Speculation: Too many "ifs" next season should make Toronto struggle make the playoffs

[Boutette]

the three main UFA's put up 116 points and 54 goals it's laughable to think those 3 will easily beat those numbers...

No, but they are likely to match those numbers and prevent more goals from going into the leafs net when they are on the ice since each of those players are effective 2 way players. Hockey isn't Golf. Goals Against actually matters as much as Goals For, even if has never mattered to JvR, Bozak and Komarov is not longer able to be effective at doing anything at an NHL level any more.

 

[-DeMo-]

No, but they are likely to match those numbers and prevent more goals from going into the leafs net when they are on the ice since each of those players are effective 2 way players. Hockey isn't Golf. Goals Against actually matters as much as Goals For, even if has never mattered to JvR, Bozak and Komarov is not longer able to be effective at doing anything at an NHL level any more.

no they are not... that would mean they have to average 40 points each... that wont happen, or is extremely unlikely to happen. and I never said anything about the rest simply pointed out the offensive output of those 3 will most likely not be matched by Kapanen/Johnsson/Altonen the last of which might not even make the team.

 

[Boutette]

no they are not... that would mean they have to average 40 points each... that wont happen, or is extremely unlikely to happen. and I never said anything about the rest simply pointed out the offensive output of those 3 will most likely not be matched by Kapanen/Johnsson/Altonen the last of which might not even make the team.

I guess you aren't aware how sheltered JvR and Bozak were. Kapanen scored at a 15 goal pace while playing with Plekanec and Komarov. Johnson at a 30pt pace on 4th line minutes. Both had comparable shooting percentages to what the 3rd line managed. And maybe Aaltonen might not make the team, but Nylander could be their center, which makes 120pts even more likely, and again, with much better overall defence and the speed to score off the rush, unlike JvR and Bozak who had to be spoonfed offensive starts.

 

[MR4]

the three main UFA's put up 116 points and 54 goals it's laughable to think those 3 will easily beat those numbers...

"Get the same" not easily beat..

Boutette summed it up nicely above

Kapanen = 25/20/45
Johnsson = 25/25/50
Aaltonen = 10/10/20

That's pretty solid bets with the 2 main guys AJ & KK getting PP time and top 9 icetime

 

[Menzinger]

the three main UFA's put up 116 points and 54 goals it's laughable to think those 3 will easily beat those numbers...

A healthy Matthews could realistically put up 25-30 points extra on his own.

In abstraction that 116 point number seems large, but looking at how that number can be reached it seems not all that far off. If the Leafs can average about 30 points each for those three replacement players (which is realistically in reach) you’ve reached that number with improvement from the big three (if not surpass it)

Edit: expanded the response

 

[BertCorbeau]

KK and AJ each getting 25 is a bit of a stretch, but I think 15 would be a reasonable expectation and 20 would be a good campaign.

Still it's not all about the points - it's about the solid two-way game that should improve the team defensively and reduce goals at the other end.

 

[Marshy]

Tavares is good for 30+50... We'll be fine.

 

[-DeMo-]

I guess you aren't aware how sheltered JvR and Bozak were. Kapanen scored at a 15 goal pace while playing with Plekanec and Komarov. Johnson at a 30pt pace on 4th line minutes. Both had comparable shooting percentages to what the 3rd line managed. And maybe Aaltonen might not make the team, but Nylander could be their center, which makes 120pts even more likely, and again, with much better overall defence and the speed to score off the rush, unlike JvR and Bozak who had to be spoonfed offensive starts.

9 game sample for Johnsson isn't enough games to pro-rate anything, and Kapanen has 13 points in 68 career games in the NHL including playoffs. I expect 30-35 points for Kapanen and 25-30 for Johnsson both of which would be solid first full season's in the NHL. they will be playing behind Brown/Hyman/Marner/Marleau and maybe Nylander should he start on the wing. so there not going to get top minutes and 1 may even play on the fourth line.

A healthy Matthews could realistically put up 25-30 points extra on his own.

In abstraction that 116 point number seems large, but looking at how that number can be reached it seems not all that far off. If the Leafs can average about 30 points each for those three replacement players (which is realistically in reach) you’ve reached that number with improvement from the big three (if not surpass it)

Edit: expanded the response

my post had nothing to do with making up the offense by the other top players on the team, I quoted someone who said Kapanen/Johnsson/Altonen will easily match JVR/Bozak and Komarov's offensive output themselves. which I think even in this post you clearly don't agree with that assetsment.

 

[-DeMo-]

"Get the same" not easily beat..

Boutette summed it up nicely above

Kapanen = 25/20/45
Johnsson = 25/25/50
Aaltonen = 10/10/20

That's pretty solid bets with the 2 main guys AJ & KK getting PP time and top 9 icetime

I'm sorry but expecting those goal totals from the top 2 and 50 points from Johnsson would put him in the ROY conversation, I mean your telling me he's going to outscore Marleau and be within 5 points of Kadri?

 

[Menzinger]

9 game sample for Johnsson isn't enough games to pro-rate anything, and Kapanen has 13 points in 68 career games in the NHL including playoffs. I expect 30-35 points for Kapanen and 25-30 for Johnsson both of which would be solid first full season's in the NHL. they will be playing behind Brown/Hyman/Marner/Marleau and maybe Nylander should he start on the wing. so there not going to get top minutes and 1 may even play on the fourth line.



my post had nothing to do with making up the offense by the other top players on the team, I quoted someone who said Kapanen/Johnsson/Altonen will easily match JVR/Bozak and Komarov's offensive output themselves. which I think even in this post you clearly don't agree with that assetsment.

I know, I wasn’t trying to argue, just provide wider context about how that number could be reached.

Think you're undervaluing Johnsson though. I think he’s likely going to be better offensively in the NHL than Kapanen, at least as far as next season goes. He’s older, in his prime years already and seems to have more sharper offensive instincts at the NHL level (albeit based on a small sample size). Think he can hit 35-40 points.

 

[ottomaddox]

Many of you are running with "ifs" again. If:

Aaltonen plays for TOR.
Johnsson gets top 6 minutes
Kasperi Kapanen goes from elite prospect to elite NHLer (a whole 1 point in 7 playoff games)

It is likely that some of these players slide in and play next year. I just don't have a lot of faith that it will be seamless. That is why I think they are going to have a tougher time making the playoffs. This is why I don't think that this offseason will be easy. Dubas has his work cut out for him.

Just to add to this: TOR does not appear to be close to what WSH and VGK have in terms of skill, grit, compete, defensive responsibility, goaltending, etc.

 

[ACC1224]

Season starts in 4 months.

 

[rent free]

They will be worse in terms of goals scored, points, penalty kill, and the same defensively (terrible). I wouldn't be surprised if Andersen regresses too.

 

[Liminality]

They will be worse in terms of goals scored, points, penalty kill, and the same defensively (terrible). I wouldn't be surprised if Andersen regresses too.

I'm not sure you like anything about this team.

 

[rent free]

I'm not sure you like anything about this team.

I like some things. Not many but some.

 

[Gallagbi]

Many of you are running with "ifs" again. If:

Aaltonen plays for TOR.
Johnsson gets top 6 minutes
Kasperi Kapanen goes from elite prospect to elite NHLer (a whole 1 point in 7 playoff games)

It is likely that some of these players slide in and play next year. I just don't have a lot of faith that it will be seamless. That is why I think they are going to have a tougher time making the playoffs. This is why I don't think that this offseason will be easy. Dubas has his work cut out for him.

Just to add to this: TOR does not appear to be close to what WSH and VGK have in terms of skill, grit, compete, defensive responsibility, goaltending, etc.

You're also operating under assumptions yourself.

Most don't think it will be seamless, but many think it will equal a similar caliber team.

 

[ottomaddox]

You're also operating under assumptions yourself.

Most don't think it will be seamless, but many think it will equal a similar caliber team.

Perhaps I am generalizing, but if you go through recent threads and polls you can see that some (perhaps the majority) feel that as many as 4 of these Calder Marlies will make the big club. I don't include Dermott and Johnsson because they were given an opportunity to play in late in the season and in the NHL playoffs.

Perhaps this idea of 4 players making it to the big club prevails because this is HFBoards. Part of my opinion is influenced by Babcock's tendencies to play vets until younger players are "overripe".

It's possible that Dubas will have to hit a homerun through free agency and trades for TOR to be a similar caliber team.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You're also operating under assumptions yourself.

Most don't think it will be seamless, but many think it will equal a similar caliber team.

Agreed, I'm in the "similar" camp myself.

Hard to make predictions without seeing our opening day roster but we'll probably finish 3rd in our division again. Unless we get Tavares, then 1st place is a possibility. Hard to see us dropping to bubble team status, not sure why anyone would think that. We lost some vets but some young players will improve etc., it's not complicated.

 

[LeafFever]

The Leafs have more talent than the 2 teams in the finals right now. They are not missing the playoffs. Ridiculous. And Komorov is addition by subtraction BTW.

 

[Liminality]

I like some things. Not many but some.

What do you like about this team? All I ever see is you bad mouthing them. (and to try and post in as many threads as possible)

 

[ottomaddox]

Agreed, I'm in the "similar" camp myself.

Hard to make predictions without seeing our opening day roster but we'll probably finish 3rd in our division again. Unless we get Tavares, then 1st place is a possibility. Hard to see us dropping to bubble team status, not sure why anyone would think that. We lost some vets but some young players will improve etc., it's not complicated.

I really wish it were simple, but many people are posting last year's blueprint and that didn't happen. Leivo, Kap, Johnsson, etc. were all supposed to replace our expiring contracts. There were many that wanted JVR, Boz, and Komi gone at the deadline.

 

[Sypher04]

I don't see any major cause for concern personally.

Yes, we're likely going to lose most, if not all of JVR, Bozak, Komarov, Plekanec, Moore and Polak, but with half of them, what are we really losing?

- Komarov: bad year. Offensively and defensively ineffective. Slow. Not engaged. He was moved down the line-up and eventually removed completely in the playoffs.
- Plekanec: mostly useless. Sure he played a few good playoff games, but this team that to finished the regular season with a franchise record in points at 105 (based largely on the backs of sophomore players who will improve) got 17 garbage regular season games from him where he was virtually invisible. He won't be missed.
- Moore: in and out of the line up. Effectively enough when he was there, but clearly not what Babcock wanted. A 4th line center of Moore's ilk isn't exactly a role we should expect to have major issues replacing.

Regarding the other three:

- JVR: hurts the most. While not particularly responsible two-way, he is a well rounded offensive player. Elite in front the net even. His offense will need to be replaced by committee. Luckily, we seem to have plenty of guys who are capable of more offensive production if their roles are increased.
- Bozak: 2nd biggest loss easily. His faceoffs are his best asset. His offense falls in the, I think it can be made up category. Much like JVR's will need to be tried, but yes, that remains to be seen.
- Polak: utterly replaceable.

The internal solutions:

Brown: JVR and Bozak placed 8th and 9th on the team in terms of even strength point production with 34 and 30 respectively. I believe most would agree Brown had a step back this year offensively, but he also didn't get much opportunity, and the 2nd powerplay was ice cold. He put up 25 of his 28 points even strength. There is without question more to give here.

Kapanen and Johnsson both finding spots in our top 9 instead of on the 4th line, should provide a decent chunk of offense as well.

 

[Liminality]

I really wish it were simple, but many people are posting last year's blueprint and that didn't happen. Leivo, Kap, Johnsson, etc. were all supposed to replace our expiring contracts. There were many that wanted JVR, Boz, and Komi gone at the deadline.

So you're sad they didn't move those contracts before and now you're sad we're not the same team as last year?

Those guys are replacing those contracts, it's a bit early to give up on the team when free agency hasn't even hit and we're months away from the season start.

 

[Sypher04]

Kasperi Kapanen goes from elite prospect to elite NHLer (a whole 1 point in 7 playoff games)

You do recognize that the guy played on our 4th line, right? There seems no doubt that he's going to be given more opportunity next year both 5 on 5 and likely finally with some powerplay minutes.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I think Dubas will make some moves to improve the team. Playoffs aren't a worry. It's improving on the results from the past two years