LeBrun: Sharks & Karlsson ''on same page'' to try and get a trade done

[one2gamble]

People keep talking about how burns and Karl didn't work without actually looking at how they were utilized. If they did that, they would know it was mostly the staff.

 

[Jacob]

I would hope if the Pens acquire Karlsson he bumps Letang down and off PP1.

 

[mpp9]

I would hope if the Pens acquire Karlsson he bumps Letang down and off PP1.

Wouldn’t mind seeing both out there.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Somebody gets it

Everybody gets it. It's just that your points regarding an 11.5 mil cap hit is irrelevant when retention is already baked into the cake for discussions here. The actual issue is what number is being retained and how much that ought to cost. That's all it really is and it won't be known until something gets finalized. All the other points about taking what's there is just normal armchair GM negotiation stuff. It doesn't actually matter.

 

[Sysreq]

Page 93 without a single piece of news in like a month.

Starting to think this trade rumor exists only to get HF through the offseason.

Supposedly there is a handshake agreement in place with the Penguins and the whole thing is just waiting for their post arbitration buyout window to open up. Who knows though.

 

[Fatass]

I'm expecting EK to be a shark at this point. There's no need to move him if the offers aren't there. Heck, it wouldn't surprise me if people are still low balling offers in 2 years because he hadn't been traded.

If the Sharks are wanting to draft as high as possible over these next few years, then trading away Karlsson will help with that. It’s almost a certainty that without EK this year the Sharks are 10 points worse. Next year that’s likely too. I’m sure their GM weighs that into his actions. Imo we will see EK traded. And the higher draft picks the Sharks end up with over these next few years even if it’s just from 5OA to 2OA) should be considered part of the assets gained.

 

[stator]

Sharks can gain those picks just by icing the right goalie.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

So Grier needs to hold out until he gets what he wants. As long as he's using the retention slots, he's winning either way.

Unless Karlsson regressions during next season or gets injured. In which case, he now has a heavily depreciated asset that will get even less interest. Just a year ago, the idea of getting anything remotely decent for Karlsson was laughable.

At some point, you have to accept a decent return instead of "what you want". Otherwise, you'll end up with nothing.

That, or Karlsson plays really well and helps win SJS games, which screws with their draft position. There's a solid chance they could have be sittin' pretty with Bedard right now, but Karlsson's Norris season ruined that.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

That, or Karlsson plays really well and helps win SJS games, which screws with their draft position. There's a solid chance they could have be sittin' pretty with Bedard right now, but Karlsson's Norris season ruined that.

Blaming Karlsson for the lottery results is a reach.

 

[Zbynek]

Boughner was also stupid enough to put Burns on PP1 over Karlsson. Would Sullivan make that same mistake? I doubt it.

If there was ever a coach who could outdo Dan Bylsma playing Jarome Iginla on his offwing, it's Mike Sullivan.

 

[ottawah]

Supposedly there is a handshake agreement in place with the Penguins and the whole thing is just waiting for their post arbitration buyout window to open up. Who knows though.

Be interesting to see how they manage it, I'm not seeing anywhere near enough buyout range to be remotely close, barely enough just to be cap compliant as it is. Nearly all of their players have NTC/NMC. Not sure why any would want to go to SJ. SJ seemed pretty adamant about holding to a 20% retention. Even if Granlund was included it leaves a 5M hole to be filled.

Asking a third team for retention will be a massive cost. Thats 4 years of retention.

Maybe if they offload Granlund, Ellers and Rutta, but that just adds to the price.

 

[Zbynek]

Be interesting to see how they manage it, I'm not seeing anywhere near enough buyout range to be remotely close, barely enough just to be cap compliant as it is. Nearly all of their players have NTC/NMC. Not sure why any would want to go to SJ. SJ seemed pretty adamant about holding to a 20% retention. Even if Granlund was included it leaves a 5M hole to be filled.

Asking a third team for retention will be a massive cost. Thats 4 years of retention.

Maybe if they offload Granlund, Ellers and Rutta, but that just adds to the price.

My guess is SJ retains $3 million (26%), takes Granlund+1st+, and Petry goes to a 3rd team not on his no-trade list. SJ is likely on Petry's no trade-list. Not sure if it will be a third team or a different deal altogether. But if Karlsson comes to Pittsburgh it makes no sense to pay a guy 6.25mil for 3rd line RD mins. Petry will be gone, just not sure if it will be to San Jose.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

Blaming Karlsson for the lottery results is a reach.

SJS were something like even w/ EK at 5v5, and -56 w/o him. You seriously don't think that translates to some points gained here and there?

The results? No. Better odds in the drawing itself? Yeah, absolutely, I'm not sure how the latter can be refuted.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

Everybody gets it. It's just that your points regarding an 11.5 mil cap hit is irrelevant when retention is already baked into the cake for discussions here. The actual issue is what number is being retained and how much that ought to cost. That's all it really is and it won't be known until something gets finalized. All the other points about taking what's there is just normal armchair GM negotiation stuff. It doesn't actually matter.

I’m going to bet that IF… and that is totally an IF at this point, EK is traded, that Sharks fans are going to hate the return.

 

[Zbynek]

I’m going to bet that IF… and that is totally an IF at this point, EK is traded, that Sharks fans are going to hate the return.

As is ALWAYS the case in these types of trades

Doobler gaining leverage by the minute

 

[seroes]

I’m going to bet that IF… and that is totally an IF at this point, EK is traded, that Sharks fans are going to hate the return.

I think that as long as we get valuable assets and don't take back a bad contract longer than Karlsson's it will be a win for us. Getting a true blue chip prospect or unprotected 1st won't happen. But a mid to late 1st and B prospect coming back along with a short term cap dump would be a win.

 

[ottawah]

My guess is SJ retains $3 million (26%), takes Granlund+1st+, and Petry goes to a 3rd team not on his no-trade list. SJ is likely on Petry's no trade-list. Not sure if it will be a third team or a different deal altogether. But if Karlsson comes to Pittsburgh it makes no sense to pay a guy 6.25mil for 3rd line RD mins. Petry will be gone, just not sure if it will be to San Jose.

Agreed mostly. I think if you are asking SJ to eat 3M for 4 years, take on an albatross in Granlund and give up Karlsson, its much more than a 1st, I'm thinking the equivalent of 3 1sts given where Pitt is likely drafting.

Even then paying Letang and Karlsson when they are both offensive specialists on the same side is highly redundant. Agree on trading Petry, but at that salary and years it will cost to have someone eat it, assuming they can find a team. 15 team no trade list may take out teams with any cap space to make it work.

I'm guessing maybe this could be done, but there are so many pieces and costs ....

 

[BillR10]

Unless Karlsson regressions during next season or gets injured. In which case, he now has a heavily depreciated asset that will get even less interest. Just a year ago, the idea of getting anything remotely decent for Karlsson was laughable.

At some point, you have to accept a decent return instead of "what you want". Otherwise, you'll end up with nothing.

There is 0 chance they end up with nothing. If they get 0 for EK and he stays the entirety of his contract, that's 4 years of a retention slots that they wouldnt of had that should each equate to a nice pick. No reason to accept a decent return. The Sharks don't have to move him. The only person in this with something to lose is EK himself. If he doesn't get moved and his value drops his chances of joining a playoff team end. Or he proves last year wasn't a fluke and more teams get on board. Either way sharks are winning as either outcome will net the sharks a better future than settling on a "decent return"

 

[Empoleon8771]

I still don't fully believe yet that the Penguins want to get rid of Granlund and would include him in the Karlsson trade. I still think the team legitimately likes him on the 3rd line and would rather keep him.

I think it's more likely that the Penguins push for heavy retention to get Karlsson and Petry to as close of an even salary swap as possible. It would explain why there needs to be a third team in the deal, because San Jose isn't going to retain nearly that much money on Karlsson.

I'm still sticking with the prediction that the trade ends up looking something like this:

Penguins get Karlsson at $7.5 million
Sharks get Petry, Smith, Poulin and a 2025 conditional 1st (1st if the Penguins make the ECF in either 2024 or 2025, 2nd otherwise) from Pittsburgh while retaining $2 million on Karlsson
Anaheim/Chicago/Arizona gets a 2024 1st from Pittsburgh for retaining $2 million on Karlsson

In total, it's Petry, Smith, Poulin, a 2024 1st and a conditional 2025 1st for Karlsson at $7.5 million, but San Jose loses the 2024 1st to a third team because they're not willing to eat the full $4 million.

 

[Zbynek]

Agreed mostly. I think if you are asking SJ to eat 3M for 4 years, take on an albatross in Granlund and give up Karlsson, its much more than a 1st, I'm thinking the equivalent of 3 1sts given where Pitt is likely drafting.

Even then paying Letang and Karlsson when they are both offensive specialists on the same side is highly redundant. Agree on trading Petry, but at that salary and years it will cost to have someone eat it, assuming they can find a team. 15 team no trade list may take out teams with any cap space to make it work.

I'm guessing maybe this could be done, but there are so many pieces and costs ....

Granlund is honestly not an albatross contract so much as he's just an awful fit in Pittsburgh. I'm not sure how deep SJ is at center but he can fill in as a serviceable 2C in a pinch. Granlund's perceived value got so much worse after his trade to the Penguins for a couple reasons.

First, the gross overpayment by Hextall. In this market where Duchene gets bought out and RyJo gets traded 50% for nothing, trading a 2nd for him for 0% retention was bad business, and it was the icing on the cake for Sleepy getting canned from Pittsburgh.

Second, his absolutely awful usage by Mike Sullivan. It was a mismatch from the start, as 95% of Pens fans on here called it. Granlund succeeded most in Nashville when he got 60%+ of his faceoffs starts in the offensive zone. Suddenly relegated to a defensive 3rd line role in Pittsburgh where that number dropped to 25%, the odds were stacked against Granlund from day 1.

Truth is, Granny doesn't deserve the hate he gets on here. Hextall deserves the most blame, and then Sullivan after him, and Granlund last. Likely, he gives the albatross impression because so many Pens fans want to move him. But that's because of the poor fit in Pittsburgh.

If Granlund walked into a situation in March where one of 87 or 71 was hurt and he had to fill in for them in the top-6, we might be having a completely different discussion right now.

Anyway his contract is 2 years left at 5 million. It's not great but if you consider Pens taking back 34 million of Ek65 for 4 years...I think it's ok. If you are expecting 3 1sts, prepare to be disappointed when the trade goes through.

 

[Maukkis]

I still don't fully believe yet that the Penguins want to get rid of Granlund and would include him in the Karlsson trade. I still think the team legitimately likes him on the 3rd line and would rather keep him.

I think it's more likely that the Penguins push for heavy retention to get Karlsson and Petry to as close of an even salary swap as possible. It would explain why there needs to be a third team in the deal, because San Jose isn't going to retain nearly that much money on Karlsson.

I'm still sticking with the prediction that the trade ends up looking something like this:

Penguins get Karlsson at $7.5 million
Sharks get Petry, Smith, Poulin and a 2025 conditional 1st (1st if the Penguins make the ECF in either 2024 or 2025, 2nd otherwise) from Pittsburgh while retaining $2 million on Karlsson
Anaheim/Chicago/Arizona gets a 2024 1st from Pittsburgh for retaining $2 million on Karlsson

In total, it's Petry, Smith, Poulin, a 2024 1st and a conditional 2025 1st for Karlsson at $7.5 million, but San Jose loses the 2024 1st to a third team because they're not willing to eat the full $4 million.

The Pens aren't cap compliant after that. Also, there's another issue there.

Expect Granlund to be in any imaginable Karlsson deal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Pens aren't cap compliant after that. Also, there's another issue there.

Expect Granlund to be in any imaginable Karlsson deal.

They aren't cap compliant now either. They don't need to be cap compliant with the Karlsson trade, they just need to be cap compliant by the time the season starts.

The Penguins will likely ship DeSmith for a late round pick and will either trade Rutta or LTIRetire Carter to become cap compliant.

For specific numbers, the Penguins are at -$2.66 million in cap space with Karlsson in at $7.5 million and O'Connor in at $900k while Petry and DeSmith go out. The rest of that money can be made up for with Rutta's $2.75 million or Carter's $3.125 million while running with a 22 man roster.

 

[Ogelthorpe]

I think that as long as we get valuable assets and don't take back a bad contract longer than Karlsson's it will be a win for us. Getting a true blue chip prospect or unprotected 1st won't happen. But a mid to late 1st and B prospect coming back along with a short term cap dump would be a win.

You are exactly right. 1st + B prospect + shorter term dumps to make the money work is pretty on par with what I’ve been saying. A lot of your fellow fans seem to think 2 1sts and an A Prospect is the starting point.

 

[Maukkis]

They aren't cap compliant now either. They don't need to be cap compliant with the Karlsson trade, they just need to be cap compliant by the time the season starts.

The Penguins will likely ship DeSmith for a late round pick and will either trade Rutta or LTIRetire Carter to become cap compliant.

With what assets? Dumping Rutta costs at least another first, if it's even possible. DeSmith might not have any interest from anywhere at this point of the offseason. Then again, burying Nedeljkovic in the AHL brings a lot of cap savings and only a minor penalty, so I'd just opt for that instead.

The buyout window was mentioned above as a bottleneck for this deal, and I would find that much more believable than your "we can just dump our guys" -method. Dumping Granlund and buying out Petry just about gets them cap compliant, and it is much easier and less costly to pull off too.

 

[Empoleon8771]

With what assets? Dumping Rutta costs at least another first, if it's even possible. DeSmith might not have any interest from anywhere at this point of the offseason. Then again, burying Nedeljkovic in the AHL brings a lot of cap savings and only a minor penalty, so I'd just opt for that instead.

The buyout window was mentioned above as a bottleneck for this deal, and I would find that much more believable than your "we can just dump our guys" -method. Dumping Granlund and buying out Petry just about gets them cap compliant, and it is much easier and less costly to pull off too.

What in the hell are you talking about