Sean Couturier Part III

[Appleyard]

Centres over 2011-2015 period who had top end QoC, 33+% Dzone starts, and still had a GF rel% better than zero:

Sean Couturier
Patric Bergeron
David Backes
Ryan O'Reilly
Joe Thornton
Mike Fisher
Paul Stastny
Ryan Getzlaf

Guys like Plekanec, Sutter, Kesler, Ansimov & Nielsen are playing those kind of minutes, are well regarded players, but are losing the matchup at 5v5, or at least doing far worse than their teammates do at best. And 3 of those players have high value.

Guys like Hanzal, Sobotka, Soderberg, Dubinsky, Vermette, Staal & Zajac are playing easier minutes... and more than half of that list have lost the matchup over that time period with the easier minutes.

So how do we effectively replace Couturier and what he does? Since very few guys can, and do, do what he does, and every one of them who does bar Fisher would cost the moon! (and Fisher now is not Mike Fisher of a few years ago.)

His direct 'replacement' would almost certainly lose the match-ups he gets, and in turn the Flyers goal difference at 5v5 drops, as the person who replaces him, if he got similar, or even easier minutes, will almost certainly be outscored while on ice.

The only way we could realistically negate that is give Giroux tougher minutes, as he is good (but not as good as Couturier) defensively... but Giroux already plays some of the toughest minutes in the league for a 1C!


Couturier; if he is a 3C, (his EV production the last 2 years has been low end 2nd line) is the best 3C in the NHL.

Frankly the odds of Scott Laughton being able to replace what Couturier does is minimal. Laughton is his career so far has been outcorsi'd and outscored at 5v5 vs mainly 2nd lines with even (31% Ozone, 31% Dzone) zone starts... at Laughton's age Couturier scored at close to 0.5 PPG and was top 10 in Selke voting.


There is a reason team Canada played him more than Schenn, Eakin, Ennis & Toffoli. There is also a reason that for Canada this summer he had the best +/- of any forward in the tournament.

He is more than just 'good' defensively... he is elite. And if he can somehow find ~10 more points of production than he has had over the last 2 seasons he is a great 2C.

So few teams have the luxury of being able to put out a centre who can outmatch the best players in the NHL at 5v5... and that said centre not be a guy who is also your best offensive guy. Couturier for that reason helps the team more than just winning his match-ups, as him being here means Giroux does not have to play a Patrice Bergeron role.

 

[CodyTheHuman]

Centres over 2011-2015 period who had top end QoC, 33+% Dzone starts, and still had a GF rel% better than zero:

Sean Couturier
Patric Bergeron
David Backes
Ryan O'Reilly
Joe Thornton
Mike Fisher
Paul Stastny
Ryan Getzlaf

Guys like Plekanec, Sutter, Kesler, Ansimov & Nielsen are playing those kind of minutes, are well regarded players, but are losing the matchup at 5v5, or at least doing far worse than their teammates do at best. And 3 of those players have high value.

Guys like Hanzal, Sobotka, Soderberg, Dubinsky, Vermette, Staal & Zajac are playing easier minutes... and more than half of that list have lost the matchup over that time period with the easier minutes.

So how do we effectively replace Couturier and what he does? Since very few guys can, and do, do what he does, and every one of them who does bar Fisher would cost the moon! (and Fisher now is not Mike Fisher of a few years ago.)

His direct 'replacement' would almost certainly lose the match-ups he gets, and in turn the Flyers goal difference at 5v5 drops, as the person who replaces him, if he got similar, or even easier minutes, will almost certainly be outscored while on ice.

The only way we could realistically negate that is give Giroux tougher minutes, as he is good (but not as good as Couturier) defensively... but Giroux already plays some of the toughest minutes in the league for a 1C!


Couturier; if he is a 3C, (his EV production the last 2 years has been low end 2nd line) is the best 3C in the NHL.

Frankly the odds of Scott Laughton being able to replace what Couturier does is minimal. Laughton is his career so far has been outcorsi'd and outscored at 5v5 vs mainly 2nd lines with even (31% Ozone, 31% Dzone) zone starts... at Laughton's age Couturier scored at close to 0.5 PPG and was top 10 in Selke voting.


There is a reason team Canada played him more than Schenn, Eakin, Ennis & Toffoli. There is also a reason that for Canada this summer he had the best +/- of any forward in the tournament.

He is more than just 'good' defensively... he is elite. And if he can somehow find ~10 more points of production than he has had over the last 2 seasons he is a great 2C.

So few teams have the luxury of being able to put out a centre who can outmatch the best players in the NHL at 5v5... and that said centre not be a guy who is also your best offensive guy. Couturier for that reason helps the team more than just winning his match-ups, as him being here means Giroux does not have to play a Patrice Bergeron role.

It's a shame he'll read this and ignore what you're saying.

 

[Appleyard]

Madden is a poor example if you want to somehow diminish Cout's value, as he precisely fits that mold of "Selke-caliber center" that pretty much every Cup winning team needs to win. If we have a Madden level player then he needs to be kept.

Yeh... John Madden from 2000-08 was THE premier '3C' in the NHL....

who just so happened to be playing in the top 6 and putting up 2C level non-PP numbers for 3/4 of that time!

Funnily enough Madden was:

2007-08: 1st in TOI for Centres on team.
2006-07: 2nd in TOI for Centres on team. (by 3 seconds)
2005-06: 1st in TOI for Centres on team.
2003-04: 1st in TOI for Centres on team.
2002-03: 1st in TOI for Centres on team.

and his TOI in that time increased in the playoffs... 19:38 TOI on a cup winner... most TOI of any forward in the playoffs... on a cup winner.

Anyone who watched the playoffs when the Devils were a constant contender knew just how important John Madden was to their success. Surely as Flyers fans we all remember just what prime Madden did for that team... he pretty much haunted us at times.

And even old, 4C Madden in Chicago helped them win in the finals... the Briere line decimated Toews in that matchup, but our middle six got outmatched... with Madden being a big part of that. He may have only had 1pt in that finals... but we could not bloody score when he was on ice, game 5 was the only game our middle six managed to get through him.

Does no-one remember this?

 

[Curufinwe]

I didn't realize Madden only became a full time NHLer when he was 26. Talk about a late bloomer.

 

[Tripod]

Funny how a hush comes across the anti-Couturier crowd once proof of what he does is laid before them.

Oh well...in a few days...someone else will be talking about how he isn't a 2nd line C due to his points.

I said it before, Laughton has not taken the scoring C role OR the shutdown C role. Now he finds himself on the wing. Maybe Cousins can put up some points to make certain guys happy.

 

[Psuhockey]

Yeh... John Madden from 2000-08 was THE premier '3C' in the NHL....

who just so happened to be playing in the top 6 and putting up 2C level non-PP numbers for 3/4 of that time!

Funnily enough Madden was:

2007-08: 1st in TOI for Centres on team.
2006-07: 2nd in TOI for Centres on team. (by 3 seconds)
2005-06: 1st in TOI for Centres on team.
2003-04: 1st in TOI for Centres on team.
2002-03: 1st in TOI for Centres on team.

and his TOI in that time increased in the playoffs... 19:38 TOI on a cup winner... most TOI of any forward in the playoffs... on a cup winner.

Anyone who watched the playoffs when the Devils were a constant contender knew just how important John Madden was to their success. Surely as Flyers fans we all remember just what prime Madden did for that team... he pretty much haunted us at times.

And even old, 4C Madden in Chicago helped them win in the finals... the Briere line decimated Toews in that matchup, but our middle six got outmatched... with Madden being a big part of that. He may have only had 1pt in that finals... but we could not bloody score when he was on ice, game 5 was the only game our middle six managed to get through him.

Does no-one remember this?

I remember which was the point of the comparison since no one would ever consider Madden a 2nd line center even with all of his contributions because the production wasn't there.

Couturier is an elite defender but on the trade market scoring centers are much more expensive. Same with top 4 right handed defenders. If I could get Duchene or Trouba straight up for him I would do it and worry about a checking center later. Because even with an elite defensive center in Couturier and an elite 1st center in Giroux, the Flyers will still be missing the playoffs for the 3rd year out of 4 because of secondary scoring and a poor defense.

The other thing to remember which you yourself have pointed out is that it is very difficult to draft scoring centers with most coming high in the draft. Defensive centers can be taken later. Richards, Stoll, Oreilly, and Fisher were guys taken late in the first or early 2nd. Bergeron was taken in the 2nd round because of his defense with scouts not knowing how productive he would end up being. John Madden was a undrafted free agent. If the Flyers will not being choosing top 5, I would rather them have to find a defensive center than a goal scoring center to be the last piece of the cup team. The defensive center might not be as good as Couturier but won't have to be if the other areas are shored up which is a much harder task.

 

[Beef Invictus]

The old "Let's dig a new hole to fill this other hole" strategy of team building.

 

[Psuhockey]

The old "Let's dig a new hole to fill this other hole" strategy of team building.

Well if the one hole in under the foundation versus out in the backyard then yes I say fix the more important hole.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Well if the one hole in under the foundation versus out in the backyard then yes I say fix the more important hole.

You'd be digging a new hole under the foundation to shift the dirt elsewhere under the foundation. Couturier isn't a hole in the backyard. Umberger is a hole in the backyard.

 

[Curufinwe]

I remember which was the point of the comparison since no one would ever consider Madden a 2nd line center even with all of his contributions because the production wasn't there.

Couturier is an elite defender but on the trade market scoring centers are much more expensive. Same with top 4 right handed defenders. If I could get Duchene or Trouba straight up for him I would do it

But you can't.

 

[Striiker]

There better not be a hole in the driveway because I don't want to buy new tires right now...

 

[Beef Invictus]

There better not be a hole in the driveway because I don't want to buy new tires right now...

Vinny is a hole in the driveway, and you better believe there is some sewage bubbling into it from a completely unknown source.

 

[Psuhockey]

But you can't.

You can't because a young top 4 defender and a 2nd line scoring center are much more valuable which is exactly what I was saying.

 

[Rebels57]

You can't because a young top 4 defender and a 2nd line scoring center are much more valuable which is exactly what I was saying.

Value in trade and value towards winning are often different.

 

[Beef Invictus]

If Couturiers are so easy to find, why are there so very few players who do anything like he does?

 

[Adtar02]

Vinny is a hole in the driveway, and you better believe there is some sewage bubbling into it from a completely unknown source.

Schenn's new career?

 

[Curufinwe]

You can't because a young top 4 defender and a 2nd line scoring center are much more valuable which is exactly what I was saying.

Duchene is a top line center on a lot of teams, possibly including the Flyers since he is a stronger ES producer than Giroux while not being as good overall.

Trouba is seen as having top pairing potential.

 

[bb12]

I didnt read the whole conversation or arguement but anyone trying to say Coots doesnt bring value and should be traded falls on the same level of crazy as MANDOG coming on here and saying MANDOG should be in the line up over just about everyone and he is always going to beat someone up.

Coots isnt going to be a high scoring 2C but he will get the job done and he does more things off the score sheet that provide irreplacable value to our team. He is young, cost controlled and can shut down any duo in the league.

I feel the same way about Schenn. He wont put up G and Jake numbers but will quietly be a 50-60 pt player and 20 goal scorer. He is a valuable asset that people want to replace with a 80-90 point winger which will cost up double.

 

[Rebels57]

Duchene is a top line center on a lot of teams, possibly including the Flyers since he is a stronger ES producer than Giroux while not being as good overall.

Trouba is seen as having top pairing potential.

Most over-rated young defensemen in the NHL, IMO.

 

[whitstifier]

Duchene is a top line center on a lot of teams, possibly including the Flyers since he is a stronger ES producer than Giroux while not being as good overall.

Trouba is seen as having top pairing potential.

Doesn't MacKinnon draw tougher opposition than Duchene?

 

[Curufinwe]

Their QoC is very close the past two seasons.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

 

[Beef Invictus]

Schenn's new career?

Interesting. I'll investigate the possibilities and add it to his portfolio.

 

[Tripod]

You can't because a young top 4 defender and a 2nd line scoring center are much more valuable which is exactly what I was saying.

You do know that mid-low end 2nd liners for scoring last year were:

Colin Wilson
Cody Eakin
Mathieu Perreault
Adam Henrique
Carl Soberberg

Derek Stepan had 55 points and was the tipping point between low end 1st line scorer and elite 2nd line scorer. Then low end 2nd line scorers had 45-40 points.

And yes, Couts is a 3rd line C IF YOU ONLY LOOK AT SCORING. Once you add in his elite defense, he easily jumps into a 2nd line C role.

Matt Duchene was mentioned but he is a 1st line point getter...not a 2nd line one. He had 55 points last year but it was his worst PPG year out of the last 4 including this one.

I come back to Brayden Schenn. He scores like a low end winger. Who has a better impact on our team? Easy choice for me.

But that still doesn't mean that I wouldn't like a 60 point #2 C.

 

[Appleyard]

You do know that mid-low end 2nd liners for scoring last year were:

Colin Wilson
Cody Eakin
Mathieu Perreault
Adam Henrique
Carl Soberberg

Derek Stepan had 55 points and was the tipping point between low end 1st line scorer and elite 2nd line scorer. Then low end 2nd line scorers had 45-40 points.

And yes, Couts is a 3rd line C IF YOU ONLY LOOK AT SCORING. Once you add in his elite defense, he easily jumps into a 2nd line C role.

Matt Duchene was mentioned but he is a 1st line point getter...not a 2nd line one. He had 55 points last year but it was his worst PPG year out of the last 4 including this one.

I come back to Brayden Schenn. He scores like a low end winger. Who has a better impact on our team? Easy choice for me.

But that still doesn't mean that I wouldn't like a 60 point #2 C.

Yeh... I would love a 60pt C... but they are rare as rocking horse ****!

2014-15:

60pts: Malkin, Johnson, Zetterberg, Couture, Spezza, Brassard
60pt pace: Malkin, Johnson, Zetterberg, Couture, Spezza, Brassard

2013-14:

60pts: Malkin, Bergeron, Stastny
60pt pace: Malkin, Bergeron, Stastny, Couture

2011-12:

60pts: Bergeron, Couture, Zetterberg
60pt pace: Bergeron, Couture, Zetterberg, Staal

(50+ games played for pace)

I mean, last year here were the 2C's with over 50 point oace in 50+ games played:

Malkin
Johnson
Zetterberg
Couture
Spezza
Brassard
MacKinnon
Fisher
Stastny
Schiefele

10 #2C's paced for 50 points... only 10. And two of these guys played quite a bit of time on effectively 1st line wing.

There were only 95 forwards in the NHL last season who paced for 50+ point pace in 50+ games!

If Couturier can get ~50 points a year at age ~24-30 he will be one of the ~5 most valuable 2C's in the NHL.

 

[deadhead]

ES points should rate higher than PP points.

It's easier to find a guy who can score on the PP (Hartnell, Streit) than someone who can score ES. Someone who can do both, like Giroux, is priceless.

And someone like Couts, who excels on the PK and at ES, has more value, because he allows you to carry a forward who's primarily role is on the PP. Whereas many good PP scorers are good shooters with limited foot speed and defensive skills who can't play the PK and are marginal at ES.