Post-Game Talk: Stars 4 - Jets 1

[KingBogo]

Yeah I'm kind of just saw the reply and responded to it, didn't have time to think about it too much and mostly just took away that the evidence Ehlers can't play top line is because he takes shorter shifts.

I get you. I have gotten into the habit of opening up Capfriendly, Natural Stats Trick, draft history info, scouting reports and various other sources of information before engaging on this board in an attempt to stay as accurate as possible and avoid spreading misinformation. And even then you throw out bad shit once in awhile and you should get called on it.

 

[ThinIce61]

Well of course I handed them to you. What on earth would I keep them for?

You collect fossils?

 

[RustyCat]

Yes this was a loss and be all accounts here the team played poorly. I would argue that as far as litmus tests go, they managed fairly well. Dallas, in my view, is the team to beat for the cup. They are loaded top to bottom and were without Tanev, Seguin, and Dadanov, and the whole team is trending upwards.

Given where we are at in getting our mojo back, Id say we faired as well as we could. Key is to not see it as a negative thing that we lost. It is to see that this team was on a serious run for the first half, got lost for a while, and slowly finding those ingredients that made us dominant again. Its like a slow congealing of confidence back into what made the first half work. The metric that the advanced analytics of Chef's line confirms that. Yes we lost but it appears that it was the little things were going right. We were always going to loose that game. Dallas is too good and the team to beat. It is about losing and sticking to your systems.

This is the perfect opponent to measure against on how you are doing systems-wise. It could have been a blowout, but it wasn't.

 

[surixon]

Ok, this year we were second in 5 on 5 goals through the first half at 2.34 goals per game. To date we are scoring at 1.29 5 on 5 goals per game the back half. So we've dropped an entire goal per game so far. That's crazy and certainly explains why almost every player sans the ones on the top pp unit have slumped hard.

To put it into perspective our second half collapse last year only saw us drop 0.2 5 on 5 goals per game.

Is this just an extreme cold spell for the team or has Bones tweaked something for the second half that isn't working or the team hasn't adapted to yet.

 

[DRW204]

For me it is taking into account what they can shed light on and where they aren't very effective. While I have pulled them out more than a few times in a discussion to try and prove a point, I don't always acknowledge in that discussion where the hole is. So I agree they are thrown around like the be end all of the discussion, when often there is a mile wide counter argument that can be made. For me the biggest example is xGF% which doesn't take into account shooter skill level. For example, give Kyle Connor 100 high danger shots from various positions in the offensive zone compared to lets say Kupari with the same 100 high danger shots and Connor likely scores 20-30 more goals, yet they would have the same xGF%. Coaches say hey I need those extra 20-30 goals, so xGF% only carries so much weight.

It's not supposed to take into account shooter skill level. That's the whole point. Measuring shot type and where they come from is the main benefit. When you compare GF VS xGF that takes into account shooter skill against a reference benchmark for all nhl players, KC will have a higher differential than Kupari.

XGF% takes into account on-ice defense too. Connor could have the same xGF% as Kupari, but much higher xGF (evidently with higher xGA too).

And this is why people hate advanced stats.

 

[scelaton]

People bashing Bones for not playing Ehlers on the #1 line. Some players just can't handle playing top minutes game after game that's why their on the second line.
That's why you need depth to go advance in the playoffs ... injuries are a killer.

Makes sense except that vilardi has as much injury history as ehlers...

...not to mention that Ehlers hasn't missed a regular season game all year.

 

[gojetsgo]

...not to mention that Ehlers hasn't missed a regular season game all year.

well he missed all of training camp and has been taking practices off for a nagging injury and has been a gtd a couple of times so it's not like he's been fully healthy

 

[WolfHouse]

Ok, this year we were second in 5 on 5 goals through the first half at 2.34 goals per game. To date we are scoring at 1.29 5 on 5 goals per game the back half. So we've dropped an entire goal per game so far. That's crazy and certainly explains why almost every player sans the ones on the top pp unit have slumped hard.

To put it into perspective our second half collapse last year only saw us drop 0.2 5 on 5 goals per game.

Is this just an extreme cold spell for the team or has Bones tweaked something for the second half that isn't working or the team hasn't adapted to yet.

The eye test says the team stopped playing Bones system - started freewheeling and getting fancy - and scoring fell apart once everyone started cheating on their roles.

Another way to look at it is that the Scheif injury really juggled the lineup and we never recovered... but still the team should KNOW their gaps and their support roles by now.

Or it really is the trickle down effect of Connor cheating on his part of Bones' system and thats spiralling.

 

[scelaton]

well he missed all of training camp and has been taking practices off for a nagging injury and has been a gtd a couple of times so it's not like he's been fully healthy

Yes, he likely has a nagging injury from pre-season....but I was replying to a post that insinuated Ehlers could not handle the grind of top-line minutes over a season. There is really no evidence of that this season, since he has played in more games than every member of the top line.

 

[raideralex99]

He takes 40 second shifts. Chef takes 100 second shifts.

There was a discussion about this on one of the podcasts … they said Ehlers had the same amount of shifts (18) as the number 1 line but the ice time was 4 minutes difference.

 

[Snowboy]

I know what you are saying but he just turned 22. He is going to get faster and stronger. He is no where close to the player he will be in 1, 2 or 3 years. Also, he was great the first half of the year and has struggled for the last 18 games mostly due to poor luck and lack of confidence compounding.

Where he is for the rest of this season I don’t know, but long term he is going to be more than fine. Even with an 18 game slump, he is still above .5 ppg and amongst the leaders on the team in scoring.

Yes he is young and will develop, but the addling factor is all teams are moving to the speed game recently that is now standard. Without speed you will get lost in the new NHL. Every team wants a six foot two or three player that is fast regardless of position and little fellows will lose out more going forward unless they find their niche on a team. Watching Perfetti recently it appears as if he has twenty pounds of padding on him for protection slowing him down.......and he always appears in distress from his facial grimaces while huffing and puffing. He does not feel comfortable.

 

[surixon]

Yes he is young and will develop, but the addling factor is all teams are moving to the speed game recently that is now standard. Without speed you will get lost in the new NHL. Every team wants a six foot two or three player that is fast regardless of position and little fellows will lose out more going forward unless they find their niche on a team. Watching Perfetti recently it appears as if he has twenty pounds of padding on him for protection slowing him down.......and he always appears in distress from his facial grimaces while huffing and puffing. He does not feel comfortable.

Well he played 51 games last year and was in the 30 and 40 game range the prior two seasons due to an injury and COVID. Not really that surprising he's hit a bit of a fatigue wall. He hasn't played this much since his draft year. Also it's not just him not scoring, it's pretty much the entire team outside of the top line.

He'll be much more conditioned for the grind of a full season next year imo.

 

[Atoyot]

Yes he is young and will develop, but the addling factor is all teams are moving to the speed game recently that is now standard. Without speed you will get lost in the new NHL. Every team wants a six foot two or three player that is fast regardless of position and little fellows will lose out more going forward unless they find their niche on a team. Watching Perfetti recently it appears as if he has twenty pounds of padding on him for protection slowing him down.......and he always appears in distress from his facial grimaces while huffing and puffing. He does not feel comfortable.

He was flat out dominant for awhile with the speed and strength he has. He'll get stronger and faster, but he's shown he's already capable of being very effective with what he has. Consistency and confidence strikes me as bigger issues for him.

 

[Snowboy]

Well he played 51 games last year and was in the 30 and 40 game range the prior two seasons due to an injury and COVID. Not really that surprising he's hit a bit of a fatigue wall. He hasn't played this much since his draft year. Also it's not just him not scoring, it's pretty much the entire team outside of the top line.

He'll be much more conditioned for the grind of a full season next year imo.

I agree........I just hope he is not offered in trade or Ville as well for that matter. I say that because i don't think Bones likes little people. He want's a big rough and tumble team like the Dallas he helped build and he might go for it now or next season. We shall see.

 

[surixon]

I agree........I just hope he is not offered in trade or Ville as well for that matter. I say that because i don't think Bones likes little people. He want's a big rough and tumble team like the Dallas he helped build and he might go for it now or next season. We shall see.

Well Chevy loves Perfetti and he makes the roster decisions not Bones. Also Bones isn't here for the long term anyhow, he's likely gone this summer or next. I may not agree with everything Bones does, but Cole will be better served in the long run having had a hard demanding coach that tasked him with learning to play defense 1st.

I wish Moe had been much more demanding with the defensive games of the young forwards who broke in under him. We likely wouldn't be having some of the issues we have now had be worked to build more balanced players.

 

[Snowboy]

He was flat out dominant for awhile with the speed and strength he has. He'll get stronger and faster, but he's shown he's already capable of being very effective with what he has. Consistency and confidence strikes me as bigger issues for him.

Yes his confidence is shot. Something is wrong. It's written into his face........perhaps injuries, almost always the culprit.

 

[Buffdog]

At this point I'd seriously look at a conditioning stint for perfetti to see what he generates with lambert and figure out chemistry for next year.... he's too slow for what bones wants from a fourth line (names is actually too slow too) - so we don't get that strong forecheck we had earlier in the season - the fourth line used to tire their opponents out and then bones would put the 1st line out to capitalize on that

Kfc-scheif-nino
Names-monahan-ehlers
Iafallo-lowry-vilardi
Ajf-gus-barron

Basically Nino and names are out there to try to get the lines back to the system

I don't think you can send a guy to the AHL for a "conditioning stint" when he's been in the line up all along. It's for guys who are coming off an injury

Besides, since he's still waiver exempt, there'd be no reason to label it that. Its just what it is - a demotion

Part of his development into an NHL player is learning how to play through stretches like this and figuring out how to contribute to the team while the pucks just aren't going in the net. If you look at his slump as a chance to learn so it doesn't happen in the future, it can be seen as some kind of positive

When we drafted the kid, he looked like he was 12. Now he looks like he's 17. I think he's a bit of a late bloomer physically, and rhe grind of his first full NHL season is getting to him a bit. Let him figure it out on the fly

 

[Atoyot]

Yes his confidence is shot. Something is wrong. It's written into his face........perhaps injuries, almost always the culprit.

To be fair, his face always looks pretty miserable

 

[WolfHouse]

I don't think you can send a guy to the AHL for a "conditioning stint" when he's been in the line up all along. It's for guys who are coming off an injury

Besides, since he's still waiver exempt, there'd be no reason to label it that. Its just what it is - a demotion

Part of his development into an NHL player is learning how to play through stretches like this and figuring out how to contribute to the team while the pucks just aren't going in the net. If you look at his slump as a chance to learn so it doesn't happen in the future, it can be seen as some kind of positive

When we drafted the kid, he looked like he was 12. Now he looks like he's 17. I think he's a bit of a late bloomer physically, and rhe grind of his first full NHL season is getting to him a bit. Let him figure it out on the fly

AHL loan looks a lot better than just assigning him to the A - psychologically... everyone's knicked up - it can be done creatively

Regardless our bottom six is suffering with him down there - Bones needs an energy line and its just not Perfetti's style... we are supposed to be competing for the cup - personnel shouldn't matter whether its perfetti or Connor, etc - they need to get back to their system

 

[NA Hockey]

AHL loan looks a lot better than just assigning him to the A - psychologically... everyone's knicked up - it can be done creatively

Regardless our bottom six is suffering with him down there - Bones needs an energy line and its just not Perfetti's style... we are supposed to be competing for the cup - personnel shouldn't matter whether its perfetti or Connor, etc - they need to get back to their system

They played their system to perfection in the first half of the season with Perfetti as a key component. Get him back with top players and let him work through it. He is too important now and in the future.

It’s not like we are scrapping for playoff spot and it’s not like he is the only one struggling the last month.

Lastly, he has been in the bottom 6 for three games and for two of them he was very good and last game he was ok other than the giveaway(which happens to players all the time)

 

[GaryPoppins]

The stars are going to be a problem in the playoffs. They are deep as they get and have the goaltending to match. Dark horse cup winner

 

[NA Hockey]

The stars are going to be a problem in the playoffs. They are deep as they get and have the goaltending to match. Dark horse cup winner

More than a dark horse. a top 2 favourite imo to win it all.

 

[Atoyot]

AHL loan looks a lot better than just assigning him to the A - psychologically... everyone's knicked up - it can be done creatively

Regardless our bottom six is suffering with him down there - Bones needs an energy line and its just not Perfetti's style... we are supposed to be competing for the cup - personnel shouldn't matter whether its perfetti or Connor, etc - they need to get back to their system

Honestly I think the 4th line has been pretty great lately. Don't think Perfetti's hurting it at all.

 

[Stumbledore]

Why do you have contempt for advanced stats? I'll admit there are some weaknesses, and some advanced stats have trouble accounting for certain variables, especially xGF% IMO, And teams all probably have better internal measuring metrics. Saying that it gives additional understanding beyond the eye test which tends to be quite biased.

Because most of them are just snake oil. And how many times have the recording methods been proven to be flawed? You get 3 guys at a game independently recording attempted shots and they turn in 3 different totals, I figure it's mostly BS. You get different outfits generating different measures of anticipated this or that, I figure their algorithms are flawed.

You ask any reasonable person to defend advanced stats and they nearly always start with "I admit there's some weakness" and then list various systemic problems. You compare advanced stats with eye tests and you'd often think they applied to totally different games.

Well of course I handed them to you. What on earth would I keep them for?

I dunno, for your trophy case maybe? I'd expect an english major to know just a figure of speech when she sees one.

 

[Stumbledore]

You collect fossils?

Har har har. Nowhere near fossils, just non-functioning. They did their job now I just let them hang around.