in three seasons (747 total PA).
Vladimir Guerrero - Finished as an elite hitter after age 33, continued to hit at a modestly above-average rate for two seasons.
Carl Yastrzemski - Last truly elite season as a hitter was at age 30 - had two resurgent seasons at 33-34, but was otherwise a merely-above-average to mediocre hitter from age 31 onwards.
Eddie Mathews - Finished as an elite hitter at age 31. Remained above-average for four more seasons.
Ernie Banks - Finished as an elite hitter after age 29. Remained an average to above-average hitter until age 37.
Cal Ripken - Not so much an elite hitter overall, though he probably had the talent to be, finished as an above-average hitter at all after age 30 except for a half-season at age 38. Take a day off!
Todd Helton - Lost his power after age 30. Could occasionally hit for average and could always work a walk, but occasionally reaching a 130 OPS+ as a first baseman isn't elite.
Miguel Cabrera - Essentially done after age 33, barring an extraordinarily-unlikely resurgence.
Albert Belle - Finished as a baseball player after age 33, as an elite hitter after age 32.
Ralph Kiner - Elite through age 28, out of baseball at 33.

Possible arguments:

Mel Ott - Hard to say, because he platooned himself after age 33 and was facing wartime competition. As soon as the war ended, he disappeared at age 37.
Mickey Mantle - He was still an elite hitter after age 32, but no one thought so at the time. His ability to hit for average cratered (in conjunction with the second deadball era), but he could still work a walk.
Ken Griffey Jr. - Could still hit well, but finished as an elite hitter after age 30.
Jeff Bagwell - Suffered a slow decline from age 31. Never really hit a cliff, just kept getting worse every season.
 

Perennial

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some more wood for that fire...

Chipper Jones, played to 40 with 0 seasons below .800
Beltran 39
Guerrero 36
Luis Gonzalez 37
Abreu 35
Hunter 37
Encarnacion 36 (37 this season, currently below 800)
Nelson Cruz, played to 39 never below 800
Berkman 36

Utley 34
Bonilla 34
David Justice 34 (.961)
Sosa 35
Guerrero 35
Bichette 36
Larkin 36
Paul O'Neill 36
Tino Martinez 36
Giles 37
McGwire 37
Lofton 38
Beltre 38
Biggio 38
Palmeiro 38 (posted a .796 at 39, and a .786 at 40)
Kent 39
Moises Alou 40
Galarraga 42


But Pujols - one of the greatest hitters of all-time - who was healthy enough to have averaged 138 games per season from 2013 - 2019, wasn't able to post an OPS above .800...

It really does beg the question... why?
 
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Perennial

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15 July - 31 August 2012 - Pujols batted .336/.386/.717 with 13 doubles and 15 home runs across 166 plate appearances in 38 games.
9 June - 25 July 2013 - Pujols batted .288/.363/.484 with 6 doubles and 8 home runs across 171 plate appearances in 38 games.
31 March - 13 May 2014 - Pujols batted .260/.327/.513 with 9 doubles and 10 home runs across 171 plate appearances in 38 games.
3 May - 14 June 2015 - Pujols batted .311/.344/.629 with 6 doubles and 14 home runs across 160 plate appearances in 38 games.
17 July - 28 August 2016 - Pujols batted .298/.325/.523 with 4 doubles and 10 home runs across 160 plate appearances in 38 games.

As best as I can tell, he hasn't done it since, topping out at .750 in 2017, .806 in 2018, and .739 in 2019. Of course, Pujols is 3 years older than Miguel Cabrera.

As for all-time great hitters who declined quickly in their early 30's:

Jimmie Foxx - Declined rapidly year-over-year after age 31, essentially done after age 33.
Dick Allen - Essentially done after age 32, save for a decent half-season at age 34.
Duke Snider - Finished as a starter after age 32 save for one season at age 36. Continued to hit well from 33-35, perhaps because he faced left-handed pitchers only 38 times in three seasons (747 total PA).
Vladimir Guerrero - Finished as an elite hitter after age 33, continued to hit at a modestly above-average rate for two seasons.
Carl Yastrzemski - Last truly elite season as a hitter was at age 30 - had two resurgent seasons at 33-34, but was otherwise a merely-above-average to mediocre hitter from age 31 onwards.
Eddie Mathews - Finished as an elite hitter at age 31. Remained above-average for four more seasons.
Ernie Banks - Finished as an elite hitter after age 29. Remained an average to above-average hitter until age 37.
Cal Ripken - Not so much an elite hitter overall, though he probably had the talent to be, finished as an above-average hitter at all after age 30 except for a half-season at age 38. Take a day off!
Todd Helton - Lost his power after age 30. Could occasionally hit for average and could always work a walk, but occasionally reaching a 130 OPS+ as a first baseman isn't elite.
Miguel Cabrera - Essentially done after age 33, barring an extraordinarily-unlikely resurgence.
Albert Belle - Finished as a baseball player after age 33, as an elite hitter after age 32.
Ralph Kiner - Elite through age 28, out of baseball at 33.

Possible arguments:

Mel Ott - Hard to say, because he platooned himself after age 33 and was facing wartime competition. As soon as the war ended, he disappeared at age 37.
Mickey Mantle - He was still an elite hitter after age 32, but no one thought so at the time. His ability to hit for average cratered (in conjunction with the second deadball era), but he could still work a walk.
Ken Griffey Jr. - Could still hit well, but finished as an elite hitter after age 30.
Jeff Bagwell - Suffered a slow decline from age 31. Never really hit a cliff, just kept getting worse every season.

With the advancements in training, nutrition and medical care, I think we have to put an asterisk next to anyone who played 40+ years ago... as they just didn't have the advantages that modern players have that lead to longer careers... not to mention many players from back in the day were alcoholics and/or heavy smokers who took years off their lives, never mind their careers...


Some of the modern players you listed simply don't qualify as having had a decline on par or close to that of Pujols'...

Bagwell hit .281 with a .387 OBP, and a .907 OPS from the age of 33 - 36... that's still producing at an all-star level

Belle still managed to post an OPS above .800 in his final season as a 33 year old, despite battling a degenerative hip condition which ended his career

Griffey was cursed with injuries from age 32 - 34, averaging 69 games played per season, and never more than 83... despite those injuries, he still posted an .858 OPS during those 3 seasons

In '99, a 38 year old Ripken hit .340 with a .952 OPS in 86 games... however, as you said, he was never an elite hitter, and even during his prime he had multiple seasons where his OPS dipped below .800

Helton, from age 33 - 37, hit .299, with a .402 OBP, and an .852 OPS

Yazstremski had an .877 OPS at the age of 37, an OPS above .800 as a 40 year old, and had a .789 OPS in 131 games at the age of 42


For comparison sake, here are Pujols' stats from 33 - 37...

.257 AVG, .313 OBP, .759 OPS

That drop in OBP is spectacular considering he posted an OBP of .426 over his first 10 seasons...
 
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Quid Pro Clowe

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Ummm, that's kinda his point...
The point here is null. You're splitting hairs because Pujols' last season at or above the arbitrary number of .800 ops was at age 32 despite posting numbers relatively close to that clip from ages 33-36 (.767/.790/.787/.780).

Cherry picked stats because the original point of Pujols' age is nothing but speculation.
 
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Cas

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The point here is null. You're splitting hairs because Pujols' last season at or above the arbitrary number of .800 ops was at age 32 despite posting numbers relatively close to that clip from ages 33-36 (.767/.790/.787/.780).

Cherry picked stats because the original point of Pujols' age is nothing but speculation.

Never mind that you should never use non-normalized stats for that kind of comparison.
 
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bleedblue1223

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Pujols' OPS dropped from 1.011 at age 30, down to .859 during his age 32 season... and that was the last time he posted an OPS above .800

So by 33 - which is not that old - he wasn't close to hitting at an elite level...
33 is plenty old enough to see that type of decline for someone of his injury history...

You keep ignoring injuries as a way to prove he lied about his age. This is just dumb.
 

Perennial

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Now post a list of how many of them were perennial all-stars from age 21-30.

Or do stats only work one way??

The fact that Pujols put up the stats he did as a 21 year old rookie, only lends to the theory that he's older than his listed age...

Has a 21 year old ever posted an OPS above 1.00? Let alone as a rookie...

Judge was 25 during his impressive rookie season

McGwire was 23 during his 49 HR rookie year

Piazza was 24 when he burst onto the scene

Bonds posted a .746 OPS in 113 games as a 21 year old rookie


At quick glance, the only rookie aged 21 or younger to post an OPS above 1.00 was Ted Williams, who accomplished the feat as a 20 year old...

And here's a fun fact...

From the age of 33 - 41, Williams hit .340 with a .478 OBP, and a 1.113 OPS (these averages include his age 40 season in which he hit .254 with an OPS of .791)

Williams - who turned 43 in August of that year - hit .316 with a .451 OBP, and a 1.096 OPS in his last season...
 

Mickey Marner

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You should at least use OPS+ to account for ballpark differences.

For example,

Puhols 2014 .790 OPS
Utley 2013 .823 OPS
Fielder 2015 .841 OPS

All had an OPS+ of 126
 
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Quid Pro Clowe

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The fact that Pujols put up the stats he did as a 21 year old rookie, only lends to the theory that he's older than his listed age...

Has a 21 year old ever posted an OPS above 1.00? Let alone as a rookie...

Judge was 25 during his impressive rookie season

McGwire was 23 during his 49 HR rookie year

Piazza was 24 when he burst onto the scene

Bonds posted a .746 OPS in 113 games as a 21 year old rookie


At quick glance, the only rookie aged 21 or younger to post an OPS above 1.00 was Ted Williams, who accomplished the feat as a 20 year old...

And here's a fun fact...

From the age of 33 - 41, Williams hit .340 with a .478 OBP, and a 1.113 OPS (these averages include his age 40 season in which he hit .254 with an OPS of .791)

Williams - who turned 43 in August of that year - hit .316 with a .451 OBP, and a 1.096 OPS in his last season...
People can be outliers, man. Not everyone's arch is the same.
 

Cas

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The fact that Pujols put up the stats he did as a 21 year old rookie, only lends to the theory that he's older than his listed age...

Has a 21 year old ever posted an OPS above 1.00? Let alone as a rookie...

Judge was 25 during his impressive rookie season

McGwire was 23 during his 49 HR rookie year

Piazza was 24 when he burst onto the scene

Bonds posted a .746 OPS in 113 games as a 21 year old rookie


At quick glance, the only rookie aged 21 or younger to post an OPS above 1.00 was Ted Williams, who accomplished the feat as a 20 year old...

And here's a fun fact...

From the age of 33 - 41, Williams hit .340 with a .478 OBP, and a 1.113 OPS (these averages include his age 40 season in which he hit .254 with an OPS of .791)

Williams - who turned 43 in August of that year - hit .316 with a .451 OBP, and a 1.096 OPS in his last season...

Arguing that Pujols' performance is rare to unheard of isn't really convincing, because of the obvious issue that Albert Pujols was freakishly good (which is indisputably true regardless of his age).

Incidentally, Pujols doesn't even have one of the ten best OPS+ at age 21, and multiple batters were just as good at 20.
 

Perennial

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33 is plenty old enough to see that type of decline for someone of his injury history...

From Pujols' Wikipedia page:
On August 19, 2013, Pujols was ruled out for the remainder of the 2013 season after suffering a foot injury. Pujols had by far the worst season of his career in 2013, failing to play at least 100 games for the first time in his career. Pujols also posted career worsts in hits, runs scored, doubles, home runs, RBI, walks, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. Overall in 99 games, Pujols batted .258 with 101 hits, 19 doubles, 17 home runs, 64 RBI, and 49 runs scored.

Was his foot bothering him all season? If so, that could explain the decline in production...

But from 2014 - 2017, Pujols averaged 154 games played per season, so he was healthy enough to play in most of the games...
 

bleedblue1223

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From Pujols' Wikipedia page:
On August 19, 2013, Pujols was ruled out for the remainder of the 2013 season after suffering a foot injury. Pujols had by far the worst season of his career in 2013, failing to play at least 100 games for the first time in his career. Pujols also posted career worsts in hits, runs scored, doubles, home runs, RBI, walks, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. Overall in 99 games, Pujols batted .258 with 101 hits, 19 doubles, 17 home runs, 64 RBI, and 49 runs scored.

Was his foot bothering him all season? If so, that could explain the decline in production...

But from 2014 - 2017, Pujols averaged 154 games played per season, so he was healthy enough to play in most of the games...
He played through a ton of injuries in St. Louis, plantar fasciitis started pretty early, that's why he went from someone that would run out every play, to one that wouldn't. He had wrist and elbow issues that affected his power. He then developed an assortment of lower-body issues, likely stemming from dealing with plantar fasciitis for so long. The plantar fasciitis started as early as 2004 I think. He could've had Tommy John surgery on his elbow, but they opted against it and that's part of the reason he moved to 1st. It's amazing the numbers that he put up in that stretch and how often he played considering how banged up he was at times and how often he needed cortisone shots to get through the pain.
 

Perennial

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Arguing that Pujols' performance is rare to unheard of isn't really convincing, because of the obvious issue that Albert Pujols was freakishly good (which is indisputably true regardless of his age).

Incidentally, Pujols doesn't even have one of the ten best OPS+ at age 21, and multiple batters were just as good at 20.

According to Baseball Reference, the only players aged 21 or younger to post an OPS higher than 1.00 were Williams, Ott, Matthews, Foxx, A-Rod, and Pujols... and none of them besides Williams and Pujols were rookies

Foxx and Ott actually made their MLB debuts as 17 year olds, A-Rod at 18...

Matthews and Williams were 20 in their first season...
 

Perennial

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He played through a ton of injuries in St. Louis, plantar fasciitis started pretty early, that's why he went from someone that would run out every play, to one that wouldn't. He had wrist and elbow issues that affected his power. He then developed an assortment of lower-body issues, likely stemming from dealing with plantar fasciitis for so long. The plantar fasciitis started as early as 2004 I think. He could've had Tommy John surgery on his elbow, but they opted against it and that's part of the reason he moved to 1st. It's amazing the numbers that he put up in that stretch and how often he played considering how banged up he was at times and how often he needed cortisone shots to get through the pain.

So, if he was able to put up elite numbers despite those injuries you listed, why the sudden decline in production?
 

bleedblue1223

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So, if he was able to put up elite numbers despite those injuries you listed, why the sudden decline in production?
Because injuries build up and get worse over time. Look I get it, you are convinced he lied about his age, and my take is the evidence you are using is extremely flimsy. Not much else we can go from here.
 

bleedblue1223

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According to Baseball Reference, the only players aged 21 or younger to post an OPS higher than 1.00 were Williams, Ott, Matthews, Foxx, A-Rod, and Pujols... and none of them besides Williams and Pujols were rookies

Foxx and Ott actually made their MLB debuts as 17 year olds, A-Rod at 18...

Matthews and Williams were 20 in their first season...
That's why we used OPS+, it's normalized for ballparks.
 

Perennial

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Because injuries build up and get worse over time. Look I get it, you are convinced he lied about his age, and my take is the evidence you are using is extremely flimsy. Not much else we can go from here.

I wouldn't go as far as to say I'm convinced he lied about his age...

I suspect Pujols is older than he claims, but all the evidence pointing that way is entirely circumstantial...
 

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