Stamkos Debate - PostDeadline 2016

[indigobuffalo]

Friedman was speculating that Yzerman's offer to Stamkos "started with an '8'..." so I would imagine that means $80-89M range, and assuming 8-years, would be a cap hit between $10M to $11.125M.

I'm going out on a limb but just assuming he didn't mean $8M to $8.9M per season AAV.

Click to read more...

 

[Gary Nylund]

You know pretty much every top player's scoring has been on the decline though. Was a pretty serious injury he suffered as well.

I don't think it's Stammer. I just think the league, team defence and NHL goalies are tougher to put pucks passed.

He is still Steven Stamkos know what I mean? He is in his his prime years and the guy didn't just forget how to score. Him ripping it up of late is nice re-assurance though.

I actually posted what I feel to be the issue. Unless you missed it. And how do you know that he isn't playing as well. Do you watching Lightning games on the regular? Or just the stat sheet this season.

He scored 43 goals last year btw.

So the issue is that scoring is down across the league? Seriously? When a perennial top 3 scorer drops to the fringes of the top 20, it means that his scoring is down a helluva lot more than other top scorers.

Yes, Stamkos is still a very good goal scorer, maybe not top 3 but top 10 or even top 5 if you like for the purposes of this discussion. But he's not close to top 10 in anything else and there's a lot more to player evaluation than counting goals so I don't see how making him the highest player in the league can be anything but an over-payment.

Toronto sports teams have been in the dumpster for a long time, but the city does a great job developing elite talent. I think when athletes see the response to the Raptors success and the love Kyle Lowry gets, or the role Josh Donaldson is playing for the Toronto Blue Jays, or the electricity David Price brought to the city, why would you not want to dive head first into that kind of upward mobility on the Toronto Maple Leafs and be the king of it all? Just look at the way Connor McDavid talks about Toronto Maple Leafs and the ACC... The Leafs are in good hands, maybe the best hands in the entire game, for the first time in generations. Why would you not want to join something and have your legacy eclipse guys like Gilmour/Sundin/Clark all in front of your friends and family?

I'd want to join that.

Absolutely! None of us knows what he is thinking but if he is thinking along those lines then it's an enormous factor and something all the money in the world can't buy.

This guy gets it.

I don't follow Basketball but didn't James leave the Tax haven of Florida rather quickly to go back to Ohio?

Excellent point IMO. If James wants to make the most money, no way he goes to Ohio. If James wants titles, no way he goes to Ohio. Yet ... he goes to Ohio anyway. The Leafs also have cache baby that the Cavs can only dream about.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Stamkos would be way more marketable as a Leaf. Despite that, Stamkos won't take less to be a Leaf, because he doesn't want to make up for the difference in money through endorsements. He wants to be paid market value through his NHL salary, for two reasons.

One, because no one likes to be paid in uncertain hypotheticals or bonuses. Two, because he will be under union pressure to get fair value for every other player's benefit.

Even so, he will get paid anywhere, regardless. It's more about how much he balances being the hometown hero vs. how much he wants to win now.

I don't think this is a factor like it used to be (if at all). The teams with money spend to the cap, the teams that don't have an internal budget. The effect of stars like Stamkos and whoever else making say 13m instead of 11m as far as I can tell is that there's just that much less to go around for lesser players and it's the "average" player that suffers and maybe loses his job to someone making the minimum (or accepts the minimum himself). Don't really see that resulting in a ton of peer pressure to squeeze out every last dollar that he can.

 

[Stephen]

Let's not forget, this Stamkos drama really started in 2014 when he liked that LeBron of Toronto article. And look at where the situation is now. Last place and likely to pick first overall like the Cavs, a Kyrie Irving in the making in Marner/Nylander/Rielly, and a superstar with the option of leaving Florida to head home. Let's just hope we keep Andrew Wiggins (Auston Matthews) instead of trading him.

 

[BayStreetBully]

I don't think this is a factor like it used to be (if at all). The teams with money spend to the cap, the teams that don't have an internal budget. The effect of stars like Stamkos and whoever else making say 13m instead of 11m as far as I can tell is that there's just that much less to go around for lesser players and it's the "average" player that suffers and maybe loses his job to someone making the minimum (or accepts the minimum himself). Don't really see that resulting in a ton of peer pressure to squeeze out every last dollar that he can.

That's a good point. I'm sure everyone is aware that the salary cap makes a team's payroll a zero sum game, but at the very least, his superstar peers around the league wouldn't appreciate it.

And I still don't think Stamkos is willing to take less salary just because he can make more in endorsements. Endorsements are unknowns at the time of his UFA, and it puts the burden on him/his agent to create these endorsements, of which the most lucrative of deals might not even happen until he does something spectacular for the Leafs. And that could take years.

Who wouldn't want the highest guaranteed salary possible, from the start?

 

[Stephen]

That's a good point. I'm sure everyone is aware that the salary cap makes a team's payroll a zero sum game, but at the very least, his superstar peers around the league wouldn't appreciate it.

And I still don't think Stamkos is willing to take less salary just because he can make more in endorsements. Endorsements are unknowns at the time of his UFA, and it puts the burden on him/his agent to create these endorsements, of which the most lucrative of deals might not even happen until he does something spectacular for the Leafs. And that could take years.

Who wouldn't want the highest guaranteed salary possible, from the start?

Agreed. That's why the tax argument in Florida makes no sense. Why sign for a lower dollar amount when you can't guarantee you'll be in the state of Florida for the full term?

 

[gravyface]

My concern with Stamkos is what he does to our roster now and 3-4 years from now, when we want to lock up our kids and we have a 30 year old center on the decline with a boat anchor of a contract hanging over us for another 3+ years.

If we draft Matthews, I really can't see Stamkos as being a fit here: three very good young centers in the fold, not to mention Bozak and Kadri that would need to be moved.

 

[Swervin81]

SExcellent point IMO. If James wants to make the most money, no way he goes to Ohio. If James wants titles, no way he goes to Ohio. Yet ... he goes to Ohio anyway. The Leafs also have cache baby that the Cavs can only dream about.

And there's a good reason for it. It's because LeBron is a power hungry egomaniac. Dan Gilbert basically sold his soul to get LeBron back to the Cavs, and basically gave LeBron the keys to the organization. Like, look at some of the things they have done:

1. Trading for Kevin Love. It seemed like a pretty obvious common sense move, but LeBron relly was known to want to play with Love badly.

2. The Cavs wanted to hire a coach and had to choose between David Blatt and Tyronn Lue, well known as LeBron's buddy, to coach. They went with Blatt. Note that this was before LeBron came. When LeBron came, his buddy, Tyronn Lue, was soon after signed to be an assistant coach and was given the highest salary for an assistant coach in NBA history, even though he was never that highly touted around the league. Yeah, LeBron definitely had nothing to do with that...

3. Throughout the season, they play a really stagnant system that consists of basically LeBron ISO after LeBron ISO after LeBron ISO and the ball stopped at LeBron when he was up top. Under a coach like David Blatt who was well known and really well praised for his motion offense that promoted teamwork and ball movement, as well as lots of screens, player movement, and open catch and shoot opportunities. You know, something similar to what a dynasty like the Spurs or one of the best teams in history like the Warriors are running. Instead, they were running a system only to cater to LeBron's desire to pad his own stats first. Hell, in the finals, LeBron had triple double after triple double after triple double, but was woefully inefficient from the floor.

4. During last offseason, Tristan Thompson was given an absolutely absurd contract of 5 yrs and $82M after a really long standoff that even resulted in thompson missing camp due to the hold out, for a guy who can only do 2 things at all well - rebound, and defend the pick and roll. Otherwise, he is useless. Why? Tristan Thompson's agent is Rich Paul. Guess who else is also friends with and a client of his? LeBron. And as we established earlier, Gilbert has no choice, since LeBron has him by the balls and is only signing repeating one year deals, so he could always just threaten to leave after the season.

5. The Cavs, after having the 3rd/4th best record in the NBA at 30-11 and the best record in the east... inexplicably fire David Blatt, even though the Cavs overachieved after a slew of injuries in the playoffs to a finals appearance under him the previous year and as I said, had the best record in the conference this year. Not to mention that LeBron was widely known to have some friction towards Blatt. Guess who they hired as new HC? Yep, LeBron's buddy, Ty Lue, and guess what? Literally nothing has changed. The Cavs are still playing the exact same way as they did before firing Blatt. Despite the fact that Lue said they would be running at a higher pace. Oh, and guess what? Lue had the most obviously staged presser ever after his first game where he half heartedly called the big 3 out, to give off the illusion of accountability.

Besides... think about it. LeBron didn't go back to be a hometown hero. He went back so he could have control of a team and him being able to spin it PR wise into a hometown hero coming home was just a cherry on top from a PR perspective. He could never have that with Miami, Pat Riley wouldn't stand for that **** and had the clout to put LeBron in his place as the president. If Gilbert doesn't basically let LeBron run the show, he's still in Miami.

This is not the same situation as Stamkos. Stamkos would actually be coming home because he sincerely wants to come home, and not because of some screwed up, unprecedented power dynamic. And I'm a guy who has been on the avoid Stamkos train.

 

[Gary Nylund]

And there's a good reason for it. It's because LeBron is a power hungry egomaniac. Dan Gilbert basically sold his soul to get LeBron back to the Cavs, and basically gave LeBron the keys to the organization. Like, look at some of the things they have done:

1. Trading for Kevin Love. It seemed like a pretty obvious common sense move, but LeBron relly was known to want to play with Love badly.

2. The Cavs wanted to hire a coach and had to choose between David Blatt and Tyronn Lue, well known as LeBron's buddy, to coach. They went with Blatt. Note that this was before LeBron came. When LeBron came, his buddy, Tyronn Lue, was soon after signed to be an assistant coach and was given the highest salary for an assistant coach in NBA history, even though he was never that highly touted around the league. Yeah, LeBron definitely had nothing to do with that...

3. Throughout the season, they play a really stagnant system that consists of basically LeBron ISO after LeBron ISO after LeBron ISO and the ball stopped at LeBron when he was up top. Under a coach like David Blatt who was well known and really well praised for his motion offense that promoted teamwork and ball movement, as well as lots of screens, player movement, and open catch and shoot opportunities. You know, something similar to what a dynasty like the Spurs or one of the best teams in history like the Warriors are running. Instead, they were running a system only to cater to LeBron's desire to pad his own stats first. Hell, in the finals, LeBron had triple double after triple double after triple double, but was woefully inefficient from the floor.

4. During last offseason, Tristan Thompson was given an absolutely absurd contract of 5 yrs and $82M after a really long standoff that even resulted in thompson missing camp due to the hold out, for a guy who can only do 2 things at all well - rebound, and defend the pick and roll. Otherwise, he is useless. Why? Tristan Thompson's agent is Rich Paul. Guess who else is also friends with and a client of his? LeBron. And as we established earlier, Gilbert has no choice, since LeBron has him by the balls and is only signing repeating one year deals, so he could always just threaten to leave after the season.

5. The Cavs, after having the 3rd/4th best record in the NBA at 30-11 and the best record in the east... inexplicably fire David Blatt, even though the Cavs overachieved after a slew of injuries in the playoffs to a finals appearance under him the previous year and as I said, had the best record in the conference this year. Not to mention that LeBron was widely known to have some friction towards Blatt. Guess who they hired as new HC? Yep, LeBron's buddy, Ty Lue, and guess what? Literally nothing has changed. The Cavs are still playing the exact same way as they did before firing Blatt. Despite the fact that Lue said they would be running at a higher pace. Oh, and guess what? Lue had the most obviously staged presser ever after his first game where he half heartedly called the big 3 out, to give off the illusion of accountability.

Besides... think about it. LeBron didn't go back to be a hometown hero. He went back so he could have control of a team and him being able to spin it PR wise into a hometown hero coming home was just a cherry on top from a PR perspective. He could never have that with Miami, Pat Riley wouldn't stand for that **** and had the clout to put LeBron in his place as the president. If Gilbert doesn't basically let LeBron run the show, he's still in Miami.

This is not the same situation as Stamkos. Stamkos would actually be coming home because he sincerely wants to come home, and not because of some screwed up, unprecedented power dynamic. And I'm a guy who has been on the avoid Stamkos train.

I'm sure there would have been other owners willing to sell their soul for Lebron and therefore, not sure that cherry on top is worth being in Cleveland as opposed to say NY. I agree Lebron's a bad GM though.

 

[McMatthews]

I'm sure there would have been other owners willing to sell their soul for Lebron and therefore, not sure that cherry on top is worth being in Cleveland as opposed to say NY. I agree Lebron's a bad GM though.

Every owner in the NBA would have handed over complete control to LeBron.

I don't buy it.

LeBron went home because he is extremely proud of his hometown.

 

[HellasLEAF]

So the issue is that scoring is down across the league? Seriously? When a perennial top 3 scorer drops to the fringes of the top 20, it means that his scoring is down a helluva lot more than other top scorers.

I said that was part of what might be the reason for a dip in his stats. Not 'the' reason. I'm sure there are many factors.

His stats have really only dipped for a period of one season. His ppg and goals are always high.

I just think a 27 year old fit Stamkos, who historically plays full seasons scoring over 40 goals is someone I'm none too worried about regressing. I just think he'd be a great fit with the young players.

People talk like Stamkos and Mathews in one summer like it's a problem. We've clearly become drunk on blue chippers now after having none for years.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Every owner in the NBA would have handed over complete control to LeBron.

I don't buy it.

LeBron went home because he is extremely proud of his hometown.

If that were true he wouldn't have left to begin with. He's an egomaniac who was looking for attention. And what better way to get it, by dramatically returning home as a hero. A place just years before where fans were burning his jerseys. This is all about him, not the city. Just like Jordan, people are willing to turn a blind eye to how big of an ******* these guys really are.

 

[kk87]

I'm not sure who Stamkos was playing with when he was at wing, but he's played with some mediocre linemates like Callahan and Killorn recently. Maybe it's true that he needs really good linemates to be effective, but so what? We would be able to give him plenty of options as the highly touted forwards we have in the system continue progressing.

 

[McMatthews]

If that were true he wouldn't have left to begin with. He's an egomaniac who was looking for attention. And what better way to get it, by dramatically returning home as a hero. A place just years before where fans were burning his jerseys. This is all about him, not the city. Just like Jordan, people are willing to turn a blind eye to how big of an ******* these guys really are.

I will never understand this mentality.

Have you never transferred from one job to another? I have.

LeBron had every right to go to Miami and every right to return home.

 

[Pookie]

Can stop the silliness regarding the mythical "Goals Down Across the League" ?

Here are the facts:

Minuscule decline and pretty consistent scoring league wide since he got in the NHL. In fact, today's numbers are better than 2001-2004 and in the latter 90's.

0.03 Goals per game is about 37 total goals less in a season… out of 1230 games played. Or 1 every 33+ games.


Myth busted.

 

[Ovate]

Can stop the silliness regarding the mythical "Goals Down Across the League" ?

Here are the facts:

Minuscule decline and pretty consistent scoring league wide since he got in the NHL. In fact, today's numbers are better than 2001-2004 and in the latter 90's.

0.03 Goals per game is about 37 total goals less in a season… out of 1230 games played. Or 1 every 33+ games.


Myth busted.

Oversimplified to the point of uselessness.

Goals are down considerably among the leagues top scorers. Coaches are mixing their best players into their 2nd and 3rd lines, which reduces the production of the very good players who were formerly paired with other very good players on the top lines. 4th liners are also getting played more minute, which cuts into the ice time of everyone else.

It's not that the average goals scored is dropping, it's that the variance is dropping, making seasons of 60/70/80+ points much more impressive than they were in the past.

 

[Daisy Jane]

I will never understand this mentality.

Have you never transferred from one job to another? I have.

LeBron had every right to go to Miami and every right to return home.

he wasn't traded.
he chose to go chase a championship. (which - is his right) - but fan-dom wise you don't have to like it or accept it. maybe if he was there - they could have done better (i don't really follow basketball, so I dunno).

and he came back (going by what Swerv said) - not because he had a burning desire to come home - but he could have more control and what he says goes. - it's like a win win. he can come back home-town-hero-like - and he gets his own way. but if he didn't get his own way, would he have gone back home. (again, reading what Swerv said - maybe not?)

 

[Stephen]

Also, the math looks wrong there. There's 1230 total NHL games played, but the 2.69 goals per game looks low. Is that per team totals?

 

[81Leafs50]

So the issue is that scoring is down across the league? Seriously? When a perennial top 3 scorer drops to the fringes of the top 20, it means that his scoring is down a helluva lot more than other top scorers.

Yes, Stamkos is still a very good goal scorer, maybe not top 3 but top 10 or even top 5 if you like for the purposes of this discussion. But he's not close to top 10 in anything else and there's a lot more to player evaluation than counting goals so I don't see how making him the highest player in the league can be anything but an over-payment.



Absolutely! None of us knows what he is thinking but if he is thinking along those lines then it's an enormous factor and something all the money in the world can't buy.



Excellent point IMO. If James wants to make the most money, no way he goes to Ohio. If James wants titles, no way he goes to Ohio. Yet ... he goes to Ohio anyway. The Leafs also have cache baby that the Cavs can only dream about.

When talking about scoring you need to keep it in perspective.

Stamkos is not a 50 goal scorer. The years that he did, his teamates put it on a tee for him. Empty net opportunities were passed up and given to Stamkos. The one timer on the PP was set up up for him too.

Either way he is ELITE and he is a great leader. $10.5 mill would get him signed to 8 years. Leafs will pay it. The cap is going down and Lightning have $20 mill to work with and 6 RFA's and 2 UFA's (that includes Stamkos) to sign.

It's a no brainer he becomes a Leaf.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

I will never understand this mentality.

Have you never transferred from one job to another? I have.

LeBron had every right to go to Miami and every right to return home.

Did you have an ESPN dedicate time to your decision? It's not a mentality, it's reality. He handled the entire thing like a goof. It's as Kanye West were his advisor.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Also, the math looks wrong there. There's 1230 total NHL games played, but the 2.69 goals per game looks low. Is that per team totals?

No just Stamkos.

 

[slozo]

When talking about scoring you need to keep it in perspective.

Stamkos is not a 50 goal scorer. The years that he did, his teamates put it on a tee for him. Empty net opportunities were passed up and given to Stamkos. The one timer on the PP was set up up for him too.

Either way he is ELITE and he is a great leader. $10.5 mill would get him signed to 8 years. Leafs will pay it. The cap is going down and Lightning have $20 mill to work with and 6 RFA's and 2 UFA's (that includes Stamkos) to sign.

It's a no brainer he becomes a Leaf.

Stamkos is not a 50 goal scorer? Yikes.

Going into the semantics of this . . . he was a 50 goal scorer (and a 60 goal scorer), so . . . he is a 50 goal scorer. Is a 50 goal scorer right now? Doesn't look like he'll get there this year, so probably not this year. But to write him off at this age, saying he'll never score 50 again is . . . I think it's ludicrous.

Just as your assertion is that his teammates put it on a tee for him. Seriously.

Your talking about empty net goals and one-timer set ups on the pp? You might as well talk about any great goal scoring superstar then . . . are they all frauds because they earned the right to be on the ice in the last minute in a one goal game, or to be the point man on the power play because they have a fantastic shot skill set?!? Give yer head a shake.

And yet you say he's elite . . . which I agree with, but which seems to contradict your earlier statement.

About being a no-brainer becoming a Leaf . . . I still think it's very much unknown at this point where he goes. Really doesn't look like TB, that much is clear - but Toronto being his hometown and having that much more of a magnifying glass on him could be just as much a detriment as a plus. I could easily see him going to the Rangers, Islanders, Jersey, Philly, even Florida, etc. You just never know where his head is at until he signs.

 

[McMatthews]

Did you have an ESPN dedicate time to your decision? It's not a mentality, it's reality. He handled the entire thing like a goof. It's as Kanye West were his advisor.

LeBron's athletic ability warrants every second of attention he's received.

You guys talk as if he's Johnny Manziel or Tim Tebow.

LeBron is one of the all-time greats and he happened to be the best during the social media age.

I don't understand the criticism for his decision to choose where he wanted to play and live.

 

[Stephen]

LeBron's cheesy but that's also NBA culture for you.

 

[ACC1224]

Did you have an ESPN dedicate time to your decision? It's not a mentality, it's reality. He handled the entire thing like a goof. It's as Kanye West were his advisor.

More importantly, who was his Tax advisor?
He was obviously unaware of the haven he was leaving.