Player Discussion Troy Terry

[Gurglesons]

This is not an answer to the question. These are players who went through with arbitration. Terry and PV have not gone to arbitration yet. These are preliminary numbers. You were asked to prove who "got bent out of shape" from preliminary arbitration numbers. The answer is no one ever.

This is so common and simply the way the process works. In fact, it's great news. Terry submitting 8 mil means he knows he's not worth that. It probably means something in the 6-7 mil range is more likely and that's great news for the Ducks.

My main point was largely if he gets to arbitration.

I don’t think it’s great news that the Ducks are potentially taking Terry to arb. If they sign him long term prior, then no harm no foul.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Bratt was producing similarly to Terry before his breakout seasons. Terry has been a .64 ppg player, pre breakout Bratt was .57. Debrincat has out produced Terry every step of the way and got 4 years @ 7.8. I think Terry will 6.75- 7 million

• Bratt
  • 2020-21: 46 games, 30 points
  • 2021-22: 76 games, 73 points
  Arbitration: low = $4.15 mil, high = $6.5 mil
  • 2022-23: 82 games, 73 points
  Extension: $7.875 mil AAV for 8 years.

• Terry
  • 2020-21: 48 games, 20 points
  • 2021-22: 75 games, 67 points
  • 2022-23: 70 games, 61 points
  Arbitration: low = $4.5 mil, high =$8 mil

The difference was Bratt's arbitration saw a huge spike, but it's only a one year spike. Bratt reproduced his numbers the following year and was rewarded with a $7.875 mil AAV.

With Terry, we know he's producing consistently high for two seasons, instead of a one year spike.

You wrote:

Not really - Jesper Bratt got 4.15. Great comp for Terry.

So NO, this isn't a great comp because Bratt's and Terry's situations are not similar. There should be more talks towards the $7.875 mil AAV end than the $4.5 mil end b/c it's not a flash in the pan production.

 

[DaGeneral]

• Bratt
  • 2020-21: 46 games, 30 points
  • 2021-22: 76 games, 73 points
  Arbitration: low = $4.15 mil, high = $6.5 mil
  • 2022-23: 82 games, 73 points
  Extension: $7.875 mil AAV for 8 years.

• Terry
  • 2020-21: 48 games, 20 points
  • 2021-22: 75 games, 67 points
  • 2022-23: 70 games, 61 points
  Arbitration: low = $4.5 mil, high =$8 mil

The difference was Bratt's arbitration saw a huge spike, but it's only a one year spike. Bratt reproduced his numbers the following year and was rewarded with a $7.875 mil AAV.

With Terry, we know he's producing consistently high for two seasons, instead of a one year spike.

You wrote:



So NO, this isn't a great comp because Bratt's and Terry's situations are not similar. There should be more talks towards the $7.875 mil AAV end than the $4.5 mil end b/c it's not a flash in the pan production.

You basically ignored my entire take - that Terry did nothing his first 3 years in the league while Bratt was a .54 ppg in that same time.

 

[Rasp]

It feels like a bad faith negotiation with Terry. PV must not see him as a cornerstone of the team

 

[Sean Garrity]

Wouldn't he still be ufa. 3 year ELC, 3 year Second deal and 1 year arbitration deal would put him at 7 years of service. And UFA. I dont think he had any slide years.

If the 2 games in 17-18 count towards free agency?

I'm going to just stop at this point because I don't know enough about it and don't want to spread any misinformation if I'm wrong . I just remember what I heard and read, but it may be likely that his 2 NHL games count as a year of service to incentivize college kids to come out? Someone smarter than me can help...please lol.

 

[nbducksfan19]

It feels like a bad faith negotiation with Terry. PV must not see him as a cornerstone of the team

That seems like a pretty big reach to get to that conclusion.

Cronin described Terry in the most glowing of terms, it would seem a pretty big disconnect for PV to feel Meh on a guy who his new head coach loves.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

That number from Anaheim is a joke based on the current market. This dude goes and overpays for his old lightning guys then makes insulting offers for the actual good players we have that had to play on hid soft garbage roster last season

 

[Rasp]

That seems like a pretty big reach to get to that conclusion.

Cronin described Terry in the most glowing of terms, it would seem a pretty big disconnect for PV to feel Meh on a guy who his new head coach loves.

If you want Terry to sign a lower contract than he wants then you get him to buy into the vision of the team and the potential future success. You could also mention post career opportunities. You dont go through arbitration and low ball because that creates bad blood. If he was a cornerstone player PV would do whatever he can to help him understand the reasonings and appease him because he is vital to the team long term. Treating him like this shows he is replaceable in the teams big picture.

 

[Rybread86]

So NO, this isn't a great comp because Bratt's and Terry's situations are not similar. There should be more talks towards the $7.875 mil AAV end than the $4.5 mil end b/c it's not a flash in the pan production.

Bratts not a bad comp. Tage Thompson also not a bad comp.

I wouldnt be surprised if he ended up being in the low to mid 7's at the end of the day. Term will be the interesting part.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

It feels like a bad faith negotiation with Terry. PV must not see him as a cornerstone of the team

But 8M feels like good faith?

 

[Rybread86]

That number from Anaheim is a joke based on the current market. This dude goes and overpays for his old lightning guys then makes insulting offers for the actual good players we have that had to play on hid soft garbage roster last season

Wasnt an offer, its an arbitration number. Huge difference.

 

[Leonardo87]

I think folks are getting a little too upset over the 4.5 million part. Should clarify that the team did not offer him 4.5 million it’s just part of the arbitration process. Team sets the bar very low and the player sets it very high.

 

[Deuce22]

Don't understand the sentiment that Verbeek should give Terry what he wants so he won't be upset. A good GM will pay his players as little a possible, based on the market value of that player. Comparing Terry to Killorn is bogus, Killorn was a FA. Wanting the GM to overpay the guys we like smacks of fanboy.

 

[70sSanO]

It would be hard to go over $7m and 7 years for Terry.

I’m not sure he could get more than $7m as a FA and he’ll be 32, almost 33, at the end of 7 years. I could see it going to $50m over 7 years, but it would be a tough sell beyond that.

The one unknown is the playoffs. Without any playoff experience it is impossible to know if he steps up or disappears.

John

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

If it does go to arbitration.. They can only award him 2 years right?

 

[Lord Flashheart]

That number from Anaheim is a joke based on the current market. This dude goes and overpays for his old lightning guys then makes insulting offers for the actual good players we have that had to play on hid soft garbage roster last season

Not a good take actually, as the two groups of players serve two different purposes. Overpaid "old Lighting guys" serve a purpose to help a transition from dog-shit to regular playoff appearence, while Terry et. al. serve a purpose to contend. For teams to successfully contend first pre-requisite is, due to cap system, loyalty in a sense of signing team friendly deals, which is something Verbeek will likely try to establish.

 

[AngelDuck]

Zegras is much more likely to get an 8 million dollar deal than Terry and always has been.

Terry is the better player right this moment but there are considerable differences between the 2 in terms of age and what they’ve accomplished

Terry is about to be 26 and was drafted 8 years ago now. He has 2 impactful seasons as a 60-70 point player

Zegras is 22 and was drafted 4 seasons ago. He has 2 impactful seasons as a 65 point player

I believe there is still room for Terry to get better but there’s definitely more room for Zegras to improve just based on age. It’s an easier argument for an agent, that’s for sure

There’s an argument that Verbeek can present that suggests Terry has reached his prime already. Although I personally don’t agree

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Not a good take actually, as the two groups of players serve two different purposes. Overpaid "old Lighting guys" serve a purpose to help a transition from dog-shit to regular playoff appearence, while Terry et. al. serve a purpose to contend. For teams to successfully contend first pre-requisite is, due to cap system, loyalty in a sense of signing team friendly deals, which is something Verbeek will likely try to establish.

PV might encounter some persuadability problems given that arguably the two worst seasons in franchise history both just happened under PV's watch. People should remember that "show me" is not just something that teams say to players--the reverse can happen, too.

Cronin might be a good ambassador for PV in that respect this summer if he can show the players a concrete path towards whatever vision PV has communicated to them, if any.

 

[Leonardo87]

Tomorrow is T-day! For multiple reasons, lol.

 

[Rybread86]

I'd be looking at either

7 years @ 7.142mil (50mil)
8 years @ 6.875mil (55mil)

Or if PV really doesn't want to do something with that much term

6 years @ 7.333mil (44mil)

 

[Hockey Duckie]

You basically ignored my entire take - that Terry did nothing his first 3 years in the league while Bratt was a .54 ppg in that same time.

You are ignoring WHEN the arbitration takes place, which I conveniently laid out chronologically.

Spoiler: In-depth reasoning in words than a chronological list

The Devils didn't ignore it. They used it because they thought his 2021-22 season was a flash fluke. Bratt reproduced the 2021-22 the next year to show the production wasn't a fluke. Two seasons to establish consistency netted Bratt an eight year extension at an AAV of $7.875 mil.

Let's establish that Bratt producing at a high clip for two consecutive seasons is the reason why he landed his $7.875 mil contract. Otherwise, using your logic, that AAV should be much lower because of his first three years at only a 0.54 ppg rate.

You can't have it both ways.

Terry produced at a high rate for two consecutive seasons. His production is not a flash in the pan. Thus, his salary should be viewed similarly to Bratt's.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I think folks are getting a little too upset over the 4.5 million part. Should clarify that the team did not offer him 4.5 million it’s just part of the arbitration process. Team sets the bar very low and the player sets it very high.

I'm not sure Terry set the high end high enough if this is a game of meet me in the middle, especially with how low the low end was presented.

 

[70sSanO]

I'm not sure Terry set the high end high enough if this is a game of meet me in the middle, especially with how low the low end was presented.

But he went from 37 goals to 23 goals. As a wing, I have less of a problem with less points than with significantly less goals.

Hard to ask for more than $8m with those numbers.

John

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Zegras is much more likely to get an 8 million dollar deal than Terry and always has been.

Terry is the better player right this moment but there are considerable differences between the 2 in terms of age and what they’ve accomplished

Terry is about to be 26 and was drafted 8 years ago now. He has 2 impactful seasons as a 60-70 point player

Zegras is 22 and was drafted 4 seasons ago. He has 2 impactful seasons as a 65 point player

I believe there is still room for Terry to get better but there’s definitely more room for Zegras to improve just based on age. It’s an easier argument for an agent, that’s for sure

There’s an argument that Verbeek can present that suggests Terry has reached his prime already. Although I personally don’t agree

Yeah the more I think about the more I wonder if they're taking a hard look at the downside risk on Terry. You give 7M plus to a super late bloomer whose goal scoring has been wildly inconsistent and who has documented confidence-spiral issues? A guy who's going to be mid-30s at the end of the deal?

His camp will have answers for all of that, plus he's a coach's dream and a leadership candidate, but there's legitimate room for concern on management's part. Like TMDM pointed out, if there was a deal to be made in the $7M range, why haven't they just made it already.

 

[dracom]

Yeah the more I think about the more I wonder if they're taking a hard look at the downside risk on Terry. You give 7M plus to a super late bloomer whose goal scoring has been wildly inconsistent and who has documented confidence-spiral issues? A guy who's going to be mid-30s at the end of the deal?

His camp will have answers for all of that, plus he's a coach's dream and a leadership candidate, but there's legitimate room for concern on management's part. Like TMDM pointed out, if there was a deal to be made in the $7M range, why haven't they just made it already.

Im sorry what is this about?