Confirmed Signing with Link: [OTT] D Jake Sanderson signs extension with the Senators (8 years, $8.05M AAV)

[norrisnick]

Ultimately, a #1 is about icetime. That's it. That's what a #1 is.

How that icetime is distributed is as much a function of the make-up of the rest of your defensive squad as it is about your own abilities.

In Karlsson's case, he did kill penalties on occasion (he went an entire season without giving up a PP goal) but his advantage was much more significant over his teammates at even-strength that they opted to put him out overwhelmingly at ES.

Karlsson COULD play in all of those situations, and did. This idea that he wasn't out there late holding leads is a fallacy. This concept that he couldn't kill penalties was a falsehood.

Did Karlsson lead his teams in icetime? Yes, significantly.

Will Sanderson? Yes, even on a team with Chabot and Chychrun, maybe even as soon as this upcoming season.

There are offensively-focused #1Ds (Coffey, Karlsson, Hughes), there are more defensively focused #1Ds (Slavin, Langway) and there are guys in the middle (Weber, Doughty).

You're trying to say that the all-rounder is the only valid #1D, and I don't agree at all. Ultimately it's about the magnitude of the positive impact on the ice, not how well-distributed it is across different situations.

This attempt at a "gotcha" by employing future HHOFer and multiple Norris winner Erik Karlsson as an example of a #2D is a poor one.

Did you really just reference a season where EK had less than 6 minutes of SH TOI? 6 seconds per game. Good job on the kill, Erik!

 

[NyQuil]

Did you really just reference a season where EK had less than 6 minutes of SH TOI? 6 seconds per game. Good job on the kill, Erik!

That's one way to completely ignore everything else in the post.

Moritz Seider killed 2:35 in 2022-2023.

Erik Karlsson killed 2:35 in 2019-2020.

Does that mean that Moritz Seider is a #2?

 

[norrisnick]

That's one way to completely ignore everything else in the post.

Yup. But it highlights the nature of the post. If you're disingenuous with that part, what else isn't on the up and up?

Maybe it comes from the nature of what your team has had as their #1. If you're used to a specialist it might seem natural to you. I'm used to #1s that are the guy in every facet. If you're the best guy to kill a PP you should be killing it. Preventing a goal against in critical situations is just as important as scoring a goal in a critical situation.

 

[NyQuil]

Maybe it comes from the nature of what your team has had as their #1. If you're used to a specialist it might seem natural to you. I'm used to #1s that are the guy in every facet. If you're the best guy to kill a PP you should be killing it. Preventing a goal against in critical situations is just as important as scoring a goal in a critical situation.

Back in 2011, Pavel Datsyuk was a Selke nominee and 7th in PK icetime per game among forwards on the team.

According to your logic, he was the 7th best defensive forward on the team, behind Helm, Eaves, Miller, Abdelkader, Cleary and Draper.

 

[norrisnick]

Back in 2011, Pavel Datsyuk was a Selke nominee and 7th in PK icetime per game among forwards on the team.

According to your logic, he was the 7th best defensive forward on the team, behind Helm, Eaves, Miller, Abdelkader, Cleary and Draper.

Datsyuk's Selke credentials are severely overinflated from the first trophy he shouldn't have won.

 

[NyQuil]

Datsyuk's Selke credentials are severely overinflated from the first trophy he shouldn't have won.

So you agree that all six of those players are better defensive players?

I certainly don't.

I think they were good enough at killing penalties that Datsyuk didn't have to.

Pavel may have been better, but not enough better to take him off the ice in other situations where he is much much better.

 

[norrisnick]

So you agree that all six of those players are better defensive players?

I certainly don't.

I think they were good enough at killing penalties that Datsyuk didn't have to.

Pavel may have been better, but not enough better to take him off the ice in other situations where he is much much better.

As penalty killers? Sure. That was never Datsyuk's strong suit. Stealing pucks in the o-zone and neutral zone was his forte. Not really what you look for on the PK.

You are drifting weirdly far away from what makes a #1 defenseman, but whatevs.

 

[NyQuil]

As penalty killers? Sure. That was never Datsyuk's strong suit. Stealing pucks in the o-zone and neutral zone was his forte. Not really what you look for on the PK.

You are drifting weirdly far away from what makes a #1 defenseman, but whatevs.

It's reflective of the fact that I think icetime distribution has as much to do with the abilities of the rest of the team as it does your own skillset, but that the total icetime per game in general is a pretty good proxy for who the #1 d-men are in the league (with some obvious deviations for extremely strong or weak teams).

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

what a strange signing for a player that has barely played

i see some people comparing Sanderson to Seider in here which is hilarious

You learned nothing from the embarrassment you suffered in the Stützle and Tkachuk re-signing threads, eh?

I gotta respect the total lack of self accountability

 

[sennysensen]

what a strange signing for a player that has barely played

i see some people comparing Sanderson to Seider in here which is hilarious

 

[sennysensen]

I know it was a meaningless exhibition game, but if you re-watch and just focus on Jake Sanderson and every thing he does big and small, you'd understand why he's great.

Controls the game, takes pucks from players with ease, clears danger areas and clears the zone with ease, looks effortless. Great skater with and without the puck, 2 way mastery.

Sportsnet Leafs broadcast named him 1st star, despite Stutzle scoring 2 goals.

It's clear the Sens got the best 2 players in the 2020 draft.

 

[SlafCaufield]

Why should i ignore a thread? People should learn to read the thread instead of asking or stating the same question ad nauseum.

Sanderson for 8 years at 8 mill is a joke,, sorry if this offends

 

[Korpse]

Sanderson for 8 years at 8 mill is a joke,, sorry if this offends

Given you think it’s a joke, I think all sens fans can rest easy that it’s going to be a great deal.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Sanderson for 8 years at 8 mill is a joke,, sorry if this offends

He is gonna out-perform Suzuki & Caufield by so much over the next nine years, it's almost laugh-out-loud funny

Given you think it’s a joke, I think all sens fans can rest easy that it’s going to be a great deal.

Hey now, maybe this is the first time in 1000 posts (mostly about the Sens?) that they will be right about something

 

[Korpse]

Hey now, maybe this is the first time in 1000 posts (mostly about the Sens?) that they will be right about something

Some people have a knack for always being wrong.

“Now we've turned Koko into a 1C (Dvorak) and Ottawa is gonna lose Tkachuk cause Eug wont spend money to keep him LOL”

 

[SpezDispenser]

Sanderson for 8 years at 8 mill is a joke,, sorry if this offends

Don't care what you think, it's been covered top to bottom, add something worthwhile.

because other people aren't done discussing it just because you say you're done. don't be so entitled. you're continuous crying adds nothing to the thread.

You would know a fair bit about adding nothing to threads.

 

[TS Quint]

10 years ago.

How many contacts from 10 years ago are still active?

I suppose you will show me the significant changes in contract structure in that time period?

 

[TS Quint]

It's just that you've said your piece over and over and added nothing. I'll take guys like Mike Johnson's analysis over the regurgitation of the same old post over and over again.

You do that. I’ll post as I feel and answer as I Like. Sanderson/Dorion doesn’t need you to run around HF defending the contract. They will be ok. Feel free to put me on ignore If I’m hurting your feelings.

 

[TS Quint]

I haven't said one thing that would indicate I'm personally offended by any of this. The whole thread is a carbon copy of similar signings that happen every year.

I'm glad you think you're the normal grown up in this conversation if it makes you feel any better

Ok good, we are back on track. Who are the similar signings?

 

[dirtydanglez]

I suppose you will show me the significant changes in contract structure in that time period?

he wont because he cant.

as far as i can tell no other team has ever signed a defenseman to an 8 year deal directly after their rookie season. especially to that type of money. it's a one of a kind move.

 

[NyQuil]

You made the claim. Back it up.

I really don't care.

Where did I say it wasn't unprecedented?

I said it was understandable. It's a risk and a gamble. I've said it over and over again.

It's certainly a bit of a gamble. He has 77 GP in the NHL. Interesting.

It’s the usual balancing out the risk on both sides while gambling that Sanderson continues to improve and the cap continues to go up.

It’s definitely a gamble because he’s only played 77 games where he did admittedly look like a solid veteran.

That's why most level-headed folks are calling it a gamble.

It's still a limited number of games.

I'm seeing what's going on in this thread, where people are (rightly) pointing out that he's only played 77 games, and in defence, Senators fans are getting more and more vocal with how great Sanderson's rookie season was.

It's still a risk.

That's why it's a gamble.

Imagine paying every player exactly what their market value is at that exact time?

Pretty hard to compete with so many teams at the cap without a little risk.

The reason a contract ends up being a good one, or even a "steal", is because the team usually bets on overpaying a player now against greater future contributions and the associated higher earnings.

I mean, it’s risky.

Of course it is.

This argument is going around in circles because there is a discrepancy in:

1. How much risk the Senators are taking?

2. What kind of player Sanderson is right now and also what might he develop into?

3. What might a defenceman of his calibre be earning based on where the cap is during the lifetime of his contract?

4. Why sign it now and not wait a year?

All of these are inherently unknowable things at this time.

Yes it’s risky. Sens fans feel it’s less risky than non-Sens fans seemingly.

The end.

What exactly are you looking for here?

They are gambling that the contract will be worth it as the cap goes up.

The reason I brought up the salary cap projections is because it's the first time they've been projected to go up in awhile, and it undoubtedly has influenced their decision.

NHL preparing teams for sharp salary cap increase over next three seasons

The NHL salary cap rose for the first time in three seasons this year, setting at $82.5 million for 2022-23. And as the league returns to normalcy, that number should rise considerably more in the coming yearts.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[SpezDispenser]

I really don't care.

Where did I say it wasn't unprecedented?

I said it was understandable. It's a risk and a gamble. I've said it over and over again.

That's what I mean. Over and over and over and over and over and over again it's been explained and talked about.

 

[TS Quint]

I really don't care.

Where did I say it wasn't unprecedented?

I said it was understandable. It's a risk and a gamble. I've said it over and over again.













What exactly are you looking for here?

They are gambling that the contract will be worth it as the cap goes up.

The reason I brought up the salary cap projections is because it's the first time they've been projected to go up in awhile, and it undoubtedly has influenced their decision.

NHL preparing teams for sharp salary cap increase over next three seasons

The NHL salary cap rose for the first time in three seasons this year, setting at $82.5 million for 2022-23. And as the league returns to normalcy, that number should rise considerably more in the coming yearts.

www.sportsnet.ca

This is the walk back I was looking for. I will disregard the “we are going into a raise in the cap that we haven’t seen”. Which I showed you is false. Or that there was a drastically different contract structures 10 years ago. Which is just out of left field.

I don’t think at this point we are far apart which is why is so weird you are so offended over nothing.

My only question to those who are adamant that this is such a great contract is compared to what? And heads are exploding over it. Seems a like a guilty conscience.

 

[NyQuil]

This is the walk back I was looking for. I will disregard the “we are going into a raise in the cap that we haven’t seen”. Which I showed you is false.

I said "in recent history", which is true. I even included the table - you think I didn't actually read it?

How is this a walk back when I'm the one supplying the information?

It's been a decade since there was a substantial cap increase over several years.

Or that there was a drastically different contract structures 10 years ago. Which is just out of left field.

We only really have a 10 year sample under the current (2013) CBA.

Prior to that, you had stuff like 15 year contracts signed to average out the AAV, which is a loophole that they closed.

Under the current CBA, you can only sign 8 year contracts on players you exert control over.

Since 2013, you've had (by contract start year):

2014 - 0 8-year contracts
2015 - 2 8-year contracts
2016 - 9 8-year contracts
2017 - 4 8-year contracts
2018 - 7 8-year contracts
2019 - 10 8-year contracts
2020 - 6 8-year contracts
2021 - 6 8-year contracts
2022 - 19 8-year contracts
2023 - 21 8-year contracts (to date) (Sanderson and perhaps others not included in the total as his contract starts next year)

You don't see a different contract structure trend emerging?

There's been almost as many 8-year contracts signed over the last two years as the previous 8 years combined.

My only question to those who are adamant that this is such a great contract is compared to what? And heads are exploding over it. Seems a like a guilty conscience.

It's silly for anyone's head to explode over it one way or another. It's not even in force until 2024-2025.

The value of the contract isn't in how good the player was who signed it, but rather how the player plays under the contract.

People call contracts "steals" all the time when they are signed, and they don't always work out that way, and vice versa.

 

[Leonardo87]

Hey Folks,

Think this thread has served it‘s purpose, between the bickering, off topic discussion, and the same opinions going around, going to lock this one up.

Thanks.