Stamkos Debate - PostDeadline 2016

[Damisoph]

Not that ridiculous because most, if not all of the positives to coming to Toronto also apply to Buffalo too except for one big thing which is generally the motive besides the move which is he would be doing this to come home.

well no offense to Buffalites (Buffalonians?) but not living in Buffalo could be chalked up as a positive. Also, Bylsma vs. Babcock.

Saying that, Pegula is not afraid to spend insane amounts of $$ so we'll see.

 

[Stand Witness]

well no offense to Buffalites (Buffalonians?) but not living in Buffalo could be chalked up as a positive. Also, Bylsma vs. Babcock.

Saying that, Pegula is not afraid to spend insane amounts of $$ so we'll see.

Babcock > Bylsma but I think the core of Buffalo >> than the core of Toronto.

That can all change come draft day though and if we get Matthews it would be easy to see these teams on par or at least a lot closer than before

 

[LeafFever]

Babcock > Bylsma but I think the core of Buffalo >> than the core of Toronto.

That can all change come draft day though and if we get Matthews it would be easy to see these teams on par or at least a lot closer than before

Buffalo is also rushing their rebuild. If they add another big UFA, they'll already be in cap trouble in the future.

 

[Mess]

Dreams are fine. Eventually one wakes up though and the reality of a guaranteed +$80m contract comes to consciousness for both the player and the team chasing him

Agreed.

Laws of supply and demand economics apply.

The more teams that drop out of the Stamkos race the better the situation becomes for the Leafs to successfully land him.

 

[LeafFever]

I agree. It's like these media types have these great fluid, verbal skills, but are missing the logical and deductive reasoning skills.

Stamkos going to Buffalo, and not Toronto, is another silly hypothesis.

If you really break it down, the reasons they give for Stamkos going to other teams is ridiculous. A lot of the media claims he'd go to Vancouver. The biggest WTF there is. No connection to anyone in the organization and it's farther from winning than the Leafs.
It seems the "Winning" notion comes up for Toronto but not other teams.
In Buffalo BTW Stamkos would never play centre again. Never brought up by the media.
And yes Detroit is another one making no sense.

 

[Stand Witness]

Buffalo is also rushing their rebuild. If they add another big UFA, they'll already be in cap trouble in the future.

I wouldn't call it rushing at all. They have 2 #1C's for the future (ROR, Eichel, ROR likely shifts to W), Reinhart as the future #2C, Ristolanen as their #1D, Bogosian in the top 4. They have to fill in the blanks but the biggest holes are all covered. Lehner is still a question mark though.

 

[Jerkini]

I wouldn't call it rushing at all. They have 2 #1C's for the future (ROR, Eichel, ROR likely shifts to W), Reinhart as the future #2C, Ristolanen as their #1D, Bogosian in the top 4. They have to fill in the blanks but the biggest holes are all covered. Lehner is still a question mark though.

Ryan O'Reilly is actually a great example why it's ludicrous to think Stamkos takes anything less than $10m.

A one-time 64-point player, perennial 20-goal scorer with a $7.5m cap-hit. One-year younger. Was never a free agent.

 

[Stand Witness]

Ryan O'Reilly is actually a great example why it's ludicrous to think Stamkos takes anything less than $10m.

A one-time 64-point player, perennial 20-goal scorer with a $7.5m cap-hit. One-year younger. Was never a free agent.

Actually, quite the opposite. ROR is actually outproducing Stamkos when it comes to points and ROR is known as a 2way player. ROR is on a 68 pt pace, Stamkos 64 pt. I honestly believe their production is going to be within +/- 8 pts of eachother for the next while.

People want to pay Stamkos on what he has done in the past and not what he is doing right now.

It was also essentially a UFA contract he signed. He wasn't going to take anything less and would have just become a FA.

 

[Jerkini]

Actually, quite the opposite. ROR is actually outproducing Stamkos when it comes to points and ROR is known as a 2way player. ROR is on a 68 pt pace, Stamkos 64 pt. I honestly believe their production is going to be within +/- 8 pts of eachother for the next while.

People want to pay Stamkos on what he has done in the past and not what he is doing right now.

You know what happens when you pay players based on one-year. You get stuck with the David Clarkson's and Jason Blake's of the world.

It was also essentially a UFA contract he signed. He wasn't going to take anything less and would have just become a FA.

Of course it was.

 

[LeafFever]

I wouldn't call it rushing at all. They have 2 #1C's for the future (ROR, Eichel, ROR likely shifts to W), Reinhart as the future #2C, Ristolanen as their #1D, Bogosian in the top 4. They have to fill in the blanks but the biggest holes are all covered. Lehner is still a question mark though.

Buffalo seems to be able to make these moves. If Toronto entertains signing a UFA it's rushing the rebuild.
Buffalo has to sign all their young players. If they keep adding expensive players they'll run into serious cap trouble.

 

[Nithoniniel]

You know what happens when you pay players based on one-year. You get stuck with the David Clarkson's and Jason Blake's of the world.

ROR is not exactly a one-year wonder, and there's absolutely nothing pointing towards him regressing whereas with Clarkson pretty much everything did.

Clarkson was a mistake of not looking at the complete picture. The complete picture with ROR is very positive.

 

[theIceWookie]

Actually, quite the opposite. ROR is actually outproducing Stamkos when it comes to points and ROR is known as a 2way player. ROR is on a 68 pt pace, Stamkos 64 pt. I honestly believe their production is going to be within +/- 8 pts of eachother for the next while.

People want to pay Stamkos on what he has done in the past and not what he is doing right now.

It was also essentially a UFA contract he signed. He wasn't going to take anything less and would have just become a FA.

Logically it makes more sense to assumer that Stamkos is more likely to produce at levels closer to his career average, than one season. Hence why people are willing to pay Stamkos that money. Especially when you consider how Tampa struggled at the start of the year, and then throw in Stammer having the whole contract status over his head, I wouldn't exactly consider this year "the norm".

Also I find it funny how people are so willing to think that Stamkos is just going to fall off offensively, yet then compare him to other players like ROR who are older and showing new heights of production.

 

[Stand Witness]

You know what happens when you pay players based on one-year. You get stuck with the David Clarkson's and Jason Blake's of the world.



Of course it was.

Notice how ROR has been trending upwards every year and Stamkos has been trending downwards? Ya, dont pay players based on what they did 5-6 years ago. Don't pay Stamkos for his 100, 90, even 80 pt seasons because he isn't that player anymore.

And you sure as hell knew what I was talking about so don't make it sound like I was basing it off of 1 year.

 

[Bullseye]

well no offense to Buffalites (Buffalonians?) but not living in Buffalo could be chalked up as a positive. Also, Bylsma vs. Babcock.

The Buffalo area is beautiful. The countryside to the south is spectacular. Great restaurants. Great people. I don't living downtown is the target.

 

[Stand Witness]

Logically it makes more sense to assumer that Stamkos is more likely to produce at levels closer to his career average, than one season. Hence why people are willing to pay Stamkos that money. Especially when you consider how Tampa struggled at the start of the year, and then throw in Stammer having the whole contract status over his head, I wouldn't exactly consider this year "the norm".

Also I find it funny how people are so willing to think that Stamkos is just going to fall off offensively, yet then compare him to other players like ROR who are older and showing new heights of production.

It hasn't been one year, or even two years. I'd go back as far as 3 years. (40 pts in 37 games). His production isn't even close to what is use to be. Don't pay him for that.

His production levels in all honesty are a lot closer to ROR levels. Stamkos has been trending downwards over 3 seasons and ROR has been trending upwards over 3 seasons.

 

[theIceWookie]

Notice how ROR has been trending upwards every year and Stamkos has been trending downwards? Ya, dont pay players based on what they did 5-6 years ago. Don't pay Stamkos for his 100, 90, even 80 pt seasons because he isn't that player anymore.

And you sure as hell knew what I was talking about so don't make it sound like I was basing it off of 1 year.

Well Stamkos was an 80 point player two seasons ago, so that's not 4-5 years ago. And he was a 40 goal, 70 point player last season. And Since Jan he's been a 40 goal, 70 point player.

So forgive me I disagree with you, but I'm fine paying Stammer to be a 40 goal, 70 point player.

 

[LeafFever]

In fairness when you score 60 goals in this era, you will be virtually guaranteed to trend downwards.
ROR had 1 50 point season. Easy to trend upwards.

 

[Stand Witness]

Well Stamkos was an 80 point player two seasons ago, so that's not 4-5 years ago. And he was a 40 goal, 70 point player last season. And Since Jan he's been a 40 goal, 70 point player.

So forgive me I disagree with you, but I'm fine paying Stammer to be a 40 goal, 70 point player.

3 seasons ago. He won't be an 80 pt player this season. He was a 40 goal scorer last season but unless he scored a goal a game for the rest of the season he is a 30 goal scorer.

He is trending downwards, lets not pay him based on what he did 3 seasons ago.

 

[Stand Witness]

In fairness when you score 60 goals in this era, you will be virtually guaranteed to trend downwards.
ROR had 1 50 point season. Easy to trend upwards.

Actually, since his 3rd season in the league ROR has produced at lowest a 55 pt pace.

 

[Faltorvo]

It hasn't been one year, or even two years. I'd go back as far as 3 years. (40 pts in 37 games). His production isn't even close to what is use to be. Don't pay him for that.

His production levels in all honesty are a lot closer to ROR levels. Stamkos has been trending downwards over 3 seasons and ROR has been trending upwards over 3 seasons.

Ya, know Matthews

I can't tell if your just ill informed or flat out lying, trying sooo hard to prove a point.

If one includes this season, then 3 seasons ago would be the season he played 37 games.

In those 37 games he was on pace for 55 goals and on pace for 87 points and you find that troubling?

That would have earned him The Rocket and finish 2nd in points.

 

[Pookie]

Agreed.

Laws of supply and demand economics apply.

The more teams that drop out of the Stamkos race the better the situation becomes for the Leafs to successfully land him.

And pay over $80M over 7 years ($11m+ a season)

 

[theIceWookie]

It hasn't been one year, or even two years. I'd go back as far as 3 years. (40 pts in 37 games). His production isn't even close to what is use to be. Don't pay him for that.

His production levels in all honesty are a lot closer to ROR levels. Stamkos has been trending downwards over 3 seasons and ROR has been trending upwards over 3 seasons.

Hahahaha no they aren't. Last season ROR put up 17 goals and 55 points. Stamkos put up 43 goals and 72 points. When ROR got close to 30 goals in 2013-2014, Stammer put up 25...in 43 less games. This is frankly the only season ROR has been close to Stamkos

Also ROR hasn't been ternding upwards for three seasons. His production from 2013-2104 actually FELL through 2014-2015. Both is goal scoring and points. It's only jumped back up to the 2013-2014 level this year, which might have something to do with the prime minutes he's getting. ROR is a fantastic player but he's a 25 goal 65 point player.

And Stamkos production has fallen because of an injury lol. I'll bet on him getting to 70/80 levels than I ever would on ROR. In his past 14 games, he's basically back at a PPG putting up 13 points. Since Jan he's pushed his production up to 40 goal, 70 point territory again.

And the NHL has changed. Stamkos isn't going to be hitting 90 points regularily because NO ONE IS. That doesn't make him this ever worsening player, that means the production in the NHL is becoming something different. 70 points in elite, and player who can hit 40 goals and 80 points is something you go after. Maybe a handful of players in this league can do that, and Stamkos sure is one. ROR certainly isn't.

I'd have no problem betting that Stamkos will hit PPG levels again

 

[LeafFever]

There will not be many teams offering Stamkos a contract. And none will be cup contenders despite all the "He Will Only Play For a Contender" talk.

 

[Stand Witness]

Ya, know Matthews

I can't tell if your just ill informed or flat out lying, trying sooo hard to prove a point.

If one includes this season, then 3 seasons ago would be the season he played 37 games.

In those 37 games he was on pace for 55 goals and on pace for 87 points and you find that troubling?

That would have earned him The Rocket and finish 2nd in points.

Nope. I am informed.

The season before that he was on a 97 pt pace, following a 97 pt performance. So that next season he declined a full 10 pts in pace.

The next season he declined 15 pts from that pace.

This season he projects to decline 8 pts from last season.

He is, say it with me, declining. He isn't the same player that he was. Lets not pay him as if he is.

 

[theIceWookie]

3 seasons ago. He won't be an 80 pt player this season. He was a 40 goal scorer last season but unless he scored a goal a game for the rest of the season he is a 30 goal scorer.

He is trending downwards, lets not pay him based on what he did 3 seasons ago.

And he's still in a position to score the 3rd most goals in the league...

Seems more like league scoring trending down instead of Stamkos himself...