Stamkos Discussion Thread - March 2016

[Canada4Gold]

I like James Mirtle, and I feel like the article has some value.

However, this pretty much butchers how proper economic research is done. He's not performing test, he's practically talking about open source information and combining it into a study.

pretty sure that's not Mirtle writing that article, Mirtle just posted a link to it on twitter because it's a decent article.

 

[The Examiner]

Is that what it's going to be too when we're back in the playoffs? Every $ counts. Pure ignoramus comment if you ask me.

Exactly. Such ignorance. Just look at Chicago and the cap hell they were in after they won their first cup. They haven't been able to recover and I doubt they ever sniff the playoffs agai... oh wait.

 

[Purity*]

Getting Stamkos for free is awesome from an entertainment perspective, no doubt about that.

But what really are the implications of it in the harsh cap-world? Teams like St. Louis and Washington can tell a lot of the story. They've spent to the cap and have iced rosters easily capable of winning the cup, but unfortunately they just didn't spend their $ efficiently enough.

Exactly. Such ignorance. Just look at Chicago and the cap hell they were in after they won their first cup. They haven't been able to recover and I doubt they ever sniff the playoffs agai... oh wait.

How exactly is this relevant?

 

[firstemperor]

I like James Mirtle, and I feel like the article has some value.

However, this pretty much butchers how proper economic research is done. He's not performing test, he's practically talking about open source information and combining it into a study.

What's wrong with that? A lot of scientific papers are systematic reviews, predicated on existing studies.

The author did a lot of research here to write a well-informed article with insight and quantitative evidence as to why he made his conclusions/opinions. It was well done. It's rare for anyone in Hockey to do things like this. I commend them, it takes a lot more effort to do this than what other hockey writers come close to.

 

[Faltorvo]

Yeah so my question is what is Stamkos doing that those players do do earn their money?

He's nowhere near Toews in terms of shutting down team's star players (or even production for that matter when it comes to the post-season) and he sure as hell can't do anything even close to what Kane does in the post-season (clutch-wise and all).

Feel free to hide behind petty insults to ignore the facts.



Is that what it's going to be too when we're back in the playoffs? Every $ counts. Pure ignoramus comment if you ask me.

we have a project cap space of 36 million in 2017/18 and thats with a flat 74m cap and
Bozak,Lupul chewing up 9.5 million in cap.

toss in a normal 3m cap raise=39 in space , get rid of the dead weight in lupul,bozak

now we are at 48 million in cap space , add in Hortons LTIR relief, now we are at 53 million in cap space

if one can't call that unlimited compared to the rest of the league and the norms, fine

i'll call it "way more then enough"

 

[Kiwi]

oh i disagree, i believe he has plenty of 50 goal , 90 point seasons ahead of him.

he like other elite players just need more then just killorn and dubinsky as offensive line mates

i firmly believe with a winger like marner or nylander would greatly enhance his game and production and just as importantly enhance marner or nylander.

He already is declining
At 26 he is on the downward side of the curve for a forward
If you think that he is going to be a 90 point player with his injury history and at his age you are in for a big surprise
He is worth 9.5mill over 7 anything more and you are paying for past production

 

[Kiwi]

we have a project cap space of 36 million in 2017/18 and thats with a flat 74m cap and
Bozak,Lupul chewing up 9.5 million in cap.

toss in a normal 3m cap raise=39 in space , get rid of the dead weight in lupul,bozak

now we are at 48 million in cap space , add in Hortons LTIR relief, now we are at 53 million in cap space

if one can't call that unlimited compared to the rest of the league and the norms, fine

i'll call it "way more then enough"

This is a short term view
It is not the first few years that worrie me it is the last 2/3 when he is seriously declining and we have to pay our young guys we will be in cap hell
Don't overpay!

 

[gabeliscious]

This is a short term view
It is not the first few years that worrie me it is the last 2/3 when he is seriously declining and we have to pay our young guys we will be in cap hell
Don't overpay!

how bad do you expect stamkos to decline from 30-32? the guy is a specimin. i dont think his conditioning is going to be an issue.

its very seldom that a top line center is available as a ufa. even if we overpay and give him $11 million, imo it is the trade off for getting him for free.

the money will be a non issue for ~5years. it might be tigher in year 5 but we also dont know where the cap will be.

bottom line is stamkos makes us better and we have cap space to get it done.

 

[Menzinger]

oh i disagree, i believe he has plenty of 50 goal , 90 point seasons ahead of him.

he like other elite players just need more then just killorn and dubinsky as offensive line mates

i firmly believe with a winger like marner or nylander would greatly enhance his game and production and just as importantly enhance marner or nylander.

Fair enough.

I'd agree that having him with a Marner/Nylander type player would be a boost to his production, easily.

 

[Faltorvo]

This is a short term view
It is not the first few years that worrie me it is the last 2/3 when he is seriously declining and we have to pay our young guys we will be in cap hell
Don't overpay!

i think that premise is pure utter garbage

and IF our young kids are able to command high contracts at such a age, that means many turned into gems and we are a serious cup contenders

so your "concerns" don't bother me one little bit

in 5 years the cap will be up by about 15 million and even more if/when the CAD gets closer to par, Hortons ltir is gone,gleason cap hit is gone

 

[Kiwi]

i think that premise is pure utter garbage

and IF our young kids are able to command high contracts at such a age, that means many turned into gems and we are a serious cup contenders

so your "concerns" don't bother me one little bit

in 5 years the cap will be up by about 15 million and even more if/when the CAD gets closer to par, Hortons ltir is gone,gleason cap hit is gone

The guy is declining already and has injury issues if that does not raise red flags with anyone here there is nothing anyone says that will change your mind
If there gems and we can't pay them because we have a declining offensive player who is below average defensively that should concern everyone

 

[coachbob]

He already is declining
At 26 he is on the downward side of the curve for a forward
If you think that he is going to be a 90 point player with his injury history and at his age you are in for a big surprise
He is worth 9.5mill over 7 anything more and you are paying for past production

Maybe he is a pure sniper like a Brett Hull, Mike Gartner......they remained dangerous well into their thirties. The thought of Marner feeding him perfect passes 5 years from now when Marner is a star, is enough for me to take a flier on Stamkos at the 10 mil mark over 7 years.

 

[Kiwi]

Maybe he is a pure sniper like a Brett Hull, Mike Gartner......they remained dangerous well into their thirties. The thought of Marner feeding him perfect passes 5 years from now when Marner is a star, is enough for me to take a flier on Stamkos at the 10 mil mark over 7 years.

I'm not against taking a punt on the guy but not over 9.5mill over 7
If we get Mathews its a hard pass imo
You will need one hell of a good defensive winger beside those two until Marner becomes a complete two way winger
Stamkos is below average defensively no matter which way you cut it

 

[Stephen]

The salary cap is a truly miserable invention. Fans now spend more time crunching spreadsheets and worry about keeping their as of yet unassembled future dynasties together than look forward to adding major talent to their 30th place teams.

Can't see the forest for the trees.

 

[TheCLAM]

pretty sure that's not Mirtle writing that article, Mirtle just posted a link to it on twitter because it's a decent article.

It's a decent article

I do research papers for a living, this falls into a "literature review" category.

 

[TheCLAM]

What's wrong with that? A lot of scientific papers are systematic reviews, predicated on existing studies.

The author did a lot of research here to write a well-informed article with insight and quantitative evidence as to why he made his conclusions/opinions. It was well done. It's rare for anyone in Hockey to do things like this. I commend them, it takes a lot more effort to do this than what other hockey writers come close to.

It's a literature review essentially. They didn't take functions of each review and combine them into one model. It turned into a cluster of article summarized with reasoning.

Well written, just not my type of article. It's just repeating the obvious

 

[Stephen]

The article was pointlessly rigorous.

 

[Faltorvo]

It's a literature review essentially. They didn't take functions of each review and combine them into one model. It turned into a cluster of article summarized with reasoning.

Well written, just not my type of article. It's just repeating the obvious

What is a glaring omission is any kind of charting

showing the drop in production when high skilled players had and then lose other high skilled players as line mates.

after playing for 43 years and being one of those top 6 skilled guys (in lows league hockey)
i know the full value of creative offensive chemistry and the need for skill with skill

nothing more damaging then having great creative skilled plays die on the stick of a plugger/plumber.

it should come at no surprise that anytime we think of a great all time forwards, there almost always another on that line

Gretz-Kurri
Lemieux,Jagr
Hull,Oates
Dionne,Taylor,simmer
Savard,larmer
Sittler,Mcdonald
Gilmour,andrychuk
Getz,perry
Seguin,benn
Trottier,bossy
i could go on and on and on with the comparibles throughout history.

 

[080]

Stamkos had 22 points in his final 21 games -- 15 of them goals. I think he'll be fine. If there's a team in the league with young players who can replicate what he had with St. Louis, it's us; Marner and Nylander both look to be setup machines.

Though I'm still on the fence about signing him. It depends on what happens in 2 weeks time at the lottery.

 

[Duke Silver]

It's a decent article

I do research papers for a living, this falls into a "literature review" category.

Oh stop being so semantical.

The article uses comparables and historical rates to determine future production and contract value. Who cares what someone labels it. It gives us a good idea of his value.

 

[Kiwi]

The salary cap is a truly miserable invention. Fans now spend more time crunching spreadsheets and worry about keeping their as of yet unassembled future dynasties together than look forward to adding major talent to their 30th place teams.

Can't see the forest for the trees.

Unless the cap magically disappears it has to be a factor moving forward
It may not be perfect but it is the system we are working under
You may live in a world where I want so who cares about things like cap hits but anybody doing a deal for him must think long term not just right now
That is how you end up with aging stars on immovable contracts

 

[Snip Genos]

Unless the cap magically disappears it has to be a factor moving forward
It may not be perfect but it is the system we are working under
You may live in a world where I want so who cares about things like cap hits but anybody doing a deal for him must think long term not just right now
That is how you end up with aging stars on immovable contracts

Yup, and so I beleive Stamkos will only come here if he really believes in this team future and wants to make the leafs a winning team. Shanny and company will make him an offer or 2 but won't be bothered too much if he wants more.

 

[TheCLAM]

Oh stop being so semantical.

The article uses comparables and historical rates to determine future production and contract value. Who cares what someone labels it. It gives us a good idea of his value.

There's no value added imo.

To you bolded point we all knew that intuitively lol

 

[Stephen]

Unless the cap magically disappears it has to be a factor moving forward
It may not be perfect but it is the system we are working under
You may live in a world where I want so who cares about things like cap hits but anybody doing a deal for him must think long term not just right now
That is how you end up with aging stars on immovable contracts

There's got to be a balance.

You can't worry about the possibility of losing your core until you've actually assembled one.

 

[Stephen]

There's no value added imo.

To you bolded point we all knew that intuitively lol

I agree. It's not like we were all twiddling our thumbs at what a two time 50 plus goal scorer in his prime is worth.