Prospect Info: Olli Juolevi

[Billy Kvcmu]

Arguably the second best Liiga U20 defenseman after Heiskanen, he's a good prospect. If your expectations are the next Bobby Orr then you will be disappointed, but he has what it takes to reach and even surpass the spheres of his mentor Sami Salo, a good NHL player.

He’s likely to carve out a career as a 2nd pairing D. But it’s clear and fair now that he is absolutely the wrong pick at 5th overall, who ever still think he is the right pick is either dumb or lying to themselves.

I still hope he can improve as much as possible becauset he’s still a Canucks property, there’s no point to keep whining about who we could have draft

 

[CanaFan]

Arguably the second best Liiga U20 defenseman after Heiskanen, he's a good prospect. If your expectations are the next Bobby Orr then you will be disappointed, but he has what it takes to reach and even surpass the spheres of his mentor Sami Salo, a good NHL player.

Sure but is being “the 2nd best U20 defenseman in Liiga” meaningful? Who does that put him ahead of? Vaakaneinen? Salo? Valimaki and Jokiharju are playing WHL so it’s a pretty small pool of comparables.

And no ones saying Juolevi isn’t a “good” prospect, but he’s not a “great” one and that’s what people are struggling with when discussing this player.

 

[Hodgy]

Sure but is being “the 2nd best U20 defenseman in Liiga” meaningful? Who does that put him ahead of? Vaakaneinen? Salo? Valimaki and Jokiharju are playing WHL so it’s a pretty small pool of comparables.

And no ones saying Juolevi isn’t a “good” prospect, but he’s not a “great” one and that’s what people are struggling with when discussing this player.

Exactly. People want great prospects at number five overall, not "good" ones. Good prospects in the mid-late first round is fine, though.

 

[Index]

Exactly. People want great prospects at number five overall, not "good" ones. Good prospects in the mid-late first round is fine, though.

Are we not supposed to talk about Juolevi because he was picked 5th and not 12th?? He’s a good prospect, sure probably was not the best pick at 5, however he can still become a fine player for us.

At the end of the day, draft position does not change a thing. It’s simply first dibs on who the scouts think is best player.

 

[CanaFan]

Are we not supposed to talk about Juolevi because he was picked 5th and not 12th?? He’s a good prospect, sure probably was not the best pick at 5, however he can still become a fine player for us.

At the end of the day, draft position does not change a thing. It’s simply first dibs on who the scouts think is best player.

I don't think anyone's saying you can't talk about Juolevi or am I missing something?

As for the role of draft position, it matters when trying to ascertain a prospect's rate of development. In the majority of cases, a prospect drafted high is already at a high level of skills development while prospects drafted later are at a lower level of development. A prospect drafted 200th overall that makes the NHL in his D+4 year is right on schedule. A prospect drafted 1st overall that makes the NHL in his D+4 is probably a bust.

Certainly once the prospect is firmly established in the NHL then you can toss out draft position, as their play alone is sufficient. But for non-NHL prospects it matters tremendously, just as their age, production, league strength, etc also matter in assessing their progress.

 

[arttk]

Are we not supposed to talk about Juolevi because he was picked 5th and not 12th?? He’s a good prospect, sure probably was not the best pick at 5, however he can still become a fine player for us.

At the end of the day, draft position does not change a thing. It’s simply first dibs on who the scouts think is best player.

First dibs bit is kind of important for a reason...

 

[terrible dee]

Lol not surprised:

http://theprovince.com/sports/hocke...wering-this-can-canucks-fans-handle-a-rebuild

According to this interview with Sami Salo-

“When he came to play for us, one thing we noticed from our fitness testing was that he obviously has to get better physically.”
“That’s why I say this summer is going to be crucial for him, ”
“Everyone knows what he can with the puck, but it’s what he can do without the puck that is part of the thing."
“If he gets in better shape it’s a lot easier for him to be effective in that area.”

And then Salo dropped this bomb -

“I hope he trains hard in the summer, that’s going to be a really big thing for him to have even the slightest chance of cracking the lineup.”


Pretty pathetic really.

Well, there it is.......finally,

Been waiting forever to have someone go on record with a reason why he looked so bloody awful last training camp.

Now my question is this: He was on the Benning weight gain program last summer, and the Benning "claimed" he was 200lbs at training camp, where he also had that famous "Oli-tude" interview when he was asked about his weight and he blew the guy off.

Obviously, Benning was talking out his ass when he said he was 200lbs, but had Joulevi spent the summer doing an ill-advised bulk-up at the expense of cardio?

Or is this just another sign that this guy thinks he is good enough for anything and doesn't feel he needs to work harder than he already has?

 

[terrible dee]

From the games I have watched this season, Olli has been very solid. Count me as 1 of many who wanted Tkachuk/Sergachev (My personal #1 ranked D for 2016) over Juolevi, but I understand where he was drafted is not his fault. Blame Benning for the pick, and do your best to view Juolevi without the 'I hate everything Benning' glasses on. His d+1 regular season was disappointing, and his preformance at the 2017 WJC was poor, but his level of play for London in the playoffs was great. He has had ups and downs this season in Liiga, but has imo had far more positives vs negatives in his game, and has had a very good season overall. His level at the WJC was much better, and was 1 of if not the best Finnish D (as he should have been last year). We'll see how he preforms in the Liiga playoffs, but so far he's looked like a legit prospect (albeit one drafted to high), and one we can be happy with.

I think we have a solid top 4 Dman coming soon, and we should be happy with that, but still rightfully upset with Benning for the pick itself. Olli will most likely be a fixture in our top 4 for years to come, but what could have been is indeed frustrating.

Hate Benning. Hate the pick. Give Juolevi a chance.

The last time Joulevi was seen in Vancouver he was so bad he didn't to be a top 4 prospect for the ECHL

 

[Pavel96]

Well, there it is.......finally,

Been waiting forever to have someone go on record with a reason why he looked so bloody awful last training camp.

Now my question is this: He was on the Benning weight gain program last summer, and the Benning "claimed" he was 200lbs at training camp, where he also had that famous "Oli-tude" interview when he was asked about his weight and he blew the guy off.

Obviously, Benning was talking out his ass when he said he was 200lbs, but had Joulevi spent the summer doing an ill-advised bulk-up at the expense of cardio?

Or is this just another sign that this guy thinks he is good enough for anything and doesn't feel he needs to work harder than he already has?

I think it's the last point you made. If you look at the last of the quotes Salo says he, "hopes he will train hard this summer" As in - it's not that he's worried he'll train the wrong way - just if he will train 'hard' at all lol. And then, even if he does train hard that will allow him to "have even the slightest chance of cracking the lineup".

Cherry picking Salo's comments or not - the fact he is questioning his work ethic big time speaks volumes and then stating that even with a better work ethic - he doesn't have a great chance of making the NHL next year.

Other than him having a health issue, what could be worse possible news? Can't see how he is a lock to play top 4. He legitimately doesn't appear to be a lock to make the NHL.

 

[Josepho]

considering the fact that this whole conditioning shit has happened multiple times I'd primarily hold our garbage conditioning staff responsible

 

[pgj98m3]

Clearly this is all on Gillis...

 

[Lindgren]

I don't think anyone's saying you can't talk about Juolevi or am I missing something?

As for the role of draft position, it matters when trying to ascertain a prospect's rate of development. In the majority of cases, a prospect drafted high is already at a high level of skills development while prospects drafted later are at a lower level of development. A prospect drafted 200th overall that makes the NHL in his D+4 year is right on schedule. A prospect drafted 1st overall that makes the NHL in his D+4 is probably a bust.

Certainly once the prospect is firmly established in the NHL then you can toss out draft position, as their play alone is sufficient. But for non-NHL prospects it matters tremendously, just as their age, production, league strength, etc also matter in assessing their progress.

Just to clarify, you're saying that a prospect taken high in the first round who makes the NHL in D+4 is less likely to succeed that one taken 200th who makes the NHL at the same time? That's really interesting. Do the stats bear it out?

 

[Zombotron]

I'm curious now, so I'll go have a look

 

[Hit the post]

I'm curious now, so I'll go have a look

I have those thoughts as well sometimes....probably the reason why I have a few restraining orders against me.

He’s likely to carve out a career as a 2nd pairing D.

Why not as a #2? Would that be really that bad - even for a 5th overall pick? I don't think so.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

considering the fact that this whole conditioning **** has happened multiple times I'd primarily hold our garbage conditioning staff responsible

Seems a little unfair, given that nobody employed by the Canucks can work with any players contracted to the Canucks during the offseason. You can thank the nhlpa for that stipulation making it's way into the last cba.

 

[Tryforthekingdom]

Seems a little unfair, given that nobody employed by the Canucks can work with any players contracted to the Canucks during the offseason. You can thank the nhlpa for that stipulation making it's way into the last cba.

That's false. They just can't hold formal camps aside from the rookie camp that the CBA outlines in detail.

 

[Zombotron]

@PG Canuck's spate of highly-ranked defensemen who made the league in their D+4 or later, versus D taken in the proximity of pick 200 (i.e., 7th round) (cutoff 2010)

RE: @lindgren

Only one 2016 7th-round D has turned pro (Stepan Falkovsky - AHL Ontario). All other 7th-round D from Olli Juolevi's draft year are still in junior or college.

Highly-ranked D	Made in the NHL in	GP	7th-round D from the same draft	Made in the NHL in	GP
Thomas Hickey Keaton Ellerby	D+7 D+4	399 212	Carl Gunnarsson Justin Braun Paul Postma	D+3 D+5 D+6	554 519 203
Derrick Pouliot Slater Koekkoek	D+6 D+6	128 74	Christian Djoos Joakim Ryan	D+6 D+6	58 62
Haydn Fleury	D+4	57	None

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[krutovsdonut]

Lol not surprised:

http://theprovince.com/sports/hocke...wering-this-can-canucks-fans-handle-a-rebuild

According to this interview with Sami Salo-

“When he came to play for us, one thing we noticed from our fitness testing was that he obviously has to get better physically.”
“That’s why I say this summer is going to be crucial for him, ”
“Everyone knows what he can with the puck, but it’s what he can do without the puck that is part of the thing."
“If he gets in better shape it’s a lot easier for him to be effective in that area.”

And then Salo dropped this bomb -

“I hope he trains hard in the summer, that’s going to be a really big thing for him to have even the slightest chance of cracking the lineup.”

Pretty pathetic really.

yikes. although it sounds better if you imagine hans and frans saying it.

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

yikes. although it sounds better if you imagine hans and frans saying it.

They'd squeeze him thru their thighs like a tooobe of toooothpaste.

 

[CanaFan]

Just to clarify, you're saying that a prospect taken high in the first round who makes the NHL in D+4 is less likely to succeed that one taken 200th who makes the NHL at the same time? That's really interesting. Do the stats bear it out?

Not sure that's totally accurate. In most cases both players probably succeed to the same degree however it is likely that the high 1st goes on to perform below expectations while the late pick performs at or above expectations.

If Juolevi takes 3-4 years to make the NHL it likely means he isn't going to become a high end NHL defenseman. It means he's likely to perform as well as the majority of defensemen who take 3-4 years to make the NHL, of which most will have been drafted in lower rounds.

It simply means adjusting your expectations for Juolevi because he isn't likely going to live up to what you thought he'd be when he was 17 and drafted 5th.

 

[krutovsdonut]

So, I went ahead and did this. This is since the 2007 draft, so this is through a 10 year span.

Quick notes:
*Hamilton played 42 games in his D+2 season, but got sent back to OHL. Made NHL fully in his D+3 season.
*Koekkoek played 29 NHL games in his D+5 season, but has only now made the NHL fulltime, this year
*Dylan McIllrath is not listed, but played 34 games in his D+6 season, so I wouldn't really classify him as making the NHL as he has not stuck fulltime.
*Griffen Reinhart is not listed. Has not made NHL fulltime.

D+1​	D+2​	D+3​	D+4​	D+6​	D+7​
Aaron Ekblad (1st overall)​	Ryan Murray (2nd overall)​	Alex Pietrangelo (4th overall)​	Haydn Fleury (7th overall)​	Derrick Pouliot (8th overall)​	Thomas Hickey (4th overall) ​
Victor Hedman (2nd overall)​	Erik Gudbranson (3rd overall)​	Karl Alzner (5th overall)​	Keaton Ellerby (10th overall) ​	Slater Koekkoek* (10th overall)​
Drew Doughty (2nd overall)​	Morgan Reilly (5th overall)​	Mathew Dumba (7th overall)​
Zach Bogosian (3rd overall)​	Hampus Lindholm (6th overall)​	Darnell Nurse (7th overall)​
Adam Larsson (3rd overall)​	Oliver Ekman-Larsson (6th overall)​	Dougie Hamilton* (9th overall)​
Seth Jones (4th overall)​	Ivan Provorov (7th overall)​	Jared Cowen (9th overall)​
Noah Hanifin (5th overall)​	Zach Werenski (8th overall)​	Jonas Brodin (10th overall)​
Luke Schenn (5th overall)​	Rasmus Ristolainen (8th overall)​
Jacob Trouba (9th overall)​
Mikhail Sergachev (9th overall)​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

that's a helpful chart. thank you. on the bright side, the number of players who busted against expectations after debuting d+3 is lower than d+1 or d+2. so hopefully slow and steady wins the race.

 

[Lindgren]

Not sure that's totally accurate. In most cases both players probably succeed to the same degree however it is likely that the high 1st goes on to perform below expectations while the late pick performs at or above expectations.

If Juolevi takes 3-4 years to make the NHL it likely means he isn't going to become a high end NHL defenseman. It means he's likely to perform as well as the majority of defensemen who take 3-4 years to make the NHL, of which most will have been drafted in lower rounds.

It simply means adjusting your expectations for Juolevi because he isn't likely going to live up to what you thought he'd be when he was 17 and drafted 5th.

That makes more sense to me. I think that gets at what causes some conflict in the discussion: some want to evaluate Juolevi relative to the expectations generated by where he went in the draft, and that evaluation can't be good right now. Others want to put that aside and simply consider him for what he is.

 

[CanaFan]

That makes more sense to me. I think that gets at what causes some conflict in the discussion: some want to evaluate Juolevi relative to the expectations generated by where he went in the draft, and that evaluation can't be good right now. Others want to put that aside and simply consider him for what he is.

For sure. But some of that conflict also comes from those who don’t want to consider that Juoelvi’s post-draft progress projects him any less than the top pair D he was touted to be when he was picked. Some (not all) of it is simply the inherent conflict of “realists” and “optimists” for lack of better terms.

 

[CanaFan]

that's a helpful chart. thank you. on the bright side, the number of players who busted against expectations after debuting d+3 is lower than d+1 or d+2. so hopefully slow and steady wins the race.

Is that because the expectations were substantially lower in the first place?

 

[Lindgren]

For sure. But some of that conflict also comes from those who don’t want to consider that Juoelvi’s post-draft progress projects him any less than the top pair D he was touted to be when he was picked. Some (not all) of it is simply the inherent conflict of “realists” and “optimists” for lack of better terms.

At this point, I'd be very happy if he turns out to be an above-average second pair guy. Stress on "at this point." I'm not saying that such an outcome would make me happy with the pick.