The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[Machinehead]

"lol how can Kreider be elite if he never scored 30 goals lol"



Favorite scene

 

[silverfish]

One of the more interesting things that is happening on HF right now is that a lot of the players are being evaluated "as part of a bad team". Like, take Pionk for example. We don't want to analyze him exactly because he's playing for AV on a bad team but he's also skating 22 minutes a night and contributing to the badness.

Dude is getting absolutely shelled by the usage he's been given. He's a drag on his teammates. He's putting up points because he's on a sick PDO bender and skates a ton with KZF.

Maybe he'll have better underlying #s next year when he's on the third-pair where he should be, but that's also going to drive his QoT way down. He also won't be on the PP when Shattenkirk is healthy next year, so that's going to hurt his point totals.

I'm all for making 3RD his to lose next year, but I won't be surprised if he does exactly that.

 

[Ail]

One of the more interesting things that is happening on HF right now is that a lot of the players are being evaluated "as part of a bad team". Like, take Pionk for example. We don't want to analyze him exactly because he's playing for AV on a bad team but he's also skating 22 minutes a night and contributing to the badness.

Dude is getting absolutely shelled by the usage he's been given. He's a drag on his teammates. He's putting up points because he's on a sick PDO bender and skates a ton with KZF.

Maybe he'll have better underlying #s next year when he's on the third-pair where he should be, but that's also going to drive his QoT way down. He also won't be on the PP when Shattenkirk is healthy next year, so that's going to hurt his point totals.

I'm all for making 3RD his to lose next year, but I won't be surprised if he does exactly that.

Why don't you just call him NEAL STIONK and be done with it!

 

[silverfish]

Why don't you just call him NEAL STIONK and be done with it!

Honestly, perusing the Pionk thread and realizing that I agree with Mouth more than the rest of HF has kept me up nights.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Honestly, perusing the Pionk thread and realizing that I agree with Mouth more than the rest of HF has kept me up nights.

Thoughts and prayers.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

One of the more interesting things that is happening on HF right now is that a lot of the players are being evaluated "as part of a bad team". Like, take Pionk for example. We don't want to analyze him exactly because he's playing for AV on a bad team but he's also skating 22 minutes a night and contributing to the badness.

Dude is getting absolutely shelled by the usage he's been given. He's a drag on his teammates. He's putting up points because he's on a sick PDO bender and skates a ton with KZF.

Maybe he'll have better underlying #s next year when he's on the third-pair where he should be, but that's also going to drive his QoT way down. He also won't be on the PP when Shattenkirk is healthy next year, so that's going to hurt his point totals.

I'm all for making 3RD his to lose next year, but I won't be surprised if he does exactly that.

1) The Rangers always have high PDO in AV's system with whatever goaltender Allaire gets his hands on.

2) Why are you including save percentage, which is part of PDO in a conversation about points?

3) I don't think anyone expects him to be a PPG player, so of couse his current pace is unsustainable.

4) Of course he's contributing to the badness, he's not ready to play the role he's playing. You have to look at his performance in that context.

 

[silverfish]

Thoughts and prayers.

His underlying numbers are so bad though. He's like Girardi but instead of not being able to suppress anything can't drive anything. Look at his relTCF60 and relTxGF60 numbers. Atrocious. His suppression numbers aren't even that bad, but coupled with his driving numbers, he becomes the worst NYR D in terms of relCF%, relTCF%, relxGF%, and relTxGF%.

This massive PDO bender is just hiding the deficincies. Dude got absolutely murdered by the SABRES last night. -14 CF differential, on for 26 CA 5v5. Comes out of the game with 2 points.

Hockey is dumb, we know this, but we also know signs of false positive play. I think this is one of them.

1) The Rangers always have high PDO in AV's system with whatever goaltender Allaire gets his hands on.

2) Why are you including save percentage, which is part of PDO in a conversation about points?

3) I don't think anyone expects him to be a PPG player, so of couse his current pace is unsustainable.

4) Of course he's contributing to the badness, he's not ready to play the role he's playing. You have to look at his performance in that context.

PDO also includes Sh%...

I don't care about context as much as everyone else. Yeah, he's probably closer to a 3D than the 1D he's playing right now, but he's getting murdered. His numbers are atrocious. Even for a guy playing over his head.

And I guess I'll repeat that I definitely agree that his underlying numbers will likely improve when he's slotted at 3RD, where he should be, but we need to remember how much of a hit his QoT is going to take when that happens, and how that will impact him a lot more than the relief he'll get from QoC.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

You compared him to Girardi. First of all you're comparing a young kid just starting his career to a guy ending his. Second Girardi's game improved when he was taken out of this system and put in a more appropriate role as I suspect will happen here. And regarding PDO including shooting percentage then use shooting percentage. Using PDO holds Georgiev's play against him when it comes to points.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Our next coach:



@silverfish I know his numbers are terrible, but he’s also being ridiculously overused for a kid in his position, so I take that with a grain of salt. I’m more focusing on what he’s doing on the ice individually and using that to evaluate how he’ll project next season. He makes good outlet passes, skates well, and doesn’t give up his entire body to take away shooting lanes and has good gap control. I’d bet that if we had his exit and entry numbers, they’d paint a different picture. I think he’s setting himself up to be a 3RD.

I don’t think I can stress enough how much I can’t wait until these kids have a new coach.

 

[silverfish]

You compared him to Girardi. First of all you're comparing a young kid just starting his career to a guy ending his. Second Girardi's game improved when he was taken out of this system and put in a more appropriate role as I suspect will happen here. And regarding PDO including shooting percentage then use shooting percentage. Using PDO holds Georgiev's play against him when it comes to points.

I compared his numbers to Girardi, very different. I'm using PDO as a proxy for 'luck', nothing more. Look at his relCF% and relxGF% and then compare it to his relGF%. We know that one of these metrics tends to regress towards the others.

Our next coach:



@silverfish I know his numbers are terrible, but he’s also being ridiculously overused for a kid in his position, so I take that with a grain of salt. I’m more focusing on what he’s doing on the ice individually and using that to evaluate how he’ll project next season. He makes good outlet passes, skates well, and doesn’t give up his entire body to take away shooting lanes and has good gap control. I’d bet that if we had his exit and entry numbers, they’d paint a different picture. I think he’s setting himself up to be a 3RD.

I don’t think I can stress enough how much I can’t wait until these kids have a new coach.

Right, but overused or not, he's getting murdered. How much will moving from his current usage to third-pairing usage fix this? How much will a new coach fix that his relative to teammates numbers are awful? I'm not holding my breath. It very much so feels like we're looking for things that we want to see rather than what is there. We want Pionk to succeed, me too, believe it or not, so we look for... not excuses, but reasons. His numbers are bad because _____. Maybe his numbers are bad because he's just not that good?

OT ---

 

[Mac n Gs]

@silverfish I mean we can’t just ignore that he’s a rookie either, right? I know I’m being biased a bit, but I’m also being weary about using a SSS of his first stint of NHL play on an awful team. That’s why I’m focusing on what he’s doing and how that can project into next year.

It’s a terrible argument by me from a statistical standpoint, but it’s the same way I saw Brett Pesce when he first jumped into the league. I saw his numbers were terrible, but I never watched him and could pin it on him being a bad player. I saw him making proper reads and plays and learning from when he made mistakes. I see Pionk following that same learning curve (not saying he’ll be Pesce, but I’m comparing the developmental process). It’s also tough for me to use his corsi against as a negative against him when the majority of the shot attempts are coming from the other side of the ice

 

[silverfish]

@silverfish I mean we can’t just ignore that he’s a rookie either, right? I know I’m being biased a bit, but I’m also being weary about using a SSS of his first stint of NHL play on an awful team. That’s why I’m focusing on what he’s doing and how that can project into next year.

It’s a terrible argument by me from a statistical standpoint, but it’s the same way I saw Brett Pesce when he first jumped into the league. I saw his numbers were terrible, but I never watched him and could pin it on him being a bad player. I saw him making proper reads and plays and learning from when he made mistakes. I see Pionk following that same learning curve (not saying he’ll be Pesce, but I’m comparing the developmental process). It’s also tough for me to use his corsi against as a negative against him when the majority of the shot attempts are coming from the other side of the ice

No, I think it's totally reasonable. It's happened a few times where young D that get written off bounce back when they figure it out. This can absolutely happen to Pionk.

 

[Mac n Gs]

No, I think it's totally reasonable. It's happened a few times where young D that get written off bounce back when they figure it out. This can absolutely happen to Pionk.

Also, congrats on the scraper. When you’re running a teams analytic department, can you hire me as an intern

 

[silverfish]

Also, congrats on the scraper. When you’re running a teams analytic department, can you hire me as an intern

Ha! I've sent some email feelers out, but never get responses. That's okay. Either way, my plan for getting hired remains exactly the same:

1) Get hired
2) Hire Manny/Micah to be my boss
3) Hire other smart people
4) Fire myself

 

[Mac n Gs]

Ha! I've sent some email feelers out, but never get responses. That's okay. Either way, my plan for getting hired remains exactly the same:

1) Get hired
2) Hire Manny/Micah to be my boss
3) Hire other smart people
4) Fire myself

I wish I could see the proprietary stuff Micah owns. His work is probably my favorite along with Sportlogiq

 

[silverfish]

I wish I could see the proprietary stuff Micah owns. His work is probably my favorite along with Sportlogiq

Does he have an xG model? I feel like he doesn't? I wonder why....

 

[NoQuitInNewMexico]

How many teams over the years have been basement-level at even strength and good on both the PK and the PP? It at least feels like a unique situation.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

How many teams over the years have been basement-level at even strength and good on both the PK and the PP? It at least feels like a unique situation.

I feel like I remember the worst team in the league Flyers in 2006-2007 being like that but I may be wrong.

Edit: Nope I'm wrong, I must be confusing that team with either another Flyers team or another team.

 

[Machinehead]

Speaking of Micah,

That's an interesting spread.

Like I've always said, I'm fully prepared to jump on the "Pionk sucks" train but I'm going to give him a trial period away from Cyclops.

Lest we forget how excited we got when McIlrath was playing with Yandle.

 

[Machinehead]

I feel like I remember the worst team in the league Flyers in 2006-2007 being like that but I may be wrong.

Edit: Nope I'm wrong, I must be confusing that team with either another Flyers team or another team.

They were right before that.

Took JVR second overall in 2006.

 

[Irishguy42]

Speaking of Micah,

That's an interesting spread.

Like I've always said, I'm fully prepared to jump on the "Pionk sucks" train but I'm going to give him a trial period away from Cyclops.

Lest we forget how excited we got when McIlrath was playing with Yandle.

This just tells me that Pionk has generally been fine as a RD for the Rangers. It's the left side that needs help. Which is fine. It's a small sample size and he's a rookie and the team generally sucks.

IIRC, and I don't have it in front of me, but Pionk has spent his time on the ice pretty much split between Staal and Skjei. Is there a way we can get thus chart, but separated between Skjei/Pionk and Staal/Pionk?

 

[Ghost of jas]

They were right before that.

Took JVR second overall in 2006.

2007, same draft as Kane and Cherepanov.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

They were right before that.

Took JVR second overall in 2006.

2007. 2005-2006 they actually had a good team that I believe finished above us in the standings.

 

[Machinehead]

Read that wrong, my bad.

Before every playoffs I end up in yet another argument over the validity of team analytics. Like, really?

I understand the contextual wiggle room of individual numbers, but I see the concept of team corsi as pretty cut and dry. If you get outshot every night, you don't win the Cup.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Speaking of Micah,

That's an interesting spread.

Like I've always said, I'm fully prepared to jump on the "Pionk sucks" train but I'm going to give him a trial period away from Cyclops.

Lest we forget how excited we got when McIlrath was playing with Yandle.

My reasoning as well. This chart is enough for me to give Pionk the benefit of the doubt for now.