Observations XIX

[wadesworld]

We just completed a pretty remarkable back to back 10 game stretches:

Previous 10: 9-1-0
Current 10: 7-1-2

Doesn't get much better than that. 16-2-2 last 20 games.

I may be slightly nuts but times like these I love to just pull up the standings and just stare at them.

21-7-4!!!!!!

And its easy to forget now because it seems like a lifetime ago, but we lost our first two games- since then we are a ridiculous 21-5-4.

Speaking of that, since getting shutout in Pittsburgh way back on October 7 in the 2nd game of the year, we have a grand total of FIVE regulation losses since then, over two months.

Good times, good times indeed......

But it's also somewhat frustrating. We've been on this incredible run, and we're still just tied with the Blosers. However, we have to think about where we'd be in relation to them if we had only gone .500 or worse during this stretch.

 

[101st_fan]

But it's also somewhat frustrating. We've been on this incredible run, and we're still just tied with the Blosers. However, we have to think about where we'd be in relation to them if we had only gone .500 or worse during this stretch.

Tied with the Blues while playing two fewer games ... one more goal scored than the Blues while playing two fewer games. The key is to capitalize on those games in hand and create space in the standings.

 

[ThirdManIn]

It's also worth noting, if only for petty reasons, Pittsburgh has a record of 16-13-2 since they shut us out in October.

 

[ThirdManIn]

Another fun stat is how the team went from a 98 point pace before the Turris trade to an insane 118 point pace since that trade. Mix in the fact that only four teams have finished with 120 or more points since 1977 and it is something else to highlight how good this team has been playing.

 

[drwpreds]

i just re-watched the game recap of our game 6 win over the ducks in the WCF that we won 6-3 with sissons getting his hat trick. man, i hope we win a cup before i die. or at least have another run like that.

I have said it many times since then, but that game was the best live sporting event I have ever been to, and that is saying a mouthful for me because I have been to a ton of big events (including a bunch of Alabama football games).

The only thing that will ever top that is seeing a Preds Cup clinching game in person.

 

[ThirdManIn]

I haven't been to a lot of big sporting events, and I'm pretty sure they all involve the Predators. I was there for Game 5 loss to the Sharks in 2007 that sparked the worst Summer in my life (as a fan, not in general). If it counts, I was there for the Rally and even got a laugh and thumbs up from Plaster, who I actually liked during that time, when I shouted, "Hey George, just chill" (tennssports or whatever his screen name was stole me clapper, and was just an overall super weird/rude guy).

I was there when we put Detroit out in the first round. Not as big of a win as when they beat Anaheim the year before to go to the second round for the first time ever, but for the Preds and their fans to be on the good side of that particular handshake line was still huge (a Wings heckler was outside the arena and shouted at me, "Yeah I remember my first playoff series win, too" to which I replied, "you look really young to have been around in 1932" or something to that effect; when there is a smart ass in the crowd and you can out-smart-ass them, you have to out-smart-ass them).

There weren't really any big moment games until this past run. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to go to any games until Game 3 of the SCF unless you count Game 3 of the WCF since I was working it for charity. I didn't actually get to see much of the game. When I did slip outside to "take a break" and watch the game with the plaza party folks we scored a goal, everyone flipped out, they waved it off, and then we scored another goal (or maybe I have the order reversed). That was a fun experience, and the crowd pouring out of the arena after the win being every bit as loud as they would be at their seats was something.

So that's definitely my biggest sports moment. Not a bad one, though. Clinching the Western Conference Championship would have probably felt better just because of the magnitude of it all, but being able to say "I was at the first Stanley Cup Final game in Nashville" is pretty special. Plus we beat the piss out of Pens that night, and then scene was crazy.

I don't really like watching football in person, so I've only been to two Titans games. I don't like baseball at all. I'm really not much of a sports fan, am I?

 

[Drake744]

But it's also somewhat frustrating. We've been on this incredible run, and we're still just tied with the Blosers. However, we have to think about where we'd be in relation to them if we had only gone .500 or worse during this stretch.

No it isn't. It's been awesome.

 

[MrJoshua]

It's going to be interesting to see how the defense reacts when Ellis comes back. I almost feel like we're in for a few rough games as people readjust, but maybe they'll surprise me.

Would you slot Ellis straight into the top 4 with Josi, or would you give him a few games on the third pair to ease him back in a bit? I feel like they probably won't put him in at all until they're confident he can go full speed, so they'll probably toss him right into the top 4.

Josi-Ellis
Ekholm-Subban
Emelin-Weber/whoever

That's a pretty solid defensive group right there.

 

[Preds Partisan]

Unlike other players coming back from injury, I'd imagine they're waiting until he's 100% and I mean 100% not the normal he's good enough to play. As such, I'm also assuming they'll have full confidence in his conditioning and will be comfortable in his ability to take something close to full minutes. Why not go with the pairings you want not the pairings to limit minutes? Looking at the January schedule, there's only 10 games and no B2Bs, so plenty of time for rest. I'm probably wrong, but that's the way I see it.

I agree with you, I expect an adjustment period of some difficulty.

 

[Armourboy]

Wouldn't surprise me if it's a bit of both. I think they slate him on the third but then rotate him in with Josi some here and there as well. Gets him more minutes but if things are a bit rough the can drop him back down.

 

[ThirdManIn]

It's going to be interesting to see how the defense reacts when Ellis comes back. I almost feel like we're in for a few rough games as people readjust, but maybe they'll surprise me.

Would you slot Ellis straight into the top 4 with Josi, or would you give him a few games on the third pair to ease him back in a bit? I feel like they probably won't put him in at all until they're confident he can go full speed, so they'll probably toss him right into the top 4.

Josi-Ellis
Ekholm-Subban
Emelin-Weber/whoever

That's a pretty solid defensive group right there.

I'd imagine it's going to depend on how he's looking in full practices, so yeah I agree with the bold. Unless another injury on the blueline happens they aren't desperate for him. There's no reason to put him in before he's 100%.

 

[glenngineer]

Do you slot Ellis on the PP? It’s clicking, why change it.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Do you slot Ellis on the PP? It’s clicking, why change it.

yep without a doubt. ellis is made for a PP. maybe not right off the bat but he will be back on the 2nd unit at some point. can't wait for ellis to come back.

 

[wadesworld]

Unlike other players coming back from injury, I'd imagine they're waiting until he's 100% and I mean 100% not the normal he's good enough to play. As such, I'm also assuming they'll have full confidence in his conditioning and will be comfortable in his ability to take something close to full minutes. Why not go with the pairings you want not the pairings to limit minutes? Looking at the January schedule, there's only 10 games and no B2Bs, so plenty of time for rest. I'm probably wrong, but that's the way I see it.

I agree with you, I expect an adjustment period of some difficulty.

I don't see any reason to bring him back before the Christmas break. I don't think we see him until the new year.

 

[bdub24]

Barring an injury to one of our top couple of pairings, no reason to rush him back. Would rather he heal up 100% for sure.

 

[GoldOnGold]

This year through 32 games: 21-7-4, 46 points.

2014-2015 through 32 games: 22-8-2, 46 points.

2006-2007 through 32 games: 21-8-3, 45 points.

 

[drwpreds]

This year through 32 games: 21-7-4, 46 points.

2014-2015 through 32 games: 22-8-2, 46 points.

2006-2007 through 32 games: 21-8-3, 45 points.

Funny you posted that I was going to post something similar. I was comparing this season to that 2014-15 season, and this really jumped out:

After 61 games during the 14-15 season we were 41-13-7

That means that as great as we have been this season so far, we would have to go 20-6-3 in our next 29 games to just match our 14-15 record at that point. That is pretty crazy- easy to forget how great a season we were having up to that point in 2015. Of course, it all fell apart after that. We finished that season with 6 wins in the final 21 games (6-12-3).

Don't think we will see anything close to that this year- this team is so much better than that one.

 

[Adz]

I'm going to predict that Ellis will be in the lineup on Dec. 30 at home. See how things go and if he feels comfortable play on the road trip as well. If he doesn't, heal some more then play again when they come back home. That way the team has a couple of days to call someone up if necessary.


It's all about OPTIONS, you know.

 

[NSH615]

If Ellis has potential to come back in the next 1-2 weeks, at this point I don't think his issue is being "healed", I'd say it's more conditioning.

 

[Pred303]

Rainbows, unicorns and horseshoes. I'll take it.

 

[MrJoshua]

Rainbows, unicorns and horseshoes. I'll take it.

Pink hearts, orange stars, green clovers, and purple horseshoes. They're always after me Lucky Charms...

 

[triggrman]

Rainbows, unicorns and horseshoes. I'll take it.

I prefer to look at it as aces in the hole.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Rainbows, unicorns and horseshoes. I'll take it.

So, you like Lucky Charms cereal? LOL I'm more of a fruity pebbles man myself.

Here's what I expect of a timeline. Rehab assignment in Milwaukee. 1-2 weeks. Comes back to move up the depth chart. More and more his TOI goes up while working his way back up to Josi. Funny thing is, with Ellis on the 3rd pairings he could be paired with Emelin. One's a bullet and the other is heat seeking missile. The hits could be epic.

Then the season ends and the roster condenses. Imagine 50-55 minutes of the JOFA and S.T.F. lines. With 50-55 minutes of Josi-Ellis, Ekholm-Subban.

 

[triggrman]

I don't see 2 lines of forwards playing 25 minutes each, now with the high paces this team keeps. Maybe 35-40 minutes for the top 2 lines combined, not 50, and not close to 55.

 

[nomorekids]

The individual shooting percentage should actually only be the 5 on 5 totals to really accurately get a feel for how out of wack things are. When you remove PP, Forsberg is only shooting around 12.4 percent, which is roughly normal for him. In fact, the only real outliers in terms of shooting are Nick Bonino, 17.8 percent ( as an aside, I expected Bonino to be near the bottom of the team in shot generation, but he's actually just better than middle of the road...about 6.5 shot attempts per 60. Arvidsson leads the team with a *staggering* 13 shot attempts per 60!) and on the low side, Arvy and Fiala are a little low, sub 8 percent.

However, the thing that I think is the least likely to continue is the strength of our starting goaltending. Pekka has been very, very good...statistically unsustainably good. When I glanced at team PDO (team shooting percentage + team save percentage) it's a modest 101.5. For those that don't know, if you look at PDO leaguewise across the last great many seasons, it reliably always regresses toward a mean of 100...so if you're over 100, there's an element of "luck" on your side that will likely start to normalize...if you're below 100, there's something unsustainably bad going on. For what it's worth, Tampa has the highest team PDO in the league, so two of the better teams are playing at a level that statistically is a little unlikely to maintain. Basically what we're saying.

HOWEVER --

The team sv% includes Saros, whose 91 percent is somewhat hiding Rinne's nearly 94 percent...which is historically about a point or point and half high.

Looking at the numbers that make up that 101.5 -- 93.4 sv% and 8.1 s% -- the shooting is pretty much what you'd expect, but the save percentage is about a point high, which makes up the "surplus" point in overall PDO.