Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Will Kane Want to Re-Sign Here?

[Mr Positive]

Don't think that's going to happen. Sharks don't want to give Kane a cent. They want his contract voided period. If the Sharks were to trade his contact to Edmonton they're surely not going to retain nothing. Maybe even ask for a late pick or mid prospect. Kane's next contract maybe worth as much or more per year than his Sharks contract is. Sharks will fight to tooth and nail to keep Kane off their cap going forward.

There's also that Russian coming over who is supposedly a big deal. Kuzmenko

People are saying that the Canucks are favorites but the fact nothing was done yet tells me that that's not so true or at least overstated. So that's potentially a mature first line talent on an ELC

 

[OfCorsiDid]

Ho hum just another waste of a promising asset

Flushing another 3rd round pick.

Holland really does like throwing 2nd and 3rd round picks in the bin.

 

[soothsayer]

Don't think that's going to happen. Sharks don't want to give Kane a cent. They want his contract voided period. If the Sharks were to trade his contact to Edmonton they're surely not going to retain nothing. Maybe even ask for a late pick or mid prospect. Kane's next contract maybe worth as much or more per year than his Sharks contract is. Sharks will fight to tooth and nail to keep Kane off their cap going forward.

They aren't going to have any say in the matter if they lose the arbitration case. If they wrongly terminated the contract, then they are going to have to pay a penalty, and that will obviously include a cap consequence.

 

[Mr Positive]

Flushing another 3rd round pick.

Holland really does like throwing 2nd and 3rd round picks in the bin.

This is true but he also gained a 3rd by trading down for Bourgault. Bourgault seems like a good pick so that helped. But mostly I agree with the previous poster that the important thing is keeping the 1sts. For a team like ours that is uncommon and it has resulted in a prospect pool that will be giving us steady help in the coming years with cheap ELCs.

3rds and 4ths are not that valuable anyway. The concerning losses are all the 2nds. But again, we as fans put a lot of pressure on whoever is GM to load up this team for McDavid and Drai to maximize the short term

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Flushing another 3rd round pick.

Holland really does like throwing 2nd and 3rd round picks in the bin.

Another gold star for Dustin Schwartz as well.

 

[TheNumber4]

Don't think that's going to happen. Sharks don't want to give Kane a cent. They want his contract voided period. If the Sharks were to trade his contact to Edmonton they're surely not going to retain nothing. Maybe even ask for a late pick or mid prospect. Kane's next contract maybe worth as much or more per year than his Sharks contract is. Sharks will fight to tooth and nail to keep Kane off their cap going forward.

Sharks can want whatever they want. The arbitrator is going to determine where this heads for the most part.

 

[Fourier]

Heading back to the KHL could be risky. That league could have some serious financial issues.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Flushing another 3rd round pick.

Holland really does like throwing 2nd and 3rd round picks in the bin.

The Oilers organization have burned 9 draft picks (10 actually with a move-up to draft at least one goaltender) over the past eleven years playing the lottery attempting to find an NHL goaltender prospect. That's a lot of draft collateral thrown at finding a needle in a draft haystack. Greater likelihood to find a depth positional player mid/late draft. Pedigree goaltenders first round and high second cover their investment quite well relative to forwards and defense prospects.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Don't think that's going to happen. Sharks don't want to give Kane a cent. They want his contract voided period. If the Sharks were to trade his contact to Edmonton they're surely not going to retain nothing. Maybe even ask for a late pick or mid prospect. Kane's next contract maybe worth as much or more per year than his Sharks contract is. Sharks will fight to tooth and nail to keep Kane off their cap going forward.

Great. Let them lose the hearing and be on hook for the full salary minus what the Oilers pay. Then we can pay Kane 750k for the next 3 years and they can pay him 6.25 million.

I think the sense now is that the Sharks may well lose the arbitration in which case they would be potentially on the hook for the full value of the contract. A settlement avoids this.

Kane has a very limited no trade clause which mean there are only three teams he can be traded to. So it's not like SJ has a lot of options if the contract is reinstated. The may have to go the buyout route which would cost them twice as much as my proposal.

Screw settling. Have Katz get Kane the best lawyer possible and f*** San Jose up.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

The Oilers organization have burned 9 draft picks (10 actually with a move-up to draft at least one goaltender) over the past eleven years playing the lottery attempting to find an NHL goaltender prospect. That's a lot of draft collateral thrown at finding a needle in a draft haystack. Greater likelihood to find a depth positional player mid/late draft. Pedigree goaltenders first round and high second cover their investment quite well relative to forwards and defense prospects.

The thing with elite goalies is you almost always have to draft and develop them and then you gotta sign them. The only goalies that go to UFA are unproven players or those already in decline, and most goalies that hit the trade block are backups looking for an opportunity or expiring deals. Also goalies at the draft are notoriously voodoo, 1st and 2nd round picks included, there are a lot more high caliber low drafted goalies than you'd think.

I think this is a fair list for 10 most valuable goaltending assets who've made the NHL (not in order): Shesterkin, Sorokin, Saros, Vasilevskiy, Demko, Oettinger, Swayman, Hellebuyck, Knight, Andersen? idk it kinda falls off after this.

Of that list, the only players picked in the 1st or 2nd round are Vasi, Demko, Oettinger, and Knight, the latter who isn't even an established starter yet, lots and lots of 3rd/4th round pick type guys. Flipping a lottery tickets each year with goalies is the right approach, 4th round picks aren't likely to become full time NHLers anyway. The question is whether or not we can develop them, and considering we have Dustin Schwartz the answer to that is probably no.

 

[MettleMcOiler]

The Oilers organization have burned 9 draft picks (10 actually with a move-up to draft at least one goaltender) over the past eleven years playing the lottery attempting to find an NHL goaltender prospect. That's a lot of draft collateral thrown at finding a needle in a draft haystack. Greater likelihood to find a depth positional player mid/late draft. Pedigree goaltenders first round and high second cover their investment quite well relative to forwards and defense prospects.

I think the oilers organization should do a thorough examination of every NHL teams goalie development pipeline and look at what has been successful and rebuild the Oilers goalie pipeline with the information.
It doesn't really make sense to have so many goalie prospects fall through.
A good organization should be able to develop at least an average NHL starter with mid to late round picks every 5 years.

Always hoping to draft a 1st round goaltender that could be the next Carey Price is a bit of wishful thinking.
But even if you do draft a 1st round goaltender. The prospect should have all the tools to develop into a NHL starter.
But I really do think it depends on each organizations development system.
The fact Skinner is on the cusp is more of a indication of the player himself that worked hard for his growth.
We' have to wait and see with Rodrigue, he has tools and Fanti looks very promising.

Oilers always seem to look outside for a goaltending solution but even then the goaltenders that can actually play are older and we usually have to start the whole cycle again looking for another starter in 2-3 years.

Watching as a fan, it drives up the wall the lack of competence in this area because it's been such a important position that Oilers never took seriously. At least it felt like that as fan.
I don't know what they need to do to invest for better goalie development, that's not my job, but results speak for themselves. So, if they keep having problems with goalie prospects becoming at least NHL Starters or at least NHL caliber back up.

Then it probably shouldn't be blamed on the players but how the development system in place that is failing them.

 

[soothsayer]

Not the worst decision by Konovalov. He's sitting firmly behind Skinner and probably behind Fanti as well, who the Oilers just signed. Either he makes, what, $80,000 playing in Bakersfield with no clear path to an NHL job, or hundreds of thousands playing in his home country, where he probably has as much of a shot ultimately making it to the NHL as he does playing in Bakersfield.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The thing with elite goalies is you almost always have to draft and develop them and then you gotta sign them. The only goalies that go to UFA are unproven players or those already in decline, and most goalies that hit the trade block are backups looking for an opportunity or expiring deals. Also goalies at the draft are notoriously voodoo, 1st and 2nd round picks included, there are a lot more high caliber low drafted goalies than you'd think.

I think this is a fair list for 10 most valuable goaltending assets who've made the NHL (not in order): Shesterkin, Sorokin, Saros, Vasilevskiy, Demko, Oettinger, Swayman, Hellebuyck, Knight, Andersen? idk it kinda falls off after this.

Of that list, the only players picked in the 1st or 2nd round are Vasi, Demko, Oettinger, and Knight, the latter who isn't even an established starter yet, lots and lots of 3rd/4th round pick type guys. Flipping a lottery tickets each year with goalies is the right approach, 4th round picks aren't likely to become full time NHLers anyway. The question is whether or not we can develop them, and considering we have Dustin Schwartz the answer to that is probably no.

I don't buy the goalies are voodoo premise which gets vastly overblown. Goaltenders are most definitely inter-dependedly tied to the quality or not of team in front of them. Schucker's study albeit a bit dated reinforce the success of first round goalies is not far off those picks used on forwards or defensemen (especially once you get out of about the top 10 picks of every draft) https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

A Recent History of Drafted Goaltenders

In the last 20 years, scouting has come a long way and draft picks are...

canucksarmy.com

We're seeing with more frequency high pedigree goalies bend the curve in getting to the NHL earlier and not requiring the long, extended minor pro or European development cycle perceived as a barrier to investing in draft collateral. Carter Hart is another young, established NHL tender not on your list. Yzerman, a smart GM who's been a Cup winning builder, just invested a mid-first round pick in their rebuild phase in Cossa to position itself with a prospective elite goaltender as the team begins to look to move into its competitive phase. Minnesota with Waldstadt who is coming to North America this year.

Regarding Schwartz, I have an incomplete view of the totality of his work. Hard to make chicken salad when your organization opts for an ancient 'battler' and another thirty-plus KHL graduate, both fully formed in their games and technique. As he's worked with Skinner, the lone organizational hope, from the player's young amateur age through junior, AHL development and cup of coffee NHL work, there would seem to be some credibility to Schwartz's work ... he's taken one of 9 wasted draft picks farther than anyone else.

There's a couple ways to address organizational goaltending quality. Draft high pedigree goalies or play spin to win throwing a volume approach like the Oilers have done. The opportunity cost is you lose a higher likelihood of finding support organizational forward or defense depth guys when you opt for volume over quality. Miss and your in the situation Edmonton is paying for old talent with a questionable succession plan just as this team's elites enter prime years.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I think the oilers organization should do a thorough examination of every NHL teams goalie development pipeline and look at what has been successful and rebuild the Oilers goalie pipeline with the information.
It doesn't really make sense to have so many goalie prospects fall through.
A good organization should be able to develop at least an average NHL starter with mid to late round picks every 5 years.

Always hoping to draft a 1st round goaltender that could be the next Carey Price is a bit of wishful thinking.
But even if you do draft a 1st round goaltender. The prospect should have all the tools to develop into a NHL starter.
But I really do think it depends on each organizations development system.
The fact Skinner is on the cusp is more of a indication of the player himself that worked hard for his growth.
We' have to wait and see with Rodrigue, he has tools and Fanti looks very promising.

Oilers always seem to look outside for a goaltending solution but even then the goaltenders that can actually play are older and we usually have to start the whole cycle again looking for another starter in 2-3 years.

Watching as a fan, it drives up the wall the lack of competence in this area because it's been such a important position that Oilers never took seriously. At least it felt like that as fan.
I don't know what they need to do to invest for better goalie development, that's not my job, but results speak for themselves. So, if they keep having problems with goalie prospects becoming at least NHL Starters or at least NHL caliber back up.

Then it probably shouldn't be blamed on the players but how the development system in place that is failing them.

Agree, it is Fool's Gold if teams expect a Carey Price level career out of a first round pick used on a goaltender. But when you look at solving your most critical position for five or more years utilizing a first or higher second round pick, that stability created enables focus to build out other positional areas vital to the lifeblood of successful organizations (either as future cost effective cap support for their organization or trade chips to address organizational gaps).

Beyond first round goaltenders already mentioned in this thread, here's some NHL starting goaltenders taken with first or high second round picks: Blackwood, Markstrom, Hart, Gibson, Samsonov, Jarry, Nedeljkovic, Lehner, Campbell, Demko, Varlamov.

Drafting goaltenders is not easy. I think a significant undervalue aspect (at least historically) has been the unseen mental strength and resiliency to play the game's most difficult position. The psychological aspect of identifying goaltender potential to succeed and thrive at the apex level of competition is vital imo. Raw physical attributes are easy to see. Technique as well but coachability , willingness and hunger to learn, aptitude to thrive under pressure and resilience to overcome adversity.

Oiler wise, Skinner looks to have potential to become an NHL back-up with maybe over time to be a starter. I'd like to know more about his playoff series against Stockton before thinking he's ready and anointed an NHL back-up job next year. A homegrown draft and development success would be great for this organization. However this is a team firmly in its prospective playoff winning window and I'm dubious of a Smith Skinner pairing backstopping them to ultimate success. Rodrigue and Fanti are still 'suspects' to me, unproven at the AHL level. Historically, the Oilers' two first round picks on goalies had long, largely successful NHL career.

As for the development side, I think if fans want to believe in Skinner, there's a case to believe in this organization's goalie coach who has taught the prospect from a young age through all stages of development including NHL games.

It's not an easy position to evaluate and project. But the reward relative to risk is well worth it imo. Without quality goaltender, a team is exceptionally challenged to win.

 

[McDNicks17]

The easiest way to improve goalie drafting is to not rely on the CHL so much like the Oilers have.

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

Sharks can want whatever they want. The arbitrator is going to determine where this heads for the most part.

I thought the arbitrator only says Kane wins or loses. If Kane wins he is a Shark
Then Sharks have control. End of story. That was my take on the situation. I think Kane has/had a 3 team trade list. Oilers, I doubt was one of them. The only way the Oilers get Kane maybe is if Kane loses the arbitration hearing. Then pay premium to sign him. Kane loses arbitration, then adds the Oilers to his trade list. Then Sharks could trade Kane, but they would asked more than just his 7m from they Oilers. They won't retain nothing. Could get ugly win or lose the arbitration hearing.

 

[Arpeggio]

I thought the arbitrator only says Kane wins or loses. If Kane wins he is a Shark
Then Sharks have control. End of story. That was my take on the situation. I think Kane has/had a 3 team trade list. Oilers, I doubt was one of them. The only way the Oilers get Kane maybe is if Kane loses the arbitration hearing. Then pay premium to sign him. Kane loses arbitration, then adds the Oilers to his trade list. Then Sharks could trade Kane, but they would asked more than just his 7m from they Oilers. They won't retain nothing. Could get ugly win or lose the arbitration hearing.

Kane won't be a Shark, they'll just owe Kane money.

 

[MettleMcOiler]

The easiest way to improve goalie drafting is to not rely on the CHL so much like the Oilers have.

Also, sounds like the CHL needs to upgrade their goalie development system.
I wonder what the euros are doing that seems to work so well.

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

Kane won't be a Shark, they'll just owe Kane money.

Not what, I understand Kane wins and the termination of his contract is also voided.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Not what, I understand Kane wins and the termination of his contract is also voided.

The article Fourier linked said that if Kane wins the hearing San Jose would be on the hook for anything less than 7 million that his new teams offers him (in which case we can just offer him league minimum for 3 years, then 7 million for 3 years after getting Kane for 3.875 million per year over 6 years while San Jose is on the hook for 18.75 million from 2022-2025),

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The easiest way to improve goalie drafting is to not rely on the CHL so much like the Oilers have.

There's a lot to unpack in that graphic. The development path is significantly different from CHL tenders who hit age 20 and then get thrown into NHL organization pro development at various levels. Euro tenders, NCAA all can percolate longer. I don't know the relative draft rankings of the various groups, though I suspect the high performing drafted from European pro leagues tend to be highly qualified, elite pedigree junior aged goaltenders who deliver to their projection.

Teams in 'early' in European markets and their goalie booms have done well with Finns, Russian, Latvian, and Swedish goaltenders under valued early. Solid risk reward to throw mid-round picks at goaltender prospects in these markets and hope they hit (New York Rangers an example). Second generation Russian tenders elevated to first round status as their predecessors proved out - both willingness to come to North American and NHL skills to play there. CHL tenders success rate gets pushed down given the high volume, easy mid-late round volume roll for teams, and pro development beginning earlier than other global league sources.

Oiler's volume, late pick strategy has had global failure with CHL, US college, Finland, Russia, Czechia. Their CHL misses are hardly over weighted in their selection and failure with this ill conceived volume strategy.

 

[Zerotonine]

Another gold star for Dustin Schwartz as well.

Wonder if it was Schwartz call to pass on Wallstedt

As much as I would like Kane to re-sign, I think Kulak might be the more important piece. Guy has looked fantastic and keeps getting better

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

I don't buy the goalies are voodoo premise which gets vastly overblown. Goaltenders are most definitely inter-dependedly tied to the quality or not of team in front of them. Schucker's study albeit a bit dated reinforce the success of first round goalies is not far off those picks used on forwards or defensemen (especially once you get out of about the top 10 picks of every draft) https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

A Recent History of Drafted Goaltenders

In the last 20 years, scouting has come a long way and draft picks are...

canucksarmy.com

We're seeing with more frequency high pedigree goalies bend the curve in getting to the NHL earlier and not requiring the long, extended minor pro or European development cycle perceived as a barrier to investing in draft collateral. Carter Hart is another young, established NHL tender not on your list. Yzerman, a smart GM who's been a Cup winning builder, just invested a mid-first round pick in their rebuild phase in Cossa to position itself with a prospective elite goaltender as the team begins to look to move into its competitive phase. Minnesota with Waldstadt who is coming to North America this year.

Regarding Schwartz, I have an incomplete view of the totality of his work. Hard to make chicken salad when your organization opts for an ancient 'battler' and another thirty-plus KHL graduate, both fully formed in their games and technique. As he's worked with Skinner, the lone organizational hope, from the player's young amateur age through junior, AHL development and cup of coffee NHL work, there would seem to be some credibility to Schwartz's work ... he's taken one of 9 wasted draft picks farther than anyone else.

There's a couple ways to address organizational goaltending quality. Draft high pedigree goalies or play spin to win throwing a volume approach like the Oilers have done. The opportunity cost is you lose a higher likelihood of finding support organizational forward or defense depth guys when you opt for volume over quality. Miss and your in the situation Edmonton is paying for old talent with a questionable succession plan just as this team's elites enter prime years.

First of all the reason I didn't list Carter Hart is I don't consider him a valuable goalie asset at the moment. His game fell apart last season (arguably the single worst performance from a starting goalie this past decade) and I don't think he's done enough to rebuild said value. For what it's worth the Oilers were likely to pick Cossa if Yzerman didn't trade up to cuck us, so the team WILL spend the premium draft capital on a goalie if they deem them good enough. They just didn't like Wallstedt for whatever reason. Heck Rodrigue was a 2nd round pick and he's tracking worse than the lower drafted Skinner.

We've had many goaltenders this past decade flounder under Schwartz to go on to see success elsewhere. Dubnyk is the one that hurts most since he was homegrown. Cam is another player who came from New York and had a solid first 2 years here before falling apart under Schwartz and getting "fixed" by Calgary and Minnesota after leaving us. Brossoit isn't anything special but did carve himself a nice niche as a NHL backup which is more than what could be said about his tenure with us.

 

[McDNicks17]

There's a lot to unpack in that graphic. The development path is significantly different from CHL tenders who hit age 20 and then get thrown into NHL organization pro development at various levels. Euro tenders, NCAA all can percolate longer. I don't know the relative draft rankings of the various groups, though I suspect the high performing drafted from European pro leagues tend to be highly qualified, elite pedigree junior aged goaltenders who deliver to their projection.

Teams in 'early' in European markets and their goalie booms have done well with Finns, Russian, Latvian, and Swedish goaltenders under valued early. Solid risk reward to throw mid-round picks at goaltender prospects in these markets and hope they hit (New York Rangers an example). Second generation Russian tenders elevated to first round status as their predecessors proved out - both willingness to come to North American and NHL skills to play there. CHL tenders success rate gets pushed down given the high volume, easy mid-late round volume roll for teams, and pro development beginning earlier than other global league sources.

Oiler's volume, late pick strategy has had global failure with CHL, US college, Finland, Russia, Czechia. Their CHL misses are hardly over weighted in their selection and failure with this ill conceived volume strategy.

Going back to JDD, the Oilers have picked 9 CHL goalies, one NCAA, one KHL and one Finnish junior before the end of the 5th round.

I'd say there was a definite focus on drafting from there.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Going back to JDD, the Oilers have picked 9 CHL goalies, one NCAA, one KHL and one Finnish junior before the end of the 5th round.

I'd say there was a definite focus on drafting from there.

Look at all their goaltender picks. They are varied and wide across countries and leagues.

My biggest takeaway from the vague Bader information would be never look at gift Waldstadt in the mouth. Based on his high level information, Walsdstadt is best positioned to cover the bet to NHL goaltending and 200+ games.