Stamkos Debate - PostDeadline 2016

[Stand Witness]

Hahahaha no they aren't. Last season ROR put up 17 goals and 55 points. Stamkos put up 43 goals and 72 points. When ROR got close to 30 goals in 2013-2014, Stammer put up 25...in 43 less games. This is frankly the only season ROR has been close to Stamkos

Also ROR hasn't been ternding upwards for three seasons. His production from 2013-2104 actually FELL through 2014-2015. Both is goal scoring and points. It's only jumped back up to the 2013-2014 level this year, which might have something to do with the prime minutes he's getting. ROR is a fantastic player but he's a 25 goal 65 point player.

And Stamkos production has fallen because of an injury lol. I'll bet on him getting to 70/80 levels than I ever would on ROR. In his past 14 games, he's basically back at a PPG putting up 13 points. Since Jan he's pushed his production up to 40 goal, 70 point territory again.

And the NHL has changed. Stamkos isn't going to be hitting 90 points regularily because NO ONE IS. That doesn't make him this ever worsening player, that means the production in the NHL is becoming something different. 70 points in elite, and player who can hit 40 goals and 80 points is something you go after. Maybe a handful of players in this league can do that, and Stamkos sure is one. ROR certainly isn't.

I'd have no problem betting that Stamkos will hit PPG levels again

Like I said, moving forward I would not be surprised if their production is within +/- 8 pts.

Stamkos isn't providing 2.5M more in production that ROR is. Call ROR overpaid if you want, but Stamkos isn't providing an insane production here.

Again, this has been proven wrong about goal scoring and production changing. This year about 7 players are projected to have over 80 pts, last season was 7 as well. The next couple season after that are closer to 9-10. It isn't drastic. Scoring really isn't that different, Stamkos has just gotten worse.

 

[Gary Nylund]

And he's still in a position to score the 3rd most goals in the league...

Seems more like league scoring trending down instead of Stamkos himself...

Let's at least try to be objective and not look at goals only (unless you want to make a case for assists as being irrelevant).

 

[Stand Witness]

And he's still in a position to score the 3rd most goals in the league...

Seems more like league scoring trending down instead of Stamkos himself...

Actually, no. It hasn't changed drastically.

EDIT
League scoring isn't down anything significant. That is less than 2 total goals per team. You could argue goal scoring is more spread out but scoring isn't down.

 

[Faltorvo]

I'd argue the lack of assists can be blamed more on the linemates the coach gives him.

Killorn, Callah don't exactly scream

"skilled offensive forward"

Stammer can only get them the puck, it's up to them to put it in.

 

[Stand Witness]

I'd argue the lack of assists can be blamed more on the linemates the coach gives him.

Killorn, Callah don't exactly scream

"skilled offensive forward"

Stammer can only get them the puck, it's up to them to put it in.

Stamkos actually plays with the 4th best quality of teammates and I believe his actually production w/ and w/out Kucherov has been posted before too.

 

[Faltorvo]

Actually, no. It hasn't changed drastically.

3309 goals for this season
3359 goals last season
3359 goals the season Stamkos scored 60.

League scoring isn't down anything significant. That is less than 2 total goals per team. You could argue goal scoring is more spread out but scoring isn't down.

2010/11 and 2015/16 have a gap of .12 per team, per game

,12 x 2(two teams) x 1230 (total league games played = 295 goals

that's almost enough to wipe out the combined totals of buffalo and Arizona combined last year.

so if you think that the loss of 2 entire NHLs franchises goal production is irrelevant, wellll then

No? don't like me using the bottom feeders? ok then, That drop is larger then any top teams total out put going back many years.

 

[Snow Dog]

Actually, no. It hasn't changed drastically.

3309 goals for this season
3359 goals last season
3359 goals the season Stamkos scored 60.

League scoring isn't down anything significant. That is less than 2 total goals per team. You could argue goal scoring is more spread out but scoring isn't down.

Why don't you check into the goals being spread out more?The top level players have trended down across the board,the lower players upward.
Or just maybe the coach is trying to turn Stamkos into more of a 2 way player than he was(even plays PK now).
Look at Yzerman,early in his carrer he was good for 100 Pts a season,once Bowman came onto the scene he averaged about 80 pts,but was a better player.
If the same thing is happening with Stamkos as did Yzerman we will be missing out on a player even better than he has been.

 

[Snow Dog]

I'd argue the lack of assists can be blamed more on the linemates the coach gives him.

Killorn, Callah don't exactly scream

"skilled offensive forward"

Stammer can only get them the puck, it's up to them to put it in.

I think Callahan had only 1 goal in his first 40 games.

 

[theIceWookie]

Like I said, moving forward I would not be surprised if their production is within +/- 8 pts.

Stamkos isn't providing 2.5M more in production that ROR is. Call ROR overpaid if you want, but Stamkos isn't providing an insane production here.

Again, this has been proven wrong about goal scoring and production changing. This year about 7 players are projected to have over 80 pts, last season was 7 as well. The next couple season after that are closer to 9-10. It isn't drastic. Scoring really isn't that different, Stamkos has just gotten worse.

It really is that different. I just showed you how ROR really only has one season where he can claim to be anywhere near Stamkos' production and it's this current one. He's also shooting above his career average by like 3 percent. It isn't huge but that's usually a red flag (he would have on 13/14 goals instead of 17. Not a huge difference but one nonetheless). He's also shooting at a lower rate than he used too, which is also a little bit of a red flag.

And scoring is that different. Stamkos was 2nd in goals last year (a little fact the "no sign stammers like to ignore), and only Ovie, Nash and himself were players who scored over 40 goals. He still very much could hit 3rd in the league this year. Which makes him among the leagues BEST goal producing players. And considering his team is a middling team offensively, maybe means that he's doing his best to get goals but his team isn't exactly doing much to help him, hurting his assist numbers.

I would be very surprised if ROR was able to be with 8 points of Stammer next season. Nothing suggest ROR is a 70 point player, where Stamkos has proven he is.

All this talk about Stamkos being on the decline and probably never reaching high levels of production is eerily reminiscent of the Ovie debate years ago. Two years of lower production, coaching issues, people claiming he was never going to be the same, four straight years of ever lessening production, and Ovie was also 26 and 27.

I'd suspect that a similar result will happen. And if we don't sign Stammer when we have the opportunity, people will whine and complain about it.

 

[Stand Witness]

2010/11 and 2015/16 have a gap of .12 per team, per game

,12 x 2(two teams) x 1230 (total league games played = 295 goals

that's almost enough to wipe out the combined totals of buffalo and Arizona combined last year.

so if you think that the loss of 2 entire NHLs franchises goal production is irrelevant, wellll then

No? don't like me using the bottom feeders? ok then, That drop is larger then any top teams total out put going back many years.

While my math wasn't right in the orginal post, yours isn't right either, or actually even close to making sense.

In 2014/2015 there was 6549 total goals. In 2011/2012 (Stamko's best goal scoring year), there was 6545 total goals scored. That change is insignificant. Goal scoring between those years is not down.

Between 2010/2011, there was a decrease in goal scoring, 6721 total goals scored. BUT this only averages to about 5.75 goals less per team. Again thought, the argument was around Stamkos' 60 goal season.

 

[Stand Witness]

Why don't you check into the goals being spread out more?The top level players have trended down across the board,the lower players upward.
Or just maybe the coach is trying to turn Stamkos into more of a 2 way player than he was(even plays PK now).
Look at Yzerman,early in his carrer he was good for 100 Pts a season,once Bowman came onto the scene he averaged about 80 pts,but was a better player.
If the same thing is happening with Stamkos as did Yzerman we will be missing out on a player even better than he has been.

Thing is, Stamkos isn't playing a better 2 way game. Just ask Tampa fans.

Along with that I also posted how many players were hitting the top 10 in scoring before. The drop really isn't that significant. The total amount of players scoring over 80 pts a season is relatively close.

 

[Stand Witness]

It really is that different. I just showed you how ROR really only has one season where he can claim to be anywhere near Stamkos' production and it's this current one. He's also shooting above his career average by like 3 percent. It isn't huge but that's usually a red flag (he would have on 13/14 goals instead of 17. Not a huge difference but one nonetheless). He's also shooting at a lower rate than he used too, which is also a little bit of a red flag.

And scoring is that different. Stamkos was 2nd in goals last year (a little fact the "no sign stammers like to ignore), and only Ovie, Nash and himself were players who scored over 40 goals. He still very much could hit 3rd in the league this year. Which makes him among the leagues BEST goal producing players. And considering his team is a middling team offensively, maybe means that he's doing his best to get goals but his team isn't exactly doing much to help him, hurting his assist numbers.

I would be very surprised if ROR was able to be with 8 points of Stammer next season. Nothing suggest ROR is a 70 point player, where Stamkos has proven he is.

All this talk about Stamkos being on the decline and probably never reaching high levels of production is eerily reminiscent of the Ovie debate years ago. Two years of lower production, coaching issues, people claiming he was never going to be the same, four straight years of ever lessening production, and Ovie was also 26 and 27.

I'd suspect that a similar result will happen. And if we don't sign Stammer when we have the opportunity, people will whine and complain about it.

I am not going to bother replying to you anymore. You are ignoring the facts and the numbers. Stamkos is scoring less, Stamkos is producing less, and league scoring (since his 60 goal season) is not declining (or not drastically).

ROR and Stamkos are likely going to be producing within 8 pts of each other. Stamkos is going to hit the 60's in points this season (same as ROR) and he hit 70 last season. Expecting anything more than 70 points out of Stamkos isn't smart thinking at this point.

If you are willing to overpay Stamkos (north of 10M) than thats fine, but that is going to be one ugly contract and you are going to be paying him of past production.

Also Stamkos is at 2 seasons now of shooting at 16%. 152 games and over 400 shots is a large enough sample size to predict him to continue at 16%. He isn't as good of a shooter anymore.

ROR is shooting at 13%, slightly lower than 14% in his 28 goal season but slightly more than 10% in last season. It would be hard to safely predict what he will be scoring like going forward but a 13% shooting % is not a crazy/unsustainable shooting % for a top line producing player.

 

[Daisy Jane]

I'd suspect that a similar result will happen. And if we don't sign Stammer when we have the opportunity, people will whine and complain about it.

lol well it does take two to tango. the leafs could want to but if he says no we can't really whine and compl... sorry i couldn't complete that sentence with a straight face.

 

[theIceWookie]

I am not going to bother replying to you anymore. You are ignoring the facts and the numbers. Stamkos is scoring less, Stamkos is producing less, and league scoring (since his 60 goal season) is not declining (or not drastically).

ROR and Stamkos are likely going to be producing within 8 pts of each other. Stamkos is going to hit the 60's in points this season (same as ROR) and he hit 70 last season. Expecting anything more than 70 points out of Stamkos isn't smart thinking at this point.

If you are willing to overpay Stamkos (north of 10M) than thats fine, but that is going to be one ugly contract and you are going to be paying him of past production.

League scoring as a whole might not have changed since that 60 goal season but the distribution of those points sure as hell has.

In 2010-2011 there were 5 players who scored over 90 points, there were 24 who scored over 70 points, 49 who scored over 60 points. In the year Stamkos scored 60, there were 3 players over 90 points, 21 over 70 points, and 58 players who scored 60 or more points. Four players scored over 40 goals, and thirty scored over 30.

In 2013-2014 there was one player who scored over 90 points, 18 who scored over 70, and 49 who scored over 60. And only 21 scored 30 or more goals. Last season no one scored over 90 points, 19 scored over 70, and 53 scored over 60. And only 15 scored 30 or more goals.

You don't see a trend there? Overall production is staying the same but top end production isn't as high as it used to be, a 2nd line player who scores 60 points is a rarity nowadays and 30 goal scorers (let alone 40 goal scorers) are become few and far between.

Also Stamkos is at 2 seasons now of shooting at 16%. 152 games and over 400 shots is a large enough sample size to predict him to continue at 16%. He isn't as good of a shooter anymore.

ROR is shooting at 13%, slightly lower than 14% in his 28 goal season but slightly more than 10% in last season. It would be hard to safely predict what he will be scoring like going forward but a 13% shooting % is not a crazy/unsustainable shooting % for a top line producing player.

He's shooting 16 percent this season. That's typically elite level shooting. At his average pace of 3 shots a game, that's still 42 goals a season. But yeah, he isn't that good of a shooter anymore. That also happens to be his lowest total since his rookie year. If you're open to the possibility of ROR getting better as a shooter, you have to be open to Stamkos being able to push his up as well...

Also since Jan 1st, ROR has played 21 games and shot 36 times (which isn't great, stamkos has actually improved his shooting percentage during that time to 17 percent FYI) and scored 2 goals. That's not great...but even if he produced at above his career average (because you're right 13 percent isn't a huge difference from 10), he's only getting 22 goals at his career average in shots.

 

[theIceWookie]

lol well it does take two to tango. the leafs could want to but if he says no we can't really whine and compl... sorry i couldn't complete that sentence with a straight face.

Haha well that is a fair comment. I just sort of assume he wants to be here

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm ignoring facts and numbers? I don't think so. I've put forth facts that contradict some of you're statements and you haven't bothered to respond to them. No response to my ROR comments. You keep changing the paradigms of the arguments. You refuse to talk about accomplishments that very much show Stamkos is still the elite scorer many of us think he is (goal scoring etc).

League scoring as a whole might not have changed since that 60 goal season but the distribution of those points sure as hell has.

In 2010-2011 there were 5 players who scored over 90 points, there were 24 who scored over 70 points, 49 who scored over 60 points. In the year Stamkos scored 60, there were 3 players over 90 points, 21 over 70 points, and 58 players who scored 60 or more points. Four players scored over 40 goals, and thirty scored over 30.

In 2013-2014 there was one player who scored over 90 points, 18 who scored over 70, and 49 who scored over 60. And only 21 scored 30 or more goals. Last season no one scored over 90 points, 19 scored over 70, and 53 scored over 60. And only 15 scored 30 or more goals.

You don't see a trend there? Overall production is staying the same but top end production isn't as high as it used to be, a 2nd line player who scores 60 points is a rarity nowadays and 30 goal scorers (let alone 40 goal scorers) are become few and far between.

Do you have an explanation for what is causing this trend? Could it be that top end players just aren't as "top end" today as they used to be?

 

[Jerkini]

ROR is not exactly a one-year wonder, and there's absolutely nothing pointing towards him regressing whereas with Clarkson pretty much everything did.

Clarkson was a mistake of not looking at the complete picture. The complete picture with ROR is very positive.

ROR is a 50-point player. $7.5m

 

[Pookie]

Why don't you check into the goals being spread out more?The top level players have trended down across the board,the lower players upward.
Or just maybe the coach is trying to turn Stamkos into more of a 2 way player than he was(even plays PK now).
Look at Yzerman,early in his carrer he was good for 100 Pts a season,once Bowman came onto the scene he averaged about 80 pts,but was a better player.
If the same thing is happening with Stamkos as did Yzerman we will be missing out on a player even better than he has been.

So if top level players are trending down... which would be a strange hypothesis to prove as young talent is on the upside while older talent is on the downside... why would the Leafs pay the most expensive price in the league for one?

 

[theIceWookie]

Do you have an explanation for what is causing this trend? Could it be that top end players just aren't as "top end" today as they used to be?

Probably has to do more with coaches running more even lines, and liking to spread out the offense more. They give top lines less time overall, preferring to give lines two and three more time. It makes them deeper and also helps the top players be more rested in the playoffs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Probably has to do more with coaches running more even lines, and liking to spread out the offense more. They give top lines less time overall, preferring to give lines two and three more time. It makes them deeper and also helps the top players be more rested in the playoffs.

Hmm, that's interesting. I'd be interested in seeing some numbers that back this up, if it's true that might help explain things (at least to some extene).

I'm genuinely curious, I don't have the time or the inclination to spend a lot of time digging but I had a quick look at the season where Stamkos scored 61, take away the seasons that Stamkos and Malkin had and the numbers for the top scorers don't look much different than they did last season so I was thinking, a 29 year old Malkin may not be the force he once was, and if Stamkos has regressed a notch due to injury, coaching or whatever else, that would explain that but there's nothing to stop someone from scoring like that again because it's not like the game has fundamentally changed since then.

I went back one more year, 5 guys with 90+ points, Stamkos again, the Sedin's who have obviously regressed due to age, St. Louis who is retired and then Perry. Again, that would seem to support that there's no reason top-end stars can't score at the rates they used to, they just aren't as "top end" as they used to be. But maybe it's partly due to ice-time like you said, I really don't know.

Just thinking out loud, don't really have a strong opinion either way here.

 

[LeafFever]

ROR is a 50-point player. $7.5m

Aside from him as well, that Kane/Bogosian trade is looking ugly.
The Sabres have to watch how much their spending. Their young players will need to be signed.
I do think they have and will continue to try to rush the rebuild.

 

[dirk41]

ROR is a 50-point player. $7.5m

Are you going to act like he hasn't scored more than 50 three times (soon to be four)?

Over the last five seasons, he's averaged 60.2points/82 games.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Stamkos isn't declining.
He was their best player last year.
Tampa Bay is a stacked team !

 

[Stand Witness]

Stamkos isn't declining.
He was their best player last year.
Tampa Bay is a stacked team !

So he isn't worth 10M+ then right?

Sounds like what I was arguing the whole time. Don't pay him for his massive years (what some people want to do) and pay him for what he is doing now (eg. Less than or = to 10M)

Although this WAR/GAR stuff isn't really done that well. As someone mentioned in your other thread, Bergeron's faceoff ability alone was more valuable than Gardiner alone.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

GAR over last 3 years.

Steven Stamkos CR T.B 20122013 0.43 0.34 0.18 3.93 1.10 8.04 0 14.02
Steven Stamkos CR T.B 20132014 0.46 0.56 0.29 6.17 0.53 9.55 0 17.56
Steven Stamkos CR T.B 20142015 0.37 1.01 1.74 7.88 -1.08 9.21 0 19.13

=50.71 / 3 = 16.9 GAR average
=16.9 / 6.16 = 2.74 WAR
= 2.74 * 2.8 + 0.575 = 8.25 PER

Exactly what TB offered him !