Post-Game Talk: Stars 4 - Jets 1

[NA Hockey]

He is scoring more than Perfetti did in the AHL and is much faster.
Cole has decent IQ, no speed, limited shot


Harley looks legit

Totally not true. Lambert has 31 points in 43 games this year and 34 in 57 career games.

Perfetti had 15 points in 17 games in his last season and had 41 pints in 49 total games.

Perfetti has more total points in less games and a way better ppg in each season and overall.

If Perfetti has “decent” IQ Lambert’s would be judged as negative IQ.

As for shot, Cole’s is more accurate and harder and he is a significantly better play maker. The only place Lambert has him at is speed. But speed to nowhere, gets you nowhere.

 

[KingBogo]

Sounds like we are going to have 4 players as GTD tomorrow.

Because of injuries or illness?

 

[Stumbledore]

Is this a joke?

I did not get Inanna's joke as well.

At the risk of speaking on behalf of the lady -- for which I got handed my balls last year -- I think she was showing her amused contempt for advanced stats, which I heartily share.

 

[Inanna]

At the risk of speaking on behalf of the lady -- for which I got handed my balls last year -- I think she was showing her amused contempt for advanced stats, which I heartily share.

Well of course I handed them to you. What on earth would I keep them for?

 

[bustamente]

Because of injuries or illness?

In Vilardi's case injury probably the same for Ehlers, Monahan and Appleton maybe sickness

 

[GNP]

It hasn't even been one season yet with Vilardi, yes he has been injured but it could also just be really bad luck.

I hope it's "bad luck"but I highly doubt that. Not only has these injuries happened already multiple times with the Jets, it was happening consistently with LA, and that's why they let him go. I think it's looking like he's one of those guys that doesn't have a strong physical constitution. I think we should expect this often from Villardi. Also on that trade we took an overpriced Iafallo at $ 4 mil per year, when he's only worth $ 2mil tops. If Villardi stays healthy it's fine. I would bet LA insisted on us taking Iafallo, or "no deal." I don't think Chevy wanted him, but wanted out from PLD more.

Really tho anything is better than keeping a malcontent player like PLD around, that just brings down team morale. The Kings are not doing well this year with him. When you look at LA's situation, taking on a $ 8.5 mil cap hit for the next 8 years, is a position I would not want to be in , if I were LA management.

SHAKY TRADE - on both sides really, and only the future will tell us if we did well. All depends on Villardi's health IMO.

I hope by some miracle, that Villardi can stay relatively injury free going forward, but I have my doubts.

 

[KingBogo]

At the risk of speaking on behalf of the lady -- for which I got handed my balls last year -- I think she was showing her amused contempt for advanced stats, which I heartily share.

Why do you have contempt for advanced stats? I'll admit there are some weaknesses, and some advanced stats have trouble accounting for certain variables, especially xGF% IMO, And teams all probably have better internal measuring metrics. Saying that it gives additional understanding beyond the eye test which tends to be quite biased.

 

[robertocarlos]

What evidence is that?

He takes 40 second shifts. Chef takes 100 second shifts.

 

[bustamente]

Well my U18 team lost tonight too and we got eliminated from the playoffs. When it rains it pours. Just got home so I can hit delete on the PVR.

Well that sucks but ask yourself these questions, did they have fun during their season, did they learn from their mistakes on the ice and did you enjoy being a part of their season. I think the answer to all those questions is yes and that's the most important part.

 

[Buffdog]

Why do you have contempt for advanced stats? I'll admit there are some weaknesses, and some advanced stats have trouble accounting for certain variables, especially xGF% IMO, And teams all probably have better internal measuring metrics. Saying that it gives additional understanding beyond the eye test which tends to be quite biased.

I won't speak for Stumby because of all the ball handling that apparently goes along with that...

But for me it's not the stats themselves, but posters who will use them to back up some kind of preconceived notion they have about a player in the most blatant examples of confirmation bias you could imagine

Yes, they're useful objective observations that can go towards making a conclusion but too many people make them the end-all-be-all of player evaluation (and usually there's an air of arrogance that goes along with it... "well, I'm smart because I have a stat and I use a model and you're just a dinosaur who uses your eyeballs")

 

[MardyBum]

Dallas has done some good drafting since blowing the Gurianov pick in 2015. Hintz, Heiskanen, Robertson, Harley, Johnston, Stankoven, Oettinger. Mavrik Bourque looks pretty good too.

Imagine putting young draft picks in spots to succeed. 2 more years before Lambert is ready and Perfetti needs to be sent to the AHL

 

[KingBogo]

He takes 40 second shifts. Chef takes 100 second shifts.

According to Natural Stats Trick 5on5 shift lengths for the 2023 - 2024 season to date Niki's average shift length is 0:45 and Scheifele's is 0:51.

 

[KingBogo]

I won't speak for Stumby because of all the ball handling that apparently goes along with that...

But for me it's not the stats themselves, but posters who will use them to back up some kind of preconceived notion they have about a player in the most blatant examples of confirmation bias you could imagine

Yes, they're useful objective observations that can go towards making a conclusion but too many people make them the end-all-be-all of player evaluation (and usually there's an air of arrogance that goes along with it... "well, I'm smart because I have a stat and I use a model and you're just a dinosaur who uses your eyeballs")

For me it is taking into account what they can shed light on and where they aren't very effective. While I have pulled them out more than a few times in a discussion to try and prove a point, I don't always acknowledge in that discussion where the hole is. So I agree they are thrown around like the be end all of the discussion, when often there is a mile wide counter argument that can be made. For me the biggest example is xGF% which doesn't take into account shooter skill level. For example, give Kyle Connor 100 high danger shots from various positions in the offensive zone compared to lets say Kupari with the same 100 high danger shots and Connor likely scores 20-30 more goals, yet they would have the same xGF%. Coaches say hey I need those extra 20-30 goals, so xGF% only carries so much weight.

 

[Snowboy]

Totally not true. Lambert has 31 points in 43 games this year and 34 in 57 career games.

Perfetti had 15 points in 17 games in his last season and had 41 pints in 49 total games.

Perfetti has more total points in less games and a way better ppg in each season and overall.

If Perfetti has “decent” IQ Lambert’s would be judged as negative IQ.

As for shot, Cole’s is more accurate and harder and he is a significantly better play maker. The only place Lambert has him at is speed. But speed to nowhere, gets you nowhere.

When your a little skilled guy like Perfetti, speed is VERY important to compensate for the lack of physicality or some other flaws. I am a bit worried about it. He may not be the player we hoped he would be. He knows what to do, but often lacks the speed to get there and get it done.
If he does not make it to top six, speed will be the culprit that does him in. He is hanging on a thread right now. He will get top six with injuries now and undergo the acid test, and I am hoping for him as he has shown some progress with speed on occasion.

 

[Atoyot]

He takes 40 second shifts. Chef takes 100 second shifts.

And Chef taking long shifts often results in him not being able to backcheck and getting hemmed in. Taking 100 second shifts shouldn't be spun to Scheifele's credit.

 

[KingBogo]

When your a little skilled guy like Perfetti, speed is VERY important to compensate for the lack of physicality or some other flaws. I am a bit worried about it. He may not be the player we hoped he would be. He knows what to do, but often lacks the speed to get there and get it done.
If he does not make it to top six, speed will be the culprit that does him in. He is hanging on a thread right now. He will get top six with injuries now and undergo the acid test, and I am hoping for him as he has shown some progress with speed on occasion.

This is a pretty good analysis. I have been holding back being too critical, but Perfetti's lack of speed is a limiting factor, and if you combine is lack of size and strength it does start to get concerning. I've been holding onto the hope that his elite play making and hockey IQ can make up for it. Personally, I really want to see him played with our top offensive talent to see if that can break through. If not he may fade down to some complimentary role.

And Chef taking long shifts often results in him not being able to backcheck and getting hemmed in. Taking 100 second shifts shouldn't be spun to Scheifele's credit.

I'm guessing you didn't check the actual numbers before replying.

 

[NA Hockey]

When your a little skilled guy like Perfetti, speed is VERY important to compensate for the lack of physicality or some other flaws. I am a bit worried about it. He may not be the player we hoped he would be. He knows what to do, but often lacks the speed to get there and get it done.
If he does not make it to top six, speed will be the culprit that does him in. He is hanging on a thread right now. He will get top six with injuries now and undergo the acid test, and I am hoping for him as he has shown some progress with speed on occasion.

I know what you are saying but he just turned 22. He is going to get faster and stronger. He is no where close to the player he will be in 1, 2 or 3 years. Also, he was great the first half of the year and has struggled for the last 18 games mostly due to poor luck and lack of confidence compounding.

Where he is for the rest of this season I don’t know, but long term he is going to be more than fine. Even with an 18 game slump, he is still above .5 ppg and amongst the leaders on the team in scoring.

 

[Atoyot]

This is a pretty good analysis. I have been holding back being too critical, but Perfetti's lack of speed is a limiting factor, and if you combine is lack of size and strength it does start to get concerning. I've been holding onto the hope that his elite play making and hockey IQ can make up for it. Personally, I really want to see him played with our top offensive talent to see if that can break through. If not he may fade down to some complimentary role.


I'm guessing you didn't check the actual numbers before replying.

Nope, figured it was exaggerated.

 

[WolfHouse]

According to Natural Stats Trick 5on5 shift lengths for the 2023 - 2024 season to date Niki's average shift length is 0:45 and Scheifele's is 0:51.

I'd be interested to see the last 20 games - that general range - scheif was really good at short shifts but his old habits are back.. I thought gliding off the ice was long gone but its not

 

[KingBogo]

Nope, figured it was exaggerated.

Fair enough, but the extent of the exaggeration distorts the whole discussion.

 

[Atoyot]

Fair enough, but the extent of the exaggeration distorts the whole discussion.

Yeah I kind of just saw the reply and responded to it, didn't have time to think about it too much and mostly just took away that the evidence Ehlers can't play top line is because he takes shorter shifts.

 

[NA Hockey]

This is a pretty good analysis. I have been holding back being too critical, but Perfetti's lack of speed is a limiting factor, and if you combine is lack of size and strength it does start to get concerning. I've been holding onto the hope that his elite play making and hockey IQ can make up for it. Personally, I really want to see him played with our top offensive talent to see if that can break through. If not he may fade down to some complimentary role.


I'm guessing you didn't check the actual numbers before replying.

He’s 22 and already had a lot success. An 18 game sample of struggling shouldn’t trump what he did the first 40 games or the rest of his career.

I feel like his confidence is way down due to some poor luck and a stretch of bad games but once he gets a couple points he will get back to where left off early in January where he was contributing nightly and was .75 ppg game. At that time he was amongst the very top u23 players in all of the game in influencing games and production. He didn’t forget how to play or get worse, he is going through something that happens to all players at some point l, especially young players.

 

[WolfHouse]

At this point I'd seriously look at a conditioning stint for perfetti to see what he generates with lambert and figure out chemistry for next year.... he's too slow for what bones wants from a fourth line (names is actually too slow too) - so we don't get that strong forecheck we had earlier in the season - the fourth line used to tire their opponents out and then bones would put the 1st line out to capitalize on that

Kfc-scheif-nino
Names-monahan-ehlers
Iafallo-lowry-vilardi
Ajf-gus-barron

Basically Nino and names are out there to try to get the lines back to the system

 

[sipowicz]

Yesterday.......Yes, in league aggregate....no.

Stars we’re better in all 3 games they played each other, maybe 4th times the charm for the Jets!

At this point I'd seriously look at a conditioning stint for perfetti to see what he generates with lambert and figure out chemistry for next year.... he's too slow for what bones wants from a fourth line (names is actually too slow too) - so we don't get that strong forecheck we had earlier in the season - the fourth line used to tire their opponents out and then bones would put the 1st line out to capitalize on that

Kfc-scheif-nino
Names-monahan-ehlers
Iafallo-lowry-vilardi
Ajf-gus-barron

Basically Nino and names are out there to try to get the lines back to the system

No AHL Apples or small, slow Perfetan, I like it!

 

[WolfHouse]

At this point I'd seriously look at a conditioning stint for perfetti to see what he generates with lambert and figure out chemistry for next year.... he's too slow for what bones wants from a fourth line (names is actually too slow too) - so we don't get that strong forecheck we had earlier in the season - the fourth line used to tire their opponents out and then bones would put the 1st line out to capitalize on that

Kfc-scheif-nino
Names-monahan-ehlers
Iafallo-lowry-vilardi
Ajf-gus-barron

Basically Nino and names are out there to try to get the lines back to the system

Stars we’re better in all 3 games they played each other, maybe 4th times the charm for the Jets!


No AHL Apples or small, slow Perfetan, I like it!

#guslivesmatter