After today's games, Avs are sitting with pick 7th, with games in hand to bump that all the way to 12th, and nobody with games in hand on them (except BOS, but they are ahead anyways). That is a fair representation of where they will finish IMO.
Yes, they are a key injury away from falling off a cliff. But so are other teams. Calgary dies without Gaudreau, LA with Doughty and/or Quick, Chicago has a few guys that could cost they a spot (I still feel they will end up in), Anaheim is due to get healthy at some point and they will move up, VGK will hit a wall at some point I have to think...or are they going to pull a 13-14 Avs?
The only teams I could see passing the Avs are EDM if McJesus and the Apostles start lighting it up, and Ottawa if EK65 and Dutchy find their way out of the doldrums. But I could also see the Avs passing VAN, CGY, ANA (if they never get healthy), PHI, CAR, and MTL.
That all said, I think they end up with a pick in the 6-10 range, and should take...Wahlstrom as the most likely to be there that fits what I am looking for this time. I want a shooter up front. We have plenty of play-makers, and I think we need to add a finisher. None of the D after Dahlin interest me for a earlier than 15 at this time.