Player Talk: Anthony Mantha

[Shaman464]

He looks like he's had a huge offseason. I'll go with 32 goals, 29 assists.

I think you confused huge for fantasy.

25-25 is most likely upper limit this season.

 

[Henkka]

Playing 72 games and scoring 19+20=39 points, would put him equal stats & career experience with Viktor Arvidsson.

Then we could throw 4.5M and 7 years for him.

Just one ballpark example. I'll try to find others.

 

[Bench]

He looks like he's had a huge offseason. I'll go with 32 goals, 29 assists.

It's been 8 seasons since a Red Wing has broke 30 goals. This happened in the 2008-2009 season. Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen, and Hossa all did so that year. That barrier hasn't been broken since.

The closest of current roster players was Tomas Tatar in 2014-2015 with 29 goals.

The race to 30 continues.

 

[SirloinUB]

It's been 8 seasons since a Red Wing has broke 30 goals. This happened in the 2008-2009 season. Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen, and Hossa all did so that year. That barrier hasn't been broken since.

The closest of current roster players was Tomas Tatar in 2014-2015 with 29 goals.

The race to 30 continues.

FWIW, I think mantha's biggest limit In terms of goal production is the supporting cast, especially if he is not playing with Z. That said, if the pp is clicking (throughout the year) all bets are off. I certainly believe he has the skill to score 30.

 

[Bench]

FWIW, I think mantha's biggest limit In terms of goal production is the supporting cast, especially if he is not playing with Z. That said, if the pp is clicking (throughout the year) all bets are off. I certainly believe he has the skill to score 30.

Last season the Wings were 26th in goals for per game with 2.41 and scoring 198 goals total. The last year the Wings had a 30 goals scorer they were 2nd in the league with 3.52, scoring 289 goals, a difference of 91 goals. No team in the NHL scored more than 278 goals last year.

The year before, the Wings were 23rd in goals scoring. They are 25th out of 30 teams in goals scored over the last 2 seasons.

I'm just trying to pump the brakes a little on our boy Mantha so people don't think he's a bust when he struggles to get 20 on this Wings roster. They don't score many goals. Sure, it's possible. Tatar almost did it a few years ago. As did Nyquist. But A LOT of things will have to fall his way. Ice time, injuries, and a functional offense. The Wings have a bottom 5 offense in the NHL the last 2 seasons.

The only teams to score less goals: Coyotes, Sabres, Avalanche, Canucks, and Devils. Over those 2 seasons, only 3 players from those rosters have scored 30 goals or more. Actually, the highest total achieved was exactly 30. Duchene (30), Henrique (30), and Palmieri (30).

 

[SirloinUB]

Last season the Wings were 26th in goals for per game with 2.41 and scoring 198 goals total. The last year the Wings had a 30 goals scorer they were 2nd in the league with 3.52, scoring 289 goals, a difference of 91 goals. No team in the NHL scored more than 278 goals last year.

The year before, the Wings were 23rd in goals scoring. They are 25th out of 30 teams in goals scored over the last 2 seasons.

I'm just trying to pump the brakes a little on our boy Mantha so people don't think he's a bust when he struggles to get 20 on this Wings roster. They don't score many goals. Sure, it's possible. Tatar almost did it a few years ago. As did Nyquist. But A LOT of things will have to fall his way. Ice time, injuries, and a functional offense. The Wings have a bottom 5 offense in the NHL the last 2 seasons.

The only teams to score less goals: Coyotes, Sabres, Avalanche, Canucks, and Devils. Over those 2 seasons, only 3 players from those rosters have scored 30 goals or more. Actually, the highest total achieved was exactly 30. Duchene (30), Henrique (30), and Palmieri (30).

I'm basically agreeing with yman But Added to points for context.

1) I believe he has the talent and skill to do it but not the supporting cast. (See your first point)
2) if he does do it the pp has to be going and he needs a little puck luck. (See your second point about palmieri et al.)

As I said earlier, 25 would be a very good year for Mantha.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I think you confused huge for fantasy.

25-25 is most likely upper limit this season.

He was on a ~50 point pace last season. So you're basically saying zero improvement is his upper limit?

 

[Winger98]

He was on a ~50 point pace last season. So you're basically saying zero improvement is his upper limit?

I think it's more a case of the team being so lousy that it's going to drag his points down.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I'm going with 25 Goals 30 Assists for 55 Points for Mantha this up and coming season, Depending on how the PP does it could be more. Both Tatar and Mantha seem to thrive with Z so that should be our #1 line.

 

[Ezekial]

I think it's more a case of the team being so lousy that it's going to drag his points down.

The team was plenty lousy last year when he paced 50.

I could definitely see him hit 60, wouldn't expect it. He has a chance to be our best player this season, I guessed 54 in my points projections, though.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

I am curious to see how he does as Zetterberg declines. I know Z is the kind of player who can bump the point totals of his teammates, but I think Mantha was a bigger driver of the play than some people thought.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I think it's more a case of the team being so lousy that it's going to drag his points down.

Even with a league-worst PP (terrible news for a guy with such huge potential for PP production) he paced 50 last season. If he can handle an increase in icetime and our PP improves just a little bit, 60 isn't out of reach for him at all. If Mantha was playing next to prime Datsyuk and we had Lidstrom/Rafalski back on defense I would think he'd have a shot at 40 goals, so by no means do I think he is going to reach his peak scoring potential on such a bad team.

 

[Winger98]

The team was plenty lousy last year when he paced 50.

I could definitely see him hit 60, wouldn't expect it. He has a chance to be our best player this season, I guessed 54 in my points projections, though.

He definitely could, but he might not and part of it is entirely out of his hands. The guy could have a great year, but his teammates let him down and suppress his points.

Even with a league-worst PP (terrible news for a guy with such huge potential for PP production) he paced 50 last season. If he can handle an increase in icetime and our PP improves just a little bit, 60 isn't out of reach for him at all. If Mantha was playing next to prime Datsyuk and we had Lidstrom/Rafalski back on defense I would think he'd have a shot at 40 goals, so by no means do I think he is going to reach his peak scoring potential on such a bad team.

60 isn't out of reach, but a lot is going to depend on the team around him. And the usual concerns with looking at rate stats and how they don't always translate to a full season (though I don't really worry about that with Mantha, it still should be kept in mind). As I said above, Mantha might have a great year but not put up great numbers. I'm not sure we should get too hung up on numbers this year until we see how the season goes.

 

[Beltv]

Under 20 = bad season
20-30 = expected
30-40 = successful season
40+ = talent is there but with this team highly doubtful
_____________________________________________
So, 27 goals is realistic. Right around the 50 point mark

 

[TheMule93]

hopefully he turns into someone that drives the bus rather than a passenger, as babs used to say

 

[Henkka]

hopefully he turns into someone that drives the bus rather than a passenger, as babs used to say

At last season, when Mantha came in, his individual possession numbers started to lift team numbers up in general. I'm 99% sure Mantha is a real deal.

The skill is obvious, he just need to build the endurance level high to be able to be great every night.

 

[Martinez]

If blashill keeps him with Z all season I'll go 28-30 for 58 points.

 

[TheMule93]

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/n...14/detroit-red-wings-jeff-blashill/666840001/

Trashill on mantha:

“We need Anthony to be a real good player. Anthony is going to get a chance to play real big minutes for us, so he has got to take those minutes and turn them into lots of production in a winning way. I’ve got great belief he can. He’s lost some old habits where he didn’t skate quite as much and now he is skating way more on a regular basis. When Anthony Mantha moves his feet and skates and attacks the game, he is an elite player. The key is to get to do it as consistent as possible. But he is going to get an opportunity to be a real impact player.â€

 

[PelagicJoe]

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/n...14/detroit-red-wings-jeff-blashill/666840001/

Trashill on mantha:

“We need Anthony to be a real good player. Anthony is going to get a chance to play real big minutes for us, so he has got to take those minutes and turn them into lots of production in a winning way. I’ve got great belief he can. He’s lost some old habits where he didn’t skate quite as much and now he is skating way more on a regular basis. When Anthony Mantha moves his feet and skates and attacks the game, he is an elite player. The key is to get to do it as consistent as possible. But he is going to get an opportunity to be a real impact player.â€

Hopefully that means he is consistently in the top 6.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Trashill on mantha:

“We need Anthony to be a real good player. Anthony is going to get a chance to play real big minutes for us, so he has got to take those minutes and turn them into lots of production in a winning way. IÂ’ve got great belief he can. HeÂ’s lost some old habits where he didnÂ’t skate quite as much and now he is skating way more on a regular basis. When Anthony Mantha moves his feet and skates and attacks the game, he is an elite player. The key is to get to do it as consistent as possible. But he is going to get an opportunity to be a real impact player.Ââ€

What the hell is wrong with it that you need to rip on Blashill? There is nothing about this statement that is in any way a negative.

It is true. When Mantha is active and all out, he can certainly be elite. If he doesn't, even though he's got elite skills, he isn't elite.

The player management side always bugs me that people freak out on how they've treated AA and Mantha poorly. They're trying to ingrain in them... don't just be okay. Don't just be good. Skate your ass off and be elite.

 

[Henkka]

Hopefully that means he is consistently in the top 6.

He was that already at last season.

4th most ES ice-time per game.

7th most PP ice-time, per game, means the 2nd unit in PP, when both units were 4 forwards + 1 defenceman.

I think he should be put on the 1st PP unit and that usually is a big jump on statistics.

 

[The Zermanator]

I think this is going to be Mantha's true breakout season. He's our best young player as far as I'm concerned. At this point I think Larkin tops out as a solid 2C, but Mantha is a first liner through and through. We just need to be bad enough to get a 1C to feed Mantha pucks for the next decade+.

 

[Henkka]

Just comparing those RFA contracts for fun...

If Mantha plays 82 games and scores 33+38 = 71 points, he could be compared quite straight on for David Pastrnak.

Pastrnak just signed for 6.667M and for 6 years.

Larkin has to score ~95 points to reach the same... never happens.

 

[Shaman464]

He was on a ~50 point pace last season. So you're basically saying zero improvement is his upper limit?

Yes, I believe his pace is unlikely to improve. What will improve are his defensive, consistency, and overall level of play. Plus 82 games is a full third of a season more than he's ever played in the NHL, so doing that while playing consistently and well all season and putting up 50 points as a player in his low 20s is pretty damned good.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Yes, I believe his pace is unlikely to improve. What will improve are his defensive, consistency, and overall level of play. Plus 82 games is a full third of a season more than he's ever played in the NHL, so doing that while playing consistently and well all season and putting up 50 points as a player in his low 20s is pretty damned good.

No doubt, not saying 50 would be a disappointment. But increased icetime (likely), better PP (certainly hard to be worse), added experience and physical development are all things that could help his numbers take a step up.