theIceWookie
#LeafHysteriaAlert
So he isn't worth 10M+ then right?
Sounds like what I was arguing the whole time. Don't pay him for his massive years (what some people want to do) and pay him for what he is doing now (eg. Less than or = to 10M)
Although this WAR/GAR stuff isn't really done that well. As someone mentioned in your other thread, Bergeron's faceoff ability alone was more valuable than Gardiner alone.
That in and off itself is something that comes down to how much you want to accept certain stats relevance. There's a lot of advanced stat work that has gone into faceoff's that are starting to show that the actual effect winning has on a game is more minimal than has been previously assumed. Personally I'm not sure how much I accept the premise but it's intriguing to think about.
The whole issue on signing Stamkos comes down to two factors that can't be determined, only assumed.
1) What his future production will be.
He's on pace for his lowest full season total since being a rookie (lockout season and injured season excluded, he was over a PPG for both). That represents three straight seasons of falling points per game percentage. Also has seen a drop in goals per game from 55, to 43 to 36. Yet he's only just turned 26, he was 2nd in goals in the league last season, and he's currently 8th in goals in the league. His team has seen a steep drop in goals per game, yet he's still leading his team in points. 26 isn't usually a magically dropoff point for elite level scorers, and we've seen elite scorers go through periods like this before only to jump up and score at higher levels (IE Ovie). There's an argument to be made that he still hasn't fully recovered from breaking his leg and could continue to see improvement in that next year. Elite scorers also tend to play well into their early 30's, and if he signs any contract it's unlikely he'll hit 30 and drop off dramatically.
and
2) What his yearly AAV will be.
It's almost impossible to know what he'll sign for, because the year's he can be offered will change the way he gets a contract compared to past high profile UFA's. His rights could be acquired too and if a team can add an extra year to the deal, that would change things. Plus we've recently seen others like Toews and Kane signing deals under the new rules that basically change how contracts should be viewed. ROR without any history of high end production getting 7.5 million. Before the limit on contract years that contract would have been universally criticized. Now it's going to represent much more of the norm. Star players like Kopitar, Kane, Getzlaf, Kessel etc are pushing up values to 8/9/10 million dollar numbers. That's likely going to be closer to the norm for stars. Also is it logical to assume that he'll demand a max contract? I'm not sure. A down year offensively certainly would be used by teams to try and bring that down. He also might want to give the team he is going to some flexibility so they can build a better team. We can't really say which way he'll go because we've literally never seen a star like this hit free agency before, especially under this type of cap paradigm.
It comes down to what side of those two issues you're one.
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