Speculation: Too many "ifs" next season should make Toronto struggle make the playoffs

[Nineteen67]

Regardless of what you think about the players lost and who may or may not replace them, were in a three team division and three teams per division are guaranteed a birth in the playoffs.

Let’s hope the other two teams are the ones occupied with fatherhood. ......

 

[Notsince67]

Marner will compete for the Art ross IMO.

McDavid vs McMarner

 

[LeafsNation75]

If Andersen doesn’t stand on his head and steal 5 games they are in a battle for a P.O. spot this year.

I expect them to take a step back next year and they’ll be in a battle for a playoff spot, but I will wait until the roster is finalized before placing a bet.

The Leafs could also do very well again in the shootout next season and hopefully it means they are in a battle for a top 3 spot in the Atlantic compared to a Wild Card spot.

Look at how their shootout success helped them compared to 2017 when they were 1-8 and just made the playoffs.

 

[LeafChief]

Many fans seem to have little concern about the roster next season. I think many fans think that most of the UFA holes will be filled with graduating Marlies.

Polak, JVR, Moore, Bozak, Plekanec, and Komarov potentially all gone.

That's a grand total of 6 players to replace.

I know many of you can name off every Marlie plus Leivo and I still wouldn't be satisfied.

On paper the current team plus Polak, JVR, Moore, Bozak, Plekanec, and Komarov means 2nd or 3rd in the Atlantic. This current team plus all the "ifs" means no playoffs or possibly a wildcard spot.

The "ifs" are from a positive fans' perspective: if we trade for a D, if we find a couple of centers to replace the 3 that we lost, if the Marlies play well as NHLers, if Nylander plays center, if our elite prospects take a step, if no other Atlantic conference team takes a step, etc.

I just can't see us hitting a homerun with free agency, contracts, trades, and our Marlie Graduates creating a better team next year.

IMHO leaf fans can't be comfortable with this offseason, and I really can't see TOR to be better than a wildcard team.

Do you think TOR will be better next season? How so?

lol

 

[Nineteen67]

The Leafs could also do very well again in the shootout next season and hopefully it means they are in a battle for a top 3 spot in the Atlantic compared to a Wild Card spot.

Look at how their shootout success helped them compared to 2017 when they were 1-8 and just made the playoffs.

Bozak may be gone. That’s 3 OT/shootout points that’ll need to be replaced.

 

[Fogelhund]

I do expect that some players will get better, but most are at their ceiling.
Keep in mind they were closer to missing the playoffs than they were to winning the division.
I also expect at least 2 teams to make the playoffs that didn’t make it this year.
I think the Leafs will be in a battle all year.

Over half of the team will have two years or less playing experience... but most are at their ceiling?

I don't disagree with the rest of what you are saying, but this is a young and growing team....

 

[LeafsNation75]

Bozak may be gone. That’s 3 OT/shootout points that’ll need to be replaced.

While Bozak was very good this past season in the shootout, the previous season when the Leafs were 1-8 in the shootout he was not. Besides that Matthews and Marner were also just as clutch in that situation compared to their rookie seasons.

 

[Nineteen67]

While Bozak was very good this past season in the shootout, the previous season when the Leafs were 1-8 in the shootout he was not. Besides that Matthews and Marner were also just as clutch in that situation compared to their rookie seasons.

I think Bozak won the only shoot in the previous season.
What was Marners record in the SO? At one point this year he couldn’t shoot a “lifty” and was ineffective.

 

[Cor]

I guess we’ll see once the puck drops on the home opener tomorrow

 

[LeafsNation75]

I think Bozak won the only shoot in the previous season.
What was Marners record in the SO? At one point this year he couldn’t shoot a “lifty” and was ineffective.

When the Leafs went 1-8 in the shootout during the 2016-2017 season it was Marner who scored the winning goal. Besides that I believe Matthews was the only other player score in the shootout for the whole season besides Marner.

 

[Advanced stats]

@heybuddyhowyadoing
Do you really think losing one 2nd liner, one 3rd liner and a bunch of 4th line crap is going to hurt us that much?

Hyman-Matthews-Willy
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Johansson - UFA - Kapanen
Brown - Lindholm - Grudstrom/Aaltonen

Definitely a playoff caliber offense.

 

[IPS]

Still some of our fanbase is yet to realize that our roster has legitimate elite talent that makes us a lock for the playoffs for now and the very distant future.

Dear god to people seriously think that the difference between missing and making playoffs is f***ing Komarov/JVR/Bozak??

As far as Polak and Komarov go - make no mistake about it, just because Babcock is head over heels in love with them it doesn't mean they're good or effective players. In fact, there's a lot of statistical evidence indicating we're better teams without them in the lineup.

And as far as JVR and Bozak goes - let's be real here. JVR is a very talented goal-scorer who benefitted on a lot of PP goals created by Marner and Bozak is a 3rd line center who requires sheltering to have any sort of positive impact on the team. These guys absolutely blow at ES.

 

[PromisedLand]

Hyman-Matthews-Kapanen
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
UFA-Nylander-Brown
Johnsson-Alt-Leivo

PP1
Matthews-Nylander-Kapanen-Marleau-Rielly

PP2
Kadri-Marner-Leivo-Kapanen-Garidiner/Dermott/Zaitsev

Except for potentially marginally weak 2nd PP unit; I think the line up is much better. If some how we got Tavares or some other half decent top 6 that can play 2-way hockey; we are even better

Not sure what is OP's concern to be honest

 

[Nineteen67]

Hyman-Matthews-Kapanen
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
UFA-Nylander-Brown
Johnsson-Alt-Leivo

PP1
Matthews-Nylander-Kapanen-Marleau-Rielly

PP2
Kadri-Marner-Leivo-Kapanen-Garidiner/Dermott/Zaitsev

Except for potentially marginally weak 2nd PP unit; I think the line up is much better. If some how we got Tavares or some other half decent top 6 that can play 2-way hockey; we are even better

Not sure what is OP's concern to be honest

They won’t sign a UFA winger to play with Nylander when they already have 600 of them.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I do expect that some players will get better, but most are at their ceiling.
Keep in mind they were closer to missing the playoffs than they were to winning the division.
I also expect at least 2 teams to make the playoffs that didn’t make it this year.
I think the Leafs will be in a battle all year.

what the f*** are you talking about? Ignoring that most of our important players are in their early 20s, Leafs were 9 points from winning the division and 10 points from missing the playoffs

 

[ottomaddox]

@heybuddyhowyadoing
Do you really think losing one 2nd liner, one 3rd liner and a bunch of 4th line crap is going to hurt us that much?

Hyman-Matthews-Willy
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Johansson - UFA - Kapanen
Brown - Lindholm - Grudstrom/Aaltonen

Definitely a playoff caliber offense.

What about the defense? No. Don't answer that.

^This is another "if". If Babcock decides to play that many Marlies graduates. If they play well enough to be NHLers. If Matthews can win faceoffs vs. other 1st line centers...

 

[MR4]

Lol can easily get the same production of the main 3 UFAs out of Johnsson/Kapanen/Aaltonen. While they improve our 2 way game tenfold. Not worried at all

 

[member 300185]

Many fans seem to have little concern about the roster next season. I think many fans think that most of the UFA holes will be filled with graduating Marlies.

Polak, JVR, Moore, Bozak, Plekanec, and Komarov potentially all gone.

That's a grand total of 6 players to replace.

I know many of you can name off every Marlie plus Leivo and I still wouldn't be satisfied.

On paper the current team plus Polak, JVR, Moore, Bozak, Plekanec, and Komarov means 2nd or 3rd in the Atlantic. This current team plus all the "ifs" means no playoffs or possibly a wildcard spot.

The "ifs" are from a positive fans' perspective: if we trade for a D, if we find a couple of centers to replace the 3 that we lost, if the Marlies play well as NHLers, if Nylander plays center, if our elite prospects take a step, if no other Atlantic conference team takes a step, etc.

I just can't see us hitting a homerun with free agency, contracts, trades, and our Marlie Graduates creating a better team next year.

IMHO leaf fans can't be comfortable with this offseason, and I really can't see TOR to be better than a wildcard team.

Do you think TOR will be better next season? How so?

I find pessimists irritating. They will make the playoffs and get to at least 109 points. Book it.

 

[Menzinger]

The division make up will ensure the Leafs essentially make the playoffs next season, barring any disaster like Andersen, Matthews, Nylander, Marner all getting concussions in the first game. Habs, Sens, sabres are all still going to be tire fires.

As for the UFAs, JVR and to a much lesser extent Bozak are the only two that may hurt the team, but I think the younger guys will surprise, especially Johnsson. And that’s not even taking into account the fact that the Leafs may get some good players via free agency/trade too this summer.

The biggest concern shouldn’t be making the playoffs, it’ll be how to finally get passed the first round

Edit: there’s also internal improvement from the big three as they will be on the cusp of entering their prime years.

 

[Buds17]

Too early to tell at this point. Would have to see rosters going into next season (ours and those of competing teams), and there's always the potential of injuries - or lack thereof - and such that can impede or propel a team. Hoping there isn't a step back, though a better playoff run would negate an equal or poorer regular season finish.

 

[Nineteen67]

what the **** are you talking about? Ignoring that most of our important players are in their early 20s, Leafs were 9 points from winning the division and 10 points from missing the playoffs

Hyman-about as good as he’ll be
Matthews- if he’s not injured he’s a top 10 player in the league
Kapanen - has to be better
Marleau- about as good as he’ll be
Kadri-about as good as he’ll be
Marner- might be their best player, has to be better in his own end
Nylander- should get better but probably gonna have to put up with his soft D
Brown-wysiwyg
Leivo- who knows
Who else plays forward?

Gardiner- about as good as he’ll be
Reilly- about as good as he’ll be
Hainsey- won’t be as good
Carrick- ?
Dermott should get better

Goalies unless the D philosophy changes they’ll be required to stand on their heads but they are about as good as they’ll ever be

 

[Nineteen67]

Too early to tell at this point. Would have to see rosters going into next season (ours and those of competing teams), and there's always the potential of injuries - or lack thereof - and such that can impede or propel a team. Hoping there isn't a step back, though a better playoff run would negate an equal or poorer regular season finish.

Exactly

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Hyman-about as good as he’ll be
Matthews- if he’s not injured he’s a top 10 player in the league
Kapanen - has to be better
Marleau- about as good as he’ll be
Kadri-about as good as he’ll be
Marner- might be their best player, has to be better in his own end
Nylander- should get better but probably gonna have to put up with his soft D
Brown-wysiwyg
Leivo- who knows
Who else plays forward?

Gardiner- about as good as he’ll be
Reilly- about as good as he’ll be
Hainsey- won’t be as good
Carrick- ?
Dermott should get better

Goalies unless the D philosophy changes they’ll be required to stand on their heads but they are about as good as they’ll ever be

Hyman - Probably won't improve much
Matthews - Will improve
Nylander - Will improve
Marner - Will improve
Kapanen - Will improve
Kadri - won't improve much
Johnsson - Will improve
Brown - Might improve, who knows
those are the only forwards who will be on the team two years from now who played this year. The rest will be guys like Aaltonen, Bracco, Gauthier, Moore, Engvall or outside the organization.

Gardiner - probably as good as he'll be, but might be moved out
Rielly - will improve
Dermott - will improve
Carrick - will improve
Zaitsev - will improve

plus Liljegren will be a beast.

overall, the future looks pretty good for the Leafs

 

[Martin Skoula]

What about the defense? No. Don't answer that.

^This is another "if". If Babcock decides to play that many Marlies graduates. If they play well enough to be NHLers. If Matthews can win faceoffs vs. other 1st line centers...

So Babcock's not going to play any Marlies graduates, we're not going to sign any UFAs of note, and no trades will be made to fill our holes, while every other team in our division is going to do all of those things and get better.

Well when you put it that way, you're right, I guess it is time to panic.

 

[-DeMo-]

Lol can easily get the same production of the main 3 UFAs out of Johnsson/Kapanen/Aaltonen. While they improve our 2 way game tenfold. Not worried at all

the three main UFA's put up 116 points and 54 goals it's laughable to think those 3 will easily beat those numbers...