Value of: SJ Timo Meier

[Pinkfloyd]

Should be interesting to see what the Sharks do with Meier. Easily the best return of any asset they have and a 10 mil qualifier would really handcuff the team next year cap wise. They only have about 17 million in room with 14 players signed. Of course he could sign a long term deal for less than his qualifier but if he doesn't and excepts the QO it lowers his price and restricts what teams can trade for him.

A 10 million QO pill is hard to swallow.

Meier's next contract won't handcuff the Sharks at all. They have more than enough flexibility to account even for a 10 mil contract for one season next year. And considering he would be the top priority, everything else would be done to work around that.

 

[Gecklund]

Yeah, I'd offer this for Meier:

Holtz + Top 10 protected 2023 1st + Nolan Foote

I’d be open to this. I’d prefer a D prospect over Foote maybe like Casey but I’m sure the Sharks wouldn’t. I don’t think I’d accept a top 10 protected pick though but I don’t expect it to be top 10 anyway. Probably something like 15-25.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

This isn't the boogeyman that everyone makes it out to be.

Tkachuk had a QO of 9 and he was signed and traded at 9.5 x 8 rather than be given the QO. I can't imagine Meier given a 8.5-10 x 8 contract being the end of the world long term.

QO is the worst case scenario, but even then the team can flip as a rental. Most likely the player would want to consider a long term extension over the QO.

Right but the 9 million qualifier was the absolute baseline for discussions: he clearly got over his qualifying offer over a long term deal. So to say the qualifer didn't or wouldnt play a role is likely incorrect. I dont see any logical reason to expect Meier to accept markedly less than the 10 for the same reasons outlined above .

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

If the Sharks are trading Meier, they're in full blown rebuild mode (pretty close to it now but still BSing around). They'd be looking for futures. For the Devils fans in this thread asking about the price, I'd say it starts with an unprotected 2023 1st round pick. This is supposed to be a beast draft and exactly where you want to kickstart a rebuild.

Devils would not be great trading partners with respect to a futures trade at this point because they are at the cap. Devils would need to be getting rid of salary and I doubt SJ would like any of the junk we would be looking to unload.

 

[boredmale]

I could see Islanders interested if Meier was willing to resign

 

[Xirik]

Devils would not be great trading partners with respect to a futures trade at this point because they are at the cap. Devils would need to be getting rid of salary and I doubt SJ would like any of the junk we would be looking to unload.

it wouldn't be so hard. add two of Tatar/Johnsson/Graves/Wood (all of them are UFA's at the end of the season) back to SJ for Meier and that fixes the cap problem for this season and the other UFA's will fix the cap problems for next year. SJ would probably have to move around 500k worth of contracts to get it to work on their end but that wouldn't be that hard.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Devils would not be great trading partners with respect to a futures trade at this point because they are at the cap. Devils would need to be getting rid of salary and I doubt SJ would like any of the junk we would be looking to unload.

I suppose that depends on the status of Bernier. If he's LTIR for the season, the Devils have about 4 mil to play with. However, putting that aside, I think they can still get something done dollar for dollar because the Sharks can retain 50% and take back a Tatar or Wood or Johnsson.

 

[My3Sons]

Devils would not be great trading partners with respect to a futures trade at this point because they are at the cap. Devils would need to be getting rid of salary and I doubt SJ would like any of the junk we would be looking to unload.

NJ has plenty of cap next season. SJ probably isn't moving Meier now. You'd expect the new regime to want to see how the season plays out before making any big decision on the future of the team. Assuming Meier wants to go to UFA or at least leave SJ if he isn't happy with the direction of the team, it's early in the offseason before that QO kicks in most likely.

As an aside, if NJ traded for Meier they'd probably be trading away Bratt. I'm skeptical they would keep and pay both.

 

[Gecklund]

I could see Islanders interested if Meier was willing to resign

Gonna be honest don’t think Isles have the pieces to make a competitive package.

NJ has plenty of cap next season. SJ probably isn't moving Meier now. You'd expect the new regime to want to see how the season plays out before making any big decision on the future of the team. Assuming Meier wants to go to UFA or at least leave SJ if he isn't happy with the direction of the team, it's early in the offseason before that QO kicks in most likely.

As an aside, if NJ traded for Meier they'd probably be trading away Bratt. I'm skeptical they would keep and pay both.

I mean I could see Timo moving any time. If they move Timo they’d actually be rebuilding. When they start the season bad, I think you’ll see rumors really start picking up.

 

[My3Sons]

Gonna be honest don’t think Isles have the pieces to make a competitive package.

I mean I could see Timo moving any time. If they move Timo they’d actually be rebuilding. When they start the season bad, I think you’ll see rumors really start picking up.

Does the new regime really go right into a rebuild with those unlovable deals and long term forwards though? Rebuildig is a last resort in real life.

 

[Djp]

Because of his QO he’s likely one yr to being a UFA.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Does the new regime really go right into a rebuild with those unlovable deals and long term forwards though? Rebuildig is a last resort in real life.

The new regime isn't rebuilding per se but they aren't looking at it as a last resort. Grier wants to change the culture and moving Burns was done in a way that let Burns make the decision on whether to stay or go and oblige his desire to compete to the best of their ability. As it relates to Timo Meier, if he doesn't want to re-sign, they have to get what they can for him. A lot of this sort of stuff puts the team in a certain direction whether they want to or not. Hertl wanted to stay and controls his destiny if things don't work out for him here.

 

[Gecklund]

Does the new regime really go right into a rebuild with those unlovable deals and long term forwards though? Rebuildig is a last resort in real life.

I mean do they really have long term forwards? They really only have Eklund/Bordeleau who are close to ready. Only guys who are on the books in 3 years are Hertl, Couture, Sturm, EK, Vlasic, Ferraro, Benning. That’s 3 forwards and 4 D.

EK and Ferraro are in long term plans. Vlasic is whatever. Scratch him. Benning can be waived. We really only have Laroque, Merkley, Kniazev, and Hatakka on defense for prospects. Laroque I love and think he will be a top 4 D. The other three look closer to bottom pairing.

At forward, Sturm can be waived or scratched or whatever. Doesn’t really matter. Hertl is damn good. Couture is good enough to be behind Hertl. Other than Bordeleau and Bystedt, most of our forward prospects that actually matter aren’t C. They talked about moving Eklund to center but even if he does move to C it’s a long play there like it was with Hertl.

TLDR version: Sharks contract situation isn’t good don’t get me wrong but it’s no where near as bad as people say. The defense has a few long term contracts but we don’t have the prospects to make that matter. The forwards only have 3 long term contracts and they all play the position weakest in the pool. A rebuild isn’t the right word although it’s the one I used. It’s more of a retool.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Does the new regime really go right into a rebuild with those unlovable deals and long term forwards though? Rebuildig is a last resort in real life.

Yes. They can just sit through the Karlsson contract while they rebuild. It's easier to rebuild with bad contracts then it is to be competitive.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Would honestly make sense for Sharks to trade him for high level futures. They aren't doing anything until EK/Vlasic contracts are off the books anyways.

Knowing them though they'll sign him long-term $9x8

 

[StreetHawk]

Would honestly make sense for Sharks to trade him for high level futures. They aren't doing anything until EK/Vlasic contracts are off the books anyways.

Knowing them though they'll sign him long-term $9x8

SJ has hung into their guys even extending Hertl which logically didn’t make see if they are riding out the bad contracts. But they didn’t have a permanent GM so it was a group decision to keep Hertl.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Would honestly make sense for Sharks to trade him for high level futures. They aren't doing anything until EK/Vlasic contracts are off the books anyways.

Knowing them though they'll sign him long-term $9x8

I like a lot of what Devils fans have offered for Timo Meier this offseason but I don't really think that their team would actually put high level futures on the table for Meier given his contract status. If they're talking about trading him, it's because he's told them he doesn't want to stay long term. Even though Meier has no trade protections and will have a vast trade market, most of the teams interested will be leading with a 1st round pick that will be in the 16-32 range and a prospect that probably projects out into the middle of the lineup rather than a top guy. The Sharks should still make that deal anyway if Meier doesn't want to stay but I'm not getting my hopes up on a quality return for Meier. He holds most of the leverage and other teams can afford to wait.

 

[Xirik]

I like a lot of what Devils fans have offered for Timo Meier this offseason but I don't really think that their team would actually put high level futures on the table for Meier given his contract status. If they're talking about trading him, it's because he's told them he doesn't want to stay long term. Even though Meier has no trade protections and will have a vast trade market, most of the teams interested will be leading with a 1st round pick that will be in the 16-32 range and a prospect that probably projects out into the middle of the lineup rather than a top guy. The Sharks should still make that deal anyway if Meier doesn't want to stay but I'm not getting my hopes up on a quality return for Meier. He holds most of the leverage and other teams can afford to wait.

I guess the Devils would be hoping his friendship with Hischier and great play together in various tournaments would make him want to stay with the Devils.

 

[Dog]

Look good In Minnesota or Nashville!

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I guess the Devils would be hoping his friendship with Hischier and great play together in various tournaments would make him want to stay with the Devils.

I honestly have no doubts that Meier would want to play in New Jersey. I just don't think that a trade to New Jersey will yield the return that most have discussed on these boards due to the leverage Meier and the Devils would have on the Sharks in this situation. Chances are that the Sharks would probably only get a renter's value back which would probably be whatever cap dump(s) New Jersey would need to send the Sharks way, a 1st, and someone like Okhotiuk. Not terrible given that context but not the rebuild kickstarter people seem to think it would be.

 

[Xirik]

I honestly have no doubts that Meier would want to play in New Jersey. I just don't think that a trade to New Jersey will yield the return that most have discussed on these boards due to the leverage Meier and the Devils would have on the Sharks in this situation. Chances are that the Sharks would probably only get a renter's value back which would probably be whatever cap dump(s) New Jersey would need to send the Sharks way, a 1st, and someone like Okhotiuk. Not terrible given that context but not the rebuild kickstarter people seem to think it would be.

I think it would depend on if the trade happen before the season or at the trade deadline. I think the Devils would give more then what you suggested if it happened soon-ish but if it was at the trade deadline then definitely the trade would probably be what you said.

 

[Fig]

Right but the 9 million qualifier was the absolute baseline for discussions: he clearly got over his qualifying offer over a long term deal. So to say the qualifer didn't or wouldnt play a role is likely incorrect. I dont see any logical reason to expect Meier to accept markedly less than the 10 for the same reasons outlined above .

I didn't say the QO wouldn't play a role. I'm saying it's not the detriment that some posters are making it out to be. There's plenty of posters who basically think the 10 million QO is an automatic 10 million dollars worth of salt prior to him waltzing to UFA. That's literally not the case. That's what I meant.

I think the Sharks and Meier himself are less upset at a 10.5-11 x 8 deal vs paying him 1 x 10 and him waltzing to UFA.

 

[My3Sons]

I honestly have no doubts that Meier would want to play in New Jersey. I just don't think that a trade to New Jersey will yield the return that most have discussed on these boards due to the leverage Meier and the Devils would have on the Sharks in this situation. Chances are that the Sharks would probably only get a renter's value back which would probably be whatever cap dump(s) New Jersey would need to send the Sharks way, a 1st, and someone like Okhotiuk. Not terrible given that context but not the rebuild kickstarter people seem to think it would be.

If NJ could sign Meier as part of the transaction, the return should be at least what MN got for Fiala. As you have said, the ball is in Meier's court. I think the window is already open for SJ to talk to Meier? If so, they should know relatively soon whether he wants to stick around in SJ or move on. NJ would be an easy fit for him and he'd have a ready made linemate and friends but who knows what he might want.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

I suppose that depends on the status of Bernier. If he's LTIR for the season, the Devils have about 4 mil to play with. However, putting that aside, I think they can still get something done dollar for dollar because the Sharks can retain 50% and take back a Tatar or Wood or Johnsson.

I do not think the Devils are at the point that they will be looking to go over the cap and use LTIR. Once they signed Palat and acquired Marino any chances of bringing in another high priced player from outside the org this year was over.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

NJ has plenty of cap next season. SJ probably isn't moving Meier now. You'd expect the new regime to want to see how the season plays out before making any big decision on the future of the team. Assuming Meier wants to go to UFA or at least leave SJ if he isn't happy with the direction of the team, it's early in the offseason before that QO kicks in most likely.

As an aside, if NJ traded for Meier they'd probably be trading away Bratt. I'm skeptical they would keep and pay both.

I do not agree that the Devils will necessarily have plenty of cap space next season. If they are bad they will have it, but not likely if they are good. Bratt, Rango and Blackwood all need new deals next year. If they play well that will eat up most of what they have coming off. Also Nemec has the potential to earn $3.25 in performance bonuses, so they have to stay under the cap to start 23-24 so they can accrue cap space.