The Official Tank Thread II

[Unfriendly Ghost]

It was more specific to this draft class.

No one is making your false narrative "tired"

But even for this class, are you truly willing to bet that Rasmussen (ISS has him 7th) or somebody else is going to be better than Patrick, Hischier, AND somebody else like Vilardi or Tippett? That's a heck of a bet to want to make. I'd certainly take those odds.

My point is, Rasmussen could be the better player, but it is highly unlikely. These players are developed enough to have well-defined skillsets and have already created track records for themselves. It's really rare that a 3rd line C or something (which is where Rasmussen projects) breaks out and becomes a 1st line C. It's certainly too rare to try to build your franchise on the hope of it.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Their s absolutely NOTHING that Ken Holland can do this summer to make this team a contender next year.

No player will hit rhe market that would have been a difference maker to us is this year so why think next year they would be that player

For every Howard, nyquist and Larkin argument exists an even better one saying Tampa, Florida and Philly all expect to be better as well

We have no assets to trade for an impact player

No chance Holland trades what little we do have for the frans Nielsen of defence and we will likely not lose a big enough contract to expansion to free up enough money for free agency

Stop worrying

 

[Retire91]

The nay sayers have finally worn me down absolutely no need to draft high. A cup is coming just need a few more vets like Kevin bieksa that will fix it up.

 

[SirloinUB]

But even for this class, are you truly willing to bet that Rasmussen (ISS has him 7th) or somebody else is going to be better than Patrick, Hischier, AND somebody else like Vilardi or Tippett? That's a heck of a bet to want to make. I'd certainly take those odds.

My point is, Rasmussen could be the better player, but it is highly unlikely. These players are developed enough to have well-defined skillsets and have already created track records for themselves. It's really rare that a 3rd line C or something (which is where Rasmussen projects) breaks out and becomes a 1st line C. It's certainly too rare to try to build your franchise on the hope of it.

Is Kopitar better than Crosby or Price?

The answer is obvious but he doesn't need to be better than those guys to be a good draft pick or massive contributor on a contender. He is the type of player you can win multiple championships with as your 1C and he was taken 11th overall.

 

[Flowah]

Rome wasn't built in a day, or just one draft, my friend.

I mean I know that... I've been pretty vocal about needing to tank for at least 3 years.

But I'm saying another impact player doesn't really address any problems we have.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Is Kopitar better than Crosby or Price?

The answer is obvious but he doesn't need to be better than those guys to be a good draft pick or massive contributor on a contender. He is the type of player you can win multiple championships with as your 1C and he was taken 11th overall.

Absolutely

But bigger more important player was drafted 2nd overall

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Is Kopitar better than Crosby or Price?

The answer is obvious but he doesn't need to be better than those guys to be a good draft pick or massive contributor on a contender. He is the type of player you can win multiple championships with as your 1C and he was taken 11th overall.

The issue is that he was taken 11th overall in a draft year that included Crosby and Price (as well as Bobby Ryan, J Johnson, Luc Bourdon).

In a weak draft year Kopitar is probably picked in the top 5.

 

[Ezekial]

The issue is that he was taken 11th overall in a draft year that included Crosby and Price (as well as Bobby Ryan, J Johnson, Luc Bourdon).

In a weak draft year Kopitar is probably picked in the top 5.

Yea at that rate it's like Provvy/Werenski at 7/8 in 2015. Not comparable to this situation.

 

[SirloinUB]

The issue is that he was taken 11th overall in a draft year that included Crosby and Price (as well as Bobby Ryan, J Johnson, Luc Bourdon).

In a weak draft year Kopitar is probably picked in the top 5.

I don't want to get into semantics but Pouliot, Brule, SKille, Setoguchi, Lee and Bourdon were all drafted ahead of Kopitar. Id rather have kopitar than Ryan or Johsnon as well. Ill let you draw your own conclusions about the strength of that draft.

Either way Kopitar proves that game changing talent exists outside of the top 5/10. He also proves that you don't need to have the very best guy from a certain draft to become a contender. Kopitar had plenty of question marks, hence the reason he wasn't a top 10 pick.

Erik Karlsson is another one that quickly comes to mind.


Between these types of guys and the analysis I presented on draft slots 7-9 its clear that you can still have a successful rebuilding draft without a top 3 pick.

Bottom line is a few extra wins changing the Wings pick from 4th to 8th will still allow for a productive rebuild. It's not going to devastate or completely set back a rebuild.

 

[Retire91]

none of this addresses the fact that the probability of drafting an elite player decreases with each pick position. The fact that an all-star can come from the 5th round or that someone can sign an underfated player that has a HOF career does nothing to help the wings. The wings need guaranteed talent and they need a lot of it and they need it soon. The probability of that happening increases the better the pick you have.

 

[SirloinUB]

none of this addresses the fact that the probability of drafting an elite player decreases with each pick position

I never disagreed with this but the point is you don't need to get all butt hurt over drafting 8th instead of 4th. Its not something that is going to set back the franchise. If this team is so bad that a rebuild is necessary a top 8 pick is a great place to start. To each their own but we don't need to suck all the fun out of watching a hockey game to move up 2 or 3 spots.

The fact that an all-star can come from the 5th round or that someone can sign an underfated player that has a HOF career does nothing to help the wings. The wings need guaranteed talent and they need a lot of it and they need it soon.

Thanks for comparing 5th rounders and undrafted players to guys like kopitar and karlsson. Really hammers home the point that you love to speak in irrelevant hyperboles.


Look many are of the position that losing now will help the team long term. If the team is so bad that taking this kind of long term outlook is logical (and possibly even necessary) then the gap from 4th/5th to 7th/8th is pretty inconsequential.

 

[Bench]

This season has been such a disaster it's hard not to be a little discouraged they are currently playing themselves out of a top pick. The silver lining was locking in an elite prospect.

Hopefully they still get the player they want.

 

[SirloinUB]

This season has been such a disaster it's hard not to be a little discouraged they are currently playing themselves out of a top pick. The silver lining was locking in an elite prospect.

Hopefully they still get the player they want.

I get that. I really do. But all is not lost, a top 8 pick is still a silver lining and a boost to the team.

With no disrepest to any individuals this whole "top 3 pick or Stanley cup contender" attitude is bratty and completely unrealistic.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I'd trade all of those guys for players taken higher in their drafts. It's funny how at one point we were pointing to Larkin and saying, "see! you can get a great player at 15th! You don't need to draft in the top 10 to get a key player" But I'd rather have Jack Eichel right now, and it's not even close. Not even a little bit.

This team has major holes, and they stand almost no chance of filling them if they keep drafting outside of the top 10. We need Eichels, not Larkins. The point of NHL hockey is not to construct a pretty good team and make the playoffs. The point of NHL hockey is to construct an elite team and win the Cup. Nothing else matters.

Slightly unfair to compare Larkin to a guy that would be drafted #1OA in most years including this one. Larkin can still hold his own against most players drafted ahead of him in 14 and only time will tell how good he actually becomes. If we draft at #5-10 this year we should have a good chance at another good player. If we don't improve next year, same deal. A top 10 pick, in a stronger draft. We don't need a slam-dunk superstar like McDavid, we just need a combination of good drafting and that little bit of luck that lands you a Werenski or Erik Karlsson or Duncan Keith or so on.

 

[Flowah]

Slightly unfair to compare Larkin to a guy that would be drafted #1OA in most years including this one. Larkin can still hold his own against most players drafted ahead of him in 14 and only time will tell how good he actually becomes. If we draft at #5-10 this year we should have a good chance at another good player. If we don't improve next year, same deal. A top 10 pick, in a stronger draft. We don't need a slam-dunk superstar like McDavid, we just need a combination of good drafting and that little bit of luck that lands you a Werenski or Erik Karlsson or Duncan Keith or so on.

Larkin is only being compared to Eichel to illustrate the massive difference between 15 and 1.

It's not even close. Eichel comes in at 18 and right off the bat is a go to guy. Goes PPG.

Larkin starts hot, cools off, hasn't rebounded since. It's not his fault. He's just not as good.

By the way the "little bit of luck" amounts to about 5% chance. It's a hell of a lot of luck.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

We don't need a slam-dunk superstar like McDavid, we just need a combination of good drafting and that little bit of luck that lands you a Werenski or Erik Karlsson or Duncan Keith or so on.

TBH, I think Karlsson is just as big a superstar. Getting a Karlsson basically means you've won drafting.

 

[Frk It]

I get that. I really do. But all is not lost, a top 8 pick is still a silver lining and a boost to the team.

With no disrepest to any individuals this whole "top 3 pick or Stanley cup contender" attitude is bratty and completely unrealistic.

You shouldn't look at it that way.

It has nothing to do with whiny or bratty, and everything to do with probabilities.

A _ pick returns X on average, a _ pick returns Y on average. We have data that tells us that over a 10-20 year sample.

So it comes down to how confident are you that your team can beat the averages?

Honestly, we are great at beating the averages in later rounds, but when is the last time one of our 1st rounders beat the average expectation?

Sheahan is average for where he was taken. Same with Smith. Same with Kindl. McCollum didn't even make it. Larkin looked awesome, but regressed hard to the mean this year. Mantha is on pace to exceed his draft position, but it's very early still.

I don't really see a body of work that suggests we should believe we can exceed the average. If you don't think you can exceed the average, then you need to be drafting where the average return yields a high end player. That would be picks 1-3 or 1-4.

It's great that we have Kopitar as an example of a #11 pick that became an elite player. How likely is that to be repeated though? It's not likely.