Speculation: Realistic return for Devils UFA's

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Landeskog is very unlikely to make it to UFA. Hoffman and Tatar, sure. RNH, if he makes it to UFA, will almost certainly go somewhere where he is expected to play center, and he won't get to be on a power play with McDavid and Draisaitl. It of course needs no pointing out that RNH has scored 114 goals in the 376 games he's played for the Oilers since 2015-16 while Palmieri has scored 136 in 387 for the Devils and hasn't had a PP with Draisaitl and McDavid on which to do it. Palms obviously has more PP goals but that's because he's been the guy the Devils have looked to set up on the power play - Nugent-Hopkins would never be that option for anybody.



You keep constructing strawmen like the idea that I said Palmieri deserves 1st line winger money or term.

Palmieri did belong in that discussion before this season, he could easily have been a 1st line winger on basically any team - there'd obviously be several teams where he wouldn't be because of who's already there, but right-shot RWs who score nearly 30 goals/82 games are difficult to find. Any winger who scores nearly 30 goals/82 games are difficult to find. The Devils have really only managed to find 1 over the last 10 years.

See, the problem with this line of thinking is that you are also discarding any kind of possibility that a Kuokkanen or a Sharangovich or hell even a Wood could put up Palmieri type numbers given his ice time and his situation. Small sample size here I know but Kuokkanen is on pace for 21goals/82 games this year and he isn't getting Palmieri icetime or great linemates.

Maybe there is an FA out there who isn't a "top tier" FA who would put up better production on a lower echelon team like ours. Kind of like how we got Palmieri right?

Palmieri IS replaceable. People here are so shortsighted that its a) We don't have anyone capable of replacing Palmieri so we have to bring him back or b) We can't get a FA to sign with us unless we overpay and give them a horrible contract. Ok, so that leaves us with what? Impending doom?

Reilly Smith is a guy we could probably pry off of Vegas for a couple of mid round picks.
Where were we on Jack Roslovic? He certainly seems to be doing pretty well with Columbus and he was available for oh, I don't know, 2 years on the trade market?

Every team has players who can replace Palmieri, it's up to Fitz to identify who these guys are and start bringing them in.

I'm good with bringing Palmieri back for 3 x 4. He doesn't deserve a raise after the way he has been playing this year. I can't fathom NJ is sitting here watching him play this year and thinking, "yes, we are giving Palmieri a raise because we don't have a replacement".

 

[Emperoreddy]

This is even sillier. So nearly any prospect can become a near 30 goal scorer. They just playing time.

What Palms brings scoring wise when he isn't off like this is totally pedestrian and easily replaceable. So easy we haven't had a single RW in years able to score like has.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

It would be pretty hilarious if we traded for Kerfoot as part of a larger trade where we trade bigger contracts to TOR, and then waived Butcher.

Obviously no real Center spot for him to play here, which is why he didn't sign with us

I'd listen for sure on three way trades this offseason/deadline where we are dumping grounds for contracts to make the math work e.g. we get Kerfoot for free and Toronto trades Amirov for forward help. But after the Johnsson trade I'm definitely apprehensive of this strategy. Much happier with deals were we get paid to take bad one year contracts.

 

[blink]

This is even sillier. So nearly any prospect can become a near 30 goal scorer. They just playing time.

What Palms brings scoring wise when he isn't off like this is totally pedestrian and easily replaceable. So easy we haven't had a single RW in years able to score like has.

You took it to an extreme. I said the word possibility. You give a guy like Kuokkanen or Sharangovich a real shot or you go and find another player who may fit.

I'm all for bringing Palmieri back at a reasonable term and money but if we have to trade him for assets, it's not the end of the world. If you sign him, then you hope your lineup is good enough where you don't have to solely rely on Palmieri to generate the offence.

I don't believe he is a 1RW on every team in the league. Not even close.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Sounds like the leafs are looking to trade for a rental, most likely a top 6 forward. Wonder if Palmieri is someone they’re looking at. Dubas is willing to give up a good prospect but I doubt he would give up too much for Palmieri and the leafs lack of cap space would make it difficult.

 

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Sounds like the leafs are looking to trade for a rental, most likely a top 6 forward. Wonder if Palmieri is someone they’re looking at. Dubas is willing to give up a good prospect but I doubt he would give up too much for Palmieri and the leafs lack of cap space would make it difficult.

Leafs may be on his no trade list. I heard somewhere he had a bunch of Canadian teams on it. We'd definitely have to take back a contract as well, which would be fine.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

This is even sillier. So nearly any prospect can become a near 30 goal scorer. They just playing time.

What Palms brings scoring wise when he isn't off like this is totally pedestrian and easily replaceable. So easy we haven't had a single RW in years able to score like has.

You are looking backwards. How do you think Palms will be moving forward? The poster said he would sign him short term. Does that mean you would sign him long term? The Devils do not seem interested in a long term deal based on their actions. Is Fitz being silly? As your GM said:

"I don’t ever want to look back and go, ‘Geez, I did it for this season and next season, but, boy, years three and four, what am I going to do with this guy?’ I’m not looking at any particular player, but I am looking at there’s always a drop-off with older players."

Why Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald won’t spend $18M in cap space on Taylor Hall, Mike Hoffman ... or any big-money free agents - nj.com

 

[Derps]

I don't believe he is a 1RW on every team in the league. Not even close.

Yeah, he's definitely not. I think you could probably slot him in at 1RW if you have two players that are better at C and LW, but just a quick look at some of the teams in the Eastern Conference and he's the best RW on Florida and the Rangers and that's pretty much it. He's just real quality 2RW on a contending team. Would be nice to see him get a chance on a team that's not a dumpster fire.

 

[Triumph]

See, the problem with this line of thinking is that you are also discarding any kind of possibility that a Kuokkanen or a Sharangovich or hell even a Wood could put up Palmieri type numbers given his ice time and his situation. Small sample size here I know but Kuokkanen is on pace for 21goals/82 games this year and he isn't getting Palmieri icetime or great linemates.

Yes, I am discarding that possibility. Kuokkanen has 38 goals in 164 AHL games. So no, he would not put up Palmieri numbers given that sort of ice time or linemates. Miles Wood has been here for 5 seasons already and yes it looks like he's improved his shot a bit - still not going to put up Palms-type numbers. The only player you've listed here with the possibility of reaching Palmieri's level is Sharangovich, but I would regard that as quite unlikely.

Maybe there is an FA out there who isn't a "top tier" FA who would put up better production on a lower echelon team like ours. Kind of like how we got Palmieri right?

It is very hard to find such a player once they reach UFA age. Most players have been given sufficient chances by the time they reach 27 or older.

Palmieri IS replaceable. People here are so shortsighted that its a) We don't have anyone capable of replacing Palmieri so we have to bring him back or b) We can't get a FA to sign with us unless we overpay and give them a horrible contract. Ok, so that leaves us with what? Impending doom?

Reilly Smith is a guy we could probably pry off of Vegas for a couple of mid round picks.
Where were we on Jack Roslovic? He certainly seems to be doing pretty well with Columbus and he was available for oh, I don't know, 2 years on the trade market?

Reilly Smith is having a poor season and is a year older than Palmieri. He's a fine short-term fix for free but he's not very good.

Jack Roslovic was traded in a big deal for a top-line center. You're also quite good at finding players who are on shooting percentage benders.

Every team has players who can replace Palmieri, it's up to Fitz to identify who these guys are and start bringing them in.

Right, he should just ask around, who has top wingers available for cheap?

I'm good with bringing Palmieri back for 3 x 4. He doesn't deserve a raise after the way he has been playing this year. I can't fathom NJ is sitting here watching him play this year and thinking, "yes, we are giving Palmieri a raise because we don't have a replacement".

Please point out the people who think that Palmieri should get a raise.

 

[Blackjack]

Leafs may be on his no trade list. I heard somewhere he had a bunch of Canadian teams on it. We'd definitely have to take back a contract as well, which would be fine.

f***, I forgot about that. I wonder if he'd waive that for a shot at the cup considering it would only be for a few months.

 

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Yes, I am discarding that possibility. Kuokkanen has 38 goals in 164 AHL games. So no, he would not put up Palmieri numbers given that sort of ice time or linemates. Miles Wood has been here for 5 seasons already and yes it looks like he's improved his shot a bit - still not going to put up Palms-type numbers. The only player you've listed here with the possibility of reaching Palmieri's level is Sharangovich, but I would regard that as quite unlikely.



It is very hard to find such a player once they reach UFA age. Most players have been given sufficient chances by the time they reach 27 or older.



Reilly Smith is having a poor season and is a year older than Palmieri. He's a fine short-term fix for free but he's not very good.

Jack Roslovic was traded in a big deal for a top-line center. You're also quite good at finding players who are on shooting percentage benders.



Right, he should just ask around, who has top wingers available for cheap?



Please point out the people who think that Palmieri should get a raise.

I love this. I guess we are stuck with him then. What I am getting out of these responses is that Palmieri isn't replaceable. I guess we see things differently.

Isn't it a GM's job to ask around and see which players are available? Does nobody have anyone available who can possibly replace Palmieri? I mean we are sitting on a boat filled with cap space, prospects and draft picks. Not all of these guys are going to make the team.

How much do you feel we should give him to stick around? I already said I'd give him 3 x 4, are we in agreement?

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

See, the problem with this line of thinking is that you are also discarding any kind of possibility that a Kuokkanen or a Sharangovich or hell even a Wood could put up Palmieri type numbers given his ice time and his situation. Small sample size here I know but Kuokkanen is on pace for 21goals/82 games this year and he isn't getting Palmieri icetime or great linemates.

Maybe there is an FA out there who isn't a "top tier" FA who would put up better production on a lower echelon team like ours. Kind of like how we got Palmieri right?

Palmieri IS replaceable. People here are so shortsighted that its a) We don't have anyone capable of replacing Palmieri so we have to bring him back or b) We can't get a FA to sign with us unless we overpay and give them a horrible contract. Ok, so that leaves us with what? Impending doom?

Reilly Smith is a guy we could probably pry off of Vegas for a couple of mid round picks.
Where were we on Jack Roslovic? He certainly seems to be doing pretty well with Columbus and he was available for oh, I don't know, 2 years on the trade market?

Every team has players who can replace Palmieri, it's up to Fitz to identify who these guys are and start bringing them in.

I'm good with bringing Palmieri back for 3 x 4. He doesn't deserve a raise after the way he has been playing this year. I can't fathom NJ is sitting here watching him play this year and thinking, "yes, we are giving Palmieri a raise because we don't have a replacement".

Agree with the post. The mistake some posters make is they look at a player and say losing him would cost the team 25 goals or whatever they expect him to score. The team is losing what he would score above his replacement. Fitz has made clear he will not jeopardize the future to sign a player that will only marginally help over the next year or two. I commented in the off season that the Devils should offer Palms to a 3 year deal. Multiple posters told me it was "fantasy" to think Palms would sign for 3 years. They may have been right - two may be more like it now!

 

[blink]

Agree with the post. The mistake some posters make is they look at a player and say losing him would cost the team 25 goals or whatever they expect him to score. The team is losing what he would score above his replacement. Fitz has made clear he will not jeopardize the future to sign a player that will only marginally help over the next year or two. I commented in the off season that the Devils should offer Palms to a 3 year deal. Multiple posters told me it was "fantasy" to think Palms would sign for 3 years. They may have been right - two may be more like it now!

Exactly. This is why WAR in baseball has proven to be effective in analyzing players.

It's not "we lose Palmieri we are losing 25-30 goals per season, who can replace that?" It's "we are losing 25-30 goals per season but could player A or B, given the same kind of icetime and responsibility, put up similar numbers to 25-30 goals". You might be surprised at the results.

Palmieri puts up 30goals/82 games during an NHL season and makes 4.65 mil per season
Player B puts up 20goals/82 games during an NHL season and makes 1.5 mil per season

Which is the better player for your team?

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Please point out the people who think that Palmieri should get a raise.

I've said Palmieri should get a raise on his AAV ($4.65 m). It's the only way to get him to sign before the deadline. Anything else would be insulting IMO. If we're at the point where we won't even give him like $5m x 2 then it's time to trade him for anything.

 

[FooteBahl]

I've said Palmieri should get a raise on his AAV ($4.65 m). It's the only way to get him to sign before the deadline. Anything else would be insulting IMO. If we're at the point where we won't even give him like $5m x 2 then it's time to trade him for anything.

I’m pretty neutral on the Palmieri situation. I wouldn’t lose sleep if we traded him, nor would I do cartwheels if he re-signed. That said, I’m not sure if he’s even offered $5 million if he hits free agency after seeing all of the bargain basement Covid contracts this past offseason.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I’m pretty neutral on the Palmieri situation. I wouldn’t lose sleep if we traded him, nor would I do cartwheels if he re-signed. That said, I’m not sure if he’s even offered $5 million if he hits free agency after seeing all of the bargain basement Covid contracts this past offseason.

If he keeps playing like this, then no chance. It also means he won't come back to NJ most likely, baring a Vatanenesque situation where almost no one wants him. Which means, we will lose him and they will have to replace him with a free agent / cap dump trade / pray Holtz can play in the NHL.

 

[NJDevs26]

Exactly. This is why WAR in baseball has proven to be effective in analyzing players.

It's not "we lose Palmieri we are losing 25-30 goals per season, who can replace that?" It's "we are losing 25-30 goals per season but could player A or B, given the same kind of icetime and responsibility, put up similar numbers to 25-30 goals". You might be surprised at the results.

Palmieri puts up 30goals/82 games during an NHL season and makes 4.65 mil per season
Player B puts up 20goals/82 games during an NHL season and makes 1.5 mil per season

Which is the better player for your team?

Forget 30 goals, how many likely 20 goal wingers are on the roster as it stands right now without Palm...maybe two? And that's assuming Bratt gets there someday and Zacha's no longer a center. It's way too early to count Sharangovich as that.

It's not as easy as people are making it out to be to either replace goals or just have anyone score in the 'right' situation and it's kind of surprising Devil fans still have this mentality. We've had plenty of wingers have the right situation that couldn't find the ocean with the puck in the last eight years. That's all we've done the last few years outside of Hall/Palms is have cheap player B type wingers, and we have one of the worst offenses in the league. Not to mention ten goals in a season is a lot with the amount of close games there are...an extra goal sure would have helped the last two games.

You better either draft scoring or pay for it, you can't have a bunch of middling wingers and expect to score. At least Fitz took steps toward drafting it last offseason with Holtz plus the trade for Foote but that won't help the roster for at least a couple years so in the meantime we'll complain Jack and Nico have no wingers.

 

[glenwo2]

I love how you dodge simple questions. If all you can come up with is asking me why my username is still the same, instead of coming up with a reasoning to justify why it’s not ok to crap on Bratt but it’s more then fair to do so on Johnsson, that’s pretty lame.

WTF is a Glenwo2 anyways?

Well I can tell you what it's not :

Taylors Lost Step.

(nice new username, btw. Somehow it fits even though that was not your goal )

 

[NjDevsRR]

How about we focus on right wingers who can actually keep up with the likes of Hughes Bratt and Zacha and not drag the line down when they aren’t producing? Thats the problem I see. Production be damned when the play dies on Palms stick which makes his linemates unproductive. I want players who can keep up with our talent even when they aren’t producing, this ultimately helps the production of the line as a whole, or at the very least helps the line dictate the play.

 

[glenwo2]

How about we focus on a right wingers who can keep up with the likes of Hughes Bratt and Zacha and not drag the line down when they aren’t producing? Thats the problem I see, the play dies on Palms stick.

Nico getting hurt really f'ed things up.

He, Zacha, and Bratt were just starting to get things going.

Palms has fast turned into Michael Ryder 'cause he's been invisible.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

 

[Darkauron]

I really question how much we could actually get for Palms this season at his current abysmal playing rate. I feel like he will rebound (to what degree idk) at some point this season, or next and may have a lot more value if we resign him for a 2 year deal or something (and then trade him later)

Maybe teams will see his stats and play from other season and still give good value for him at the trade deadline thinking maybe this season is a bit of an outlier? Guess we will see.

 

[glenwo2]

Get the best deal available from those 3 teams, and pick one.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I really question how much we could actually get for Palms this season at his current abysmal playing rate. I feel like he will rebound (to what degree idk) at some point this season, or next and may have a lot more value if we resign him for a 2 year deal or something (and then trade him later)

Maybe teams will see his stats and play from other season and still give good value for him at the trade deadline thinking maybe this season is a bit of an outlier? Guess we will see.

Not enough to get a new forward that can score 20+ goals and the team needs that next season and not 3 years from now.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Wahlstrom would be a perfect type return for Palmieri but he’s playing too well and Palmieri is playing too shitty for that to happen now.