Salary cap crunch next year

[Hawkscap]

Bickell, Richards, Kruger and Oduya are that back breaking?

When you are replacing them with unproven NHL talent, they are a playoff team but significantly weaker than they are now.

 

[hawksrule]

Which creates a lineup that looks something like:

Saad Toews Hossa
Sharp Teravainen Kane
Versteeg Shaw McNeill
Ross Danault Smith

Keith Seabrook
Hjalmarsson TVR
Vet Min, Rundblad, Dahlbeck, Clendening, Erixon, whoever.

This may or may not be the reality, but that's not a good looking lineup. TT/McNeill/Ross/Danault/Dahlbeck/Clendening/TVR = seven rookies or sort of rookies, and not all promising rookies at that. Shaw should never again play center. And TT may or may not be ready for 2C duty.

 

[Kurtosis]

Well, I'm not the one claiming Saad is going to get offersheeted, and I'm not the one claiming he's getting 4 per.

No, you're the one claiming there are plenty of better UFA's out there.

I'm also not the one claiming he will get tendered an offer sheet. I've also made no claim on what he will be paid.

 

[Hawksfan2828]

You honestly think that team would be 2011 bad? Bickell, Richards, Kruger and Oduya are that back breaking?

Oduya certainly is and Kruger isn't too shabby either.

Not to mention the inexperience that replaces them would certainly hurt especially on defense.

If Keith, Seabrook or Hammer got injured the Hawks would be really up creek...

Interestingly enough we're pretty deep and D when it comes to prospects but few are NHL ready and Rundblad sucks - he should be traded for a vet.

Pokka has plenty of potential, I'd really like to see him get an opportunity over Rundblad.

Clendenning should also get a shot over Rundblad.

 

[Taze em]

When you are replacing them with unproven NHL talent, they are a playoff team but significantly weaker than they are now.

This may or may not be the reality, but that's not a good looking lineup. TT/McNeill/Ross/Danault/Dahlbeck/Clendening/TVR = seven rookies or sort of rookies, and not all promising rookies at that. Shaw should never again play center. And TT may or may not be ready for 2C duty.

I wouldn't call Teravainen or TVR rookies. So 5 rookies. The could vring back Erixon and Rundblad and make it 0 rookies on defense (Keith, Seabrook, Hjal, TVR, Rundy, Erixon).

@ forward there are 3 rookies, one of whom could easily be replaced by the Carcillo du Jour or a cup gunner.

I don't think that roster looks bad at all.

 

[Taze em]

But then again I didn't expect the Hawks to contend next season, I'm very pleasantly surprised by that roster and think it is absolutely a playoff roster.

 

[Hawkscap]

If Rundy and Erixon is your 3rd pair, Keith and Seabrook will be logging 30 mins a night,

 

[Hawksfan2828]

No, you're the one claiming there are plenty of better UFA's out there.

I'm also not the one claiming he will get tendered an offer sheet. I've also made no claim on what he will be paid.

You said Pittsburgh, and said "you can swap Saad with Bickell (which isn't unreasonable but every dollar matters)".

I'm asserting that Saad can be replaced by a free agent, however his potential cant and his ceiling cant.

IMO, Havlat could replace Saad for a year and that's all that would be needed because they cap will go up significantly eventually.

Either way Saad isn't getting an offersheet, so this argument isn't even worth debating.

 

[Taze em]

If Rundy and Erixon is your 3rd pair, Keith and Seabrook will be logging 30 mins a night,

why?

Rundblad has been good and Erixon is average. Really missing Roszival, huh? Team looks fine, can find a cheap veteran or 2 to plug holes prospects aren't.

100 pt team for sure.

 

[CourtneyDagger50]

You said Pittsburgh, and said "you can swap Saad with Bickell (which isn't unreasonable but every dollar matters)".

I'm asserting that Saad can be replaced by a free agent, however his potential cant and his ceiling cant.

IMO, Havlat could replace Saad for a year and that's all that would be needed because they cap will go up significantly eventually.

Either way Saad isn't getting an offersheet, so this argument isn't even worth debating.

The hell are you smoking?

 

[Hawkscap]

IMO, Havlat could replace Saad for a year and that's all that would be needed because they cap will go up significantly eventually.

.

Wow, just wow.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

why?

Rundblad has been good and Erixon is average. Really missing Roszival, huh? Team looks fine, can find a cheap veteran or 2 to plug holes prospects aren't.

100 pt team for sure.

Because Q gonna Q.

 

[Kurtosis]

You said Pittsburgh, and said "you can swap Saad with Bickell (which isn't unreasonable but every dollar matters)".

I'm asserting that Saad can be replaced by a free agent, however his potential cant and his ceiling cant.

IMO, Havlat could replace Saad for a year and that's all that would be needed because they cap will go up significantly eventually.

Either way Saad isn't getting an offersheet, so this argument isn't even worth debating.

Well...you're certainly entitled to your opinion.

I never said anything about Bickell and Saad.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

You said Pittsburgh, and said "you can swap Saad with Bickell (which isn't unreasonable but every dollar matters)".

I'm asserting that Saad can be replaced by a free agent, however his potential cant and his ceiling cant.

IMO, Havlat could replace Saad for a year and that's all that would be needed because they cap will go up significantly eventually.

Either way Saad isn't getting an offersheet, so this argument isn't even worth debating.

Havlat hasn't broken thirty points or fifty games played in four years.

 

[hawksrule]

Havlat hasn't broken thirty points or fifty games played in four years.

Doesn't mean anything, what's his corsi?

 

[CourtneyDagger50]

Doesn't mean anything, what's his corsi?

OKay, youve got to be joking now.

 

[LordKOTL]

The thing about Saad's next deal is that the actual cap is going to come into play at least somewhat.

If the cap is lower than expected, like 71M or lower, it's going to affect every team, not just the 'hawks, and will drive prices down overall because there's less "cap inflation". The lower the cap ceiling, the less teams that will be able to afford him, and those that can will likely be bottom feeders if Saad is looking for money *now*.

Now assuming it's a bridge deal, that would be about 3 years playing for a team like Edmonton, Arizona, Buffalo, or Carolina. Now, do you really think Saad is going to flourish in those systems? Probably not. He's not going to have the likes of Toews or Hossa feeding him. He may be a standout on that team, but his numbers may very well suffer a bit as he'd need to carry that team. After that then what? He may not command that much more once he's UFA.

Meanwhile if he accepts less on the 'hawks, He's likley going to have the likes of at least Toews and Kane, if not Sharp and Hossa feeding him. His numbers should inflate and he's not going to be expected to cary the team (That duty is will be reserved for those making 10.5M). Once he's a UFA he can then cash out bigtime--especially if he's a 30G/60+Pt scorer.

At least that's how I see it. I figure for the 'hawks if we ditch bickell with no salary coming back and sign Saad to 4M it still works. If he goes less it's money.

 

[Hawkscap]

Here is Bettman's quote, note that he is assuming the NHLPA is using the 5% escalator

Commissioner Gary Bettman said during his state of the league address on Saturday that salary cap likely would fall from the original $73 million projection, but not precipitously. It's $69 million this season.

"At 82 cents for the rest of the year, the cap would be 72.2, and at 80 cents, the cap would be 71.7," he said. "These are not in the context of a $70 million-plus cap dramatic numbers. As of Friday, I think the Canadian dollar was 81 cents. Nobody can project exactly where it's going, but the point that I'm making is you're not going to see a dramatic difference."

 

[Hawkaholic]

Not sure if it was mentioned here yesterday, but

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie · 18h18 hours ago
NHL escrow rate for 3rd quarter of season jumps to 16 per cent. It had been at 14 per cent in each of first two quarters.

Larry Brooks @NYP_Brooksie
· 18h 18 hours ago
No one should make mistake of assuming NHLPA will vote for 5 pct. escalator. Cap could indeed go down if union vote hinges on escrow issue.

 

[Taze em]

If the escalator isn't used I don't even know if there are enough non-cap spending teams on budgets to take on all the capocalypse contracts from the big cap teams.

It would be the most insane offseason in NHL history.

 

[Hawkscap]

If the escalator isn't used I don't even know if there are enough non-cap spending teams on budgets to take on all the capocalypse contracts from the big cap teams.

It would be the most insane offseason in NHL history.

or a lot of 20 man rosters and UFAs taking cheap one way year deals.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

If you are happy with what the 2011 team did, you should be happy.
Now sign Kruger and Oduya for $2 mil a piece and see what the last 6 spots get.

Pisani 2.0 6 spots with a $500k avg.

Hawks will be more like 2011-12 Hawks for a year or two not the 10-11 team after this summer

It is the price of success. A few years of kids sinking or swimming and rebuilding depth is how Hawks will have to operate for coming years

Team will still be playoff team and threat in West even with kids in 2015 and 2016

 

[Hawkaholic]

Line up will be probably be looking like this

Saad Toews Hossa
Versteeg TT Kane
VET Shaw McNeill
VET (Carcillo type) Danault Nordstrom
VET

Keith Seabrook
Hjalmarsson VET
TVR Rundblad
VET

Crawford
Raanta or Darling

Vets will be cheap, and may spend 1-2mil on our #4.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

I'd think that if we're moving out Bickell Kruger Smith and Sharp we'd be getting back at least a couple NHL bodies.

 

[Taze em]

On MvsW today Marek said some analysts are predicting a $.63 canadian dollar in the next two years. If true, it's hard to argue against this being our last contending season for a long time.

Enjoy while it lasts, I guess. Sigh.