Prospect Info: [Official]: 2016 Draft Thread

[SaintMorose]

Flames don't have a 25%+ chance of winniing the lotto; they have a 9% chance of winning the lottos (combined). Since the lotteries are all separate draws, your odds don't accumulate. The only difference is that there's one less team involved in the lottery after each ball gets taken out.

I know I screwed up in that AHL winning percentage thread, but I swear I'm actually right about the math this time.

You aren't.
Chances of winning 1 of the 3 spots are greater than winning any individual spot (in the top 3).

You look at it as Odds + (1-your first odds)*2nd odds (increased by taking out whichever team won) + (1-your first 2 sets of odds)*3rd odds (increased by taking out both team that won)

As total odds at winning before any drawing happens.

Of course after losing the first draw you cannot re-add those draw chances to the 2nd and 3rd so every time you lose a draw your odds of winning a top 3 pick decrease until they are barely higher than the initial chance come the 3rd draw.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

In down for picking a goalie every draft in the 7th round. They are so hard to predict but can become so valuable.
If we didn't have Gillies/McD I would look at Hart or Sawchenko. Both will be gone by #35 and Hart should be a first. Both are really good.

 

[Taranis]

Carter Hart would be great to have but I would be shocked if he made it past a team like the Leafs at 31.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

You aren't.
Chances of winning 1 of the 3 spots are greater than winning any individual spot (in the top 3).

You look at it as Odds + (1-your first odds)*2nd odds (increased by taking out whichever team won) + (1-your first 2 sets of odds)*3rd odds (increased by taking out both team that won)

As total odds at winning before any drawing happens.

Of course after losing the first draw you cannot re-add those draw chances to the 2nd and 3rd so every time you lose a draw your odds of winning a top 3 pick decrease until they are barely higher than the initial chance come the 3rd draw.

Well it's still a lot lower than 25%, no?

 

[SaintMorose]

Well it's still a lot lower than 25%, no?

Nope.
That's pretty bang on for our odds. I haven't checked the math completely for how tankaton calculated the odds of us picking 2nd or 3rd.
As they'd pretty much need to average the new (2nd&3rd) odds based on what happens when each other teams wins a pick weighed against each teams chance of winning, so if that's what they did then 26.3% is our current chance of a top 3 pick.

Knowing this if you go to the tankathon site you can add picks 1-3 and see any teams current odds at a top 3 pick. Even Toronto only has a 52.5% chance
And Edmonton 39.1% of picking top 3.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

I should probably put myself on mathematical probation at this point.

 

[BigRangy]

Jesse Puljujarvi seems a lot like a 6'4" Johnny Gaudreau when I watch him

 

[TkachuckNotTkaczuk]

Jesse Puljujarvi seems a lot like a 6'4" Johnny Gaudreau when I watch him

Can we tell him to pretend not to be able to do a chin up?

 

[Ace Rimmer]

You aren't.
Chances of winning 1 of the 3 spots are greater than winning any individual spot (in the top 3).

You look at it as Odds + (1-your first odds)*2nd odds (increased by taking out whichever team won) + (1-your first 2 sets of odds)*3rd odds (increased by taking out both team that won)

As total odds at winning before any drawing happens.

Of course after losing the first draw you cannot re-add those draw chances to the 2nd and 3rd so every time you lose a draw your odds of winning a top 3 pick decrease until they are barely higher than the initial chance come the 3rd draw.

Thank you - I tried to remember my stats math and couldn't for the life of me, then promptly stopped trying.

Hopefully someone smart will do this math for me so I won't have to.

 

[Lunatik]

Well it's still a lot lower than 25%, no?

You are correct, most people don't understand how probabilities work, especially because these sites that are giving us the "odds" are misleading the public with these charts because it is impossible to know the odds of pick #2 until pick #1 is made. The remedial charts are based on the lottery only losing 1 number combination rather than a minimum of 10.

The way it works IIRC:

There are 1001 total number combinations, one of which is a "dead" number combination. Odds for the #1 pick are:

• 30th: 200 number combinations
• 29th: 135 number combinations
• 28th: 115 number combinations
• 27th: 95 number combinations
• 26th: 85 number combinations
• 25th: 75 number combinations
• 24th: 65 number combinations
• 23rd: 60 number combinations
• 22nd: 50 number combinations
• 21st: 35 number combinations
• 20th: 30 number combinations
• 19th: 25 number combinations
• 18th: 20 number combinations
• 17th: 10 number combinations

With the number 2 pick, it really depends who is picked as all their other number combinations also become "dead" combinations. For example if the #30 team wins the first pick, then there are now 201 dead combinations for pick #2, meaning our odds are up to 85/800 or 10.625% but if the #17 team wins then only 10 more combinations become "dead" changing the odds to 85/990 or 8.59%.

Same goes for pick #3, there could be anywhere from 336 to 30 "dead" combinations; which means our odds at #3 could be as much as 12.78% or as little as 8.76%

So I hate to say this if we do not win picks #1 or #2, the Leafs and Oilers drafts 1st and 2nd give us the best odds.

 

[FlamerForLife]

You are correct, most people don't understand how probabilities work, especially because these sites that are giving us the "odds" are misleading the public with these charts because it is impossible to know the odds of pick #2 until pick #1 is made. The remedial charts are based on the lottery only losing 1 number combination rather than a minimum of 10.

The way it works IIRC:

There are 1001 total number combinations, one of which is a "dead" number combination. Odds for the #1 pick are:

• 30th: 200 number combinations
• 29th: 135 number combinations
• 28th: 115 number combinations
• 27th: 95 number combinations
• 26th: 85 number combinations
• 25th: 75 number combinations
• 24th: 65 number combinations
• 23rd: 60 number combinations
• 22nd: 50 number combinations
• 21st: 35 number combinations
• 20th: 30 number combinations
• 19th: 25 number combinations
• 18th: 20 number combinations
• 17th: 10 number combinations

With the number 2 pick, it really depends who is picked as all their other number combinations also become "dead" combinations. For example if the #30 team wins the first pick, then there are now 201 dead combinations for pick #2, meaning our odds are up to 85/800 or 10.625% but if the #17 team wins then only 10 more combinations become "dead" changing the odds to 85/990 or 8.59%.

Same goes for pick #3, there could be anywhere from 336 to 30 "dead" combinations; which means our odds at #3 could be as much as 12.78% or as little as 8.76%

So I hate to say this if we do not win picks #1 or #2, the Leafs and Oilers drafts 1st and 2nd give us the best odds.

I was just studying this kind of probability for a math exam tomorrow lol.

 

[TkachuckNotTkaczuk]

NHL Scouting Final Rankings Released. Some interesting movements at the top of the lists.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftprospectbrowse.htm?cat=1&sort=finalRank&year=2016

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

We are getting screwed out of Pierre-Luc Dubois because Brandon Bollig, Niklas Backstrom, and Patrick Sieloff had to channel Jarome Iginla, Mikka Kiprusoff, and Al MacInnis.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Surprises for me are McAvoy ahead of Sergachev, and Cholowski in the 1st rnd for the first time I've seen on any ranking - but I guess scouts are getting out to BCHL games more frequently and like what they see.....

Still crossing my fingers for Howden/Benson to slip to our 2nd pick.

 

[SaintMorose]

NHL Scouting Final Rankings Released. Some interesting movements at the top of the lists.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftprospectbrowse.htm?cat=1&sort=finalRank&year=2016

Nathan Bastian ranked below our own 2nd round pick if we want a big RW with talent, I'd even take him at 28 if the Stars win a couple series.

I'd really consider trading our pick if through some terrible luck we fell to 8 and the top 6 forwards + Chychrun were taken in the first 7 picks.

 

[tfong]

Its ok, we can still get Nylander.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Or Tkachuk. Or Chychrun.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

It's funny, I think there's lots of good players in this draft that no one is talking about.

For example, go read scouting reports on Clayton Keller. While smaller, he sounds as though he could be one of the top offensive talents in this draft. He really doesn't sound that far off from Nylander. Could be another Domi type of steal.

Kunin and McLeod both sound like excellent centers as well. McLeod in particular could be a total steal if he gets picked around 10. Some are comparing his game to Kopitar. I'm not worried about where we are picking at all, I'm confident in our scouts and there's lots of great players in this 1st round.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

It's funny, I think there's lots of good players in this draft that no one is talking about.

For example, go read scouting reports on Clayton Keller. While smaller, he sounds as though he could be one of the top offensive talents in this draft. He really doesn't sound that far off from Nylander. Could be another Domi type of steal.

Kunin and McLeod both sound like excellent centers as well. McLeod in particular could be a total steal if he gets picked around 10. Some are comparing his game to Kopitar. I'm not worried about where we are picking at all, I'm confident in our scouts and there's lots of great players in this 1st round.

Ofcourse there are good players ranked 10-15 in the draft, just as any year. It's the decrease in the likelihood the player will be an impact player that also comes with the later picks.

 

[InfinityIggy]

It's funny, I think there's lots of good players in this draft that no one is talking about.

For example, go read scouting reports on Clayton Keller. While smaller, he sounds as though he could be one of the top offensive talents in this draft. He really doesn't sound that far off from Nylander. Could be another Domi type of steal.

Kunin and McLeod both sound like excellent centers as well. McLeod in particular could be a total steal if he gets picked around 10. Some are comparing his game to Kopitar. I'm not worried about where we are picking at all, I'm confident in our scouts and there's lots of great players in this 1st round.

Alex DeBrincat is the guy I am really intrigued by.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I never said people commented any different. I said there's lots of players no one is talking about, and it's true. The players in last years top 15 were getting quite a bit more hype as compared to this year IMO. Everyone is focusing on the top 3, even a guy like Dubois is being underrated.

I don't know who this Keller kid is, but he sounds like he could be a total stud.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

I wish we had pick 10 or 11 so we could snag Logan Brown. I think he's going to be a beast,

As for Keller, people have been saying great things. There is usually one or two American guys that are totally underrated. Doubt we pick a small forward though unless it's Nylander

 

[Bouma Fett*]

Part of me wants to see us draft Gauthier just to see Calc lose his **** haha

 

[Calculon]

Part of me wants to see us draft Gauthier just to see Calc lose his **** haha

 

[FLAMESFAN]

I never said people commented any different. I said there's lots of players no one is talking about, and it's true. The players in last years top 15 were getting quite a bit more hype as compared to this year IMO. Everyone is focusing on the top 3, even a guy like Dubois is being underrated.

I don't know who this Keller kid is, but he sounds like he could be a total stud.

Not so sure about last years draft more hyped. Sure there was the insane hype over McDavid/Eichel, but look at picks 12-15 (silly Boston), they were all reaches and far from blue chip prospects. Guys like McLeod/Gauthier/Brown/Keller/Bellows/Jost/Rubstov/Jones/Fabbro/McAvoy/Bean
have just as much potential as the guys from last year ranked 10-20, outside of Connor who the Jets were lucky to nab at 17th

But to your point about not caring where you pick: would you rather have a Marner/Zacha/Hanifin or a Zboril/Debrusk/Senyshyn? While there will always be hits & misses, let's not pretend that we wouldn't be missing out on potential game breakers by drafting 8th.