I've been pretty obsessed with the expansion draft and the Oilers have quite a few things going for them that I don't think a lot of fans think of.
Seattle needs to take 20/30 contracts that have term. This implies two things:
1) RFA's like Kharia, Kahun, Shore, Marody and Benson aren't high priority.
2) Drafting a UFA is not ideal. RNH, Larsson and Barrie are all UFA's.
Seattle will be flush with good defenceman.
1) Seattle will have a lot of defenceman available that are better than Jones/Lagesson.
2) Jones/Lagesson have to clear waivers making making them either trade bait or not worth picking.
3) If Klefbom is exposed, I don't think Seattle wants to risk paying him 8.3M to never play a game for them.
On top of that,
Seattle needs to have at least 14 forwards on their roster but only 9 defenceman. This implies:
1) All things being equal they will prefer forwards over defenceman.
2) On teams without a lot of great options they will take a forward.
I think it would be really smart of the Oilers to move Kyle Turris to a team like New Jersey that needs a forward that meets the exposure requirements. He only has slightly negative value with his low cap hit so maybe you trade him and a 6th for a 7th. New Jersey has lots of cap space and the only forward that would meet the exposure conditions if signed is Nathan Bastian.
Honestly, I don't see a whole lot that Seattle would be interested in. They aren't taking Koskinen, Neal or Kassian without a sweetner. When you look at our list independently I think it would come down to fringe players like Kahun (RFA), Marody (RFA), Lagesson (isn't as good as other D they can take and needs to clear waivers) and Stalock (didnt play a single game for the Oilers coming off a heart condition from covid).
When you compare our list to the rest of the league, I'm not sure Seattle will want to use 10 RFA/UFA spots on a guy like Kahun when they can get guys with more potential (Dunn, Forsling, Nolan, Gauthier, Bastian, etc) and/or don't have to clear waivers (Borgen, Clague, Mahura, etc.) You would think this level of player would be found in free agency without any issues.
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