Stamkos Discussion Thread - March 2016

[indigobuffalo]

Friedman was speculating that Yzerman's offer to Stamkos "started with an '8'..." so I would imagine that means $80-89M range, and assuming 8-years, would be a cap hit between $10M to $11.125M.

I'm going out on a limb but just assuming he didn't mean $8M to $8.9M per season AAV.

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[sxvnert]

Stamkos is worth 9. Not a penny more.

 

[Snow Dog]

Stamkos is worth 9. Not a penny more.

What about 9.1.

 

[Pookie]

and you can't say that either.You have absolutely no proof as to any salary expectations of Stamkos.

Proof. The internet Forum go to phrase.

No one has proof of anything. At least, last I checked Newport didn't call my home office line so I know I don't.

What I do know is what Kopitar signed for. Do you think it's logical that Stamkos wants more or less than Kopitar?

As for the Leafs saying they would sign him for 10m, that's not a question of logic. It's a question of Tampering.

 

[81Leafs50]

Interesting article on Stamkos and the Leafs

LINK

 

[Ace]

Interesting article on Stamkos and the Leafs

LINK

The Buffalo write up is something else. Blaming management for buying out contracts they didn't sign...the expensive two of which were the non cap penalty buyouts. Then somehow turning paying RoR into a negative...and making out the one year left of Franson as this horrible anchor contract... Or ignoring that they actually saved money on the Bogosian contract in that trade because Myers cost more...in an argument about how they use their cap... Imagine hitting send on an article where having Franson at 1 year 3 mil is a reason they are hampered by contracts.

And the "look what they added and still bad" point just flatly ignores both a 20+ point improvement and that they did it with the second most games lost to injury in the league. And not to scrubs. #1 goalie out most of year. Top goal scorer from last year out all year. RoR and Kane a month each. 2 of the top 3 D out longer.

Just a real bad effort.

When he couldn't say they didn't have the money he just decided to make up a fantasy narrative.

"Not a well run organization"

Yes. If you blame the people in charge for what people who were fired before them did. The ones here scorched the earth to draft high and collect as many high draft picks in a short period of time possible to use in draft and trade.

...

Hmm...that sounds familiar. Like I've seen this done somewhere since. Can't put my finger on it. Bet he'd say the same about any organization taking those steps. But I better keep reading to be sure.

...

"guaranteed the leafs draft top 3 this year. Don't believe the hype about picking 4"

Oh he doesn't even understand math. Or what the word guarantee means. One of those.

...

Yes. "Interesting" article.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The Buffalo write up is something else. Blaming management for buying out contracts they didn't sign...the expensive two of which were the non cap penalty buyouts. Then somehow turning paying RoR into a negative...and making out the one year left of Franson as this horrible anchor contract... Or ignoring that they actually saved money on the Bogosian contract in that trade because Myers cost more...in an argument about how they use their cap... Imagine hitting send on an article where having Franson at 1 year 3 mil is a reason they are hampered by contracts.

And the "look what they added and still bad" point just flatly ignores both a 20+ point improvement and that they did it with the second most games lost to injury in the league. And not to scrubs. #1 goalie out most of year. Top goal scorer from last year out all year. RoR and Kane a month each. 2 of the top 3 D out longer.

Just a real bad effort.

When he couldn't say they didn't have the money he just decided to make up a fantasy narrative.

"Not a well run organization"

Yes. If you blame the people in charge for what people who were fired before them did. The ones here scorched the earth to draft high and collect as many high draft picks in a short period of time possible to use in draft and trade.

...

Hmm...that sounds familiar. Like I've seen this done somewhere since. Can't put my finger on it. Bet he'd say the same about any organization taking those steps. But I better keep reading to be sure.

...

"guaranteed the leafs draft top 3 this year. Don't believe the hype about picking 4"

Oh he doesn't even understand math. Or what the word guarantee means. One of those.

...

Yes. "Interesting" article.

LOL. Nice write-up, save me the trouble of reading it. My pet peeve is people who don't have basic understanding of probability and talk as if they do - this guaranteed top 3 pick is all I need to hear to avoid this.

LOL.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Damien Cox had this suggestion about Stamkos accepting a shorter term deal with Toronto, however he would still make 20% max salary.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Damien Cox had this suggestion about Stamkos accepting a shorter term deal with Toronto, however he would still make 20% max salary.

Much rather something like this (although max salary seems excessive, but not a huge deal) than 7x10+. If it doesn't work out, just move him in year 3 with retention.

 

[rdawg1234]

Damien Cox had this suggestion about Stamkos accepting a shorter term deal with Toronto, however he would still make 20% max salary.

I dont think a guy like him would want to risk a short-term contract, I would want long-term money guarentees in-case of injury.

If he signs with the leafs and doesn't like it, he can request a trade.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

I dont think a guy like him would want to risk a short-term contract, I would want long-term money guarentees in-case of injury.

If he signs with the leafs and doesn't like it, he can request a trade.

Not liking playing in a city tends to go hand in hand with playing poorly for that team. If he puts up a couple 65 point seasons, who's going to want him with 5 years left at 10+? If you sign him to a long-term contract you better believe he's going to be a top piece for the majority of it, counting on being able to trade him if it goes poorly is a terribly risky idea. Maybe if Lombardi was our GM..

 

[rdawg1234]

Not liking playing in a city tends to go hand in hand with playing poorly for that team. If he puts up a couple 65 point seasons, who's going to want him with 5 years left at 10+? If you sign him to a long-term contract you better believe he's going to be a top piece for the majority of it, counting on being able to trade him if it goes poorly is a terribly risky idea. Maybe if Lombardi was our GM..

Salary retention is always an option if he has 3-4 years left if it really came down to that(just like with kessel)

I dont think it would be hard if he had a 10m contract and we retained 3-4m in salary if you really had to go down that path.

but honestly do we really think it would get to that point? and look how we still were able to trade a 7 million 6 year contract in dion without retention and he wasn't even playing that well.

I just don't see that big of a risk, he's far too young, too highly skilled etc. and i find it unlikely he would go full-blown dany heatley all of a sudden.

 

[gamer1035]

I'd be willing to give him a 2 year max deal. Year 1 we will tank. Year 2 we will attempt to win and finish as a bubble playoff team. We will then resign him to an 8 year deal for fair dollars as he sees the upside our team has

 

[Gary Nylund]

Salary retention is always an option if he has 3-4 years left if it really came down to that(just like with kessel)

I dont think it would be hard if he had a 10m contract and we retained 3-4m in salary if you really had to go down that path.

but honestly do we really think it would get to that point? and look how we still were able to trade a 7 million 6 year contract in dion without retention and he wasn't even playing that well.

I just don't see that big of a risk, he's far too young, too highly skilled etc. and i find it unlikely he would go full-blown dany heatley all of a sudden.

Yikes, that's a scary thought.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Salary retention is always an option if he has 3-4 years left if it really came down to that(just like with kessel)

I dont think it would be hard if he had a 10m contract and we retained 3-4m in salary if you really had to go down that path.

but honestly do we really think it would get to that point? and look how we still were able to trade a 7 million 6 year contract in dion without retention and he wasn't even playing that well.

I just don't see that big of a risk, he's far too young, too highly skilled etc. and i find it unlikely he would go full-blown dany heatley all of a sudden.

Can we afford 4 mil in dead cap space when the kids are all going to be getting their 2nd contracts? I don't really see that being something management would be willing to do. Dion was a little different because he's averaging something around 6mil in real money for the rest of his contract because of the signing bonuses he's already been paid.

Heatley's an interesting player to bring up. If Stamkos suffers the same groin/knee injuries that Heatley racked up, what really separates them as players? Having an elite slapshot doesn't do you much good if you can't get in position to use it fast enough. What else about Stamkos's game is significantly above average?

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Can we afford 4 mil in dead cap space when the kids are all going to be getting their 2nd contracts? I don't really see that being something management would be willing to do. Dion was a little different because he's averaging something around 6mil in real money for the rest of his contract because of the signing bonuses he's already been paid.

Heatley's an interesting player to bring up. If Stamkos suffers the same groin/knee injuries that Heatley racked up, what really separates them as players? Having an elite slapshot doesn't do you much good if you can't get in position to use it fast enough. What else about Stamkos's game is significantly above average?

Injuries are a risk with every player you ever sign. You can't use that logic when signing UFA contracts.

The smart thing is to reduce the "real" dollars on the backend of his contract so he is tradeable. Its the only viable way of ensuring he doesn't haunt us later on.

 

[Kurisu]

what thread # is this?

 

[brettzz]

I mean... he could lock down for 8 years 10 per as the captain of a perennial playoff team in Florida.. or he could take 3 years for whatever the leafs offer, have to worry about another contract very soon, playoffs are a big maybe...

what would you choose

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Injuries are a risk with every player you ever sign. You can't use that logic when signing UFA contracts.

The smart thing is to reduce the "real" dollars on the backend of his contract so he is tradeable. Its the only viable way of ensuring he doesn't haunt us later on.

It's not the injury risk itself, it's his playstyle's sensitivity to injury. For example, if Jagr gets injured in a way that makes him slower, he obviously won't be as good as pre-injury, but he'd still be an effective top-6 forward because of his elite puck control ability. Stamkos's game would suffer MUCH more if he got slower or was injured in a way that worsens his shot. One-shot scorers that don't carry the puck tend to be the most affected by injury compared to other types of players. It certainly doesn't help when they already have a rod holding their leg together.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

The Buffalo write up is something else. Blaming management for buying out contracts they didn't sign...the expensive two of which were the non cap penalty buyouts. Then somehow turning paying RoR into a negative...and making out the one year left of Franson as this horrible anchor contract... Or ignoring that they actually saved money on the Bogosian contract in that trade because Myers cost more...in an argument about how they use their cap... Imagine hitting send on an article where having Franson at 1 year 3 mil is a reason they are hampered by contracts.

And the "look what they added and still bad" point just flatly ignores both a 20+ point improvement and that they did it with the second most games lost to injury in the league. And not to scrubs. #1 goalie out most of year. Top goal scorer from last year out all year. RoR and Kane a month each. 2 of the top 3 D out longer.

Just a real bad effort.

When he couldn't say they didn't have the money he just decided to make up a fantasy narrative.

"Not a well run organization"

Yes. If you blame the people in charge for what people who were fired before them did. The ones here scorched the earth to draft high and collect as many high draft picks in a short period of time possible to use in draft and trade.

...

Hmm...that sounds familiar. Like I've seen this done somewhere since. Can't put my finger on it. Bet he'd say the same about any organization taking those steps. But I better keep reading to be sure.

...

"guaranteed the leafs draft top 3 this year. Don't believe the hype about picking 4"

Oh he doesn't even understand math. Or what the word guarantee means. One of those.

...

Yes. "Interesting" article.

Sums up my thoughts pretty succinctly. Buffalo is going to be terrifying in a few years...Eichel, RoR, Reinhardt, Risto, Kane, (Lehner if he pans out) is a pretty sick base to work from, not to mention another top pic coming this season. I think Buffalo could be an actual landing spot that doesnt get talked about near enough. Not the most glamorous place to be sure but good hockey town/team on the upswing. Providing ownership opens up their purse strings could be an appealing spot. Poorly realized "piece"

 

[LeafFever]

Friedman was speculating that Yzerman's offer to Stamkos "started with an '8'..." so I would imagine that means $80-89M range, and assuming 8-years, would be a cap hit between $10M to $11.125M.

I'm going out on a limb but just assuming he didn't mean $8M to $8.9M per season AAV.

Is this recent? I thought the last reported offer was 8.5 million per.

 

[LeafFever]

Sums up my thoughts pretty succinctly. Buffalo is going to be terrifying in a few years...Eichel, RoR, Reinhardt, Risto, Kane is a pretty sick base to work from, not to mention another top pic coming this season. I think Buffalo could be an actual landing spot that doesnt get talked about near enough. Not the most glamorous place to be sure but good hockey town/team on the upswing. Providing ownership opens up their purse strings could be an appealing spot

Buffalo gets talked about a lot. I do think Stamkos will not go there though. He'll never play centre again and they really have to think before adding another huge contract. They'll need to sign their young players.

And BTW Kane is vastly overrated. It's been 6 years since his 30 goal season. He's done nothing since but be injured and be a pain in the ass to his teams.

 

[LeafFever]

I mean... he could lock down for 8 years 10 per as the captain of a perennial playoff team in Florida.. or he could take 3 years for whatever the leafs offer, have to worry about another contract very soon, playoffs are a big maybe...

what would you choose

How do you know a money losing team like Florida can even make an offer?
I constantly see teams that are already losing money or don't have cap room as "Better fits" for Stamkos.
The reality is there will likely be a small amount of teams offering the 7 year 11 million deals he will command.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Damien Cox had this suggestion about Stamkos accepting a shorter term deal with Toronto, however he would still make 20% max salary.

I'm all for signing Stamkos, and am willing to see the Leafs offer more than most are comfortable with, but a short term deal makes absolute no sense. The purpose of signing him is to get him for the long haul and be a part of the rebuilding/growing process from the infancy stages right on through to being a contender. There's no point to having him come for a cup of coffee and then allowing him an out for greener pastures if he so pleases. He's not helping bring a Cup within three years. That to me signals a short-sighted, Leafs-esque type signing.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Buffalo gets talked about a lot. I do think Stamkos will not go there though. He'll never play centre again and they really have to think before adding another huge contract. They'll need to sign their young players.

And BTW Kane is vastly overrated. It's been 6 years since his 30 goal season. He's done nothing since but be injured and be a pain in the ass to his teams.

This post was in response to a misguided article which said that Stamkos would never go to Buffalo because they had horrendous management and were rebuilding the wrong way. Given the collective emerging talent on the roster I found this a pretty dubious statement.