Speculation: Trade, FA & Rumours (Mod warning OP)

[buggs]

With the NHL start date looking like it's set, plus financial side known largely as per the CA & NHLPA/NHL........some speculation trades & signings could start up again & could be very busy between now & season start in just over four weeks (brief freeze over Xmas).

Could the Jets have interest in Max Pacioretty at a discounted cost to get him & reports are LV would be willing to retain up to 2 million per year in a trade. We know LV is desperate to make a trade. Max has a 10 team no trade, but might love the chance of playing with some great offensive talent on the Jets.

Jets get Max at a cheaper normal trade value with retention for three years and trade Laine before the season starts to someone else? Laine trade could be top pairing RHD+ (might include Pionk if we got a top pairing RHD) or huge haul of picks/prospects all exempt from the expansion draft which carry the Jets forward for many more years.

Wait, so now we've moved to the point of being ok with taking a bunch of risk (huge haul of picks/prospects) for a proven goal scorer? You're not getting the top pairing RHD, they're as rare as hen's teeth which is why Trouba makes as much as he does in spite of his lacklustre play. There just aren't that many out there and few, if any, who are going to wave to come to Winnipeg. But those picks are being absolutely grossly overvalued - you've got to realize there's going to be a single 1st round pick in there, not multiples and no guarantees of top ten picks even at that. The rest are likely to be a smattering in other rounds, maybe a 2nd, maybe a 4th. They might, might work out in your favor. The prospect(s) might yield a guy that plays in the NHL, with what? A 20% chance at best to be better than 3rd line or 2nd pairing? Oh, but wait, we get Patches too. But you've got a guy, in hand, who is basically already Max Pacioretty, but ten years younger. He's (Laine) unlikely to get worse and has shown some degree of improvement in his physical play. Yeah, he's defensively not there, neither is KC.

So Vegas retains 2 mill/per (pipe dream IMO but we'll run with it; they might for a year). That means we're paying him only $8.5 this year with cap hit of $7 (stays same for next four seasons even when he's making $5.25 in his last two years)). He's 32 this season. He comes out of his contract at 36. We're hungry to move a young right winger (who is going to have to deal with the reality of the post-Covid cap environment no matter how much that sucks for him) who is all of 22 and put up 63 points in 68 games for a 32 year old left wing who costs nearly $2 million more, has a career high of 67 points (in 80 games) and is likely declining? Because why? He fits Wheeler's window? Is that the Jets window? Because I sort of thought it was more the Scheifele/Ehlers/Morrissey/Hellebuyck window that we should be targeting.

How about this: we retain Laine, run him with Statsny this year and re-sign Statsny to a 1 or 2 year deal down the road allowing time for Perfetti to develop. We pay Laine roughly Kyle Connor money and just keep him for 5-8 more years. Because while the smoke right remain, Covid changed the narrative. Prior to March Laine might have got the rumored high ask (from someone, not necessarily TSNE) but it's gone and his agent has to know it. Every agent has to know it now and every guy that signed long term prior to 2020 should be laughing because a lot of guys won't see Connor money. Most of these guys are going to be on their last contract by the time the NHL recovers, assuming it does. In Laine's case he (and his agent) should be smart enough to sign a 5 x $7 deal and ride out the Covid disaster.

 

[Buffdog]

With the NHL start date looking like it's set, plus financial side known largely as per the CA & NHLPA/NHL........some speculation trades & signings could start up again & could be very busy between now & season start in just over four weeks (brief freeze over Xmas).

Could the Jets have interest in Max Pacioretty at a discounted cost to get him & reports are LV would be willing to retain up to 2 million per year in a trade. We know LV is desperate to make a trade. Max has a 10 team no trade, but might love the chance of playing with some great offensive talent on the Jets.

Jets get Max at a cheaper normal trade value with retention for three years and trade Laine before the season starts to someone else? Laine trade could be top pairing RHD+ (might include Pionk if we got a top pairing RHD) or huge haul of picks/prospects all exempt from the expansion draft which carry the Jets forward for many more years.

With all due respect, the people speculating this are the same ones that twiddle their thumbs on trade deadline and UFA day.

There will probably be some movement but nothing major. Maybe some teams will clear cap space at a cost to sign the Hoffmans of the world but I'm kot expecting anything earth shattering.

That said, if you would have told me a year ago that the government would outlaw Christmas dinner, I wouldn't have believed that either. So anything can happen lol

 

[Hunter368]

Wait, so now we've moved to the point of being ok with taking a bunch of risk (huge haul of picks/prospects) for a proven goal scorer? You're not getting the top pairing RHD, they're as rare as hen's teeth which is why Trouba makes as much as he does in spite of his lacklustre play. There just aren't that many out there and few, if any, who are going to wave to come to Winnipeg. But those picks are being absolutely grossly overvalued - you've got to realize there's going to be a single 1st round pick in there, not multiples and no guarantees of top ten picks even at that. The rest are likely to be a smattering in other rounds, maybe a 2nd, maybe a 4th. They might, might work out in your favor. The prospect(s) might yield a guy that plays in the NHL, with what? A 20% chance at best to be better than 3rd line or 2nd pairing? Oh, but wait, we get Patches too. But you've got a guy, in hand, who is basically already Max Pacioretty, but ten years younger. He's (Laine) unlikely to get worse and has shown some degree of improvement in his physical play. Yeah, he's defensively not there, neither is KC.

So Vegas retains 2 mill/per (pipe dream IMO but we'll run with it; they might for a year). That means we're paying him only $8.5 this year with cap hit of $7 (stays same for next four seasons even when he's making $5.25 in his last two years)). He's 32 this season. He comes out of his contract at 36. We're hungry to move a young right winger (who is going to have to deal with the reality of the post-Covid cap environment no matter how much that sucks for him) who is all of 22 and put up 63 points in 68 games for a 32 year old left wing who costs nearly $2 million more, has a career high of 67 points (in 80 games) and is likely declining? Because why? He fits Wheeler's window? Is that the Jets window? Because I sort of thought it was more the Scheifele/Ehlers/Morrissey/Hellebuyck window that we should be targeting.

How about this: we retain Laine, run him with Statsny this year and re-sign Statsny to a 1 or 2 year deal down the road allowing time for Perfetti to develop. We pay Laine roughly Kyle Connor money and just keep him for 5-8 more years. Because while the smoke right remain, Covid changed the narrative. Prior to March Laine might have got the rumored high ask (from someone, not necessarily TSNE) but it's gone and his agent has to know it. Every agent has to know it now and every guy that signed long term prior to 2020 should be laughing because a lot of guys won't see Connor money. Most of these guys are going to be on their last contract by the time the NHL recovers, assuming it does. In Laine's case he (and his agent) should be smart enough to sign a 5 x $7 deal and ride out the Covid disaster.

We all realize we can't force Laine to sign any deal & even if he does sign we only have three years left of team control, plus Laine camp can absolutely turn up the heat & demand a trade publically & refuse to report. Jets have some leverage yes, but let's not pretend we can force Laine to sign long term.

 

[Hunter368]

With all due respect, the people speculating this are the same ones that twiddle their thumbs on trade deadline and UFA day.

There will probably be some movement but nothing major. Maybe some teams will clear cap space at a cost to sign the Hoffmans of the world but I'm kot expecting anything earth shattering.

That said, if you would have told me a year ago that the government would outlaw Christmas dinner, I wouldn't have believed that either. So anything can happen lol

Yup it will be a interesting four weeks no doubt, historical means nothing now......everything & anything can happen now days.

 

[KingBogo]

Wait, so now we've moved to the point of being ok with taking a bunch of risk (huge haul of picks/prospects) for a proven goal scorer? You're not getting the top pairing RHD, they're as rare as hen's teeth which is why Trouba makes as much as he does in spite of his lacklustre play. There just aren't that many out there and few, if any, who are going to wave to come to Winnipeg. But those picks are being absolutely grossly overvalued - you've got to realize there's going to be a single 1st round pick in there, not multiples and no guarantees of top ten picks even at that. The rest are likely to be a smattering in other rounds, maybe a 2nd, maybe a 4th. They might, might work out in your favor. The prospect(s) might yield a guy that plays in the NHL, with what? A 20% chance at best to be better than 3rd line or 2nd pairing? Oh, but wait, we get Patches too. But you've got a guy, in hand, who is basically already Max Pacioretty, but ten years younger. He's (Laine) unlikely to get worse and has shown some degree of improvement in his physical play. Yeah, he's defensively not there, neither is KC.

So Vegas retains 2 mill/per (pipe dream IMO but we'll run with it; they might for a year). That means we're paying him only $8.5 this year with cap hit of $7 (stays same for next four seasons even when he's making $5.25 in his last two years)). He's 32 this season. He comes out of his contract at 36. We're hungry to move a young right winger (who is going to have to deal with the reality of the post-Covid cap environment no matter how much that sucks for him) who is all of 22 and put up 63 points in 68 games for a 32 year old left wing who costs nearly $2 million more, has a career high of 67 points (in 80 games) and is likely declining? Because why? He fits Wheeler's window? Is that the Jets window? Because I sort of thought it was more the Scheifele/Ehlers/Morrissey/Hellebuyck window that we should be targeting.

How about this: we retain Laine, run him with Statsny this year and re-sign Statsny to a 1 or 2 year deal down the road allowing time for Perfetti to develop. We pay Laine roughly Kyle Connor money and just keep him for 5-8 more years. Because while the smoke right remain, Covid changed the narrative. Prior to March Laine might have got the rumored high ask (from someone, not necessarily TSNE) but it's gone and his agent has to know it. Every agent has to know it now and every guy that signed long term prior to 2020 should be laughing because a lot of guys won't see Connor money. Most of these guys are going to be on their last contract by the time the NHL recovers, assuming it does. In Laine's case he (and his agent) should be smart enough to sign a 5 x $7 deal and ride out the Covid disaster.

I don't think any of us truly know what Laine's trade value. Some of his biggest supporters would want nothing less than a McDavid type value in return, and some of his biggest critics seem to be willing to almost give him away. Like in most situations the truth lies somewhere in the middle. If Laine is traded I do expect the leger to be evened out with a top prospect and/or a high pick so this may qualify as a futures heavy trade.

In terms of signing Laine, I don't think there is a chance in hell he signs for something close to what Connor unless he has a terrible set back season. If Laine is intent on wanting out his current contract status actually matches up very well for when the league will likely be rebounding. First off this year will be a big hit for everyone, next season he will need a $7.5 M qualifying offer which is already past Connor and he is arbitration eligible if he and his agent think he can get more than that. He would then go into his UFA season again arbitration eligible and in line for at least a modest raise. Laine has no need to sign long term to make more than Connor. Laine would then hit UFA at age 25 with just about perfect timing that the sports world is back to normal and likely ready for a growth spurt starting in the 2023-24 season. I don't really expect Laine to sign long term with the Jets unless it as the very top range of winger salaries, which I don't think Chevy is willing to do unless he actually is among the top handful of wingers in the game.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

With the NHL start date looking like it's set, plus financial side known largely as per the CA & NHLPA/NHL........some speculation trades & signings could start up again & could be very busy between now & season start in just over four weeks (brief freeze over Xmas).

Could the Jets have interest in Max Pacioretty at a discounted cost to get him & reports are LV would be willing to retain up to 2 million per year in a trade. We know LV is desperate to make a trade. Max has a 10 team no trade, but might love the chance of playing with some great offensive talent on the Jets.

Jets get Max at a cheaper normal trade value with retention for three years and trade Laine before the season starts to someone else? Laine trade could be top pairing RHD+ (might include Pionk if we got a top pairing RHD) or huge haul of picks/prospects all exempt from the expansion draft which carry the Jets forward for many more years.

Patches plays the wrong side but that is not too big an issue. Maybe he can play his off-side. Generally, I expect the guys who have been around longer to be able to switch sides more easily, though that is not always the case. If he can't do it well, Ehlers can.

Having a replacement top 6 winger already on hand makes a Laine trade for RHD easier, so your idea works in theory. Not so sure about it working in reality.

What would we have given VGK in exchange for Patches? Chevy failed to take advantage of Vegas' cap situation in the Stastny trade. Why would we expect him to do so for Pacioretty?

Even with retention, if we get Max we just swap places with VGK in cap situation. We are then the ones being forced to move someone for cap relief. Every potential trade partner would want to rob us.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Another factor is that now that NHL owners aren't getting any additional cash deferrals how many of them are interested in upping their budgets.

It might be I credibly difficult for teams to mive players right now if owners don't want to spend more cash.

Were those financial issues settled? Last I heard, they had simply stopped discussing them to move on to the issues of scheduling, etc. Basically solve the easy stuff and come back to the hard stuff later.

 

[Hunter368]

Patches plays the wrong side but that is not too big an issue. Maybe he can play his off-side. Generally, I expect the guys who have been around longer to be able to switch sides more easily, though that is not always the case. If he can't do it well, Ehlers can.

Having a replacement top 6 winger already on hand makes a Laine trade for RHD easier, so your idea works in theory. Not so sure about it working in reality.

What would we have given VGK in exchange for Patches? Chevy failed to take advantage of Vegas' cap situation in the Stastny trade. Why would we expect him to do so for Pacioretty?

Even with retention, if we get Max we just swap places with VGK in cap situation. We are then the ones being forced to move someone for cap relief. Every potential trade partner would want to rob us.

My thought was Ehlers would switch sides, but maybe Patches can also I’m not sure.

As I stated in a follow up post, I suspect this close to the start of the season getting a top pairing D would be less likely then a haul of futures.

I have no issues with the Stastny trade, he was basically free.....but that’s not what we’re discussing here.

The point of pursuing a Laine trade is to help the team now and/or in the future, Laine may of privately demanded a trade, Management may of decided Laine is a poor fit within this organization’s culture, etc.....regardless of the reason why, there may be reasons fans have no idea about.

If Patches came with 1-2 million retained as per some writers have suggested LV would consider doing.....plus if Laine was traded for futures heavy package at the same time then the Jets aren’t over the cap if anything depending on retention we would be even farther under the cap then we are today (factoring in LTIR).

Of course all speculation, plus as all trades are by fans they are unlikely to ever happen....but killing time during what feels like the longest offseason ever. Four weeks can’t go fast enough.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Wait, so now we've moved to the point of being ok with taking a bunch of risk (huge haul of picks/prospects) for a proven goal scorer? You're not getting the top pairing RHD, they're as rare as hen's teeth which is why Trouba makes as much as he does in spite of his lacklustre play. There just aren't that many out there and few, if any, who are going to wave to come to Winnipeg. But those picks are being absolutely grossly overvalued - you've got to realize there's going to be a single 1st round pick in there, not multiples and no guarantees of top ten picks even at that. The rest are likely to be a smattering in other rounds, maybe a 2nd, maybe a 4th. They might, might work out in your favor. The prospect(s) might yield a guy that plays in the NHL, with what? A 20% chance at best to be better than 3rd line or 2nd pairing? Oh, but wait, we get Patches too. But you've got a guy, in hand, who is basically already Max Pacioretty, but ten years younger. He's (Laine) unlikely to get worse and has shown some degree of improvement in his physical play. Yeah, he's defensively not there, neither is KC.

So Vegas retains 2 mill/per (pipe dream IMO but we'll run with it; they might for a year). That means we're paying him only $8.5 this year with cap hit of $7 (stays same for next four seasons even when he's making $5.25 in his last two years)). He's 32 this season. He comes out of his contract at 36. We're hungry to move a young right winger (who is going to have to deal with the reality of the post-Covid cap environment no matter how much that sucks for him) who is all of 22 and put up 63 points in 68 games for a 32 year old left wing who costs nearly $2 million more, has a career high of 67 points (in 80 games) and is likely declining? Because why? He fits Wheeler's window? Is that the Jets window? Because I sort of thought it was more the Scheifele/Ehlers/Morrissey/Hellebuyck window that we should be targeting.

How about this: we retain Laine, run him with Statsny this year and re-sign Statsny to a 1 or 2 year deal down the road allowing time for Perfetti to develop. We pay Laine roughly Kyle Connor money and just keep him for 5-8 more years. Because while the smoke right remain, Covid changed the narrative. Prior to March Laine might have got the rumored high ask (from someone, not necessarily TSNE) but it's gone and his agent has to know it. Every agent has to know it now and every guy that signed long term prior to 2020 should be laughing because a lot of guys won't see Connor money. Most of these guys are going to be on their last contract by the time the NHL recovers, assuming it does. In Laine's case he (and his agent) should be smart enough to sign a 5 x $7 deal and ride out the Covid disaster.

You have some things wrong here. Pacioretty is only under contract for 3 more years, not 4. Salaries of 7, 5.25 & 5.25. The assumption is that Vegas' problem is cap space, so a retention of 2 mil/yr might work for them. It saves them 5 mil/yr in cap hit. I believe that retention is done in % of cap hit. So 2 mil would mean them retaining ~28.5%. It has to be the same in all remaining years. So it would cost them an actual 2 mil in the first year and 1.5 mil in the last 2 years. But 2 mil in cap hit in all 3 years.

The Scheifele, Hellebuyck window is the same 4 years as the Wheeler window (and Little, FWIW).

It is a coin toss whether Stastny has 1 year of 2C level play left in him, much less 1 or 2 more.

I don't think Laine's number has fallen all the way to 7 yet. We'll see how he plays this year. My estimate would be that he might sign 5x8 or 5x8.5 now rather than the 9.5-10+ number that might have been in his head earlier. A 4 year deal might be a little cheaper.

IF we were to trade for Patches and trade Laine for futures, the futures package would have to be pretty big and not that many teams could give us good value. From previous conversations with Hunter, I know that he values Laine quite a lot lower than I do. So a futures package that he would be talking about here is one that I would not be interested in.

 

[Hunter368]

You have some things wrong here. Pacioretty is only under contract for 3 more years, not 4. Salaries of 7, 5.25 & 5.25. The assumption is that Vegas' problem is cap space, so a retention of 2 mil/yr might work for them. It saves them 5 mil/yr in cap hit. I believe that retention is done in % of cap hit. So 2 mil would mean them retaining ~28.5%. It has to be the same in all remaining years. So it would cost them an actual 2 mil in the first year and 1.5 mil in the last 2 years. But 2 mil in cap hit in all 3 years.

The Scheifele, Hellebuyck window is the same 4 years as the Wheeler window (and Little, FWIW).

It is a coin toss whether Stastny has 1 year of 2C level play left in him, much less 1 or 2 more.

I don't think Laine's number has fallen all the way to 7 yet. We'll see how he plays this year. My estimate would be that he might sign 5x8 or 5x8.5 now rather than the 9.5-10+ number that might have been in his head earlier. A 4 year deal might be a little cheaper.

IF we were to trade for Patches and trade Laine for futures, the futures package would have to be pretty big and not that many teams could give us good value. From previous conversations with Hunter, I know that he values Laine quite a lot lower than I do. So a futures package that he would be talking about here is one that I would not be interested in.

Just for the record I value him as a 75-85 point offensive winger who scores 35-45 goals for multi years. This is giving him a fair bit of room to develop still considering he’s never been a PPG player to-date with significant PP time. Do you value him significantly more then that?

 

[KingBogo]

Patches plays the wrong side but that is not too big an issue. Maybe he can play his off-side. Generally, I expect the guys who have been around longer to be able to switch sides more easily, though that is not always the case. If he can't do it well, Ehlers can.

Having a replacement top 6 winger already on hand makes a Laine trade for RHD easier, so your idea works in theory. Not so sure about it working in reality.

What would we have given VGK in exchange for Patches? Chevy failed to take advantage of Vegas' cap situation in the Stastny trade. Why would we expect him to do so for Pacioretty?

Even with retention, if we get Max we just swap places with VGK in cap situation. We are then the ones being forced to move someone for cap relief. Every potential trade partner would want to rob us.

I would agree Patches is probably not the best choice for the Jets, but I disagree about Stastny. As a starting point 1 year of a proven #2 center at $6.5 M that has a demonstrated past success with your 2 - 2nd line wingers isn't a negative value. At last year's trade deadline Chevy used a 4th round pick to acquire Eakin, so a full season of Stastny provides much more value even under the current financial circumstances. Also IMO there is a longer term value in Stastny at this year's TD. If the Jets have fallen out of playoff contention he likely returns a 1st round pick and maybe a prospect. In that scenario the Jets would have traded a 4th round pick for 3/4 seasons of Stastny and whatever they can get at the TD which will be significantly greater than their 4th round pick original investment. On the flip side if we are in a position to contend for a playoff position having Stastny at #2 keeps Chevy from using draft picks/prospects to upgrade at center. Again a net win. I think if Stastny was willing to waive his NMC for a bottom dweller with cap space LV would have gotten more in return due to the team planning to flip him at the TD for a significant haul.

 

[surixon]

Were those financial issues settled? Last I heard, they had simply stopped discussing them to move on to the issues of scheduling, etc. Basically solve the easy stuff and come back to the hard stuff later.

They are settled. They have agreed to use the framework agreed to in the summer.

 

[buggs]

Just for the record I value him as a 75-85 point offensive winger who scores 35-45 goals for multi years. This is giving him a fair bit of room to develop still considering he’s never been a PPG player to-date with significant PP time. Do you value him significantly more then that?

FWIW this is where I'd see Laine's value projecting as. He might top that, he might not, but this seems a reasonable projection.

@Mortimer Snerd yes, I was incorrect as I missed that $10.5 year had just passed. So the Patches deal looks a fair bit better there, mea culpa.

@KingBogo I think where we view it differently is in terms of the recovery aspect of the salary cap. I don't think there'll be appreciable relief in that area for 3-5 years. I'm not nearly as optimistic about a return to full attendance as many seem to be with respect to Covid. So the cap remains largely flat for a number of years longer than your contention IMO and I think that hampers Laine's ability to move forward at a much higher salary either with the Jets or someone else in the league. Your points about how Laine can play this out (a la Trouba) are well taken and I thank you for clarifying the qualifying offer aspect. That said, I do agree Laine has no need to take anything, other than for security purposes. And the Jets have no need to sign him to control him for more than the next three years. I just would like to see them do so. Considering the qualifying offer aspect it would appear that Laine has relative control of the situation.

I just don't think the return for Laine is going to be McDavid level and we'll end up relatively disappointed. Again. I'm also concerned that the Jets seem the one team that lets itself get walked to UFA more readily as we've seen happen with Trouba and now potentially with Laine. That's not going to help Winnipeg's reputation in any way.

 

[KingBogo]

FWIW this is where I'd see Laine's value projecting as. He might top that, he might not, but this seems a reasonable projection.

@Mortimer Snerd yes, I was incorrect as I missed that $10.5 year had just passed. So the Patches deal looks a fair bit better there, mea culpa.

@KingBogo I think where we view it differently is in terms of the recovery aspect of the salary cap. I don't think there'll be appreciable relief in that area for 3-5 years. I'm not nearly as optimistic about a return to full attendance as many seem to be with respect to Covid. So the cap remains largely flat for a number of years longer than your contention IMO and I think that hampers Laine's ability to move forward at a much higher salary either with the Jets or someone else in the league. Your points about how Laine can play this out (a la Trouba) are well taken and I thank you for clarifying the qualifying offer aspect. That said, I do agree Laine has no need to take anything, other than for security purposes. And the Jets have no need to sign him to control him for more than the next three years. I just would like to see them do so. Considering the qualifying offer aspect it would appear that Laine has relative control of the situation.

I just don't think the return for Laine is going to be McDavid level and we'll end up relatively disappointed. Again. I'm also concerned that the Jets seem the one team that lets itself get walked to UFA more readily as we've seen happen with Trouba and now potentially with Laine. That's not going to help Winnipeg's reputation in any way.

The one possible path I see with Laine is a meet in the middle type of mid term contract, say a 3 or 4 year deal at $8.5 M. It makes him a UFA at the end of the deal and buys another year or hopefully 2 for the Jets. It allows for the heat to quiet down and maybe time allows Laine to overtake Wheeler on the top line and Laine likes his fit. In a perfect world Perfetti maximizes his potential as a play making center with Laine being one of the primary beneficiaries and he wants to remain with the team. If he really does want out it gives Chevy the time to maximize a return.

 

[Heldig]

Zero interest in giving assets for Pacioretty nor in losing CAP space due to his contract.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My thought was Ehlers would switch sides, but maybe Patches can also I’m not sure.

As I stated in a follow up post, I suspect this close to the start of the season getting a top pairing D would be less likely then a haul of futures.

I have no issues with the Stastny trade, he was basically free.....but that’s not what we’re discussing here.

The point of pursuing a Laine trade is to help the team now and/or in the future, Laine may of privately demanded a trade, Management may of decided Laine is a poor fit within this organization’s culture, etc.....regardless of the reason why, there may be reasons fans have no idea about.

If Patches came with 1-2 million retained as per some writers have suggested LV would consider doing.....plus if Laine was traded for futures heavy package at the same time then the Jets aren’t over the cap if anything depending on retention we would be even farther under the cap then we are today (factoring in LTIR).

Of course all speculation, plus as all trades are by fans they are unlikely to ever happen....but killing time during what feels like the longest offseason ever. Four weeks can’t go fast enough.

You might be satisfied with the value of the Stastny trade, the cost was not much (more than nothing), but we should have been paid for giving them that cap relief. We gave them Piet. That should have been worth something. But water under the bridge now. The thing is that Chevy did not go for the jugular when he could/should have. That is called for now too.

A "haul of futures" might be OK, if they are the right futures. I'd be surprised if they were. There still might be 1 or 2 teams who could give us a 1st pair RHD. Not likely a really established one who has trade protection though.

I think it is pointless to speculate about players who may have privately demanded a trade. That could be any player, any team. We know his agent brought up the subject. That is all we know. For now it is enough. There are always all kinds of possible things that we don't know about. Not all possible things happen all the time.

Pretty sure this is the longest off=season of all time. It never hurts to discuss these things. After several posters kick around ideas we see a lot of differing POV and probably discuss all of the factors that a real GM has to consider, and maybe a few more. It does paint a picture of the complexity of the decision making they have to do.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Just for the record I value him as a 75-85 point offensive winger who scores 35-45 goals for multi years. This is giving him a fair bit of room to develop still considering he’s never been a PPG player to-date with significant PP time. Do you value him significantly more then that?

It isn't so much valuing him more than that. I think we value that differently. And I still hold out at least a little hope that he will exceed that.

I expect this year to narrow the range of expectations quite a bit - except for having no idea how much or how little Covid might affect the season.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I would agree Patches is probably not the best choice for the Jets, but I disagree about Stastny. As a starting point 1 year of a proven #2 center at $6.5 M that has a demonstrated past success with your 2 - 2nd line wingers isn't a negative value. At last year's trade deadline Chevy used a 4th round pick to acquire Eakin, so a full season of Stastny provides much more value even under the current financial circumstances. Also IMO there is a longer term value in Stastny at this year's TD. If the Jets have fallen out of playoff contention he likely returns a 1st round pick and maybe a prospect. In that scenario the Jets would have traded a 4th round pick for 3/4 seasons of Stastny and whatever they can get at the TD which will be significantly greater than their 4th round pick original investment. On the flip side if we are in a position to contend for a playoff position having Stastny at #2 keeps Chevy from using draft picks/prospects to upgrade at center. Again a net win. I think if Stastny was willing to waive his NMC for a bottom dweller with cap space LV would have gotten more in return due to the team planning to flip him at the TD for a significant haul.

What we paid for Eakins at the TD, or what any team paid for any player at the TD doesn't figure into it anywhere. 1) This was not a TD deal. 2) We should have had Vegas by the short and curlies. It was a situation to take advantage of.

The possibility of moving him at this year's TD is interesting, but I think it is highly unlikely. In a shortened season, I can't see us being out of contention. Good point preventing Chevy from burning assets at the TD himself.

But I'm not talking about whether getting Stastny will turn out to be a good thing or not. That is another story altogether. I'm only talking about the opportunity to squeeze something out of VGK.

That is water under the bridge and I'm not interested in debating it again. It is just the question of whether or not Chevy would force a good deal for Patches now. Also, would there be more competition for Max now than there was for Paul then? Or less? VGK seem to be trying pretty hard to move any one of several players with no success so far. How vulnerable are they really?

Lets assume 25% retention. As long as any contract going the other way is small that should get VGK enough cap relief. What price should we pay for Max? What would Vegas want?

 

[Hunter368]

It isn't so much valuing him more than that. I think we value that differently. And I still hold out at least a little hope that he will exceed that.

I expect this year to narrow the range of expectations quite a bit - except for having no idea how much or how little Covid might affect the season.

I agree this year is his year, if he's likely going to take that next step. He's going into his 5th season shortly, time to step up and make that next big move both on & off the ice & in the leadership area. I'm excited to see how the team looks with all our additions and I'm very interested in seeing if Laine can take those big steps forward.

 

[Whileee]

You might be satisfied with the value of the Stastny trade, the cost was not much (more than nothing), but we should have been paid for giving them that cap relief. We gave them Piet. That should have been worth something. But water under the bridge now. The thing is that Chevy did not go for the jugular when he could/should have. That is called for now too.

A "haul of futures" might be OK, if they are the right futures. I'd be surprised if they were. There still might be 1 or 2 teams who could give us a 1st pair RHD. Not likely a really established one who has trade protection though.

I think it is pointless to speculate about players who may have privately demanded a trade. That could be any player, any team. We know his agent brought up the subject. That is all we know. For now it is enough. There are always all kinds of possible things that we don't know about. Not all possible things happen all the time.

Pretty sure this is the longest off=season of all time. It never hurts to discuss these things. After several posters kick around ideas we see a lot of differing POV and probably discuss all of the factors that a real GM has to consider, and maybe a few more. It does paint a picture of the complexity of the decision making they have to do.

I'm still puzzled about fans assessing trade value based on assumed costs. Obviously Stastny was not available with an add-on, or Chevy would have taken that, and perhaps other teams would have, too.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree this year is his year, if he's likely going to take that next step. He's going into his 5th season shortly, time to step up and make that next big move both on & off the ice & in the leadership area. I'm excited to see how the team looks with all our additions and I'm very interested in seeing if Laine can take those big steps forward.

IF Laine has his breakout year, we could be a very tough team to beat.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm still puzzled about fans assessing trade value based on assumed costs. Obviously Stastny was not available with an add-on, or Chevy would have taken that, and perhaps other teams would have, too.

We are always going to make some assumptions. How do you know Stastny was not available with an add on? You are assuming that he turned down the first offer from Vegas. Maybe the 2nd and 3rd one too. We don't know what he asked for and we don't know how hard he fought. We only know what he got and what he paid. Under the circumstances, I think he didn't get the best deal possible. You are assuming that whatever he got was the best possible deal.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The one possible path I see with Laine is a meet in the middle type of mid term contract, say a 3 or 4 year deal at $8.5 M. It makes him a UFA at the end of the deal and buys another year or hopefully 2 for the Jets. It allows for the heat to quiet down and maybe time allows Laine to overtake Wheeler on the top line and Laine likes his fit. In a perfect world Perfetti maximizes his potential as a play making center with Laine being one of the primary beneficiaries and he wants to remain with the team. If he really does want out it gives Chevy the time to maximize a return.

I've been thinking 4 or 5 years. I wouldn't be very happy with just 3.

 

[Whileee]

We are always going to make some assumptions. How do you know Stastny was not available with an add on? You are assuming that he turned down the first offer from Vegas. Maybe the 2nd and 3rd one too. We don't know what he asked for and we don't know how hard he fought. We only know what he got and what he paid. Under the circumstances, I think he didn't get the best deal possible. You are assuming that whatever he got was the best possible deal.

Why would Chevy not get the best deal possible at the time of the trade? Your assumption is completely unfounded.

 

[Jimmyjets]

What we paid for Eakins at the TD, or what any team paid for any player at the TD doesn't figure into it anywhere. 1) This was not a TD deal. 2) We should have had Vegas by the short and curlies. It was a situation to take advantage of.

The possibility of moving him at this year's TD is interesting, but I think it is highly unlikely. In a shortened season, I can't see us being out of contention. Good point preventing Chevy from burning assets at the TD himself.

But I'm not talking about whether getting Stastny will turn out to be a good thing or not. That is another story altogether. I'm only talking about the opportunity to squeeze something out of VGK.

That is water under the bridge and I'm not interested in debating it again. It is just the question of whether or not Chevy would force a good deal for Patches now. Also, would there be more competition for Max now than there was for Paul then? Or less? VGK seem to be trying pretty hard to move any one of several players with no success so far. How vulnerable are they really?

Lets assume 25% retention. As long as any contract going the other way is small that should get VGK enough cap relief. What price should we pay for Max? What would Vegas want?

They traded Nate Schmidt for a 3rd with 5 years left on his deal and Stastney for an AHL dman on a 1 way deal that was a cap dump and a conditional 4th round pick.

Now there are a very limited amount of teams that can even add cap, and the ones that can likely aren't interested in adding an over 30 year old winger with a flat cap and the expansion draft looming. Add to that Patches no trade list and the fact that Vegas must make a trade to become cap compliant (or I guess they could just waive him and see who wants him for free). I'd even pile on the fact that Tampa is also looking to move a forward or two and that Hoffman is sitting out there unsigned.

The price to trade for Patches would be low. Like Perreault for Patches low IMO.