I don't know for sure if he'll make it to free agency, but ultimately there are only three scenarios that make sense for my rebuilding team:
1. I get Karlsson for free (keep all my young core assets, continue rebuild)
2. I get Karlsson for lower than market value (keep all my young core assets, continue rebuild)
3. I don't get Karlsson (keep all my young core assets, continue rebuild)
Core assets:
Zibanejad
Buchnevich
Skjei
9th overall
Chytil
Andersson
Shestyorkin
Any future Rangers 1st
People say this all the time when a player is nearing their contract. "Why should my team trade their assets for x, they'll just sign him for free". The thing is, the odds of Karlsson hitting July 1st 2019 are incredibly low. It's why Tavares hitting free agency (if he does, there's still time) would be such a big deal.
Maybe we just have a difference in opinion on how good Karlsson is, or a difference in philosophy, but I think a 27 year old Karlsson under team control for the rest of his prime is tremendously more valuable to a rebuild than 1 or 2 great young pieces, and then a ton of dime a dozen prospects.
Skjei is a solid young mid pairing D, but he's not a superstar, and it's more likely than not that he doesn't become a superstar.
Andersson is a fantastic prospect any team would be lucky to have, but he's not an absolute top level blue chip type. He's like a second tier guy.
Those are really the only two main pieces that hurt the Rangers.
If the Rangers acquire Karlsson, they could then go on to liquidate guys like Kreider and Zucc' to acquire more 1st round picks/prospects in order to replenish what they gave up in the Karlsson deal. They should have enough cap to go after a big fish in free agency whether it is Tavares or Kovalchuk. Are they guaranteed to get one of those two? Maybe not. But having Karlsson would be a huge draw.
Whenever the topic of a rebuilding team acquiring Karlsson comes up, it seems like posters think within the confines of a predefined box of what a rebuild is supposed to be. "Karlsson isn't 19, therefore giving up picks/prospects for him=bad". The way I see it, you want to acquire the most effective pieces possible for the best prices possible in order to build a winner. Both when judged by his acquisition cost in a trade, and the cost of his extension (11-12 million most likely) Karlsson will still be one of the most effective players relative to his total cost in the entire league. It just so happens that the Senators can't do shit with him because Melnyk's budget if it is going to continue at 68Mish is restrictive that Karlsson/Duchene/Ryan/Stone at 35+ million will be extremely difficult to build around.