The Official Tank Thread II

[Dotter]

It's funny that people are making it out that drafting top 3 is nearly as hard as making it to final 4 of the playoffs.

I guess tanking is harder than we thought

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Idk why you are so giddy about that. Drafting 7-11th is a death sentence for a pro team.

 

[Ezekial]

#7 could turn out to be the best player in this draft.

Idk why you are so giddy about that. Drafting 7-11th is a death sentence for a pro team.

If we were picking fourth you'd talk about how little of a chance we have in this weak draft to get a difference maker and then say Holland sucks and should kill himself.

 

[Frk It]

Yeah, but #7 is not going to cut it if we want to rebuild with elite players and win Cups. Besides, saying this won't happen again next year is a stretch for me. I think Holland intends to make the playoffs, which could include overhauling that defense. This might have been our only real window to draft top 3, and we blew it for meaningless points in a meaningless part of the season.

The other part of the charm is that without Zetterberg, Holland can't even dream of making the playoffs. It'd be glorious. We'd have to actually rebuild! I can't even imagine it at this point.

Holland is not even 1 year removed from a 25 year playoff streak. So no matter what, he's going to think he can get back to being a playoff team with a little work in the off-season. He just witnessed a team do it 25 times in a row, even through some lean years. So I really don't even think it would matter if Zetterberg retired tomorrow, his mindset would be the same.

If this season didn't make it blatantly obvious, none will. Holland is against re-building, he says it publicly all the time. Holland will probably continue to fight it until we replace him, hopefully sooner than later.

#7 could turn out to be the best player in this draft.

Well, any pick could. Usually not the case. But this year moreso than others, I do think this is a possibility.

I could see us getting someone 7th-10th that is better than who is taken #1 or #2. Would not have said that with the last 2 drafts.

 

[jkutswings]

#7 could turn out to be the best player in this draft.




If we were picking fourth you'd talk about how little of a chance we have in this weak draft to get a difference maker and then say Holland sucks and should kill himself.

All hyperbole aside, it's still frustrating to watch a bad season, believe the team needs to rebuild, hope for a really high pick to salvage some tangible return out of this lousy year...and then see several inconsequential wins in March, to greatly reduce the chances of landing said really high pick.

As impressive as Hank has been this year (and I hope he does reach 70 points), I also agree that him hanging up the skates is probably needed for an honest rebuild.

Or for age/injury to force that decision upon him. But I don't ever want somebody to get hurt.

 

[Pavels Dog]

If only AA, Mantha, Mrazek, Larkin, Nyquist, Jensen and Tatar weren't playing so well maybe we'd have a chance at drafting an arguably and hypotethically slightly more promising 18 year old in a draft where everyone outside the top 2 or 3 is a crapshoot.

Let's not act like it's all Z. I've said it years ago, this team is drafting and developing too well to easily get into the bottom 5. Only reason they're this close is because of grossly incompetent coaching, underperforming players for much of the 1st half and injuries (mostly Howard).

 

[Frk It]

Let's not act like it's all Z. I've said it years ago, this team is drafting and developing too well to easily get into the bottom 5. Only reason they're this close is because of grossly incompetent coaching, underperforming players for much of the 1st half and injuries (mostly Howard).

Too good to draft bottom 5, not good enough to do anything else. Woot woot.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

#7 could turn out to be the best player in this draft.




If we were picking fourth you'd talk about how little of a chance we have in this weak draft to get a difference maker and then say Holland sucks and should kill himself.

I would prefer a top three pick, but I would be happy with 4th overall too.

7-11 doesn't do anything to address the Wings lack of high end talent at every position.

Can anyone find a roster with less talent than Detroit?

Zetterberg is the only thing preventing the Wings
from turning into an even worse version of Colorado.

 

[njx9]

If only AA, Mantha, Mrazek, Larkin, Nyquist, Jensen and Tatar weren't playing so well maybe we'd have a chance at drafting an arguably and hypotethically slightly more promising 18 year old in a draft where everyone outside the top 2 or 3 is a crapshoot.

It's really too bad the coach and GM insisted on two of those players languishing in GR, on the bench or in the press box for a large part of the season, when 5 more wins would've made #26 a possibility.

I'm also a bit stumped by the idea of Mrazek playing well as a determining factor. He's mostly had a poor month, and his best two games netted the team a single point.

 

[AD1066]

I would prefer a top three pick, but I would be happy with 4th overall too.

7-11 doesn't do anything to address the Wings lack of high end talent at every position.

Can anyone find a roster with less talent than Detroit?

Zetterberg is the only thing preventing the Wings
from turning into an even worse version of Colorado.

I'm on board with the tank, but I'm hoping our saving grace is the lack of high-end talent at the top of this year's draft. It's a little better knowing there isn't a McDavid, Matthews, or Eichel who's going to radically alter the trajectory of a franchise.

7th OA wouldn't be the end of the world, considering we will likely be a bad team next year as well. Forwards tend to skew towards the top and there's usually a top-3 defenseman available for a team with good scouting. Werenski, Provorov, and Sergachev for example were all 7-9 picks in the last two years. Ristolainen I think a few years before.

 

[SirloinUB]

I'm on board with the tank, but I'm hoping our saving grace is the lack of high-end talent at the top of this year's draft. It's a little better knowing there isn't a McDavid, Matthews, or Eichel who's going to radically alter the trajectory of a franchise.

7th OA wouldn't be the end of the world, considering we will likely be a bad team next year as well. Forwards tend to skew towards the top and there's usually a top-3 defenseman available for a team with good scouting. Werenski, Provorov, and Sergachev for example were all 7-9 picks in the last two years. Ristolainen I think a few years before.

Trouba, Dumba, Brodin, Hamilton and Nurse were drafted 7-9 as well. Fowler and Ellis were 10th and 11th respectively. Some quality forwards have been taken in this range as well. Forsberg, Schiefele, Ehlers, Nylander come to mind in particular.

That's 13 quality guys taken in picks 7-10 over the last 4 drafts (16 total picks).

 

[Pavels Dog]

Too good to draft bottom 5, not good enough to do anything else. Woot woot.

Just like 70% of the league. We're still going to get our highest draft pick in ages. It's impossible to only draft 30th or top 3 as this board wants. If our young players suck and don't improve, we'll get a higher pick next season and the year after that. We should at least be able to avoid what looked most likely the last few years; missing the playoffs by 1-2 points and getting the worst draft pick possible while still missing the playoffs.

 

[jkutswings]

Holland is not even 1 year removed from a 25 year playoff streak. So no matter what, he's going to think he can get back to being a playoff team with a little work in the off-season. He just witnessed a team do it 25 times in a row, even through some lean years. So I really don't even think it would matter if Zetterberg retired tomorrow, his mindset would be the same.

If this season didn't make it blatantly obvious, none will. Holland is against re-building, he says it publicly all the time. Holland will probably continue to fight it until we replace him, hopefully sooner than later.



Well, any pick could. Usually not the case. But this year moreso than others, I do think this is a possibility.

I could see us getting someone 7th-10th that is better than who is taken #1 or #2. Would not have said that with the last 2 drafts.

There weren't any lean years until recently. And since Nashville in 2012, it's been a steady decline in talent ceiling, and an overall decline in results.

I agree that he's set in his ways. But the erosion of the​ roster was to be reasonably expected, given what was in the pipeline and who they were drafting. Holland thinking that he'd beat the odds for a third core without first paying the piper (for more than just one down year) was unrealistic at best.

 

[FlashyG]

I would prefer a top three pick, but I would be happy with 4th overall too.

7-11 doesn't do anything to address the Wings lack of high end talent at every position.

Can anyone find a roster with less talent than Detroit?

Zetterberg is the only thing preventing the Wings
from turning into an even worse version of Colorado.

I agree with you to an extent. Picking 7-11 probably doesn't get us the player we need to truly contend again, especially not this year.

Then again, picking 1-4 this year probably doesn't get us that player either. This draft seems to really lack that star prospect or 2 that get fan bases excited.

As much as people around here would hate it, I'd probably trade my first round pick to move down and pick up some extra kicks at the can.

The odds of finding an elite player are probably better with 4 or 5 second round picks than they are with one pick between 7-11.

Even better would be picking up some extra picks for next years draft where the pickings seem far riper.

 

[Retire91]

If we draft 7-11 this was a wasted season. Liljegren isn't going to fall that far. A team basically riding the back of someone who is going to retire in a few years and a goalie that is in his rare state of not injured and playing well. Without those two... Can't wait to see the Holland stop gaps this season.

 

[Flowah]

If only AA, Mantha, Mrazek, Larkin, Nyquist, Jensen and Tatar weren't playing so well maybe we'd have a chance at drafting an arguably and hypotethically slightly more promising 18 year old in a draft where everyone outside the top 2 or 3 is a crapshoot.

Let's not act like it's all Z. I've said it years ago, this team is drafting and developing too well to easily get into the bottom 5. Only reason they're this close is because of grossly incompetent coaching, underperforming players for much of the 1st half and injuries (mostly Howard).

You're right we draft really well. I think without Z though we're a clear bottom 3 team, maybe worst team. Z isn't doing it alone but he is clearly the team leader on the ice and the scoresheet.

As much as people around here would hate it, I'd probably trade my first round pick to move down and pick up some extra kicks at the can.

I'm at least like, 2nd in command on the tank crew and I'd be fine with that. First off, the Wings have a damn good track record finding guys later in the draft. Nothing elite, but legitimate NHL talent. Even top6 talent like Nyquist or Tatar. That isn't easy to do. Frankly they're good finds for the bottom 15 picks of the first round in a lot of years.

So if we're really picking like 8, 9, 10, and there's no one that projects to have a reasonable chance at top line/pairing talent, I'm fine trading down. Get more picks,

 

[Shaman464]

I agree with you to an extent. Picking 7-11 probably doesn't get us the player we need to truly contend again, especially not this year.

Then again, picking 1-4 this year probably doesn't get us that player either. This draft seems to really lack that star prospect or 2 that get fan bases excited.

As much as people around here would hate it, I'd probably trade my first round pick to move down and pick up some extra kicks at the can.

The odds of finding an elite player are probably better with 4 or 5 second round picks than they are with one pick between 7-11.

Even better would be picking up some extra picks for next years draft where the pickings seem far riper.

Or they can draft some more Smiths and Bertuzzis.

Seriously though, I'd be willing to trade down or away for another first next year. Unless Detroit hits the literal lottery, they're looking at a mediocre pick.

 

[SirloinUB]

Ya'll are getting way to dramatic about drafting top 3.

Lets look at the 2012 draft as its usually the first one identified when discussing a "weak Draft." Impact players picked outside of the top 3 include:
Rielly, Lindholm, Dumba, Trouba, Forsberg, Ceci, Hertl, Vasilevskiy, Maatta, Matheson, Skjei and Pearson.

Other useful players taken in the first round include: Teravainen, Pouliot, Koekkoek, Grigorenko, Faksa, Girgensons, Wilson, and Laughton.


Looking specifically at slots 7-9 in Drafts 12-15 we can see a success rate greater than 75% on drafting an impact player. This conversions rate includes guys like Pouliot, Fleury, and Meier as "misses" but in reality they look very promising as well. If we include the 2010-2011 drafts this success rate rises to nearly 80% with Burmistrov being the only additional miss.

The 2007-2009 drafts yield a conversion rate of 66% on picks 7-9 with Hamill and Glennie being the only major misses.

From 2007-2016 the only "misses" are Glennie, Hamill, Burmistrov, Fleury, Pouliot, Cowen and Meier. That's an all in conversion rate of 74% on these picks. (Full disclosure Kadri, Wilson and Boedker, Granlund, Skinner, Horvat and Couturier were counted as hits)

It is highly probable that they can draft an impact player late in the top 10. In fact, it is significantly more likely that the wings draft an impact player in spots 7-9 than not.

 

[jkutswings]

Which helps, but you still need 1-2 top tier guys to anchor any real championship contention.

There's no law in which order you get the pieces, as long as they all come together at the right time, but what we currently believe to be the front office intentions for next season will have to be significantly thwarted to have a good shot at getting one of those All-Star caliber guys.

 

[SirloinUB]

Which helps, but you still need 1-2 top tier guys to anchor any real championship contention.

There's no law in which order you get the pieces, as long as they all come together at the right time, but what we currently believe to be the front office intentions for next season will have to be significantly thwarted to have a good shot at getting one of those All-Star caliber guys.

I don't disagree but many are acting like its difficult/impossible to get an good/impact player late in the top 10 when in reality, its PROBABLE that you get a good/impact player in these slots.

 

[Flowah]

I don't disagree but many are acting like its difficult/impossible to get an good/impact player late in the top 10 when in reality, its PROBABLE that you get a good/impact player in these slots.

If all we get is an "impact" player it's not very helpful in my eyes.

We have "impact" guys and guys who can develop into them. Tatar and Nyquist are ~40+ point guys each. That's pretty impact. Mantha and Athanasiou look fantastic. They are likely impact guys. Maybe even Jensen turns into one. He looks real good.

We need the elite talent. More impact players aren't going to do much for us.

 

[SirloinUB]

If all we get is an "impact" player it's not very helpful in my eyes.

We have "impact" guys and guys who can develop into them. Tatar and Nyquist are ~40+ point guys each. That's pretty impact. Mantha and Athanasiou look fantastic. They are likely impact guys. Maybe even Jensen turns into one. He looks real good.

We need the elite talent. More impact players aren't going to do much for us.

Rome wasn't built in a day, or just one draft, my friend.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

#7 could turn out to be the best player in this draft.

You're really, really glossing over the fact that #7 is much less likely to be the best player than #1 or #2. In fact, this is the same tired argument people trotted out to explain why drafting 15th is functionally the same as drafting in the top 5.

But it's just not. It's really not.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

If only AA, Mantha, Mrazek, Larkin, Nyquist, Jensen and Tatar weren't playing so well maybe we'd have a chance at drafting an arguably and hypotethically slightly more promising 18 year old in a draft where everyone outside the top 2 or 3 is a crapshoot.

Let's not act like it's all Z. I've said it years ago, this team is drafting and developing too well to easily get into the bottom 5. Only reason they're this close is because of grossly incompetent coaching, underperforming players for much of the 1st half and injuries (mostly Howard).

I'd trade all of those guys for players taken higher in their drafts. It's funny how at one point we were pointing to Larkin and saying, "see! you can get a great player at 15th! You don't need to draft in the top 10 to get a key player" But I'd rather have Jack Eichel right now, and it's not even close. Not even a little bit.

This team has major holes, and they stand almost no chance of filling them if they keep drafting outside of the top 10. We need Eichels, not Larkins. The point of NHL hockey is not to construct a pretty good team and make the playoffs. The point of NHL hockey is to construct an elite team and win the Cup. Nothing else matters.

 

[Ezekial]

You're really, really glossing over the fact that #7 is much less likely to be the best player than #1 or #2. In fact, this is the same tired argument people trotted out to explain why drafting 15th is functionally the same as drafting in the top 5.

But it's just not. It's really not.

It was more specific to this draft class.

No one is making your false narrative "tired"