WJC: Predictions for U20 WJC 2023/2024

[canuck2010]

Just announced that Team Canada has lost both Dmen Tristan Luneau and Tanner Molendyk to injury for the U20 championship. Replaced by Jorian Donovan and Ty Nelson.

 

[SantosHalper]

it's the most wonderful time of the year, with U20 are playing and everyone cheering.... and so on

GROUP A
1. Sweden
2. Canada
3. Finland
4. Germany
5. Latvia

GROUP B
1. USA
2. Czechia
3. Slovakia
4. Switzerland
5. Norway

Quarterfinals
Sweden - Switzerland
Germany - USA
Canada - Slovakia
Finland - Czechia

Semifinals
Sweden - Czechia
Canada - USA

Bronze medal game
Canada - Czechia

Gold medal game
Sweden - USA

USA wins gold, Sweden always fumbles the U20 gold medal game. Norway beats Latvia in relegation round.

 

[JackSlater]

I'll predict a Canada-USA final, Canada wins, and a Sweden-Czechs bronze game, Sweden wins.

I really have no confidence regarding how the top three will shake out. Presumably USA wins its group easily and good odds that Canada and Sweden play in the semi-finals. Czechs seem a bit underrated to me and could make some noise. I don't think Finland looks that good, but there's a history of those teams overperforming so who knows.

To me Canada, USA, and Sweden each have clear weaknesses. Canada's roster is generally underrated I find, but the goaltending situation looks worse than it has in several years and Luneau missing the tournament (Molendyk missing isn't a big issue in my eyes) is a significant problem. A lot of minutes to fill. USA's is going to score a lot, but their defence should struggle too, and in the end losing a game 4-5 count just as much as winning a bunch of games 8-2. The pre-tournament game between Canada and USA showed both teams' perceived strengths and weaknesses, even though pre-tournament games tend to not be significant predictors of anything. Sweden is Sweden, and although each tournament is distinct from every other tournament, it's been decades of underperforming for Sweden. Good roster, not incredible, large ice should be beneficial, not sure they won't look great until flaming out in the semi-final or final.

 

[ORRFForever]

I'll predict a Canada-USA final, Canada wins, and a Sweden-Czechs bronze game, Sweden wins.

I really have no confidence regarding how the top three will shake out. Presumably USA wins its group easily and good odds that Canada and Sweden play in the semi-finals. Czechs seem a bit underrated to me and could make some noise. I don't think Finland looks that good, but there's a history of those teams overperforming so who knows.

To me Canada, USA, and Sweden each have clear weaknesses. Canada's roster is generally underrated I find, but the goaltending situation looks worse than it has in several years and Luneau missing the tournament (Molendyk missing isn't a big issue in my eyes) is a significant problem. A lot of minutes to fill. USA's is going to score a lot, but their defence should struggle too, and in the end losing a game 4-5 count just as much as winning a bunch of games 8-2. The pre-tournament game between Canada and USA showed both teams' perceived strengths and weaknesses, even though pre-tournament games tend to not be significant predictors of anything. Sweden is Sweden, and although each tournament is distinct from every other tournament, it's been decades of underperforming for Sweden. Good roster, not incredible, large ice should be beneficial, not sure they won't look great until flaming out in the semi-final or final.

You haven't posted much lately. Hope you are well, J.S. Thanks for your usual insight.

 

[shaner8989]

Canada
Usa
Sweden

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I hope I'm wrong, but I think the US team is weaker than people think. I know they won the pre-tournament games against Sweden and Canada, which should theoretically be the strongest competition, but those were close games. They weren't demolitions. I think USA is the favorite, but in a one-off elimination game, I think a team like Sweden will give the US a lot of trouble, and Canada definitely also could.

USA in roster construction made the same mistake with the defense as last year. The team needed another big left-handed defenseman, and needed at least one, possibly two more, total LHD's. Instead they have two sub 6'0 RHD's that probably aren't going to play much. If Buium struggles defensively, this team is in trouble defensively because Hutson is what he is defensively, and Fortescue will be mediocre at best this year. Also, I think they left some of the best available forwards at home. It's a deep forward group, but it could've been better, and it was so needless to make these decisions.

Having a Howard-Nazar-Brindley line also worries me. Sweden will have lines where everyone is 6'2 or taller. Canada has a defense with 6'7 and 6'5 defensemen, and only one under 6'1. I know this is junior hockey and skill usually wins, but as we saw last year, you can't be stupid in pursuit of putting together the most skilled team and lines.

 

[ORRFForever]

Canada
Usa
Sweden

Canada is due to beat the U.S. in a GMG so... maybe.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

This tournament just isn’t the same without the Russians. They always have good, hard working teams and produce a lot of rivalry games. Some of the best, most exciting and memorable games I’ve seen over the decades of watching this tournament have been against Russian teams.

Having that 4th consistent strong team balanced the groups better as well.

 

[ORRFForever]

This tournament just isn’t the same without the Russians.

Agree.

It's still great, tho. Imagine how GREAT it would be WITH them.

 

[Scouter]

Group Stage

Group A

Canada
Sweden
Finland
Latvia
Germany

Group B

US
Slovakia
Czechia
Norway
Switzerland

Relegated

Switzerland

Playoff Round

QF

Canada over Norway
Slovakia over Finland
US over Latvia
Sweden over Czechia

SF

US over Slovakia
Canada over Sweden

Bronze Medal

Sweden over Slovakia

Gold Medal

US over Canada

 

[Scouter]

Most goals: Kulich

Most points: Hutson

Best goalie: Gajan

MVP: Gauthier

 

[Statsy]

Most goals: Kulich

Most points: Hutson

Best goalie: Gajan

MVP: Gauthier

You have predicted a defenseman to lead the tournament in scoring, but NOT win the MVP?

 

[Pieck]

Group A

Sweden
Canada
Finland
Latvia
Germany

USA
Czechia
Slovakia
Switzerland
Norway

Norway over Germany in relegation

Sweden over Switzerland
USA over Latvia
Canada over Slovakia
Czechia over Finland

USA over Czechia
Canada over Sweden

Canada over USA for gold
Sweden over Czechia for bronze

Realized this is a pretty boring prediction while typing it out. Wanted to predict Latvia to do some damage since I see them as the dark horse but Finland looked good in pre-tournament action so it’ll be hard to finish higher than 4th

 

[Bixby Snyder]

USA
Sweden
Czech
Finland
Canada

 

[Scouter]

You have predicted a defenseman to lead the tournament in scoring, but NOT win the MVP?

Guy with most points doesn't always win top player.

 

[ORRFForever]

USA
Sweden
Czech
Finland
Canada

 

[Statsy]

Guy with most points doesn't always win top player.

Except when that guy happens to be a defensemen, which almost never happens. When it does, he's winning MVP... guaranteed!

 

[Jukurit]

Finland's team was already looking very bad and now they're missing their best player in Kemell. This tournament is going to be a disaster for Finland. Bad defense. Bad coach.

My prediction looking very accurate so far.

 

[ORRFForever]

My prediction looking very accurate so far.

What was your prediction?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Canada's team this year isn't as good as last year's, US team this year is better than last year's, Finland's team is better than last years.

And? What is your point?

 

[wishywashy19]

Canada to play Swiss or Czech in Qf.
best option? Or will it matter

 

[Ciao]

Canada's team this year isn't as good as last year's, US team this year is better than last year's, Finland's team is better than last years.

Finland's team is better than last year's?

 

[Scouter]

Finland's team is better than last year's?

On paper yes, but they don't play games on paper do they.

 

[ORRFForever]

Canada to play Swiss or Czech in Qf.
best option? Or will it matter

I'd prefer the Swiss.

Canada needs to beat Sweden (in regulation) and run up the score on Germany - we have a +13, the U.S. is a +11. I'd prefer the Top Seed going into the Semis.

 

[wishywashy19]

I'd prefer the Swiss.

Canada needs to beat Sweden (in regulation) and run up the score on Germany - we have a +13, the U.S. is a +11. I'd prefer the Top Seed going into the Semis.

Agree
we will know better tomorrow.