When will Matthews win his first Rocket?

[Oilers Propagandist]

A part.

They’re important, winning faceoffs establish possession. Whether you do anything good with the puck is a different convo.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

You never know but what we all know is that he didn't hit 50.


FACT: Leon is a 50 goal scorer, something Auston has yet to accomplish.
FACT: I said Auston matthews will be a contender for the trophy like he has been for the past couple of seasons. No clue how that is flawed in any way lmao

Fact: Less goals in more games played with more ice time and finished behind 3/4 years.

Opinion: Not "better".

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Its impossible to predict.

Ovi is the only one I will say WILL win.

Can win
Draisaitl
Matthews
Laine
Pastrnak
Svechnikov
Pete
Kane ?
Mac?
MCD ?
Sid?
Stamkos ?
Debrincat ?
Caufield ?

Aho should be considered a candidate. Not very likely in my opinion, but possible. He had 38 goals in 68 games this year (46 goal pace), is only 23 and has increased his goals scored every season.

 

[Kranix]

When Ovechkin's son retires.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Yes he played some this season. Not sure anywhere near enough to vault him into "top centre" conversations. By the by, I am saying this because it''s the exact argument used against Leaf players for years. I like consistency. He becomes a centre 80%+ of the time, fair game.

Draisaitl played 484:09 at 5on5 away from McDavid. He played 553:21 with him. So at the very least, he played roughly 45-ish% of his time as a center on his own line, and when he did play with McDavid the two basically interchanged roles. And on the PP, Draisaitl plays the "center" role by taking all the draws.

So I'm not sure why he wouldn't be considered a center. It's no different than when Stamkos got a lot of time on the wing next to Point and Kucherov. Doesn't make Stamkos any less of a center.

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

Fact: Less goals in more games played with more ice time and finished behind 3/4 years.

Opinion: Not "better".

I would take a 50goal/50+assist season by draisaitl over anything Matthews has accomplished, never mind this past season. Leon’s development has been progressing into what it is right now and as the time foes on Drai will catch up with Auston in goals. In m yopinion of course.
With the Noog - Drai - Yams line acting like the best line in the world since the new year, Draisaitl had a chance to catch up.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

2025

 

[Varan]

It's strange how you're not pushing your ES/60 production angle right now. You were always quick to use that as your "proof" before because it had "proper context". It couldn't be because Matthews had a lower ES goals/60 last year than Ovechkin, can it?

Because the narrative has shifted to the power play now. Now we use PP TOI/GP to assess goal-scoring abilities

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Such as?

Drai and Pasta

 

[Varan]

Drai and Pasta

Don't forget MacK or McJesus

 

[Dekes For Days]

How much longer are you going to hold PP time against other players

In a discussion about projecting future goal results, including a side discussion about the quality of goal-scorer Matthews is compared to past goal-scorers, PP TOI is important context to consider, because it can create incorrect conclusions if all you are looking at is raw goals. Discussing it's impact is not holding anything against anybody.

 

[Varan]

In a discussion about projecting future goal results, including a side discussion about the quality of goal-scorer Matthews is compared to past goal-scorers, PP TOI is important context to consider, because it can create incorrect conclusions if all you are looking at is raw goals. Discussing it's impact is not holding anything against anybody.

Well, look at the thread you're posting in. A thread about the Rocket. Not a thread about "who scores the most goals if everyone got the same amount of PP time". It's literally about a trophy awarded to the player who scores the most goals and when (or if) Matthews will do it. Not how he does it.

Convenient how you did not quote the rest of my initial post.

 

[Mrb1p]

Aho should be considered a candidate. Not very likely in my opinion, but possible. He had 38 goals in 68 games this year (46 goal pace), is only 23 and has increased his goals scored every season.

I think Svechnikov will score the brunt of the goals from now on

 

[Varan]

Asking for the same amount of PP time, ES time, is nonsensical because there are too many variables in play for everyone to have the same amount of ice time. It will never happen, so there is no point of thinking about it.

This thread is asking when (or if) Matthews will win the Richard. If he wins, no one cares how he does it. I swear to the people of this board that if Matthews wins the Richard, you will never hear anything about P/60 or PP time or EN goals or whatever excuse they used for him not winning the award. And if people try to clap back and use the same excuses for their own player not winning it, Matthews fans will dismiss it and say "he's just better"

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's strange how you're not pushing your ES/60 production angle right now. You were always quick to use that as your "proof" before because it had "proper context". It couldn't be because Matthews had a lower ES goals/60 last year than Ovechkin, can it?

I've consistently looked at both ES and PP. A player's goal-scoring potential is a combination of how good they are at both.

I've also consistently looked at significant samples, which you seem to keep forgetting. Ovechkin had a higher ES G/60 last year (ignoring that Matthews played weeks with a broken wrist), but it was a fairly significant jump up from his previous years, and while he did have a good year at ES all things considered, it was boosted by his 6 EN goals and a career-high shooting percentage. And he did not have a great year on the PP. There is less reason to believe Ovechkin will repeat an ES season like that, compared to somebody like Matthews repeating his, especially considering their ages.

 

[Varan]

I've consistently looked at both ES and PP. A player's goal-scoring potential is a combination of how good they are at both.

I've also consistently looked at significant samples, which you seem to keep forgetting. Ovechkin had a higher ES G/60 last year (ignoring that Matthews played weeks with a broken wrist), but it was a fairly significant jump up from his previous years, and while he did have a good year at ES all things considered, it was boosted by his 6 EN goals and a career-high shooting percentage. And he did not have a great year on the PP. There is less reason to believe Ovechkin will repeat an ES season like that, compared to somebody like Matthews repeating his, especially considering their ages.

Or you know, he goes back to the norm by having a good ES and PP season. Matthews is due for a "bad season" in either categories as well, you know that right. Can't just assume he will get better.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Next season. No doubt in my mind.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Or you know, he goes back to the norm by having a good ES and PP season. Matthews is due for a "bad season" in either categories as well, you know that right. Can't just assume he will get better.

He's basically the best even strength goal scorer in the league. Why would that change? The only question is if he can take another step on the PP. A lot of that is team dependent.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I've consistently looked at both ES and PP. A player's goal-scoring potential is a combination of how good they are at both.

I've also consistently looked at significant samples, which you seem to keep forgetting. Ovechkin had a higher ES G/60 last year (ignoring that Matthews played weeks with a broken wrist), but it was a fairly significant jump up from his previous years, and while he did have a good year at ES all things considered, it was boosted by his 6 EN goals and a career-high shooting percentage. And he did not have a great year on the PP. There is less reason to believe Ovechkin will repeat an ES season like that, compared to somebody like Matthews repeating his, especially considering their ages.

Over the past three seasons (2017-18 through 2019-20), Ovechkin leads Matthews in ES Goals/60 with a cumulative 1.62 versus 1.60. Or is 3 seasons not a significant sample size?

It just seems that you're beating the "give him more PP time" drum now because the drum you used to always beat, ES G/60, doesn't paint him as ahead.

 

[Varan]

He's basically the best even strength goal scorer in the league. Why would that change? The only question is if he can take another step on the PP. A lot of that is team dependent.

Bad shooting %, ice-time, being hemmed in your own zone. Many reasons. Not saying it will happen, but it's not set in stone. A down year is always possible

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Bad shooting %, ice-time, being hemmed in your own zone. Many reasons. Not saying it will happen, but it's not set in stone. A down year is always possible

I suppose. It would be an outlier for sure though.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

It’s hard to say. He’s one of those more pure goal scorer types while Drai, McDavid, Crosby, Eichel and even Pastrnak tend to be a goal scorer/play maker combo that can have their goal levels fluctuate more. There’s a few other guys who can also flirt with the 50 goal mark in any year and then of course there’s still Ovechkin who I think has to be the favourite again this year.
I think Matthews gets one in the next five years depending of course on health just like the rest of the competition.

 

[Varan]

I suppose. It would be an outlier for sure though.

Definitely, would not count it happening though.

 

[LeafGrief]

He's the best goalscorer in the league not named Ovechkin since the minute he entered the league. He'll win one sooner or later. Lots of other good players to compete with and you still need things to go right to win major awards, but Matthews is as good as it gets at putting the puck in the net.

He could win one next year, or it could take another four or five years for all the stars to align. But even if he doesn't ever actually win the award, he's the current favourite to score the most goals this decade.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Well, look at the thread you're posting in. A thread about the Rocket. Not a thread about "who scores the most goals if everyone got the same amount of PP time". It's literally about a trophy awarded to the player who scores the most goals and when (or if) Matthews will do it. Not how he does it.

Yes, so first, we look at the quality of goal-scorers we have. Then, we look at the situations they will be in, how they've gotten their goals in recent seasons, and how situations may change.

I'm not going to get into who the best is, but based on the results of last season, most likely consider there to be 3 main contenders: Ovechkin, Pastrnak, and Matthews. Ovechkin is 35, is unlikely to repeat his career-high shooting percentage at ES and career-high EN goals that he had last year, and his PP TOI advantage is more likely to shrink than grow from the 1:07/game he had over Pastrnak and the 1:41/game he had over Matthews last year. Pastrnak is a contender, and he will be in his prime and likely keep his linemate advantage which helps him, but he is injured to start the year, and while more likely than Ovechkin, there are questions of whether he can repeat his career-high SH% on the PP.

Matthews will be entering his prime, so is most likely of these 3 to see the biggest internal improvement. His linemate quality will likely see the biggest improvement over past seasons of the 3 of them. His PP TOI/GP is most likely to see the biggest jump with Keefe for a full year. And his underlying metrics are the most repeatable. It's looking to be a shortened season, and lots can happen in a short season, but there's pretty good reason to think Matthews could win this year (and pretty much every year going forward). He has been pretty underrated as a goal-scorer thus far.