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Salary cap crunch next year

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Kurtosis

Kurtosis

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May 26, 2010
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Taze em said:
I don't think you understand the game theory element that goes into all this. I've tried to explain why offer sheeting Saad is a dumb idea, if you can't understand that's on you.

Saad will be a Blackhawk next season.
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I perfectly understand that element. What I am saying is that your calculations are not necessarily correct. If you cannot understand that, that's on you.

Saad will most likely be a Blackhawk next season. I'd put the chances at greater than 95%. That doesn't mean there is a sliver of a chance that he may not be, something you refuse to admit as a possible scenario for god knows what reason.

And just to add...my whole contention is that an offer sheet is possible, not that Saad will necessary sign it or that he will not be on the team next season.
 
Taze em

Taze em

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Apr 20, 2012
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Kurtosis said:
I perfectly understand that element. What I am saying is that your calculations are not necessarily correct. If you cannot understand that, that's on you.

Saad will most likely be a Blackhawk next season. I'd put the chances at greater than 95%. That doesn't mean there is a sliver of a chance that he may not be, something you refuse to admit as a possible scenario for god knows what reason.
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Walk me through what has happened for Stan to say "wow, i guess we'll take that offer sheet, cya Brandon". I'm genuinely curious.
 
Taze em

Taze em

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Kurtosis said:
Try this on for size...I said that the possibility of an offer sheet is real. Read the actual content of my posts.
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You said that there is a 95% chance Saad is on the Hawks next year. What has to happen for that 5% to come true? That's my question.

And can someone please tell me why all these players far better than Brandon Saad have not been offer sheeted in the last 5-10 years?
 

Hawksfan2828

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Mar 1, 2007
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Hawkscap said:
Pittsburgh


A SIGNED offer sheet are rare. However, it doesn't mean that are not in play and uses in negotiation. Hammer's agent thought Stan was low balling him so he went and got an offer sheet.

A $3.4- $5 mil offer sheet =1st and a 3rd.
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That was Doug Wilson playing games (or being smart).. He wanted Neimi or Hammer, so he hit Hammer with an offersheet forcing Bowman to choose one or the other. If Wilson didn't offersheet Hammer the Hawks would have kept both.

The Hawks aren't even in that position this time, and the offer it would take for the Hawks to walk away would be substantial (5 per) which would cost a team a lot in compensation (a 1st, 2nd and 3rd I believe).

Now does a team want to pay Saad 5 million per AND lose a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick?

Especially when they can get a guy like Richards (who is similar) right now for free at a similar cap hit?
 
Kurtosis

Kurtosis

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May 26, 2010
25,363
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The Village Within the City
Taze em said:
You said that there is a 95% chance Saad is on the Hawks next year. What has to happen for that 5% to come true? That's my question.

And can someone please tell me why all these players far better than Brandon Saad have not been offer sheeted in the last 5-10 years?
Click to expand...

I don't know, the fact that anything can happen in an extremely fluid league? Sorry I don't see this situation in absolute shades of black and white like you do. I cannot help myself I suppose.

Shea Weber got an offer sheet. Ryan O'Reilly got an offer sheet. It happens (albeit infrequently). Fortunately one would suppose Stan is prepared for such an event to happen and is not neglecting the possibility.
 

Hawksfan2828

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Mar 1, 2007
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Libertyville, IL
Taze em said:
You said that there is a 95% chance Saad is on the Hawks next year. What has to happen for that 5% to come true? That's my question.

And can someone please tell me why all these players far better than Brandon Saad have not been offer sheeted in the last 5-10 years?
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Because teams cant afford the compensation, not to mention the cap hit.

A 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks + 5 per is a lot for a player.

I could see a team offersheeting a player they view as a franchise player, however we all know those type of players don't even sniff the market and are all signed to extensions way before their contracts are up.
 
Hawkscap

Hawkscap

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Jan 22, 2007
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Kurtosis said:
The whole bit about me not understanding game theory was cute though, I must admit.
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I too must have missed those game theory lessons while getting my Economics degree and then 20+ years behind a trading desk.

If Stan's top is $3 mil dollars, Saad should shop for offer sheets. In fact, he would be stupid not to.

BTW.
Just remember what Stan said about Hammer getting an offer sheet.

San Jose was incredibly smart with the Hammer than Niemi move. Hawks will likely be in that situation again especially if they match


$5 mil offer sheet is a 1st and 3rd only. Cheap for Saad.

And Saad has said wait til summer for his next contract.

"He wanted to wait until the summer, which is his right," Bowman told the Tribune. "We certainly want to get him signed and I expect to, but you respect that. He's a very big part of this. He's a great young player and he's just kind of coming into his own this year."
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Taze em

Taze em

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Hawkscap said:
I too must have missed those game theory lessons while getting my Economics degree and then 20+ years behind a trading desk.

If Stan's top is $3 mil dollars, Saad should shop for offer sheets. In fact, he would be stupid not to.

BTW.
Just remember what Stan said about Hammer getting an offer sheet.

San Jose was incredibly smart with the Hammer than Niemi move. Hawks will likely be in that situation again especially if they match


$5 mil offer sheet is a 1st and 3rd only. Cheap for Saad.

And Saad has said wait til summer for his next contract.
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The Hawks are not in the same situation at all. That was a closed loop, a discrete choice between the two. That doesn't exist this time around. There are many directions the Hawks can go to clean up their cap sheet.

If you are Pittsburgh you need to hang onto your first 3 picks through the TDL, find the cap space (meaning don't resign one or both of Martin/Ehrhoff), convince Saad to sign your offersheet for $5+M, be willing to give up a whole draft for Brandon Saad (debatable), and once all that's done....

The Hawks will match and you will be out of the running and have a hole. The Hawks will have to deal a wing to accommodate your Charlie Kelly "WILDCARD!" move, and you won't be in the running to get that player. Great job there Pens.

That is like 8 different independent decisions that need to be made by 3 parties to actually have an OS hit. BTW, why stop at Saad? Tarasenko is a wing available for an Offer Sheet this summer. Go crazy! Offersheet Pearson and Toffolli in LA while you're at it.
 

Hawksfan2828

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Mar 1, 2007
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Libertyville, IL
Hawkscap said:
I too must have missed those game theory lessons while getting my Economics degree and then 20+ years behind a trading desk.

If Stan's top is $3 mil dollars, Saad should shop for offer sheets. In fact, he would be stupid not to.

BTW.
Just remember what Stan said about Hammer getting an offer sheet.

San Jose was incredibly smart with the Hammer than Niemi move. Hawks will likely be in that situation again especially if they match


$5 mil offer sheet is a 1st and 3rd only. Cheap for Saad.

And Saad has said wait til summer for his next contract.
Click to expand...

No team is going to give up a top 15 pick and a 3rd for Saad - not to mention a 5 per cap hit.

The only teams that have the cap space to offersheet him don't have the farm to justify losing a 1st and 3rd.

Not to mention no team in their right mind is going to throw 5 million per at Saad - that is just crazy stuff.

The reason why we rarely see high dollar offersheets is because they're just not viable or worth it for a team.
 
Taze em

Taze em

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Kurtosis said:
I love that people are stuck on the notion that the offer sheet necessarily needs to be $5 million or more per year.
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If it's less there is really no point to doing it. Saad is going to make 3, 3.5 on a bridge deal without an offer sheet. Signing him for years and less than 5 and you are doing the Hawks a favor.
 

Hawksfan2828

Registered User
Mar 1, 2007
13,437
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Libertyville, IL
Taze em said:
The Hawks are not in the same situation at all. That was a closed loop, a discrete choice between the two. That doesn't exist this time around. There are many directions the Hawks can go to clean up their cap sheet.

If you are Pittsburgh you need to hang onto your first 3 picks through the TDL, find the cap space (meaning don't resign one or both of Martin/Ehrhoff), convince Saad to sign your offersheet for $5+M, be willing to give up a whole draft for Brandon Saad (debatable), and once all that's done....

The Hawks will match and you will be out of the running and have a hole. The Hawks will have to deal a wing to accommodate your Charlie Kelly "WILDCARD!" move, and you won't be in the running to get that player. Great job there Pens.

That is like 8 different independent decisions that need to be made by 3 parties to actually have an OS hit. BTW, why stop at Saad? Tarasenko is a wing available for an Offer Sheet this summer. Go crazy! Offersheet Pearson and Toffolli in LA while you're at it.
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Yep... Why go after Saad when Tarasenko could be offersheeted?

Of course that alone is going to limit Saads leverage.

IMO, IDK if Saad is arbitration eligible, it sounds as if he may be which could be the reason why he is waiting. He wants to play out the season, see what the Hawks offer after that and if he's not pleased he could take it to arbitration.
 

Hawksfan2828

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Libertyville, IL
Kurtosis said:
I love that people are stuck on the notion that the offer sheet necessarily needs to be $5 million or more per year.
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The Hawks would match anything up to 4 and Saad isn't even worth 5 IMO.

The compensation of anything over 5 is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks.

Let me ask you this - would you pay Saad 5 per and also give up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick(s)?

A team would have to overpay Saad and give up all those picks just to get him - how could a GM justify that?

Sure a GM could justify it if he could justify labeling Saad as a potential franchise player, however in reality Saad is just an Andrew Ladd with a little more potential.
 
Taze em

Taze em

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Apr 20, 2012
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This offseason is going to be crazy on this board. Batten down the hatches.
 
Kurtosis

Kurtosis

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May 26, 2010
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Hawksfan2828 said:
The Hawks would match anything up to 4 and Saad isn't even worth 5 IMO.

The compensation of anything over 5 is a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks.

Let me ask you this - would you pay Saad 5 per and also give up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick(s)?

A team would have to overpay Saad and give up all those picks just to get him - how could a GM justify that?

Sure a GM could justify it if he could justify labeling Saad as a potential franchise player, however in reality Saad is just an Andrew Ladd with a little more potential.
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Notwithstanding your evaluation (which I think is poorly phrased), yes I would give up a 1st and 2nd for him. People value picks way too much on this site (especially ones slotted where Pittsburgh will be picking). Pittsburgh has already shown the proclivity to move picks so I wouldn't for a second believe they wouldn't be willing to pull the trigger on this type of move.

There also seems to be a gap between 4 and 5.
 
Taze em

Taze em

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Apr 20, 2012
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Kurtosis said:
Why is that?
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Every rumor will be Hawks, Bruins or LA related. There will be endless trade talks surrounding Seabrook, Bickell and Sharp. Maybe Shaw as well.

There will be endless Saad negotiation/arbitration/offer sheet mania.
 
Hawkscap

Hawkscap

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Jan 22, 2007
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Saad sign OS for $4 or $5 mil . Now go put that in next year's cap numbers.
Trade Bickell and you still have a problem on your hands.


$5 mil offer sheet = 1st and 3rd

which will go actually a bit higher for next year.
 
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