What's Your Prediction for Athanasiou's Future?

[Shaman464]

Every team wants players like AA though. As a depth scorer, he's fantastic. His g/60 numbers are elite, he draws penalties, he can make gamebreaking plays. There's a lot of upside to keeping him around even if he's not a building block. There's also the potential downside of trading him which is that he goes to, say, Vegas and becomes a William Karlsson story.

Actually his goals per 60 last season pretty pedestrian. Between his lack of effort and other teams being more prepared for him, his goal scoring and shooting percentage returned to earth last season. Its funny how as his ice time increased those per 60 stats all that people were pointed to depressed. Him making 4-5 great plays a year isn't game breaking. Its exactly what Nyquist level player do.

 

[Nut Upstrom]

My assumption is that he'll be traded as he's not happy being here and management want more from him than he seems willing to give. I want to see how contract negotiations go before laying out any predictions on when he'll be traded. I know arbitration should prevent a lengthy hold out, but I really want to see how far apart the two sides are before they sit down at the table with the arbitrator. I don't see him getting signed without going to arbitration and that usually means his days with the team are numbered.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Actually his goals per 60 last season pretty pedestrian. Between his lack of effort and other teams being more prepared for him, his goal scoring and shooting percentage returned to earth last season. Its funny how as his ice time increased those per 60 stats all that people were pointed to depressed. Him making 4-5 great plays a year isn't game breaking. Its exactly what Nyquist level player do.

Yeah his x/60 stats declined with increased minutes, showing that he perhaps is simply best as a bottom 6 scorer. Or it could have been a bit of an off-year. I’m a big fan of Nyquist but I see him as someone that fits in easily anywhere and will work well with other players but won’t create a ton out of nowhere. AA is an individualist that can score ~20 goals from the bottom 6 with Glendening, Helm etc as linemates. Gamebreaking is just that; breaking the pattern of a game. AA does that constantly, because he’s that kind of player. It’s valuable. Not ”omg lock him up for life”-valuable, but certainly more valuable than ”eh, move him for a pick..”.

 

[TatarTangle]

AA on several occasions went 13-15 games without a goal or point this season so I'm not really sure it's fair to say his ability to change a game is constant. He is a gamechanger...when he wants to be. Maybe he'll want that more next season, maybe he won't. My bet is on the latter because Blashill won't gift him undeserved ice time over a guy like Bertuzzi who skates his ass off every shift and is proving more useful.

 

[Invictus12]

Lol, times sure changed. Last year, around the same time Holland was an idiot for not throwing money at the guy. This year, most fans can't wait to get rid of him. Patiance is no guarantee of success but holy crap, you run for the door every time things don't go exactly as you want, when you want, you sure as hell not going to get anywhere. I'd rather we keep pushing the guy on being part of the team, That's really his only downfall as far as I see. He might never get it but unless a really sweet deal comes along, why not keep working on something that definitely has a good shot at being fixed?

 

[Shaman464]

Lol, times sure changed. Last year, around the same time Holland was an idiot for not throwing money at the guy. This year, most fans can't wait to get rid of him. Patiance is no guarantee of success but holy crap, you run for the door every time things don't go exactly as you want, when you want, you sure as hell not going to get anywhere. I'd rather we keep pushing the guy on being part of the team, That's really his only downfall as far as I see. He might never get it but unless a really sweet deal comes along, why not keep working on something that definitely has a good shot at being fixed?

The problem here isn't people aren't being patient, but there are a confluence of facts that point to something is wrong. His contract talks, rumors of him not playing the coach's game plan but trying to play his own way, his inability to take responsibility for his place in the lineup and his track record of this behavior added to his shit numbers all point to him being more trouble than he's worth.

 

[Invictus12]

Perhaps but there's a reason why car insurance prices drop once you hit 25. It's well recognized that maturity level jumps up around and past that age. While it is troubling right now, there's also a pretty good chance we get a hell of a player if he matures a bit. It might never happen, sure but the amount of talent the guy has, I'd want to see it happen on this team as oppose to somewhere else.

 

[Nut Upstrom]

Perhaps but there's a reason why car insurance prices drop once you hit 25. It's well recognized that maturity level jumps up around and past that age. While it is troubling right now, there's also a pretty good chance we get a hell of a player if he matures a bit. It might never happen, sure but the amount of talent the guy has, I'd want to see it happen on this team as oppose to somewhere else.

Would be great if that happens, but until it does the kid just does not want to be here and will bolt the second he gets a chance come free agency. May as well get something before then, unless a scenario such as you describe plays out.

 

[Invictus12]

Would be great if that happens, but until it does the kid just does not want to be here and will bolt the second he gets a chance come free agency. May as well get something before then, unless a scenario such as you describe plays out.

A probabilistic scenario sure but, how much are we going to get for him? I guess the question is whether or not we want to take a chance and odds of us getting something significant for him aren't enticing for me personally to say goodbye just yet.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

He will be moved for what feels like a relatively modest return when all is said and done. Coaches in today's game are obsessed with managing risk. They value players who are consistent, make safe decisions and can play within a system, especially further down the lineup. That just isn't AA. Blash has been far from perfect with AA, but I do expect somewhat similar treatment from other coaches outside of the organization further down the road.

 

[jkutswings]

Lol, times sure changed. Last year, around the same time Holland was an idiot for not throwing money at the guy. This year, most fans can't wait to get rid of him. Patiance is no guarantee of success but holy crap, you run for the door every time things don't go exactly as you want, when you want, you sure as hell not going to get anywhere. I'd rather we keep pushing the guy on being part of the team, That's really his only downfall as far as I see. He might never get it but unless a really sweet deal comes along, why not keep working on something that definitely has a good shot at being fixed?

Holland mismanaged the cap, and only had scraps left to nickel and dime AA in the last negotiation.

Then AA continued to show inconsistency and effort problems.

There's no hypocrisy in being frustrated by both of those problems.

 

[Invictus12]

Holland mismanaged the cap, and only had scraps left to nickel and dime AA in the last negotiation.

Then AA continued to show inconsistency and effort problems.

There's no hypocrisy in being frustrated by both of those problems.

It's not hypocrisy I was hinting at. More like impulse control... Everytime we get a shiny young player, we need to dump every veteran that is making just a bit of money or is having a down year. More like, never learning from the same experience over and over.

No one nickled and dime him. He got paid accordingly to what he displayed his worth. Flashy goals aren't worth more than ugly ones. When your lacking on so many simple things in the game, mind you through personal choice and not through lack of ability. On top of that, he's a RFA... What leg did he think he had to stand on exactly? You can call more shots when you actually become the player you can be. Not when you might.

 

[avssuc]

Lol, times sure changed. Last year, around the same time Holland was an idiot for not throwing money at the guy. This year, most fans can't wait to get rid of him.

Wrong. Most were upset that Holland had spent to the cap for rubbish, and seemingly didn't have the cash to re-sign one of their top prospects.

Overpayment (with term) for old trash sucks far more than costly bridges for prospects.

Holland still sucks hard.

 

[masta8]

The problem here isn't people aren't being patient, but there are a confluence of facts that point to something is wrong. His contract talks, rumors of him not playing the coach's game plan but trying to play his own way, his inability to take responsibility for his place in the lineup and his track record of this behavior added to his **** numbers all point to him being more trouble than he's worth.

I don't think you can fault the kid for wanting a fair contract. I know your going to rebuttal that he should have signed before the season started so he could get some exhibition games then yes I agree with you. But if you see guys like Ericsson, Helm and Nielsen plus many more making way more then there value I would not settle for anything less then fair value and the offers the Red Wings were offering were not. Also, I do not understand what you mean by his inability to take responsibility for his place in the line up? Cause if I were him and play two or three solid games then play one poor game and get his ice time cut would ruin anyones confidence. Blashill numerous times had him on different lines and even switched him between center and wing quite often where everyone else had a similar position and line combination most the year. Lastly, the fact you say his numbers weren't very good is misguided. I would say his numbers are not up to par based on his speed and skill but I don't think a guy who averages around 12-15 minutes a game the past two years scoring 34 times as well as other tangibles such as creating more penalties compared to taking penalties. Certainly a player I find is worth more then the trouble you claim.

 

[Shaman464]

I don't think you can fault the kid for wanting a fair contract. I know your going to rebuttal that he should have signed before the season started so he could get some exhibition games then yes I agree with you. But if you see guys like Ericsson, Helm and Nielsen plus many more making way more then there value I would not settle for anything less then fair value and the offers the Red Wings were offering were not. Also, I do not understand what you mean by his inability to take responsibility for his place in the line up? Cause if I were him and play two or three solid games then play one poor game and get his ice time cut would ruin anyones confidence. Blashill numerous times had him on different lines and even switched him between center and wing quite often where everyone else had a similar position and line combination most the year. Lastly, the fact you say his numbers weren't very good is misguided. I would say his numbers are not up to par based on his speed and skill but I don't think a guy who averages around 12-15 minutes a game the past two years scoring 34 times as well as other tangibles such as creating more penalties compared to taking penalties. Certainly a player I find is worth more then the trouble you claim.

First, his goal scoring regressed this last season, in spite of getting more ice time. So, its disingenuous to add the last two years together.

Second, whose been bumped around the lineup like AA? Well first one comes to mind is Larkin. In the last three years he's played on the wing and center, all over the top 3 lines. Mantha and Bert, not being centers, have played up and down the lineup. This is common for kids who aren't elite.

Third, as for his contract, he wanted three million. He's not even scoring at .5 ppg and he wants that much on his first RFA contract? That's not a fair contract, that's ego. He barely played up to the much more conservative contract he was signed to. He poisoned the well by leaving more money on the table by pulling the stunt he pulled. As for the players you brought up? There is a big difference and that's they weren't RFAs. Part of the advantage of RFA status for the team is that they have most of the bargaining chips. UFAs can walk if they don't like the offer they get. RFAs can't do much other than sit and watch their value tank. So if he wanted to make Ericsson money, he should have shown he's half as useful as Ericsson not try to use Russia against the Wings.

Fourth and finally, he is in this very bad situation because of his own actions. Had he taken the one year offer before the season, gone to camp with an attitude that he was going to have a good season and cash in a year later he would likely be fine. But, this year he came in part way through the season, took huge portions of the season off then in his end of seasons comments had the balls to say the only thing holding him back was his usage. At the same time he was one of the worst defensive forwards on the team. His advanced stats all regressed, and even his basic stats regressed. And somehow that's because he played MORE minutes than he did the year prior? Give me a break. His future is in his hands alone, and I have zero faith he has the maturity or the smarts to be anything more than a middle 6 winger who people will always wonder why he never put it together.

 

[masta8]

First, his goal scoring regressed this last season, in spite of getting more ice time. So, its disingenuous to add the last two years together.

Second, whose been bumped around the lineup like AA? Well first one comes to mind is Larkin. In the last three years he's played on the wing and center, all over the top 3 lines. Mantha and Bert, not being centers, have played up and down the lineup. This is common for kids who aren't elite.

Third, as for his contract, he wanted three million. He's not even scoring at .5 ppg and he wants that much on his first RFA contract? That's not a fair contract, that's ego. He barely played up to the much more conservative contract he was signed to. He poisoned the well by leaving more money on the table by pulling the stunt he pulled. As for the players you brought up? There is a big difference and that's they weren't RFAs. Part of the advantage of RFA status for the team is that they have most of the bargaining chips. UFAs can walk if they don't like the offer they get. RFAs can't do much other than sit and watch their value tank. So if he wanted to make Ericsson money, he should have shown he's half as useful as Ericsson not try to use Russia against the Wings.

Fourth and finally, he is in this very bad situation because of his own actions. Had he taken the one year offer before the season, gone to camp with an attitude that he was going to have a good season and cash in a year later he would likely be fine. But, this year he came in part way through the season, took huge portions of the season off then in his end of seasons comments had the balls to say the only thing holding him back was his usage. At the same time he was one of the worst defensive forwards on the team. His advanced stats all regressed, and even his basic stats regressed. And somehow that's because he played MORE minutes than he did the year prior? Give me a break. His future is in his hands alone, and I have zero faith he has the maturity or the smarts to be anything more than a middle 6 winger who people will always wonder why he never put it together.

First, as I have stated in a previous post, AA had a 9% percent shooting percentage this season, compared to a 15 and 17% percentage shooting previous in his first two seasons. To say he is going to continue to regress I think is very debatable, I think he just needs to do a better job capitalizing his chances. Also, his goal scoring went down from 18 to 16 but he still ended up tied for 3rd in goals this year with two guys who played 8 and 11 more games then him (Larkin, Nielsen). Considering the name of the game is too score goals to win I would consider getting rid of one your goal scorers as not a very good decision, especially for a team who was fourth last in goals as a team.

Second, I would not say either Mantha or Bert were remotely close to shifting positions and linemate's as frequently as AA. As soon as Bert had decent chemistry with Z he was with him the rest of the year. If Mantha wasn't on a line with Z, he would have Larkin as his centre.

Third, when did he ask for 3 mil? I do not remember him ever asking for that much but to say he barely played up to his 1.38 million dollar contract is not fair. At 1.38 million and scoring 16 goals and having 33 points, any of the other 30 teams would take that contract in a heartbeat. This season will be much different though because he will have an arbitrator and AA can't high ball and the Red Wings can't low ball. The deal would be done prior to training camp and AA will have a training camp and exhibition games to get his feet wet and work on his defensive game and other aspects of his game he wasn't able to work on last year.

Lastly, you make it seem like AA is the only player in the NHL that is confident in his abilities? If he didn't have confidence in his ability then he likely wouldn't have made it this far in his hockey career. Unfortunately, he made a gamble and bet on himself and he did not have as good a year as us fans hoped. But the fact people are giving up him and wanting him out of town is puzzling. We are not even close to making a playoff spot and our prospect pool at the moment is certainly in the bottom half and we want to get rid of of one of our younger players because he underachieved one season in only his SECOND full season in the NHL. Also, clearly the players on the team enjoy his presence, as on Instagram earlier in the spring he went on a golfing trip with Mantha, Bert and Larkin, and he is always spotted with his teammates joking and smiling on the Red Wings account so maybe his attitude is maybe not as big an issue as you perceive. It doesn't seem like an Evander Kane in Winnipeg situation where the players wanted him out of town....

 

[Shaman464]

First, as I have stated in a previous post, AA had a 9% percent shooting percentage this season, compared to a 15 and 17% percentage shooting previous in his first two seasons. To say he is going to continue to regress I think is very debatable, I think he just needs to do a better job capitalizing his chances. Also, his goal scoring went down from 18 to 16 but he still ended up tied for 3rd in goals this year with two guys who played 8 and 11 more games then him (Larkin, Nielsen). Considering the name of the game is too score goals to win I would consider getting rid of one your goal scorers as not a very good decision, especially for a team who was fourth last in goals as a team.

Second, I would not say either Mantha or Bert were remotely close to shifting positions and linemate's as frequently as AA. As soon as Bert had decent chemistry with Z he was with him the rest of the year. If Mantha wasn't on a line with Z, he would have Larkin as his centre.

Third, when did he ask for 3 mil? I do not remember him ever asking for that much but to say he barely played up to his 1.38 million dollar contract is not fair. At 1.38 million and scoring 16 goals and having 33 points, any of the other 30 teams would take that contract in a heartbeat. This season will be much different though because he will have an arbitrator and AA can't high ball and the Red Wings can't low ball. The deal would be done prior to training camp and AA will have a training camp and exhibition games to get his feet wet and work on his defensive game and other aspects of his game he wasn't able to work on last year.

Lastly, you make it seem like AA is the only player in the NHL that is confident in his abilities? If he didn't have confidence in his ability then he likely wouldn't have made it this far in his hockey career. Unfortunately, he made a gamble and bet on himself and he did not have as good a year as us fans hoped. But the fact people are giving up him and wanting him out of town is puzzling. We are not even close to making a playoff spot and our prospect pool at the moment is certainly in the bottom half and we want to get rid of of one of our younger players because he underachieved one season in only his SECOND full season in the NHL. Also, clearly the players on the team enjoy his presence, as on Instagram earlier in the spring he went on a golfing trip with Mantha, Bert and Larkin, and he is always spotted with his teammates joking and smiling on the Red Wings account so maybe his attitude is maybe not as big an issue as you perceive. It doesn't seem like an Evander Kane in Winnipeg situation where the players wanted him out of town....

First, 15-17% shooting percentage tends to be unsustainable. League average is actually 9%. Only 20 of 509 that played 41 games or more, had a shooting percentage of 17 or higher. Only 51 of those 509 had over 15%. That represents the top 10% of shooters in the NHL. Also AA was 4th in goal scoring. You forgot about Tatar. But whatever. Being 4th with 16 goals is pretty pathetic. And what about those 10+ game stretches (yes there were many of them) where he didn't score a goal? He scored in less than 20% of the games he played in. That's not an elite goal scorer. That's not even a very good one. I fully expect Ras and Svech to replace his goal scoring.

Second, you might not say that, but the stats say that AA played a majority of his time on one of three different lines. Mantha played most of his time split between 4 different line combinations and Larkin played between 7 different combinations. So, what you saw and what the reality were might not be the same.

Third that was the number Russia offered him, he reportedly wanted between 2.5 and 3. That's way more than what he's worth and him trying to play off the KHL shows he doesn't want to abide by the how the CBA was set up by jumping leagues.

Lastly, its funny that Mantha, who is a confident person could take ownership, and Z can, and Larkin can, but somehow AA gets a pass. People are giving up on him because he's showing all the signs of letting his ego and his laziness greatly overshadow his abilities. Attitude problems have sunk a lot of careers and he's not shown he's grown up since was a teen in the CHL.

 

[Claypool]

Holland mismanaged the cap, and only had scraps left to nickel and dime AA in the last negotiation.

Then AA continued to show inconsistency and effort problems.

There's no hypocrisy in being frustrated by both of those problems.

AA was being offered a contract that was comparable to other similar players. 2 years a $3.8 million is absolutely within his pay raise range. There was no nickel and diming going on. Holland correctly saw right thought his agent's thinly veiled threats to play in Russia or Switzerland.

Any frustrations with that situation fall squarely on Athanasiou and his agent.

 

[oconnor9sean]

Would not be surprised if he's moved at the draft along with our two seconds to get another pick in the 12-16 range if a player the Wings like falls.

At this point, I think the Organization and AA think it's best to move on sooner rather than later. Shame too, because his teammates seem to like him, but the Wings brass are a bit prude when it comes to Egos, and it's clear Blash and him have mutual dislike for each other

Dallas is a team that needs middle 6 scoring, and picks at 13. I'd be all for that.

Although I'm probably higher on AA than I should be because he torches the Stars everytime we play.

 

[Pavels Dog]

AA on several occasions went 13-15 games without a goal or point this season so I'm not really sure it's fair to say his ability to change a game is constant. He is a gamechanger...when he wants to be. Maybe he'll want that more next season, maybe he won't. My bet is on the latter because Blashill won't gift him undeserved ice time over a guy like Bertuzzi who skates his ass off every shift and is proving more useful.

Not entirely accurate. His longest pointless streak was 9 games (one time). He did go 15 games without a goal once, and 13 games without a goal once, but that isn't really crazy considering only the upper tier of NHL goal scorers really avoid scoring droughts during a season.
But that's still missing the point. If his effort level was constant and he never had slumps, never lapses in effort, no droughts... he'd be a superstar. He's not. What he is, is a player that can make a big difference in those games where he is 'on'. There are 30-40 point players like Darren Helm, who will give you a constant effort but isn't going to be someone that really steps up in a 1-1 defensively gridlocked game with a huge individual effort to create a goal. AA can do that stuff. In his best games, he can be a major component to winning.

You want players with AA's capacity on your team. Because even if he nevers becomes a superstar, he's someone that can actually put it together for stretches and look like one. He could be someone that goes ham in a playoff run like Franzen. He could step up if big players get injured to carry the team for 20-30 games. Maybe he never does, but having that kind of "hidden potential" on a roster is valuable, rather than only having safe players that you know exactly what their ability is (which is also useful but not an entire roster full of them).

He will be moved for what feels like a relatively modest return when all is said and done. Coaches in today's game are obsessed with managing risk. They value players who are consistent, make safe decisions and can play within a system, especially further down the lineup. That just isn't AA. Blash has been far from perfect with AA, but I do expect somewhat similar treatment from other coaches outside of the organization further down the road.

Keep in mind Blash was also eager to call up AA. For all the flack he's gotten about his treatment of him, it was Blash who wanted him on the roster fast. Coaches want to manage risk but they also love players that can skate and score goals.

I don't think you can fault the kid for wanting a fair contract.

He got a fair contract. He wanted far more than fair.

 

[Invictus12]

Wrong. Most were upset that Holland had spent to the cap for rubbish, and seemingly didn't have the cash to re-sign one of their top prospects.

Overpayment (with term) for old trash sucks far more than costly bridges for prospects.

Holland still sucks hard.

That was part of it, sure. How is it wrong when, surely, I'd think you yourself would agree now that Athanasiou didn't warrant the money he was trying to hold out for? Besides, plenty of folks, myself included, were saying that if need be, cap space can always be freed.

We see this same outrage with ever prospect. Half this board suddenly couldn't live without Frk when Carolina snatched him up on waivers. Same movie, over an over. Somehow proven reliable players are trash but a kid that has yet to show he can even keep up with whats happening around him on NHL ice is gold. You might as well quit your job, pull out all your savings, sell all your belongings and head to Vegas because there's a chance you might become a millionaire.

I'd say Holland is level headed. He doesn't count his chickens before the eggs hatch.

 

[Hen Kolland]

You want players with AA's capacity on your team. Because even if he nevers becomes a superstar, he's someone that can actually put it together for stretches and look like one. He could be someone that goes ham in a playoff run like Franzen. He could step up if big players get injured to carry the team for 20-30 games. Maybe he never does, but having that kind of "hidden potential" on a roster is valuable, rather than only having safe players that you know exactly what their ability is (which is also useful but not an entire roster full of them).

"Hidden potential" is just another way of saying not being a factor on a regular basis.

I don't think there's any value in a player who could possibly be able to carry a team for a short stretch. Any positive value that Athanasiou's ability to go on a hot streak is equally or more than negated by the stretches where he has zero impact on games. If I'm keeping AA around, it's because I expect his consistency to come around as an impact player more than he is invisible on the ice. His ability right now is to maybe serve as a spark plug for 2-3 games, but we have never really seen him carry a team. His best stretch this year came in November when he had a 4 game stretch with 4 goals and 2 assists, other than that he had one point streak that hit 3 games with 2 goals and 1 assist.

Right now he is trending towards being like Michael Grabner, a middle 6, 30-40 point plug in. Or Carl Hagelin. He will have a job, but he really won't get the treatment or the money he is hoping for.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Traded at the draft for a displaced Buffalo defense prospect.

Sure hope not. Would rather have a pick.

 

[Richard Moistmaker]

There is really no reason to trade AA at this point in his career. His trade value is at an all time low. The best we could really hope for at this point is a 2nd round pick which would have a very small chance that the pick ever even reaches AA's level. He is still an RFA so I would give him another 1 or 2 year deal and see how it plays out. He can still score goals and can continue to be a valuable 3rd line scorer if nothing else. He is also still very young with a load of potential and could find his game. He really needs to get his act together this offseason and train really hard to become more defensively responsible.

 

[avssuc]

That was part of it, sure. How is it wrong when, surely, I'd think you yourself would agree now that Athanasiou didn't warrant the money he was trying to hold out for? Besides, plenty of folks, myself included, were saying that if need be, cap space can always be freed.

We see this same outrage with ever prospect. Half this board suddenly couldn't live without Frk when Carolina snatched him up on waivers. Same movie, over an over. Somehow proven reliable players are trash but a kid that has yet to show he can even keep up with whats happening around him on NHL ice is gold. You might as well quit your job, pull out all your savings, sell all your belongings and head to Vegas because there's a chance you might become a millionaire.

I'd say Holland is level headed. He doesn't count his chickens before the eggs hatch.

-I didn't think he was worth the money then. I've always seen AA as Ysebaert 2.0 (and I've said that several times). He's fast, fun, but not some top 6 gem.

-Like it was with Datsyuk? Seems to stand in opposition to a committed rebuild.

-In the sense that he consistently errs conservatively with young guys, sure. Most of us, myself included, just want to see him apportion his conservative approach to the elder contracts. I think it's great that he doesn't break the bank for bridges... but the Datsyuk trade, Abdelkader, Helm, Nielsen, DeKeyser, and other veteran contracts stand in opposition to a tethered rebuild philosophy.