Playoff success this year

[Aavco Cup]

Fine. Take away Atlanta. We've been Seven years without a playoff win. That is pathetic. I'd be willing to bet every NHL team won one over that time (besides Buffalo and us)

Zero, one, two, three, all = series loss. Only 4 wins in a series is different.

If we go out 4-1 in the first round I will be just as disappointed if it was 4-0. That one win will do nothing for me. It won't make me feel any better. But to each his own.

 

[AWSAA]

Outlasting Toronto & Vegas would be nice.

 

[kanadalainen]

Zero, one, two, three, all = series loss. Only 4 wins in a series is different.

If we go out 4-1 in the first round I will be just as disappointed if it was 4-0. That one win will do nothing for me. It won't make me feel any better. But to each his own.

Agree.

Also: The way the team is playing now is hopefully reflected in the playoffs, so we are dealing with the question of a continuum. That said, I think its useful to split this question down the middle:

1. Regular season, and where are we? A: Best season ever (so far) as Jets 2.0. My 0.02

2. Playoffs, and where should we hope to be, based on the answer to 1.? A: Without embroidering the reality (which means that any series outcome is incredibly dependent on the specific opponent and a variety of intangibles), the Jets have to win one round or perhaps two this year to lend a modicum of permanence to their legacy as Jets 2.0. For me, anything less is just not good enough.
Anything more is gravy.

 

[civic204]

A series win would be amazing.

But, if we match against St. Louis, or Nashville, a very good team is going home in the first round. It would be unfortunate if we went home in round 1, but not embarrassing, if that makes sense.

 

[cbcwpg]

Fine. Take away Atlanta. We've been Seven years without a playoff win. That is pathetic. I'd be willing to bet every NHL team won one over that time (besides Buffalo and us)

Only teams with ZERO Playoff Wins last 7 years

Carolina ( didn't even make the playoffs )
Winnipeg

*- Buffalo won 3 games exactly 7 years ago.

So the only way it could be worse is if we were Carolina or Buffalo.... makes me feel so much better...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Fine. Take away Atlanta. We've been Seven years without a playoff win. That is pathetic. I'd be willing to bet every NHL team won one over that time (besides Buffalo and us)

If we had managed just 1 win in '15 this would have gone away. And the 1 win wouldn't have affected the outcome.

I understand that nobody likes to be shutout but the 'just win 1 game' thing has grown to ridiculous proportions here. It has expanded to 'just win 2' and 'just win 3'.
If we don't win a series we haven't won anything. It goes into the books as 'eliminated in first round'.

 

[cbcwpg]

^--- fair enough.. losing is losing. 1 win or 2 wins you still lost the series.

But I will hazard to bet that even if we lose round one fewer people will be calling for the coaches head, as long as we won a couple of games and made a good showing. Bow out in round one with 0 wins... everyone will be calling for the coach to be fired.

I think the level of discourse will vary greatly as long as we win a game or two. JMO.

 

[White Out 902]

I just can't imagine how anyone can view a first-round exit as anything but a huge let down and disappointment after the season we've had so far.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

^--- fair enough.. losing is losing. 1 win or 2 wins you still lost the series.

But I will hazard to bet that even if we lose round one fewer people will be calling for the coaches head, as long as we won a couple of games and made a good showing. Bow out in round one with 0 wins... everyone will be calling for the coach to be fired.

I think the level of discourse will vary greatly as long as we win a game or two. JMO.

I get your point but I still think you are exaggerating the significance of being swept vs winning 1 or even 2 games.

I think that, if we draw a strong first round opponent,
and take that opponent to 7 games,
and at least most losses are close,
then your scenario kicks in.

That first playoff game won is going to feel really good at the time though.

 

[PerryPooley]

Believe it or not there’s a part of me that worries the team could still somehow miss the playoffs altogether, despite the great season they’ve had to this point and despite the odds. I wish there was more separation between the Jets and the last wild card position.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Believe it or not there’s a part of me that worries the team could still somehow miss the playoffs altogether, despite the great season they’ve had to this point and despite the odds. I wish there was more separation between the Jets and the last wild card position.

You don't think this team can win ten games out of the 25 remaining?

 

[PerryPooley]

You don't think this team can win ten games out of the 25 remaining?

20 more points gets them to 95, which is fine but it took 99 points last time to squeak in. But I understand your point, it’s highly unlikely they’d miss the playoffs this year

 

[Aavco Cup]

20 more points gets them to 95, which is fine but it took 99 points last time to squeak in. But I understand your point, it’s highly unlikely they’d miss the playoffs this year

I used 95 points because in most years that is enough to do it. Only a few times a team has achieved 95 points and missed the playoffs. Only once has a team reached 96 points and missed. No team with 97 points or higher has missed the playoffs. I'm not sure where you are getting 99 points from.

Also with ten wins there's probably an extra point or two along the way

 

[nobody important]

I just need one playoff home win to be satiated. Everything else is bonus. If we get swept again that would suck.

This is like saying...

I just lost my virginity! I won't need sex again for a year now!

It's a series win or the season's a bust for me. Blow it up! Next year, I'll start the tank thread in pre-season!

 

[PerryPooley]

I used 95 points because in most years that is enough to do it. Only a few times a team has achieved 95 points and missed the playoffs. Only once has a team reached 96 points and missed. No team with 97 points or higher has missed the playoffs. I'm not sure where you are getting 99 points from.

Also with ten wins there's probably an extra point or two along the way

I referenced 99 points because that was their total the year they made the playoffs.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I referenced 99 points because that was their total the year they made the playoffs.

I thought so but we would have made it with less, look at my stats. The forecast models are all showing a projected playoff line around 94/95 points. What makes you think it will be higher than that?

 

[PerryPooley]

I thought so but we would have made it with less, look at my stats. The forecast models are all showing a projected playoff line around 94/95 points. What makes you think it will be higher than that?

To be honest I hadn’t looked at the forecast models, I just seem to recall the team barely squeaking in with 99 points that year. The Kings I believe were close behind.
Of course I believe the Jets will make the playoffs this season, it’s just that sometimes this franchise scares me a bit!

 

[Aavco Cup]

To be honest I hadn’t looked at the forecast models, I just seem to recall the team barely squeaking in with 99 points that year. The Kings I believe were close behind.
Of course I believe the Jets will make the playoffs this season, it’s just that sometimes this franchise scares me a bit!

We were 4 points above the next team in the standings that year. 96 points would have done it

 

[cbcwpg]

Believe it or not there’s a part of me that worries the team could still somehow miss the playoffs altogether, despite the great season they’ve had to this point and despite the odds. I wish there was more separation between the Jets and the last wild card position.

According to: National Hockey League Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

Jets are currently at 98.2% chance of making the playoffs

13-10-2 over the last 25 games puts them at 100%
9-14-2 over the last 25 games puts them at 49.6%
5-17-3 over the last 25 games puts them at 0.0%

It can be tight, but the Jets would have to totally collapse to not make it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I referenced 99 points because that was their total the year they made the playoffs.

But we didn't just squeak in. We had 99 pts. The next team was LAK with 95. So we make it with 96. With 95 it might have gotten complicated, depending on where those 4 pts went but we would have lost out on ROW if nothing else changed.

Just as a point of interest, our 99 pts would have made it in the other Conf. as well, pushing the Pens out.

 

[Gm0ney]

But we didn't just squeak in. We had 99 pts. The next team was LAK with 95. So we make it with 96. With 95 it might have gotten complicated, depending on where those 4 pts went but we would have lost out on ROW if nothing else changed.

Just as a point of interest, our 99 pts would have made it in the other Conf. as well, pushing the Pens out.

Ah, but say the Kings had 98 points that year and the Jets had 97. The Kings would've displaced CGY (97 points) from the 3rd spot in the Pacific and the Jets would've lost out on the 2nd Wildcard to Calgary or ROWs (CGY 41 - WPG 36).

Minnesota's currently in the 2nd WC spot and on pace for 100 points. Colorado is on pace for 97 points and poised to miss. Jets are on pace for 108.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ah, but say the Kings had 98 points that year and the Jets had 97. The Kings would've displaced CGY (97 points) from the 3rd spot in the Pacific and the Jets would've lost out on the 2nd Wildcard to Calgary or ROWs (CGY 41 - WPG 36).

Minnesota's currently in the 2nd WC spot and on pace for 100 points. Colorado is on pace for 97 points and poised to miss. Jets are on pace for 108.

Lets see how it ends up.

If you are going to go back and adjust some teams total pts in '15 you have to follow those points. Where do they come from and where do they go to? I'm sure you can construct fanciful scenarios where all kinds of unlikely things happen. The fact is that 96 pts has only missed the PO's once. Maybe this year will be a second instance, maybe not. It will still be rare.

 

[Gm0ney]

Lets see how it ends up.

If you are going to go back and adjust some teams total pts in '15 you have to follow those points. Where do they come from and where do they go to? I'm sure you can construct fanciful scenarios where all kinds of unlikely things happen. The fact is that 96 pts has only missed the PO's once. Maybe this year will be a second instance, maybe not. It will still be rare.

I don't know if I have to rearrange the laws of physics to get the 2014-15 Kings 3 more points and have the Jets lose 2. Actually the Kings beat the Jets on ROWs with 97 points so...if the Kings had beat the Jets on March 1, 2015, all else being equal, the Kings would've been in and the Jets would've missed with 97 points.

 

[LucianoBorsato]

Just to try and calm some seeming jittery nerves about Jets possibly only squeaking in, not clinching due to other teams winning:

Jets are 3 points above the 3rd place team (St. Louis) in the Central with 2 games in hand.

The 4th place team (Dallas) is 2 points out of 3rd place with 2 games in hand on St. Louis.

If anyone is in real danger of dropping to a Wildcard spot from a divisional guaranteed spot it's St. Louis, not us. Dallas is effectively already in 3rd place due to the games in hand on St. Louis. We'd have to collossaly collapse.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't know if I have to rearrange the laws of physics to get the 2014-15 Kings 3 more points and have the Jets lose 2. Actually the Kings beat the Jets on ROWs with 97 points so...if the Kings had beat the Jets on March 1, 2015, all else being equal, the Kings would've been in and the Jets would've missed with 97 points.

But they didn't. So you need time travel. It still is only one time that 96 pts has missed.

I don't know what you are trying to argue here. That is is possible to miss the PO's with 96 pts? Of course it is. Its been done. Is it possible to miss with 99? I'm sure it is, but it has never happened.