Rielly vs Ristolainen

[firstemperor]

I think you're focusing in on one small part of my criteria for a #1 dman, but I stand by the idea that a #1 dman should be in the top 60 league-wide for aTOI and in the top 2 of aTOI on his own team. Worth noting that IMO a legit #1 dman should also be at least one of these three things: elite offensively, outstanding in all situations while posting decent offensive numbers, or top end shutdown defensively.

Can you (or anyone else for that matter) think of a legit #1 dman in recent memory who has not been in the top 60 league-wide for aTOI and in the top 2 of aTOI on his own team? Maybe it depends on the definition of "legit #1 dman," and I don't want to get bogged down in semantics, but I can't think of any off hand...

The thing is, Rielly's GF% is elite to start the year. And he's the only Leaf player to be used in both a PP/PK role right now, though the PK less-so than last year (where he was used it on exclusively)- because Zaitsev is now in that same, Babcock developmental wheel-house that Rielly was in last year.

The minutes thing I'm going to respectfully disagree is overstated. We're not talking about a guy playing in sheltered minutes, we're talking about a guy who gets roughly the same minutes as his peers on his team, give or take, due to Babcock's usage and some other ulterior motives (like Rielly's partner playing long PK shifts and having to rest sufficiently afterwards).

It's not like Riellys putting up great stats (so far), on easy usage or minimal minutes, he's playing 20+ minutes a night. Again, with the way Babcock deploys his players, I think your overstating the minute eating component. These are regular season games, not playoff games, there's ulterior, bigger-picture factors like longevity of your players, and giving the rest of your team some minutes/space to grow/develop as well.

For reference, look into how many minutes Auston Matthews gets- ATOI 18:25. McDavid- ATOI 22:21, Brayden Schenn- ATOI- 19:41. I think what fundamentally matters is productivity, given tough usage to define a #1, not picking at straws and arguing about minutes. I mean right now, as amazing as McDavid and Eichel are...they are getting criticized for their usage in those minutes, particularly Eichel. It's not a great thing, all the time, to throw your best players the kitchen sink. Sure, you need superstars to win at the end of the day, but there are genuinely bigger picture considerations beyond this all.

Fair enough if you think that's the straw that swings it to the other extreme, IMO it's a bit picky. I think the bigger factor is sample size personally (once a player gets tough usage) and productivity.....that's what I generally use to judge d-man...so it's not unique to Rielly either, it applies to guys like Slavin and many others. This is where Piets has been elite, for reference.

 

[stl76]

Excuse me for not going through his entire thread, which is 80% garbage, to read your criteria on number 1 defensemen.

For me it's simply QoC and production.

Rielly faces top competition. Last season he was able to tread water against top comp. and this season he's out-chancing them.

Also when we're talking about TOI, it's not as if someone is playing 25 minutes and Rielly is playing 20 minutes. The leafs have 4 guys hovering at 21-22 minutes and that's a decision made with help from their Sports Science department to limit playing time. The fact that it's being used to dump on Rielly is either ignorant or disingenuous, which is typical of Hfboards.

Auston Matthews playing 18 minutes a game, while other 1Cs play 20+ usually. Does that mean he's not a number 1 centre?

I don't expect you to read thru this entire thread. My original post explaining criteria for a legit #1 dman was literally 7 posts above yours, and I explained them again 3 posts above yours.

Your criteria are interesting, I don't necessarily disagree that QoC and production are good ways to judge whether a player is a legit #1.

However, I have to ask, what metric are you using to judge QoC? Because the most common would be TOI%QoC, which uses TOI as a measure of talent...something you accuse me of being dumb for doing...soooo.......

As for the sports science dept deciding to limit playing time, that actually sounds like a reasonable explanation that I was not aware of. However, ultimately the coach makes the TOI decisions, and I have a hard time believing that if the leafs had a legit #1 dman (Doughty, Hedman, Pietrangelo, etc), Babcock would only play him for 21 minutes.

The thing is, Rielly's GF% is elite to start the year. And he's the only Leaf player to be used in both a PP/PK role right now, though the PK less-so than last year (where he was used it on exclusively)- because Zaitsev is now in that same, Babcock developmental wheel-house that Rielly was in last year.

The minutes thing I'm going to respectfully disagree is overstated. We're not talking about a guy playing in sheltered minutes, we're talking about a guy who gets roughly the same minutes as his peers on his team, give or take, due to Babcock's usage and some other ulterior motives (like Rielly's partner playing long PK shifts and having to rest sufficiently afterwards).

It's not like Riellys putting up great stats (so far), on easy usage or minimal minutes, he's playing 20+ minutes a night. Again, with the way Babcock deploys his players, I think your overstating the minute eating component. These are regular season games, not playoff games, there's ulterior, bigger-picture factors like longevity of your players, and giving the rest of your team some minutes/space to grow/develop as well.

For reference, look into how many minutes Auston Matthews gets- ATOI 18:25. McDavid- ATOI 22:21, Brayden Schenn- ATOI- 19:41. I think what fundamentally matters is productivity, given tough usage to define a #1, not picking at straws and arguing about minutes. I mean right now, as amazing as McDavid and Eichel are...they are getting criticized for their usage in those minutes, particularly Eichel. It's not a great thing, all the time, to throw your best players the kitchen sink. Sure, you need superstars to win at the end of the day, but there are genuinely bigger picture considerations beyond this all.

Fair enough if you think that's the straw that swings it to the other extreme, IMO it's a bit picky. I think the bigger factor is sample size personally (once a player gets tough usage) and productivity.....that's what I generally use to judge d-man...so it's not unique to Rielly either, it applies to guys like Slavin and many others. This is where Piets has been elite, for reference.

Perhaps the criteria of TOI for a legit #1 dman (top 60 aTOI and top 2 aTOI on his own team) would not apply well to the leafs given the player management decisions of Babcock and apparently the sports sciences dept. However, I think it would be fair to say that they are "the exception to the rule" leaguewide.

I agree with you that Rielly is doing really well so far against tough competition and that sample size and productivity are important factors. You yourself agree that Rielly is not a legit #1 dman yet. I wonder, do you think if the leafs did have a legit #1 dman he would play less that 22min aTOI? Pure hypothetical, no right or wrong answer, but I have a tough time believing such a player wouldn't be in the top 60 aTOI leaguewide and top 2 aTOI on the leafs.

 

[firstemperor]

I wonder, do you think if the leafs did have a legit #1 dman he would play less that 22min aTOI? Pure hypothetical, no right or wrong answer, but I have a tough time believing such a player wouldn't be in the top 60 aTOI leaguewide and top 2 aTOI on the leafs.

In the playoffs, Rielly's minutes increased to 26.5 minutes ATOI (we had some O.T games but nonetheless)......and Babcock started being more cerebral about line deployment. My personal thoughts are that if Rielly held up his sample size and truly emerged as a #1 this year, he would still get roughly around 21-22 minutes. That's just the way Babcock coaches......he's on a different plane of thinking. And your right, Leafs have a huge sports science department as well, and this extends to the Raptors- they are under the same owners. It's interesting stuff when you actually hear about it (i.e. there's an anecdote in basketball where they've analyzed a player's strong side on driving to the rim and have used that to fix any muscle imbalances, etc. as such).

There's no reason, for example, to shelter your 3rd pairing completely during the regular season and play them exclusively on offensive zone draws, or with your shut-down line (and never with your 4th line or some under-performing line). In the regular season, Babcock will throw those guys out there with lesser qualms, for the most part.

In the playoffs or in meaningful games? You will see Babcock do a 180 and make his line deployment far stricter. He will start allowing his best players to eat more minutes.

Why? Because you can't shelter your bottom players forever or they won't learn or get better. One of the main points about a long regular season is to grow your team and hope they peak when it matters.

 

[stl76]

In the playoffs, Rielly's minutes increased to 26.5 minutes ATOI (we had some O.T games but nonetheless)......and Babcock started being more cerebral about line deployment. My personal thoughts are that if Rielly held up his sample size and truly emerged as a #1 this year, he would still get roughly around 21-22 minutes. That's just the way Babcock coaches......he's on a different plane of thinking. And your right, Leafs have a huge sports science department as well, and this extends to the Raptors- they are under the same owners. It's interesting stuff when you actually hear about it (i.e. there's an anecdote in basketball where they've analyzed a player's strong side on driving to the rim and have used that to fix any muscle imbalances, etc. as such).

There's no reason, for example, to shelter your 3rd pairing completely during the regular season and play them exclusively on offensive zone draws, or with your shut-down line (and never with your 4th line or some under-performing line). In the regular season, Babcock will throw those guys out there with lesser qualms, for the most part.

In the playoffs or in meaningful games? You will see Babcock do a 180 and make his line deployment far stricter. He will start allowing his best players to eat more minutes.

Why? Because you can't shelter your bottom players forever or they won't learn or get better. One of the main points about a long regular season is to grow your team and hope they peak when it matters.

I'm still a little incredulous, but thanks for the explanation/response.

 

[ColonelCanuck]

Risto

 

[BAM]

I could care less what TOI Rielly averages during the season, he's been playing like a #1 so far this year and if him playing less minutes now means he has more in the tank come playoffs...I'm all for it.

Side note, I find it hilarious that your ice time is now the true testament to determining how good you are. Basketball is a perfect example of why rest for star players is key. Why kill yourself in the regular season only to flame out in the post-season. Going forward, I could easily see Rielly be the #1 on the Leafs and play even ice time amongst the other defensemen but come playoff time be bumped up to 28+ minutes. The dude is a gym rat and has great work ethic, I have no doubt he can handle the extra minutes when it's needed, unfortunately for HF, a game in November doesn't require that in the grand scheme of things as shown by the Leafs sports medicine department. Last year in the playoffs he averaged over 26 minutes of ice time over the 6 games and played 4 seconds shy of 40 minutes in game 2. And with that increased ice time he produced 5 points in 6 games and was a +1 against the president's trophy winners (also should be noted that he had the hardest usage of any Leaf D-man so he performed like that while primarily facing the top lines of the best team in the league that year (regular season).

 

[Asiantuntija]

Risto

Yes and it's not even close. What the f*** people? Results are joke. Rielly isn't even close to his level.

 

[DatSnipeMatthews]

Yes and it's not even close. What the **** people? Results are joke. Rielly isn't even close to his level.

Are you still upset that Matthews is 10x the player that Laine is?

Provide stats to support your claim that Risto is better

 

[Mattilaus]

Rielly this season would be the best dmen on both BUF and WPG

no disrespect to the good dmen on both teams

What are those?

 

[1specter]

Yes and it's not even close. What the **** people? Results are joke. Rielly isn't even close to his level.

Stop crying and back it up.

 

[lomiller1]

Back in 2011-2013 Jets fans had though Bogosian had really turned the corner after his early struggles in Atlanta. His possession numbers were excellent, his 5v5 scoring numbers were excellent and still on the rise and the decision making issues that had plagued him in Atlanta seemed to be a thing of the past. He has all the Physical tools and looked for all the world like a blooming #1 D man. Since then, as Sabers fans can surly attest, things haven’t worked out so well.



Relevance to this thread? Well his D-partner those 2 years when things were looking so promising was non other than Rielly’s current D partner Ron Hainsey. The guy is one of the most underrated D-men in the NHL and has a history of making his D-partners look a lot better than they really are. He was a great signing by the Leafs but if history is any indication I’d be cautious about concluding Rielly has had some sort of breakthrough, he could just be the current beneficiary of the guidance from a smart effective D partner. I’d still rather have Rielly than Risto though.

 

[Ainec]

What are those?

Scandolainen

 

[93LEAFS]

Back in 2011-2013 Jets fans had though Bogosian had really turned the corner after his early struggles in Atlanta. His possession numbers were excellent, his 5v5 scoring numbers were excellent and still on the rise and the decision making issues that had plagued him in Atlanta seemed to be a thing of the past. He has all the Physical tools and looked for all the world like a blooming #1 D man. Since then, as Sabers fans can surly attest, things haven’t worked out so well.



Relevance to this thread? Well his D-partner those 2 years when things were looking so promising was non other than Rielly’s current D partner Ron Hainsey. The guy is one of the most underrated D-men in the NHL and has a history of making his D-partners look a lot better than they really are. He was a great signing by the Leafs but if history is any indication I’d be cautious about concluding Rielly has had some sort of breakthrough, he could just be the current beneficiary of the guidance from a smart effective D partner. I’d still rather have Rielly than Risto though.

Hainsey has helped, but Rielly has looked good any-time he's had a competent defense partner when at international events (most notably with Tanev). It just means long-term the Leafs need to be aware of guys in a similar mold to pair with Rielly.

 

[Ainec]

Back in 2011-2013 Jets fans had though Bogosian had really turned the corner after his early struggles in Atlanta. His possession numbers were excellent, his 5v5 scoring numbers were excellent and still on the rise and the decision making issues that had plagued him in Atlanta seemed to be a thing of the past. He has all the Physical tools and looked for all the world like a blooming #1 D man. Since then, as Sabers fans can surly attest, things haven’t worked out so well.



Relevance to this thread? Well his D-partner those 2 years when things were looking so promising was non other than Rielly’s current D partner Ron Hainsey. The guy is one of the most underrated D-men in the NHL and has a history of making his D-partners look a lot better than they really are. He was a great signing by the Leafs but if history is any indication I’d be cautious about concluding Rielly has had some sort of breakthrough, he could just be the current beneficiary of the guidance from a smart effective D partner. I’d still rather have Rielly than Risto though.

You're giving Hainsey too much credit. Faulk has looked good with him as well there's another one but Bogosian simply declined

There's a huge difference between Matt Hunwick and a solid #3 dmen that is Hainsey

 

[Atomos2]

I think you're focusing in on one small part of my criteria for a #1 dman, but I stand by the idea that a #1 dman should be in the top 60 league-wide for aTOI and in the top 2 of aTOI on his own team. Worth noting that IMO a legit #1 dman should also be at least one of these three things: elite offensively, outstanding in all situations while posting decent offensive numbers, or top end shutdown defensively.

Agreed that to a certain extent TOI is a coach's decision and out of the players' hands. However, if a dman is a legit #1, I think their play would pretty much force the coach's hand and he would earn more ice time. The fact that Hainsey plays so much PK & gets short shifted after, thus lowering Rielly's aTOI, is only further damning (IMO) to considering Rielly a legit #1. I think a legit #1 would either get more more PK time or would have to be elite offensively, in which case they would most likely make up the difference in TOI in more PP time. Regardless the aTOI would be higher.

Can you (or anyone else for that matter) think of a legit #1 dman in recent memory who has not been in the top 60 league-wide for aTOI and in the top 2 of aTOI on his own team? Maybe it depends on the definition of "legit #1 dman," and I don't want to get bogged down in semantics, but I can't think of any off hand...

This is all subjective gibberish. The number one defenceman is the best and most valuable defenceman on the team. That's it. That's the criteria. It is simple to see who the most valuable dman on the Leafs team is. It's Rielly. Hainsey and Zaitsev are crucial support dman that are very important, but Rielly leads the backend on the Leafs and he is our number 1 dman.

 

[34]

Rielly and not close now!

This is not even poll worthy.

 

[LondonKendrick]

Yes and it's not even close. What the **** people? Results are joke. Rielly isn't even close to his level.

I'm not looking to argue, I'm just curious why someone would think that arguably the worst 5 on 5 defenseman in the league is better than Rielly?

 

[TMLeafs17]

I can’t see the results, what is the poll at?

 

[Pocket Hercules]

Weekend belongs to week brother. Week = 7 days. Results are total joke in this pool. Our team has 4-5 better defenders than Rielly.

Yeah, it certainly shows in the standings.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I can’t see the results, what is the poll at?

62.4% Rielly

 

[Golden_Jet]

To the poster talking about players getting sheltered minutes.
Obviously it’s much easier to shelter a player on home ice, with the last change.

 

[Aladyyn]

Hainsey has helped, but Rielly has looked good any-time he's had a competent defense partner when at international events (most notably with Tanev). It just means long-term the Leafs need to be aware of guys in a similar mold to pair with Rielly.

Wow sounds like Ristolainen!

 

[93LEAFS]

Wow sounds like Ristolainen!

Risto only looks good when its 5 on 4 in general. Its not like he's been great this year even with Scandella.

 

[Aladyyn]

Risto only looks good when its 5 on 4 in general. Its not like he's been great this year even with Scandella.

That's not true tho...

 

[93LEAFS]

That's not true tho...

You think Risto has played well this year? His possession numbers are better over a 13 game sample (which is really nothing as most of these take a larger sample size to actually be reflective or offer value in future predictions).