Stamkos Discussion Thread - March 2016

[Territory]

Leafs would be stupid to not try and sign him. Even if they go 7 years, he wont be that old at the end of it.

 

[Kiwi]

I don't think people quite get this my problem with Stamkos is not his age it is his production and the direction it is going in as well as how much he is going to cost
His health has to also be a factor when we are weighing what we will offer him
As that article said his current production plus the average players decline means he is worth 9 mill over 7 years
Sure he may be miraculous and turn it all around and go back to what he was pre leg break but paying money on that basis seams massively risky
My offer to him would be 9.5 × 7
That is over his worth but we could use the guy anything more we are paying for reputation not who he is as a player right now

 

[Rielly4]

how much cap space do we really have though?

According to General Fanager we dont have much.

Stamkos would definitely be a great addition though, 50 goal scorer or not, prime or not...He would be a terrific add to our organization and be a great core member of our team while providing a great example for the kids on work ethic. Stamkos is known as a pretty hard working guy in the offseason.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

I don't think people quite get this my problem with Stamkos is not his age it is his production and the direction it is going in as well as how much he is going to cost
His health has to also be a factor when we are weighing what we will offer him
As that article said his current production plus the average players decline means he is worth 9 mill over 7 years
Sure he may be miraculous and turn it all around and go back to what he was pre leg break but paying money on that basis seams massively risky
My offer to him would be 9.5 × 7
That is over his worth but we could use the guy anything more we are paying for reputation not who he is as a player right now

I think the management team will aim for 9.5M like you are saying.

BUT, I feel it will fall somewhere in the 10M range.

Overpayment by a bit, but if we are going to "lose" on a deal it should be to someone like Stamkos. The worst is when management teams start overpaying 2nd liners.

You can live with someone overpaying a superstar.

 

[Kiwi]

I think the management team will aim for 9.5M like you are saying.

BUT, I feel it will fall somewhere in the 10M range.

Overpayment by a bit, but if we are going to "lose" on a deal it should be to someone like Stamkos. The worst is when management teams start overpaying 2nd liners.

You can live with someone overpaying a superstar.

I will certainly agree with you nothing ruins the cap situation like overpaying bottom six forwards or bottom two defenceman
Someone is paying him 10+ I don't think there is any doubt over that one
Who that is I don't know but I'm sure we will be in there somewhere whether I agree with it or not

 

[Shwaguy*]

The thing with Stammer is if he under performs for his standard. You're still getting 7mil/year production or so, if you pay him 10 mil, that's 3 mil overpay. 3 mil sucks, but it's not like when you overpay a middle 6 winger for 6mil and he plummets and is worth a league min contract.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I'm torn on Stamkos

On the one hand, we haven't had a star player in a long time. He's the #1 C we've been without since Sundin left.
But now long and how much do you pay? And does it hurt the rebuild?

 

[LeafFever]

how much cap space do we really have though?

According to General Fanager we dont have much.

Stamkos would definitely be a great addition though, 50 goal scorer or not, prime or not...He would be a terrific add to our organization and be a great core member of our team while providing a great example for the kids on work ethic. Stamkos is known as a pretty hard working guy in the offseason.

We took on cap room in the Phaneuf trade, but it's gone after next season. we're in very good shape overall.

 

[Unhealthy Scratch]

He's not scoring 50+ goals.
He's not in his prime.

If he were, there wouldn't be a ****ing discussion.

Remember the ****ing discussion about Ovechkin being past his prime in 2012?

The situation with Stamkos mirrors that pretty closely, what with his feuding with the coach, being shuffled around the line-up, speculation that his gung-ho style of play has already taken its toll, etc.

It's possible he never hits 50 again, but you'd have to be pretty naive to just write it off as a foregone conclusion. Not to mention the implication that he won't be worth $10M unless he's literally the #1 goal scorer in the NHL (remember, scoring is down and OV lead the league this season with exactly 50 goals). Even 40 would put him in the top 3-5.

 

[Faltorvo]

Remember the ****ing discussion about Ovechkin being past his prime in 2012?

The situation with Stamkos mirrors that pretty closely, what with his feuding with the coach, being shuffled around the line-up, speculation that his gung-ho style of play has already taken its toll, etc.

It's possible he never hits 50 again, but you'd have to be pretty naive to just write it off as a foregone conclusion. Not to mention the implication that he won't be worth $10M unless he's literally the #1 goal scorer in the NHL (remember, scoring is down and OV lead the league this season with exactly 50 goals). Even 40 would put him in the top 3-5.

Well heres the thing with all these paper tiger stats geeks

There is no reference to the down grade in quality offensive creativity that has happened since STLoo left his line.

No one is adding the added value of picking up a #1 C for no picks/prospect going out the door

No one is paying enough attention to his leadership quality's and the fact that in the gym and off the ice, he is a excellent role model

The fact that he would shelter our up and coming young Cs and also be a high skilled center for a skill winger to play with and work off of, like a marner or even nylander or who ever.

now lay that on top of his elite skills and, well

 

[ULF_55]

I'd be disappointed if they go over 8.7 million.

 

[Pyromaniac3]

I'd be disappointed if they go over 8.7 million.

Same here. He is currently producing at a similar pace with Getzlaf/Perry who signed contracts around $8.5M.

 

[LV*]

9.1 for 7 years

Book it

 

[Unhealthy Scratch]

Same here. He is currently producing at a similar pace with Getzlaf/Perry who signed contracts around $8.5M.

The cap ceiling was quite a bit lower when they signed those deals. As a percentage of overall cap space, if they were to sign those contracts now, they'd be making around $9.5M/year - possibly more if the ceiling rises again.

 

[Stats01]

It's going to be amazing if we get two franchise #1 C's in 1 off-season after years and years of that spot being a massive black hole for this team. Drafting Matthews and signing Stamkos would be so massive for this franchise. Kadri being our #3 would be insane depth

 

[Cor]

If we get Stamkos for below 10M, I'd be amazed.

 

[Pyromaniac3]

The cap ceiling was quite a bit lower when they signed those deals. As a percentage of overall cap space, if they were to sign those contracts now, they'd be making around $9.5M/year - possibly more if the ceiling rises again.

You are correct but I think ANA also factored the cap rising in their negotiations. Can we go with same thinking at the cap will rise in the same way as it has in the past few years? If Stamkos signed for $9.5M, do we expect the same level of capspace available that ANA did? I don't think so.

 

[Stephen]

People get all bent out of shape that a $10 million Stamkos prevents the Leafs from doing A, B, C. But the reality is a slight clean up of the cap allows you to accommodate those kinds of players.

Right now we have an excess of $12 million simply tied to Bozak and a couple of creative cap maneuvers in Michalek and Laich.

 

[Stats01]

If we get Stamkos for below 10M, I'd be amazed.

this. TB offered him 8.5 and he declined, so to the guy that said he would be disappointed for anything over 8.7....well get prepared to be disappointed, I don't see him signing for anything less than 10

I think at this point in the game we can all assume he won't be back in TB, there is no way TB is giving him 10+ mil a year when they have guys like Kucherov, Bishop, Johnson to get locked up

 

[Stats01]

People get all bent out of shape that a $10 million Stamkos prevents the Leafs from doing A, B, C. But the reality is a slight clean up of the cap allows you to accommodate those kinds of players.

Right now we have an excess of $12 million simply tied to Bozak and a couple of creative cap maneuvers in Michalek and Laich.

this. Bozak can be moved, what we get back really won't be something we need to hang our hats on. Just getting rid of his cap hit will give us plenty of room to fit Stammer in.

And Bozak would definitely be the guy to go because we'd have Stamkos, Matthews, Kadri, and Laich as our 4 C's. Bozak doesn't fit

 

[Pyromaniac3]

this. TB offered him 8.5 and he declined, so to the guy that said he would be disappointed for anything over 8.7

Is there any credible report that says Stamkos rejected TB's offer because it is too low? Or are there perhaps other factors here that Stamkos is considering?

 

[Stats01]

Is there any credible report that says Stamkos rejected TB's offer because it is too low? Or are there perhaps other factors here that Stamkos is considering?

http://www.thescore.com/news/943958

Friedman was the original source. Not sure what Friedman means "rejected isn't the right term to use"...well if he didn't accept it then he rejected it lol

 

[Unhealthy Scratch]

People get all bent out of shape that a $10 million Stamkos prevents the Leafs from doing A, B, C. But the reality is a slight clean up of the cap allows you to accommodate those kinds of players.

Right now we have an excess of $12 million simply tied to Bozak and a couple of creative cap maneuvers in Michalek and Laich.

Yeah, I don't think we'd have to worry too much about losing a Nylander or Marner in a few years having signed Stamkos. We'd just have to shed Bozak, Lupul, etc., which appears to be the plan regardless.

 

[ULF_55]

Is there any credible report that says Stamkos rejected TB's offer because it is too low? Or are there perhaps other factors here that Stamkos is considering?

Some quote the other day saying Stamkos really wants Toronto.

If that's the case, would it matter if Lightning offered him 12?

Althought, Canada and the NHL is not the same as the NBA, Stamkos in Toronto would closest to marketing opportunities available since Gretzky.

Maybe Stamkos is willing to give up money to live somewhere, I know I did and it wasn't for 8.7 million!!!!!!

 

[666]

Most teams fill out their core positions from the draft these days.

Increasing the number of draft picks increases the chance you have of getting those desired players.

Just look at the history of the draft. About once every 3 or 4 years a top player is picked with a late 1st or second rounder. The probability of landing a #1C or #1D with one of those picks is less than 1%.

Collecting late firsts and seconds is not going to fill those core spots. That's why the Leafs need to sign Stamkos (assuming we don't get Mathews) because we need to use our future early first rounders on defense and maybe goaltending but picking goaltenders early is pretty risky too.