Post-Game Talk: Season is over

[McShogun99]

I saw this post on reddit, and it really hammers home just how screwed we are next year...

RNH Mcdavid Rattie
Lucic Drai JP
Caguilla Strome Aberg
Kassian Khaira Pak

Klef Larsson
Nurse New guy
Russel Sekera
Benning

This is how i see it playing out next season because of a lack of cap space, and a lack of trading chips.

The top line will be fine. Second line would require a huge bounce back from lucic, and a big step forward from JP.

Third line might get 30 goals total playing together consistently with a bit of PP time like this year.

Fourth line might score 20 total.

if Drai lucic and JP can manage 60 between them (which is very optimistic) i'd call that a success.

Klef Larsson - best seasons to date would be 16 goals total

Nurse whoever - assume this new Dman is offensively our best and can score 15. Combined with 10 from nurse because I'm optimistic is 25 goals.

Sekera Russel - career best seasons together would be 18, but playing as the third pairing, ill go with 15. Still optimistic.

Benning - lets go with 5 since i hope he doesn't play as much as this year.

That means the top line needs to score 60 goals in order to reach 250 goals, which is what the Avs have this year, and would put us top 10 in goals for. Assuming Mcdavid is good for 40, Nuge for 25, rattie would need 14.
so to get a +16 in goal differential which Colorado has this year, we would also need to reduce our goal total on the season to 234.

So talbot and our backup would need to allow 26 less goals on the season total.

So if everyone rebounds to near career best seasons offensively, JP turns into a 20 goal scorer, rattie can stick in the NHL and score 14 goals, Lucic goes back to 20+ goal form, we pick up a Dman who's good for 15 goals, Talbot and his backup play at the rate of an average goaltender at least, and no injuries occur, we'd be sitting where the avalanche are next year, assuming everyone else stays exactly the same.


All of this to make it to the playoffs as the last seed. Chia has his work cut out for him..

It's not going to be that bad. We'll have about 10 million in cap space going into this off season if PC just gives the RFA's their QO's and lets the UFA's go. The 1st will probably get traded for a defenceman in the 5.5 range which will leave us with 4.5 to sign a UFA winger. PC will probably sign a new backup goalie and put Montoya in the minors i f he can't trade him. I also fully expect JP in the top 6 and Yamamoto in the lineup. Next off season PC will trade Russel and Sekera giving us an extra 9.5 and the season after that will probably be Lucic's last as an Oiler as he will either be put on LTIR or be bought out under the new CBA.

RNH-Mcdavid-Rattie
Vanek/Maroon-Draisaitl-JP
Lucic-Strome-Yamamoto
Aberg-Khaira-Kassian

Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Dumba/Barrie/Miller
Nurse-Russel

Talbot
Hutton/Khudobin

 

[russ99]

I saw this post on reddit, and it really hammers home just how screwed we are next year...

RNH Mcdavid Rattie
Lucic Drai JP
Caguilla Strome Aberg
Kassian Khaira Pak

Klef Larsson
Nurse New guy
Russel Sekera
Benning

This is how i see it playing out next season because of a lack of cap space, and a lack of trading chips.

The top line will be fine. Second line would require a huge bounce back from lucic, and a big step forward from JP.

Third line might get 30 goals total playing together consistently with a bit of PP time like this year.

Fourth line might score 20 total.

if Drai lucic and JP can manage 60 between them (which is very optimistic) i'd call that a success.

Klef Larsson - best seasons to date would be 16 goals total

Nurse whoever - assume this new Dman is offensively our best and can score 15. Combined with 10 from nurse because I'm optimistic is 25 goals.

Sekera Russel - career best seasons together would be 18, but playing as the third pairing, ill go with 15. Still optimistic.

Benning - lets go with 5 since i hope he doesn't play as much as this year.

That means the top line needs to score 60 goals in order to reach 250 goals, which is what the Avs have this year, and would put us top 10 in goals for. Assuming Mcdavid is good for 40, Nuge for 25, rattie would need 14.
so to get a +16 in goal differential which Colorado has this year, we would also need to reduce our goal total on the season to 234.

So talbot and our backup would need to allow 26 less goals on the season total.

So if everyone rebounds to near career best seasons offensively, JP turns into a 20 goal scorer, rattie can stick in the NHL and score 14 goals, Lucic goes back to 20+ goal form, we pick up a Dman who's good for 15 goals, Talbot and his backup play at the rate of an average goaltender at least, and no injuries occur, we'd be sitting where the avalanche are next year, assuming everyone else stays exactly the same.


All of this to make it to the playoffs as the last seed. Chia has his work cut out for him..

The UFAs other than Rattie signed at a reasonable amount and all the RFAs other than Nurse all have to go, unless they accept two-way deals, which is highly doubtful. We could trade some RFA rights at the draft for more picks.

That’s another $7-8M not spent next year off the cap. With Nurse’s raise, that’s $12-13M available range and can make some real additions, before we start thinking about trades.

I think Puljujarvi will be moved. He seems lost out there and is too good for the AHL and not good enough for a top six role. As a high pick he still has good trade value, even though we mishandled him from the beginning. Oilers need to get their player development staff in order and better help European players transition to North America for future prospects.

Also, Kassian isn’t giving us enough for his cap hit and we can move Montoya if we find a better backup.

Lots of moves we can make to bring in better complementary players even before we talk about moving Klefbom or Nuge.

 

[Raoul Duke]

I am not even excited for the season to be over because the off seasons have been just as dissapointing. If we see some firings than I may be excited again but I'm not holding my breath. Completely expecting to feel the same way this time next year except no Art Ross for McDavid

Relative to the rest of his deals here, can you imagine what Chia cooks up when he’s desperate?

 

[Aerchon]

Rough season.

Felt as bad as any during the decade of Darkness but only because expectations were so high. In general much better hockey than any year outside last for a good long time.

Personally believe in the way the team is being built. Strength down the center. Need to retool or hope for bounce back seasons from some key personal. Notably Talbot, Klefbom, and Sekera.

Hate how the emphasis has been on lack of scoring this year and Chiarelli, while legit as well, those are not the primary causes of this disappointing season.

Goaltending
Team defense
Special teams/coaching

Winger depth and scoring

We have help on the wings developing and thats needs to happen internally or cheaply. Hopefully a guy like Nurse continues to develop and maybe a Bear or Jonee also steps up down the road.

 

[shoop]

It's not going to be that bad. We'll have about 10 million in cap space going into this off season if PC just gives the RFA's their QO's and lets the UFA's go. The 1st will probably get traded for a defenceman in the 5.5 range which will leave us with 4.5 to sign a UFA winger. PC will probably sign a new backup goalie and put Montoya in the minors i f he can't trade him. I also fully expect JP in the top 6 and Yamamoto in the lineup. Next off season PC will trade Russel and Sekera giving us an extra 9.5 and the season after that will probably be Lucic's last as an Oiler as he will either be put on LTIR or be bought out under the new CBA.

RNH-Mcdavid-Rattie
Vanek/Maroon-Draisaitl-JP
Lucic-Strome-Yamamoto
Aberg-Khaira-Kassian

Klefbom-Larsson
Sekera-Dumba/Barrie/Miller
Nurse-Russel

Talbot
Hutton/Khudobin

I think that's a pretty solid looking lineup or the skaters. Given those options I'd prefer Vanek and Dumba.

I really like the idea of Puljujarvi in the top 6. Plans on how to continue Puljujarvi's develpment should be part of the interview for koala's replacement.

For the fourth line I'd go Caggiula-Khaira-Kassian with Aberg as the 13th forward.

The goaltending needs more of an ugrade.

I'd like to see Lehtonen/Halak/Bernier.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

a complete waste of a season and McDavid Art Ross season

burn the tape on this season, fire somebody, and make sure it never happens again

 

[BlackDogg]

You can't Not fire someone after that season with Connor on this team in year 3. Its just a matter of when.

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

You can't Not fire someone after that season with Connor on this team in year 3. Its just a matter of when.

Our window is right now. It has already been ruined by Chia. The Hall and Eberle trades were such a horrific loss of value that we'll need to recoup this summer if we have any chance of making use of McDavid's prime. I don't think Chia is that guy.

 

[ToeMcDrag83]

Edit: Sorry @McBeastMode just finished reading the GDT from last night lol

 

[McShogun99]

Our window is right now. It has already been ruined by Chia. The Hall and Eberle trades were such a horrific loss of value that we'll need to recoup this summer if we have any chance of making use of McDavid's prime. I don't think Chia is that guy.

Neither of Hall or Eberle should have been traded during Mcdavid's ELC unless it was for a legit top pairing defenceman. We had elite wingers to play with our centers for 3 seasons before we had to make trades.

 

[Little Fury]

It's not going to be that bad. We'll have about 10 million in cap space going into this off season if PC just gives the RFA's their QO's and lets the UFA's go.

You have to replace those UFAs though. Plus there's bonuses, raises (Nurse) and buyouts to account for. Most conservative estimates I've seen have the Oilers with about $3M in cap space when it's all said and done. That's just to keep the roster as-is.

 

[Soundwave]

Our window is right now. It has already been ruined by Chia. The Hall and Eberle trades were such a horrific loss of value that we'll need to recoup this summer if we have any chance of making use of McDavid's prime. I don't think Chia is that guy.

Agreed with this. Barring a miracle, they've ruined this window early in McDavid's career with horrendous trades and overspending on mediocre players like Lucic and Russell. The goal now really is to probably have a legit contending team by the time Connor is 24/25.

 

[McShogun99]

Agreed with this. Barring a miracle, they've ruined this window early in McDavid's career with horrendous trades and overspending on mediocre players like Lucic and Russell. The goal now really is to probably have a legit contending team by the time Connor is 24/25.

I also think that having Hall on the team making 6 million could have bought down the contract demands of Draisaitl and Mcdavid. Plus it would have saved us from signing Lucic. I still think we'd have Sekera and Russel as well as Demers. You will see Laine take less money because of what Wheeler and Scheifele are making.

 

[Little Fury]

Agreed with this. Barring a miracle, they've ruined this window early in McDavid's career with horrendous trades and overspending on mediocre players like Lucic and Russell. The goal now really is to probably have a legit contending team by the time Connor is 24/25.

I'm as negative as anyone, but 4-5 years is a bit over the top. If they fire the GM, they can turn it around in two years IMO.

 

[Soundwave]

I'm as negative as anyone, but 4-5 years is a bit over the top. If they fire the GM, they can turn it around in two years IMO.

Well I don't think they are going to fire the GM or have any accountability this summer. Add two years to that for a new GM to undue damage done and Connor is 24.

It's gonna be tough to move all this garbage salary we have.

 

[Little Fury]

Well I don't think they are going to fire the GM or have any accountability this summer. Add two years to that for a new GM to undue damage done and Connor is 24.

It's gonna be tough to move all this garbage salary we have.

He'll have a short leash so hopefully no Klef or RNH trades are in the works. Good pick this year and some talent coming into Bako that could make a difference in a couple of years. Those bad contracts are an issue, but it's not impossible.

Hey I'm just trying to find some reason to stay a fan here.

 

[shoop]

I'm as negative as anyone, but 4-5 years is a bit over the top. If they fire the GM, they can turn it around in two years IMO.

There is no reason for four or five years. It's just ridiculous hyperbole to somehow make a case for firing the GM somehow ironclad.

Teams can have bad seasons. Look at the last three Avalanche seasons. 82 points - 48 points - 95 points.

Why can't the Oilers go 103 points - 78 points - 95 points?

 

[Soundwave]

There is no reason for four or five years. It's just ridiculous hyperbole to somehow make a case for firing the GM somehow ironclad.

Teams can have bad seasons. Look at the last three Avalanche seasons. 82 points - 48 points - 95 points.

Why can't the Oilers go 103 points - 78 points - 95 points?

I'm talking about being a legit contender, not a "maybe playoffs" team, that's not some big accomplishment, Arizona might do that next year, any team can have one season where they're not in the bottom half of the league. Over 50% of the teams in the NHL make the playoffs.

Right now the winger depth on this team is basically starting at 0/rock bottom, the D core is not that good, maybe 4th best in the division even when healthy, and the goaltending is a pretty sizable question mark.

Cap situation is bad and is likely going to require a few years to resolve, Puljujarvi pick has not played out the way the team needed, whoever they take this year is likely 2-3 years out from meaningfully doing something.

They had a window starting in April 2015 to make smart moves and they blew that, making a bunch of poorly thought out trades and signings and likely it will take a while to recover from that.

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

There is no reason for four or five years. It's just ridiculous hyperbole to somehow make a case for firing the GM somehow ironclad.

There's no need for hyperbole; Chiarelli has been the judge, jury and now firing squad for his own case.

Why can't the Oilers go 103 points - 78 points - 95 points?

You're missing a season in there. Wonder why?

 

[Soundwave]

Blowing the 2015 and possibly 2016 drafts I think is something that doesn't get touched on, but effectively instead of walking out with any one of Barzal, Boeser, DeBrincat, Sergachev, or Tkachuk ... we passed on every single one of those guys to get Reinhart (effectively), Puljujarvi, and Benson ... now I mean you can argue the logic behind those picks, but bottom line is the three guys we picked are not helping us win hockey games and probably won't be for a long time, if ever.

If they could've had better picks in those spots they'd be on their way even with some stupid trades, but I think we've had some wonky drafting in 2015/16 plus terrible trades and signings.

It does a number on a franchise. I feel bad for Connor.

 

[shoop]

You're missing a season in there. Wonder why?

Since you are a fanboy of my stalker I guess the inability to read posts because of blinding hatred makes sense. Every thread doesn't have to become an attack on management.

I'll explain my post in more depth.


2016-17 103 points - fact
2017-18 78 points - fact
2018-19 95 points? Is it possible?

I was comparing Colorado going from good season to down season to good season. Why can't the Oilers do the same thing?

 

[Soundwave]

Avs are pretenders, they're not going anywhere.

 

[ujju2]

Blowing the 2015 and possibly 2016 drafts I think is something that doesn't get touched on, but effectively instead of walking out with any one of Barzal, Boeser, DeBrincat, Sergachev, or Tkachuk ... we passed on every single one of those guys to get Reinhart (effectively), Puljujarvi, and Benson ... now I mean you can argue the logic behind those picks, but bottom line is the three guys we picked are not helping us win hockey games and probably won't be for a long time, if ever.

If they could've had better picks in those spots they'd be on their way even with some stupid trades, but I think we've had some wonky drafting in 2015/16 plus terrible trades and signings.

It does a number on a franchise. I feel bad for Connor.

Holy hyperbole. Benson's a surefire NHLer barring injury issues, and if you're writing Puljujarvi off already then I don't know what to tell you. Yeah, the Reinhart trade was bad and Barzal is really good, but that, in fact, DOES get touched on. A lot. Too much, even. So I don't see what your point is.

 

[MessierII]

I'm talking about being a legit contender, not a "maybe playoffs" team, that's not some big accomplishment, Arizona might do that next year, any team can have one season where they're not in the bottom half of the league. Over 50% of the teams in the NHL make the playoffs.

Right now the winger depth on this team is basically starting at 0/rock bottom, the D core is not that good, maybe 4th best in the division even when healthy, and the goaltending is a pretty sizable question mark.

Cap situation is bad and is likely going to require a few years to resolve, Puljujarvi pick has not played out the way the team needed, whoever they take this year is likely 2-3 years out from meaningfully doing something.

They had a window starting in April 2015 to make smart moves and they blew that, making a bunch of poorly thought out trades and signings and likely it will take a while to recover from that.

The league is volatile. Look at Winnipeg last year to this if you don’t like the Colorado example. They didn’t change anything. Just got good goaltending and are now cup contenders.

 

[Little Fury]

There is no reason for four or five years. It's just ridiculous hyperbole to somehow make a case for firing the GM somehow ironclad.

Teams can have bad seasons. Look at the last three Avalanche seasons. 82 points - 48 points - 95 points.

Why can't the Oilers go 103 points - 78 points - 95 points?

They might, but, again, the goal is to win a Cup and this team just doesn't have the horses.