Confirmed Signing with Link: [OTT] D Jake Sanderson signs extension with the Senators (8 years, $8.05M AAV)

[PAZ]

IMHO, these very long-term contracts are nutty insofar as the player has to stay good for eight years which seems statistically unlikely. If in Year 2 a player tears an ACL and never quite gets his speed back, then you're stuck with an albatross contract for six more years. Guess with the Cap finally going up, $8M might not be that bad, but the risk doesn't seem to be worth it.

We're going through that with Mark Stone right now, who has four years left at $9.5M but has a chronic back injury that can't seem to heal up and thus his availability is at best sporadic. So basically we have a part-time player eating a whopping $9.5M of cap for four more years. Much beloved emotional captain and the beating heart of the team, but golly.

On the flipside, you also have Theodore locked into a $5.2 mil contract and Karlsson at $5.9 mil.

If you signed Theodore to a 4 year contract he'd be making $9+ mil right now and there's a good chance Vegas can't afford Barbashev. Who knows what would've happened in that case. This will be the last year Vegas has Stephenson locked up at $2.75 mil - he'll be looking for $7+ mil on his next contract.

A lot needs to go right to win a cup, but one of the key components is by having a few players on a steal of a contract.

 

[emptyNedder]

Here is how contracts work. You find comparable players and give your guy a similar contract. Who is Sanderson’s comparable?

I am not a Sens fan. I think Lindholm is comparable from a value perspective.

They also seem to have much in common
*6'4"/6'3"
*drafted 6OA and 5OA
*30 points in 78 games as 20-year-old rookie/32 points in 77 games as 20-year-old rookie

Lindholm signed for 6.5M at 28, so obviously more proven. However, the contract also ends after he turns 36.

 

[SpezDispenser]

bad breakup huh

Not really. Why?

 

[KevinRedkey]

Can Sens fans elaborate on how a true #1 put up as few of points as he did? I could see 50 points projecting into a #1 but as little production as he had? I don't see him enough, so what makes him on the same level as a top 10 dman in the league?

Sanderson is the opposite of a "raw" player. He looked like a 10yr veteran even though he was U21 last year. Off the top of my head, the last time I remember thinking this of a U21 defenceman was Provorov, and Doughty before him. That's not to say other U21 Dmen haven't been better - but they didn't quite show the same level of maturity those three did IMO. Provorov obviously hasn't panned out and Doughty obviously did - so make of that what you will.

I think a decent comparable in terms of my personal expectations might be S.Neidermayer before he tuned 30. He averaged about a half-point per game, got a few Norris votes here and there, and was often an all-star. Was a solid 2-way defenceman and considered one of the best in the league despite not putting up ungodly numbers.

 

[General Disarray]

How are the Sens so close to the cap? What if Debrincat extended? What was the plan going to be?

 

[Korpse]

How are the Sens so close to the cap? What if Debrincat extended? What was the plan going to be?

Don't sign Korpisalo and Tarasenko, Also don't have Kubalik.

 

[SlapJack]

sens fans thought of him as part of the core until he wouldnt re-sign.

He was a player that was viewed by some as a nice depth piece to have, and not worth the commitment by others. And when players leave, you move on - it's not a big deal. Pretty much the same reaction that would be universal with every team

 

[NyQuil]

well yea, yzerman > dorion.

No arguments here.

Some of his signings were a bit weird.

 

[DueDiligence]

Can Sens fans elaborate on how a true #1 put up as few of points as he did? I could see 50 points projecting into a #1 but as little production as he had? I don't see him enough, so what makes him on the same level as a top 10 dman in the league?

So when did it change that the true measure of a defenseman was primarily based on how many points he puts up???

 

[Masked]

So when did it change that the true measure of a defenseman was primarily based on how many points he puts up???

When Ottawa traded Karlsson.

Assen na yo!

 

[TkachukNorris79]

How are the Sens so close to the cap? What if Debrincat extended? What was the plan going to be?

Tarasenko+Kubalik= $7.5M

They also have over $5M in dead cap space this year between Bobby Ryan, Matt Murray, Michael Del Zotto and Colin White. Also Mathieu Joseph is overpaid by $1-1.5M.

About $60M is tied up in their Top 6 and Top 4:

Stützle - $8.35
Tkachuk - $8.2M
Norris - $7.95M
Giroux - $6.5M
Tarasenko - $5M
Batherson - $4.95M

Chabot - $8M
Chychrun - $4.6M
Zub - $4.6M
Sanderson - $925k (8x$8M extension)

They should have quite a bit of cap space next year when Kubalik and Tarasenko are expected to be elsewhere. That money was likely reserved for ADB so I could see them shopping for a longer term option next summer.

 

[TBF1972]

Damn close to it. It's just Norris Trophy candidates hes getting compared to thats all. No big deal right?

Sens fans actually claiming they are getting a deal by making Sanderson the 12th highest paid defenseman in the league. If that's a team friendly deal where does that rank him in defenseman? Is he the 5th best defenseman in the league at 20 years old? Is he already the 12th best defenseman and just going to get better? This entire thread Sens fans have been extra with this kid. If he lives up to half of what Sens fans are talking about in this thread he will be a shoe in for the Hall of Fame.

when hughes signed his 8 year contract early all devils fans celebrated the low cap hit and most other fans screamed overpayment. but hughes more than hold his end of the bargain and now his contract looks like a steal for the devils.

i think the senators did really well with the sanderson contract, but if he doesn't improve from here on out (very, very unlikely) he will be overpaid.

 

[Wondercarrot]

Everyone is super worried about this deal*


* except for the fans of the team who signed him and have actually watched him play for more than 5 minutes.
Amazing player, no brainer deal.

 

[GCK]

when hughes signed his 8 year contract early all devils fans celebrated the low cap hit and most other fans screamed overpayment. but hughes more than hold his end of the bargain and now his contract looks like a steal for the devils.

i think the senators did really well with the sanderson contract, but if he doesn't improve from here on out (very, very unlikely) he will be overpaid.

If he doesn’t improve he’s still our #1 D so 8M for a #1 D seems fair.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

His play last year was easily worth at least $6M. If he doesn't improve (extremely unlikely as he just turned 21 2 months ago) then he will be overpaid for a couple of years and then he'll be at market value with the increase in cap.

If he does improve, which is very likely, he will be a steal 1-2 years into the deal itself, and a clear steal for the 6-7 years following.

Again, the majority of the people screaming overpay on this deal are the people who have watched barely watched him and the majority of their opinion is based off of his 32 points.

The odds of him not improving are like 20 to 1. I'll take that bet 8 days a week.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

No arguments here.

Some of his signings were a bit weird.

Adding depth that leave the team when Detroit's rookies ELCs are over isn't really weird.

Kasper's ELC ends then Andrew Copp comes off the books 1 year later, or the year it ends with ELC slide.
Danielson's ELC ends then JT Compher comes off the books 1 years later, or the year it ends with ELC slide.
Edvinsson's ELC ends the year Ben Chiarot comes off the books.

These seem to be the deals that people question the most on HFBoards but don't understand that Yzerman is playing the long game. Solid NHL depth that the kids will hopefully push down the depth chart while on their ELCs then replace the money spent. I know those guys get trashed but they can provide NHL quality depth. That's all they're being asked to do.

 

[TBF1972]

If he doesn’t improve he’s still our #1 D so 8M for a #1 D seems fair.

sanderson overachieved in his rookie year. he outperformed expectations and massively his elc contract. but sanderson wasn't playing on the level of a 1d of a stanley cup contender.

 

[SpezDispenser]

sanderson overachieved in his rookie year. he outperformed expectations and massively his elc contract. but sanderson wasn't playing on the level of a 1d of a stanley cup contender.

He didn't overachieve to the people who had watched him rise up - notably the Sens management. But....you know better, clearly.

 

[GCK]

sanderson overachieved in his rookie year. he outperformed expectations and massively his elc contract. but sanderson wasn't playing on the level of a 1d of a stanley cup contender.

He didn’t outperform expectations he met them. By the 2nd half of the season he was a true #1.

 

[Pinto Bean]

This thread went about as expected. Sens fans love the deal. Other fans question the deal due to the limited experience and point production of Sanderson.

IMO Marc Methot put it very well in an interview with a Senator based podcast. He mentioned how he got to play with Miro Heiskanen and that you could just tell that this guy was going to be special and he said the same thing about Sanderson.

This guy has everything you want to be a cornerstone #1 defensemen and as someone who is typically pessimistic about Sens related predictions, I would be shocked if he didn't become one within the next 2 years.

 

[TeamRenzo]

sanderson overachieved in his rookie year. he outperformed expectations and massively his elc contract. but sanderson wasn't playing on the level of a 1d of a stanley cup contender.

How many games did you see him play last year?

 

[TheUnusedCrayon]

So when did it change that the true measure of a defenseman was primarily based on how many points he puts up???

It's the modern NHL. What was once a #1 defenseman is now a #2. Quinn Hughes took a while to be labelled a #1 dman because of his lack of defense, then he vastly improved that. Chris Tanev was never considered a #1 defenseman despite being either the top or second best defensive player in the league at his prime.

 

[TS Quint]

Everyone is super worried about this deal*


* except for the fans of the team who signed him and have actually watched him play for more than 5 minutes.
Amazing player, no brainer deal.

Yep, you guys all sound like Bernmiester.

Every fan base is in love with their young players.

 

[Wondercarrot]

Yep, you guys all sound like Bernmiester.

Every fan base is in love with their young players.

Tell you what, once you’ve spent as much time watching Sanderson play as you have critiquing Sanderson’s contract in this thread I’d be willing to entertain your opinion.

 

[Big Muddy]

So when did it change that the true measure of a defenseman was primarily based on how many points he puts up???

It's seems the role of a defenseman (aka a defender) is lost on some. That's at least true for those that don't know much about hockey, and/or just use scoring stats to evaluate which has some obvious problems or gaps when evaluating a defenseman. This is also compounded by the fact that those that are concerned haven't watched him play except for perhaps a few seconds.