Speculation: Too many "ifs" next season should make Toronto struggle make the playoffs

[Boutette]

It's a new season and a reset.

That sums up your argument in its entirety. Thanks for playing.

 

[Boutette]

I agree with the 3 young guns getting better and scoring more heck I expect Nylander to score more then 20 this upcoming year, I think everyone would have expect him to score more then that, which shows you if a player with Nylanders caliber only got 20 the chance Johnsson and Kapanen are going to get 25 each like MR4 said is unlikely and simply wont be easily done like he's saying. that's what I was responding to I get all the rest and don't expect much of a drop off in terms of offensive output by the entire team. just that expect those 3 to put up 116 points easily was where I disagree with. also I would expect Kapanen to be given more of an opportunity 5on5 to begin the season that's why I expect him to produce slightly better,

Do you think our third line is not going to be sheltered like it was this past year? If so, who gets the gift of all the offensive zone starts that JvR and Bozak got? and how does that effect their numbers? And how does the fact that Johnsson and Kapanen are highly regarded for their defensive play and speed compared to JvR and Bozak figure in as well?

 

[ottomaddox]

That sums up your argument in its entirety. Thanks for playing.

Not really.

Your dismissive post and "playing" comment is interesting though. Are you 17 years old?

 

[TootooTrain]

Roughly as many "ifs" as other teams this offseason.
I'll take "will these admirably performing prospects fill the void" rather than "will these 30+ y/os return to form".
It's a young team still. Don't need to push it. Simply enjoy it. 3-4 years down the road? That's when things get critical.

 

[thewave]

I would never assume that the teams below TOR in this year's standings always stay the same.

I didn't say the whole truth. For next year I can't really see one team becoming world beaters.

 

[Sypher04]

I know paces don't really account for all that much and the samples are small (especially so in Johnsson case), but bear with me:

JVR: 1020 ES mins - 3rd line, 34 ES points.
Kapanen: 385 ES mins - 4th line, 8 ES points. => 1020 ES mins ~= 22 ES points.
Johnsson: 87 ES mins - 4th line, 2 ES points. => 1020 ES mins ~= 24 ES points.

Both clearly lower, and again small to extremely small samples, but I feel like that gets more than negated by the fact they'd actually play with a better center (in theory) on the 3rd line.

I'm not saying they replace JVR, obviously. I'm just saying, you bump up their opportunity, they may be each good for between 25 and 30 points even strength. Give them time on powerplay #2 and should be able to count on good top 9 offense from them.

This also assumes they don't improve individually on their rookie games, which I'd imagine they will.

 

[thewave]

At present we are possibly poised to take a step back.
Matthews/Kadri and question marks after that. I'm not sold that Babcock plays Willy at C.
Goodbye 30 + goal scorer and for as much grief as Bozak takes, he's still a decent, proven NHL center.
The defense is pretty much the same. Are we expecting different results?
We are going to bring in young guys like Johnsson/Kapanen for larger roles but we still need to see what they can do. I need to see them healthy for a full 82 games and what kind of 2-way/point production they provide. It's too early to say 20 goals + 25 goals apiece. They need a full year.
This is at present.

What is done between now and September could be a different beast.
We need to see what Dubas does to shape the roster and where Babcock plans on deploying them.

Big changes exciting times, limited prospects and ordianry number of picks to work with. We also have one notable UFA in Jake.

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

While I don't think the Leafs are going to snag either JT or Carlson, to be fair, only 6 out of 31 teams right now have more cap space than Toronto, the majority of which have been clown shows over most of the past few years and at least 2 have significant internal caps (Arizona and Carolina) so aren't likely particularly attractive to high priced UFAs.

That's why I said long term cap space. The $22-25M we'll end up paying the big three for 6-8 years is significant. And the Kapanen's and Johnsson's won't be very far behind.

 

[Boutette]

Not really.

Your dismissive post and "playing" comment is interesting though. Are you 17 years old?

Why would I choose the nickname I have if I was 17? Think about it. You dismissed my question of how you imagine the four teams who fell many points behind Toronto (each of whom have *less* cap space than the Leafs, by the way) this past year by claiming, but... but... but they could magically pull a Vegas!! Or somehow their orgs are going to produce a Matthews, Nylander, Marner+++ as the Leafs did to pull themselves out of the basement (ignoring the fact that Toronto wasn't as bad as their 69pt last place record suggested) out of thin air. How is that an argument? Context actually exists in the real world. Each season isn't the total 'reset button' you claim it to be.

 

[Boutette]

That's why I said long term cap space. The $22-25M we'll end up paying the big three for 6-8 years is significant. And the Kapanen's and Johnsson's won't be very far behind.

Every team has to pay its players. Since a lot of teams don't have many great players on ELCs they can bank on, they'd have to go trade or UFA which kind of evens the field.

 

[Boutette]

I know paces don't really account for all that much and the samples are small (especially so in Johnsson case), but bear with me:

JVR: 1020 ES mins - 3rd line, 34 ES points.
Kapanen: 385 ES mins - 4th line, 8 ES points. => 1020 ES mins ~= 22 ES points.
Johnsson: 87 ES mins - 4th line, 2 ES points. => 1020 ES mins ~= 24 ES points.

Both clearly lower, and again small to extremely small samples, but I feel like that gets more than negated by the fact they'd actually play with a better center (in theory) on the 3rd line.

I'm not saying they replace JVR, obviously. I'm just saying, you bump up their opportunity, they may be each good for between 25 and 30 points even strength. Give them time on powerplay #2 and should be able to count on good top 9 offense from them.

This also assumes they don't improve individually on their rookie games, which I'd imagine they will.

Question is, you put JVR on the 4th line with Plecanec and Komarov, how many ES points do you think he gets? IMO, he's a lot closer to those Kapanen, Johnson numbers.

 

[ULF_55]

I think the 3rd. line will be easily replaced with regards to the 17000 square feet of ice surface.

Additionally, I think we can add a minute or two to Matthews deployment. So that takes care of 2 minutes of Bozak's ice time.

Why do people continue to believe players who are moved are not being replaced?

It isn't like teams don't replace players, and to begin with the team they put on the ice failed anyway! People want a repeat of last season?

Really, only 2 full time forwards are potentially moving on. Bozak and van Riemsdyk. Komarov has already become a replaceable / situational player. Others were part-time players, and wouldn't likely beat out some of the Marlies on a level playing surface.

Time doesn't stand still and players age out of the game continuously and that won't change.

We already know Kapanen is a permanent member of the team. It is likely Johnsson is finished with the minors. Neither of them were starters last season opener.

van Riemsdyk scored plenty, but he was the beneficiary of the work done by his teammates. He did not generate scoring chances, he finished scoring chances. van Riemsdyk scored 25 even strength goals, based on the work of his teammates. Those goals may not be replaced by one player but they don't need to be. Bozak 8 even strength goals is by design ... get the puck to the net for van Riemsdyk to score. Get a center who isn't focused on setting up a finisher and you don't need 25 even strength goals from van Riemsdyk, and as for PP goals, Matthews is going to be getting more opportunity on the PP going forward.

Are Marlies replacing van Riemsdyk and Bozak? That's quite possible, or perhaps Bozak replaces Bozak.

Are there going to be new players on the team? I certainly hope so! Who wants to keep putting out something that isn't working?

Dermott is a given, and I believe another Marlies defender will be on the team, and there are several options. I'd say it is a given Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev, Hainsey and Dermott are full time defenders. So the HUGE IF, who is the 6th. guy? If you're losing sleep over the 6th. guy is it because you're worried Hainsey is going to be knocked down to a position he is more appropriately suited to? I could easily see a UFA signing for depth on defense, perhaps a slight upgrade on "1st. pairing" Hainsey. Ozhiganov is going to get a Zaitsev opportunity.

So now about the sleepless nights worrying about the forwards?

1. Matthews, 2. Marner, 3. Nylander, 4. Kadri, 5. Marleau, 6. Hyman, 7. Brown, 8. Kapanen

So need 4 more, 3 for the 4th. line.

1. Johnsson 23-24 years old. PPG in the AHL, >PPG in the AHL playoffs. Top 9 player.

2. Leivo 25, NHL ready, and don't forget we aren't talking top 6 or even top 9 player position here.
3. Martin 29, NHL veteran situational player
4. Aaltonen 25 year old, good season in the minors in his first year.
5. Lindholm 26 year old, veteran professional in Sweden.
6. Wild Cards Grundstrom, Marchment, Moore, UFA
7. Where did he come from? Dang, I didn't know you could sign players in the off-season. And he can play center? Head explodes.
8. Clean up the plastic from the oceans. It isn't that it is impossible to do it is that no one is doing it.

 

[Boutette]

I think the 3rd. line will be easily replaced with regards to the 17000 square feet of ice surface.

Additionally, I think we can add a minute or two to Matthews deployment. So that takes care of 2 minutes of Bozak's ice time.

Why do people continue to believe players who are moved are not being replaced?

It isn't like teams don't replace players, and to begin with the team they put on the ice failed anyway! People want a repeat of last season?

Really, only 2 full time forwards are potentially moving on. Bozak and van Riemsdyk. Komarov has already become a replaceable / situational player. Others were part-time players, and wouldn't likely beat out some of the Marlies on a level playing surface.

Time doesn't stand still and players age out of the game continuously and that won't change.

We already know Kapanen is a permanent member of the team. It is likely Johnsson is finished with the minors. Neither of them were starters last season opener.

van Riemsdyk scored plenty, but he was the beneficiary of the work done by his teammates. He did not generate scoring chances, he finished scoring chances. van Riemsdyk scored 25 even strength goals, based on the work of his teammates. Those goals may not be replaced by one player but they don't need to be. Bozak 8 even strength goals is by design ... get the puck to the net for van Riemsdyk to score. Get a center who isn't focused on setting up a finisher and you don't need 25 even strength goals from van Riemsdyk, and as for PP goals, Matthews is going to be getting more opportunity on the PP going forward.

Are Marlies replacing van Riemsdyk and Bozak? That's quite possible, or perhaps Bozak replaces Bozak.

Are there going to be new players on the team? I certainly hope so! Who wants to keep putting out something that isn't working?

Dermott is a given, and I believe another Marlies defender will be on the team, and there are several options. I'd say it is a given Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev, Hainsey and Dermott are full time defenders. So the HUGE IF, who is the 6th. guy? If you're losing sleep over the 6th. guy is it because you're worried Hainsey is going to be knocked down to a position he is more appropriately suited to? I could easily see a UFA signing for depth on defense, perhaps a slight upgrade on "1st. pairing" Hainsey. Ozhiganov is going to get a Zaitsev opportunity.

So now about the sleepless nights worrying about the forwards?

1. Matthews, 2. Marner, 3. Nylander, 4. Kadri, 5. Marleau, 6. Hyman, 7. Brown, 8. Kapanen

So need 4 more, 3 for the 4th. line.

1. Johnsson 23-24 years old. PPG in the AHL, >PPG in the AHL playoffs. Top 9 player.

2. Leivo 25, NHL ready, and don't forget we aren't talking top 6 or even top 9 player position here.
3. Martin 29, NHL veteran situational player
4. Aaltonen 25 year old, good season in the minors in his first year.
5. Lindholm 26 year old, veteran professional in Sweden.
6. Wild Cards Grundstrom, Marchment, Moore, UFA
7. Where did he come from? Dang, I didn't know you could sign players in the off-season. And he can play center? Head explodes.
8. Clean up the plastic from the oceans. It isn't that it is impossible to do it is that no one is doing it.

To add figures to your supposition, Bozak (who many have noted is one of our best shootout scorers) has seen a precipitous drop in shooting percentage over the past 4 years (21% to 7%) while JVR has seen his goal totals increase from the mid 20s to mid 30s. I don't think that's a coincidence either. If the Leafs do retain Bozak, its reasonable to expect, with the likes of a Johnsson, Grundstrom, Leivo and/or Kapanen on his wing instead of a tip in specialist, and get back to shooting to score instead of shooting low percentage lobs at JvR for a tipin, bounce back to the 12-15% shooting percentage he's capable of. Or you maybe pick up someone else who's got a better than worst on the forward squad shooting percentage as your 3rd line center.

 

[-DeMo-]

Do you think our third line is not going to be sheltered like it was this past year? If so, who gets the gift of all the offensive zone starts that JvR and Bozak got? and how does that effect their numbers? And how does the fact that Johnsson and Kapanen are highly regarded for their defensive play and speed compared to JvR and Bozak figure in as well?

I'm not sure how the bolded continues to get brought into our conversation, not once have I mentioned the defensive side of the game, because it has nothing to do with our disagreement among the players, the idea that these 3 will EASILY match JVR/Bozak/Komarov offensive output is wrong imo, heck you pointed out you expect Johnsson and Kapanen to both score 25 goals, that would mean they would both have scored more goals then Marner and Nylander did this past season, again unlikely especially in a 3rd or 4th line role.

Edit: sorry the bolded was someone else

 

[Liminality]

You don't need to bad mouth the team to "average out" the reality. A poster like Nithothiniel posts nothing but facts and doesn't have to bad mouth the team.

Exactly, they don't need to bad mouth the Leafs so that other fans think they're less biased or neutral. It just comes across that they're trying really hard to be accepted by other fan bases if they don't give their reasoning or evidence.

 

[Mess]

How greenhorn GM Dubas is able and plans to replace pending UFAs will be key to determining if the Leafs increase in the standings or decline next year from this years results.

The maturation of the 3 Amigos will help soften the blow as 3rd years for players is when you usually see exponential improvement now after 2 years in the league experience.

Leafs are still soft, small and skilled but that area of weakness also needs to be addressed throughout the roster to see the Leafs being able to match up better against bigger stronger teams not just fast skilled ones.

I think the potential for a slight step back from last year is entirely possible.

Lets see Dubas in action at the draft and UFA season to see if he is the shining star in the making Shanny believes he is.

 

[Sypher04]

I'm not sure how the bolded continues to get brought into our conversation, not once have I mentioned the defensive side of the game, because it has nothing to do with our disagreement among the players, the idea that these 3 will EASILY match JVR/Bozak/Komarov offensive output is wrong imo, heck you pointed out you expect Johnsson and Kapanen to both score 25 goals, that would mean they would both have scored more goals then Marner and Nylander did this past season, again unlikely especially in a 3rd or 4th line role.

Edit: sorry the bolded was someone else

Why would we expect 2 players to replace the offense of 3 though?

Kapanen and Johnsson are capable of replacing a good deal of the offense JVR/Bozak contribute. Obviously if they will is another thing altogether, but as early as this coming season, I could see each of them putting up in the ballpark of 15 goals, and 40 points.... Maybe more.

I also think, JVR, Bozak & Komarov out of the way opens opportunity for Brown to increase his production. I mean, he had 20 goals in year one, 14 last year. I think it's clear he could give us more.

That offense will be replaced collectively, but I still think it's as likely we take a step forward offensively next year as anything else.

 

[Boutette]

I'm not sure how the bolded continues to get brought into our conversation, not once have I mentioned the defensive side of the game, because it has nothing to do with our disagreement among the players, the idea that these 3 will EASILY match JVR/Bozak/Komarov offensive output is wrong imo, heck you pointed out you expect Johnsson and Kapanen to both score 25 goals, that would mean they would both have scored more goals then Marner and Nylander did this past season, again unlikely especially in a 3rd or 4th line role.

Edit: sorry the bolded was someone else

Actually, I only stated I expect Kapanen to score 25 goals based on how he well has scored with offensive black holes as linemates on 4th line minutes, I do believe Johnsson will get around 40 points if he is also given 3rd line usage. And since we are talking about 3rd line play not 4th line since we are discussing replacing JvR and Bozak (who again, you ignore their massively sheltered offensive role this past year) my projection is based on 3rd line usage similar to what JvR and Bozak were gifted with over the past 2 years. So, I have little doubt that a third line featuring both of those players can garner 116 pts over a full season. And to add to that, their ability to be effective defensively is not irrelevant with regards to their offense, because that means instead of standing around watching other teams dominate the defensive zone when their are on the ice, Johnsson and Kapanen are capable of actively turning around the play and being amazingly dangerous off the rush with their speed, something which JvR and Bozak aren't really known for, eh?

 

[Cor]

The Funny thing about this, is that the Leafs could literally do nothing, and realistically have a better season than last year.

 

[ottomaddox]

Why would I choose the nickname I have if I was 17? Think about it. You dismissed my question of how you imagine the four teams who fell many points behind Toronto (each of whom have *less* cap space than the Leafs, by the way) this past year by claiming, but... but... but they could magically pull a Vegas!! Or somehow their orgs are going to produce a Matthews, Nylander, Marner+++ as the Leafs did to pull themselves out of the basement (ignoring the fact that Toronto wasn't as bad as their 69pt last place record suggested) out of thin air. How is that an argument? Context actually exists in the real world. Each season isn't the total 'reset button' you claim it to be.

Too many "buts". The answer to all your firing line questions is no.

 

[Sweet Leaf]

I think we would be better off with Leivo anyways.
.

These sort of statements shake my faith in humanity.

 

[tmlfan98]

I think it's more likely that we win the cup next year than miss the playoffs.

 

[Boutette]

Why would we expect 2 players to replace the offense of 3 though?

Kapanen and Johnsson are capable of replacing a good deal of the offense JVR/Bozak contribute. Obviously if they will is another thing altogether, but as early as this coming season, I could see each of them putting up in the ballpark of 15 goals, and 40 points.... Maybe more.

I also think, JVR, Bozak & Komarov out of the way opens opportunity for Brown to increase his production. I mean, he had 20 goals in year one, 14 last year. I think it's clear he could give us more.

That offense will be replaced collectively, but I still think it's as likely we take a step forward offensively next year as anything else.

I agree. The team has enough players with offensive upsides that potentially if you put Johnsson up with Matthews and Hyman (perhaps slightly less effective than with Nylander), you have the option of two potential 3rd lines at the bottom of the roster, lets say a sheltered 3A Grunstrom-Nylander-Kapanen line specializing in speed and a 3B line of a Leivo-Aaltonen/Lindberg-Brown line specializing in possession, something that will give opposition coaches a headache trying to contain with most 3rd/4th line plugs many teams with lest depth have to utilize. Imagine a typical 4th line of players with the skill levels of a Martin-Moore-Komarov trying to contain one of those two lines.

And that's assuming the leafs spend all their available cap strictly on improving the quality of the team's defense corp (which I'll agree is unlikely).

 

[Mickey Marner]

Moore, Plekanec, Komorov and Polak leaving is addition by subtraction.

We can reasonably expect JVR's internal replacement to put up 20/20+ if given similar ice time and role. We definitely need to find a long-term bottom-6 center to replace Bozak and allows us to stop trading 2nd rounders for them at the deadline.

 

[Mugzy97]

The Funny thing about this, is that the Leafs could literally do nothing, and realistically have a better season than last year.

Agreed. Our best players are still so young and it's like people assume they will stagnate. Matthews is only going to get better, maybe even explode. Marner already exploded but only for the second half of the season. These kids are gonna keep getting better.