The Messenger said:
This is a Top 50 list and discussion and other prospects aside .. he is being compared favourably to Madden and Brind'Amour in this thread ..while that is lofty praise for an unproven player .. lets say that is his projection possibility ... Does that make him a top XXX player?? ... If you did a TOP 50 NHL list or even TOP 75 would either Brind'Amour or Madden make the list ?? and does that detract from their abilities and contributions to their team ???
I agree with you on the one thing that his offensive abilities have not developed ..but I have said that many times before he is being rushed fast through all levels of play at the expense possible of his offensive development and based more on his Defensive and Size ... Realistically like most College drafted kids .. Kesler could in fact now still be in his 3rd year at Ohio State University .. and how that excelled rush up the ranks will effect him long term is anyone's guess ... but he would be going against the odds of a player that was not offensive at the junior ranks and became a solid offensive player at the NHL level ..
Look at Madden and Brind'Amour's resume look like
Madden had 4 years at U. of Michigan producing very impressive numbers and 2 more in the AHL before making the jump to the NHL ..
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/...y.php3?pid=3313
Brind'Amour may have a closer track path to Kesler having only played 1 year at Michigan State University .. before making the jump .. but in a 1 to 1 comparison to Brind'Amour College and 1st NHL season .. you see completely different results ..
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/...ay.php3?pid=576
Can Kesler now at higher levels develop that skill or will he remain forever an 3rd line center like he was at Ohio State University.. ??
Anybody's guess but being realistic it may not happen either ...
Not a bad analysis at all, except on a couple of points:
1.) If any player on the top xxx list projected to be equivalent to Brindy, Ricci, Madden, or peca, they should be in the top 20 no matter what year it is. i look back at even THN's lists from year's past and they were lucky to have even hadhalf of their top prospects make the NHL. When you see a guy you know for sure is going to make the league, and still has a pretty good ceiling as Kesler does, with his intangibles, you have to account for that somehow. Not sure any of us have come up with a solution for that problem yet. Top end potential is not a good comparative for ranking prospects though. I think realistic expectation is. I have said it before and I will say it again, any prospect ranking should try to project what the player is most likely going to become. I may infurate many when I say that I think Stewart is the second coming of Mike Grier, but that is a lot more realistic than comparing him to Todd Bertuzzi.
2.) Here are the numbers from the rest of Brindy's teammates that year. I think the point I want to make is pretty clear.
Bobby Reynolds................................ 47 36 41 77 78
Kip Miller.................................... 47 32 45 77 94
Danton Cole................................... 47 29 33 62 46
Pat Murray.................................... 46 21 41 62 65
Rod Brind'Amour............................... 42 27 32 59 63
Steve Beadle.................................. 46 14 40 54 35
Peter White................................... 46 20 33 53 17
Shawn Heaphy.................................. 47 26 17 43 80
Dwayne Norris................................. 47 16 23 39 40
Jason Woolley................................. 47 12 25 37 26
Brad Hamilton................................. 47 9 20 29 86
Kerry Russell................................. 46 5 23 28 50
Chris Luongo.................................. 47 4 21 25 42
Don Gibson.................................... 39 7 10 17 107
Walt Bartels.................................. 45 5 9 14 12
Jim Cummins................................... 36 3 9 12 100
Joby Messier.................................. 46 2 10 12 70
Mark Hirth.................................... 40 6 1 7 8
Mike O'Toole.................................. 24 3 1 4 28
Jason Muzzatti (G)............................ 42 0 3 3 35
Mike Gilmore (G).............................. 3 0 1 1 2
Chris Marshall................................ 7 0 1 1 11
Jamie Stewart (G)............................. 5 0 0 0 0
Doug Collins.................................. 5 0 0 0 0
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Totals 277 439 716 1095
Compare that to OSU's stats in Kesler's year (a pretty darn good team):
R.J. Umberger................................. 43 26 27 53 16
9 Scott May..................................... 43 10 25 35 56
27 Paul Caponigri................................ 42 10 22 32 73
17 Ryan Kesler................................... 40 11 20 31 44
77 Doug Andress.................................. 43 7 16 23 26
11 Daymen Bencharski............................. 42 10 9 19 56
39 Dave Steckel.................................. 36 10 8 18 50
20 Miguel LaFleche............................... 43 10 8 18 10
12 Dan Knapp..................................... 17 6 12 18 14
73 J.B. Bittner.................................. 43 7 10 17 32
16 Chris Olsgard................................. 43 8 5 13 46
10 Rod Pelley.................................... 43 8 3 11 26
2 Nathan Guenin................................. 42 2 9 11 75
44 Eric Skaug.................................... 40 0 10 10 43
7 Peter Broccoli................................ 41 0 9 9 36
5 Scott Titus................................... 43 1 6 7 30
24 Lee Spector................................... 35 2 3 5 10
18 Luke Pavlas................................... 30 0 5 5 27
3 Reed Whiting.................................. 42 0 4 4 30
26 T.J. Latorre.................................. 12 1 1 2 8
34 Mike Betz (G)................................. 36 0 1 1 0
14 Ryan Smith.................................... 1 0 0 0 0
25 Jack Popiel................................... 2 0 0 0 0
8 Thomas Welsh.................................. 6 0 0 0 0
Dave Caruso (G)............................... 8 0 0 0 0
Bench 9 10
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Totals 129 213 342 718
Goal scoring was less than half of Michigan's output, which is pretty reflective of the change that has taken place in every single league in North America over that time span.