Confirmed with Link: Tom Wilson re-signed 7 x $6.5 for $45.5 Million

[StrikingDistance]

This contract will be a mistake.

Kinda has the same feeling when I check this board before going out on a Friday night.

#regrets

 

[um]

I can buy Wilson not aging as well as the Caps would like, but why would he suddenly become terrible defensively? As soon as this season he's going to be a liability? What?

Actually looking closer they've had Wilson as a negative impact player defensively before. I'm calling BS on that.

 

[Langway]

They could actually make a few really great UFA plays or value moves and be so significantly well set up for the next decade, it's honestly baffling to me that people don't appreciate what GMBM is actually doing here.

A lot of it is because some of their contracts are just immovable, though, so it's hard to give too much credit for what's essentially been more of an ownership level strategy that they don't have much choice about at this stage. Who's to say ownership won't mandate spending on a B class a couple years from now if that's how the market shapes up? Flexibility in itself is not necessarily enough in a given class if there's little supply. You wonder in particular while Ovechkin is still around whether they'd resist signing an available B player in order to keep space open for more of an A talent. I wouldn't think so and most years UFA is folly. It's good for value plays at times but drafting and developing remains where it's at. It's where they're going to have to snag some significant victories. We'll see. Some expiring contracts could line up brilliantly. Or not. Who knows.

The rising cap will lead to many inflated contracts. Before you know it $6.5M will seem like peanuts so it's a good time to lock in players to term before inflation really sets in. I think my question is whether they'll still be at the point where value plays or UFA plays are still adequate to be more than a (still) declining bubble team. They may wind up being too cooked to not seriously tear it back more. But at least while Ovechkin is still around that's probably not happening for a prolonged period so you've got to wonder whether it won't lead to further sub-optimal makeshift decisions.

The wings are well stocked going forward with quite a bit of upside. But the C/D situation remains pretty poor and those positions will always be scarce and in high demand. How they go about filling those spots at the top will mean everything. How Strome & Sandin manage to improve further and perhaps take on more of a leadership role will be key. From more of a pace standpoint, though, I'm not one to believe those two are likely to lead the charge for more of a division winner level team. And that may be part of their dilemma. Overall I doubt even with cap space that some of their issues will be easy to fix in a given off-season. I mean, maybe Draisaitl does hit the market in a couple years. Who knows. But it's hard to tip your cap too heavily until moves are made. They could in theory have room to bring more of a prime impact player, albeit probably not at bargain rate. But I'm not sure it's a lock to believe they'll be getting enough surplus value overall to kick back up more firmly toward the top.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Did we hear any reports of a NTC? Twabby could have 7 more seasons of trade WIlson LOL

 

[StrikingDistance]

My .02:

With the Cap going up, in 2 or 3 years this contract will look like chump change.

Every team in the league would of offered him that contract or more.

Finally, I think Oshie's evaluation of Willy is a lot more meaningful than our opinions.

So, 'suck it' haters and have a nice weekend!

 

[Calicaps]

LOL. To me, Jimmie’s = Banana Hammocks. Not the tool persay, but more “the support” of said tool.

It’s akin to “getting panties in a bunch” (which is extremely sexist and I’d NEVER ever ever use it )

I hate when that happens. So uncomfortable.

Suck it. I concur.

I this so much. These guys love each other, the franchise, the city, and the fans. And it's all reciprocated. Folks can bitch all they want about xWar and our old core and the term of this deal and whatever, but this shit matters. All the youngsters in the system and to come will walk into the room and they'll find passion, leadership, friendship, commitment. And they'll learn from champions. And the future is brighter for it.

 

[twabby]

Did we hear any reports of a NTC? Twabby could have 7 more seasons of trade WIlson LOL

15 team no trade list the first 4 years, 10 team no trade list the last 3 years.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

15 team no trade list the first 4 years, 10 team no trade list the last 3 years.

He still seems pretty easy to trade to a contender if things blow up.

I dont understand why he would go 900k the last 2 seasons with a larger bonus

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Not sure what's better: having Wilson long term, or the tears of the #fancystatsboiz

 

[Calicaps]

Not sure what's better: having Wilson long term, or the tears of the #fancystatsboiz

the answer is the main board tears.

 

[Holtbyisms]

The overreacting in this thread is ridiculous. We all knew TW was signing a max or close to it term deal here because he's the next captain and will be expected to lead a group into a rebuild. The term was expected and the cap hit really isn't that bad given some of the recent contracts teams have handed out. If he falls off a cliff offensively in a few years so what we'll be in trash mode rebuild anyways and he'll be a great leader at around 6-8% of the total cap. Trading him away to jumpstart the rebuild leaves nothing behind to rebuild around. Non issue, move along, nothing to see here.

 

[usiel]

I approve of this resigning.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I’m an analytics guy but the teeth gnashing over this deal is pretty whack. The only way I wanted to see Tom traded was if the trade brought back a truly impactful player like a Nylander. Zero interest in trading Wilson for some future magic beans or prospects.

If they’re going to use the final third of Wilson’s season last year to show performance decline they should also note that Tom scored at over a 30-goal pace over the same time period and did it shooting at his normal shooting percentage. I know it’s a small sample size but it showed that his leg hadn’t fallen off his body and his wheels are still there. Along with Strome he was the only forward worth watching down the stretch. Tom is a freak athlete and he’s much better skater than guys like Lucic or Simmonds were so I don’t see him falling off a cliff like they did.

The deal itself is a year or two longer than I’d prefer but it’s fine. In two years the Caps essentially have a reset on their forward cap hits with now only Ovi, Strome, and Wilson signed for the 2025-26 season. The cap will increase significantly over the same period as well. (Side note: Milano is also signed but that’ll be the last year of a deal paying him $1.9M which is nothing). By that point you’d hope guys like Leonard, Cristall, Miro, and Suzdalev are filling top nine forward roles on cheap deals to supplement veteran contracts.

Will he be an overpaid 4th liner by the team the deal concludes? Almost certainly but I’ll take a few years of him being overpaid as opposed to losing him now.

 

[Pantokrator]

Flyers fan here who loves Tom Wilson. I am glad y'all resigned him becase I was worried a team like the Rangers or Toronto would get him!

I don't think the contract is a problem due to the rise in salary cap next year.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

salary cap people does the last 2 years at 900k +4.5 bonus make Wilson easier to trade or buyout?

 

[twabby]

salary cap people does the last 2 years at 900k +4.5 bonus make Wilson easier to trade or buyout?

No it’s the opposite. It’s pretty much a buyout-proof contract.

 

[Melkor]

That's not a good contract at all. Don't care who's going to be the captain in the years of total irrelevance that this team is on the doorstep of. If his market price is this or higher than this you trade the guy and move on. He's and has been a good complimentary player on the top-6, that's it.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Yay! One of my favorite all time Caps!

 

[g00n]

No it’s the opposite. It’s pretty much a buyout-proof contract.

This just addresses buy-out. Gmbm is not a buy-out guy so it's irrelevant.

What about trade?

I’m an analytics guy but the teeth gnashing over this deal is pretty whack. The only way I wanted to see Tom traded was if the trade brought back a truly impactful player like a Nylander. Zero interest in trading Wilson for some future magic beans or prospects.

If they’re going to use the final third of Wilson’s season last year to show performance decline they should also note that Tom scored at over a 30-goal pace over the same time period and did it shooting at his normal shooting percentage. I know it’s a small sample size but it showed that his leg hadn’t fallen off his body and his wheels are still there. Along with Strome he was the only forward worth watching down the stretch. Tom is a freak athlete and he’s much better skater than guys like Lucic or Simmonds were so I don’t see him falling off a cliff like they did.

The deal itself is a year or two longer than I’d prefer but it’s fine. In two years the Caps essentially have a reset on their forward cap hits with now only Ovi, Strome, and Wilson signed for the 2025-26 season. The cap will increase significantly over the same period as well. (Side note: Milano is also signed but that’ll be the last year of a deal paying him $1.9M which is nothing). By that point you’d hope guys like Leonard, Cristall, Miro, and Suzdalev are filling top nine forward roles on cheap deals to supplement veteran contracts.

Will he be an overpaid 4th liner by the team the deal concludes? Almost certainly but I’ll take a few years of him being overpaid as opposed to losing him now.

All of this. The only spreadsheet that matters right now is the one the Caps FO are using to project RFA signings plus current contracts vs expected salary cap.

 

[RandyHolt]

I love the signing of course. Anyone we traded him for would likely cower in the corners or become a lazy fat cat. There is too much of that happening in the league to deny the high probability. Nylander 2.0 in Hershey? No thanks. If we let him go for picks my head would have exploded Scott Stevens 2.0.

Every team still wants a Willy and I pit the fool that scoffs at our next captain now secured. I bought the kid a Willy jersey late last season and feared I had jinxed it.

Never forget he single-handed dismantled the entire Rangers organization. You can't put a price on that power, and on his protecting Ovi and the kids while dismantling other teams.

Our beloved Hock serves as entertainment for every single person reading this. If you can't hear the fans roar or gasp in horror after his antics maybe some are in denial over why most watch. Willy takes names while filling seats. He helps fill the void in our expected 4 decade wait for another cup.

 

[msrulo]

Kinda seems like the Brooks Laich contract

 

[Capitals40]

Contract is 2 years too long. Honestly, I was expecting 7 x 7.5 or similar, because it is BMac. He is the champion of generous contracts. So, in that sense, it is not too bad.

 

[usiel]

I love the signing of course. Anyone we traded him for would likely cower in the corners or become a lazy fat cat. There is too much of that happening in the league to deny the highly probability. Nylander 2.0 in Hershey? No thanks. If we let him go for picks my head would have exploded Scott Stevens 2.0.

Every team still wants a Willy and I pit the fool that scoffs at our next captain now secured. I bought the kid a Willy jersey late last season and feared I had jinxed it.

Never forget he single-handed dismantled the entire Rangers organization. You can't put a price on that power, and on his protecting Ovi and the kids while dismantling other teams.

Our beloved Hock serves as entertainment for every single person reading this. If you can't hear the fans roar or gasp in horror after his antics maybe some are in denial over why most watch. Willy takes names while filling seats. He helps fill the void in our expected 4 decade wait for another cup.

I also approve of this Wilson hype video.

It is decided I believe I will buy an official Tom Wilson jersey which will be my second one ever after my 93/43 Bondra one.

 

[koalabear9301]

Never forget he single-handed dismantled the entire Rangers organization. You can't put a price on that power, and on his protecting Ovi and the kids while dismantling other teams.

He dismantled a team that made it to the ECF the next season?

 

[Brian23]

But also: 1.) the cap going up quite a bit next year and 2.) the relatively minimal raise Wilson will get. Whereas Orlov was going to warrant a bigger raise under a slight cap increase. They could have found ways. They could have dumped Mantha and gone with Iorio over TVR. With more term Orlov likely would have settled in around $6.5M I think. But alas.

I think it's fair to ask whether Orlov is the more essential player, in part because they don't look to have much in the way of staunch defensive replacements. Team defense is so crucial in propping up inconsistent or declining offense. Sandin should be at least a decent top 4 guy but so much is pinned on Fehervary. I'm not one to believe he's done improving altogether but I doubt it's a solid enough D core overall to compensate for any continued forward decline. They're going to need at least 92/43 playing at a high level to have a shot competitively.

This is more for the Roster thread, but in general I don't think you should pay someone big money because you don't have a replacement. It's how you end up in both cap hell and boat anchor contracts.

Orlov is good, but I don't think he's ever once elevated anyone around him. We saw all year that, without Carlson, the defense fell apart even with a healthy Orlov. It just wasn't worth the money he'd have commanded for us. I think his short stint on Boston, where he started on a heater, really warped the perception of what Orlov is as a player.

Now, for a 2 year deal it was probably worth it in some fashion. But that wasn't what was being talked about here, he wanted long term and money here which is why they let him walk. I think he just found his market wasn't what he was expecting so he went high AAV for short term to try to attempt to cash in again in 2 years time.