Observations XIX

[NSH615]

The individual shooting percentage should actually only be the 5 on 5 totals to really accurately get a feel for how out of wack things are. When you remove PP, Forsberg is only shooting around 12.4 percent, which is roughly normal for him. In fact, the only real outliers in terms of shooting are Nick Bonino, 17.8 percent ( as an aside, I expected Bonino to be near the bottom of the team in shot generation, but he's actually just better than middle of the road...about 6.5 shot attempts per 60. Arvidsson leads the team with a *staggering* 13 shot attempts per 60!) and on the low side, Arvy and Fiala are a little low, sub 8 percent.

However, the thing that I think is the least likely to continue is the strength of our starting goaltending. Pekka has been very, very good...statistically unsustainably good. When I glanced at team PDO (team shooting percentage + team save percentage) it's a modest 101.5. For those that don't know, if you look at PDO leaguewise across the last great many seasons, it reliably always regresses toward a mean of 100...so if you're over 100, there's an element of "luck" on your side that will likely start to normalize...if you're below 100, there's something unsustainably bad going on. For what it's worth, Tampa has the highest team PDO in the league, so two of the better teams are playing at a level that statistically is a little unlikely to maintain. Basically what we're saying.

HOWEVER --

The team sv% includes Saros, whose 91 percent is somewhat hiding Rinne's nearly 94 percent...which is historically about a point or point and half high.

Looking at the numbers that make up that 101.5 -- 93.4 sv% and 8.1 s% -- the shooting is pretty much what you'd expect, but the save percentage is about a point high, which makes up the "surplus" point in overall PDO.

I get that the PDO number is high, but is that really high or just slightly above the average historically? Just asking cause I don't really understand the impact of a .5-1.5 pt fall off.

 

[Pred303]

to me, the most amazing thing about this 20 game stretch isn't that we are 16-2-2. It's that we could very easily be 20-0-0. Look at the 4 losses;

VGS... led in the third, gave up the tieing goal with 40 seconds to go on a 6 on 5 after missing three empty net tries.
VAN.. led in the third before collapsing and giving up 3 in final 10 minutes
CAR.. tied heading into third, had two minute 4 on 3 in OT we couldn't score on
MIN.. led 3-0 in the second, led 4-2 in third, gave up 4 goals in last 7 minutes

you just don't see 20 game stretches like that. not where a team coulda/shoulda won all 20.

 

[nomorekids]

I get that the PDO number is high, but is that really high or just slightly above the average historically? Just asking cause I don't really understand the impact of a .5-1.5 pt fall off.

It's a bigger 1 pt than it seems. Imagine it for an individual player... 92 percent save percentage is pretty good. 91? meh. Shooting 6 percent? A little low. Shooting 4.5? No way luck stays that bad.

 

[Jonesey]

to me, the most amazing thing about this 20 game stretch isn't that we are 16-2-2. It's that we could very easily be 20-0-0. Look at the 4 losses;

VGS... led in the third, gave up the tieing goal with 40 seconds to go on a 6 on 5 after missing three empty net tries.
VAN.. led in the third before collapsing and giving up 3 in final 10 minutes
CAR.. tied heading into third, had two minute 4 on 3 in OT we couldn't score on
MIN.. led 3-0 in the second, led 4-2 in third, gave up 4 goals in last 7 minutes

you just don't see 20 game stretches like that. not where a team coulda/shoulda won all 20.

That's exactly my thought. This could have been the most dominant 20 game stretch in NHL history had we been able to close the door.

 

[NSH615]

It's a bigger 1 pt than it seems. Imagine it for an individual player... 92 percent save percentage is pretty good. 91? meh. Shooting 6 percent? A little low. Shooting 4.5? No way luck stays that bad.

I guess my real question is the impact of dropping to the 100 average that is spoken of with PDO. I'm curious as to what that means performance wise.

 

[Pred303]

i know you have 'removed' PP shooting % nomore, but the PP is one area i really am afraid will regress some. It's almost 30% now (with a very high shooting %) mainly due to that 13 game home streak we opened the season with. While i really like our PP, i could see it falling to the low 20's before season end very easily, which in turn will impact our overall shooting %'s and scoring for that matter. Hope not, but i could easily see it.

 

[Pred303]

I guess my real question is the impact of dropping to the 100 average that is spoken of with PDO. I'm curious as to what that means performance wise.

to get our team PDO back down to 100;
a fall in either shooting % of 1 % (especially since we on average get a lower number of shots per game) and/or a fall in save % of 1% (especially since we give up 5th most shots in league) would translate into us playing about .500 hockey over about a 20-25 game stretch

 

[drwpreds]

I know we are way overdue for a “stinker” game, so we may as well brace ourselves because it is coming, probably soon. But it sure would be nice to win these two home games this week, because after Thursday we are headed into another very tough stretch of the schedule.

Saturday in Dallas starts a string of 7 games, 6 on the road. And all of the road games except 1 are against very good teams. And a back to back vs Minnesota:
@ Dallas
@ St Louis
@ Minnesota
MINNESOTA
@ Vegas
@ Arizona
@ Los Angeles

That is a really tough stretch- but we could really bury some Central teams over the next 2 weeks if we can keep it rolling.

If we can make it through that stretch ok, we really have a chance to make some hay- after that game in LA on Jan 6, eight of the next nine games after that are at home, including a 5 game homestand.

 

[Pred303]

even after all these years it still always amazes me how tough the schedule is in the NHL week after week. It's just relentless for 82 games.

 

[LCPreds]

No idea where this should go but...

Looking forward, if Seattle is granted an expansion team, do the Preds shift East? Seems like a no brainer to me and as a fan who likes to travel to away games it would make everything so much simpler.

 

[Marty Party]

If so, they better keep our 7:00 central puck drop.

 

[LCPreds]

If so, they better keep our 7:00 central puck drop.

Yeah we would probably end up with more 6PM CST away puck drops but that wouldn't necessarily bother me. The most obvious benefit would be less travel miles and less time zone variance. Primarily a positive in the playoffs but can see from a franchise perspective how the travel distance should actually help the bottom line.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I would enjoy more 6:00 games, but I'd definitely miss our central division rivalries.

But no, I don't see how adding Seattle would shift the Preds over. We would need a Seattle expansion plus a team like Carolina or Florida to relocate to Houston. And from what I understand, Carolina can't move for 6 years and Florida can't move for 7 years. I'm not sure what the Islanders situation is like but I guess they're a candidate as well in some speculation on HF.

 

[NSH615]

No idea where this should go but...

Looking forward, if Seattle is granted an expansion team, do the Preds shift East? Seems like a no brainer to me and as a fan who likes to travel to away games it would make everything so much simpler.

Why would they move east? Seattle would make the conferences have 16 teams each. I won't like it though because Vegas added 1-2 extra 9pm games and Seattle will do the same. Plus we would likely get Arizona in the Central which means another 8 pm start and maybe another 9 pm depending on time of year.

 

[LCPreds]

You guys are right. Not sure why that even popped in my head other than wishful thinking.

 

[JustaFinnishGuy]

6 pm starts would end me. I would have to cut many games off schedule except playoffs.
Can't watch games that start at 1 am for me, screws me over harder than the current 'thing' I call sleep, at least I get to keep up somewhat with the games at the moment.

 

[NSH615]

6 pm starts would end me. I would have to cut many games off schedule except playoffs.
Can't watch games that start at 1 am for me, screws me over harder than the current 'thing' I call sleep, at least I get to keep up somewhat with the games at the moment.

And I'm just the opposite. I loooove the 6PM games. I can watch the game, and go to bed in time to get plenty of sleep for work. The 8-9:30PM starts kill me as I have to get up at 4:30.

 

[triggrman]

I think 2bit is by far our 5th best defenseman right now. Would love to see him in always over Irwin and even over Weber when Ellis returns. B

 

[Pred303]

I think 2bit is by far our 5th best defenseman right now. Would love to see him in always over Irwin and even over Weber when Ellis returns. B

i tend to agree trig. he's certainly the most mobile of our bottom pairing type guys which seems to fit our in game strategy of pushing the puck the best.

 

[PerdFan]

I think 2bit is by far our 5th best defenseman right now. Would love to see him in always over Irwin and even over Weber when Ellis returns. B

Although where has this new and improved feisty mini-Weber been? Getting in on hits and being much more pester-isk in general. I think he saw from the pressbox while he was injured that Potato was being successful and thought he might ought to pick up his game a bit. I like it. Can only bode well for future injuries (jinx, double jinx-no jinx) to the blueline.

 

[Pred303]

tough and important game tonight.

 

[NSH615]

And they are back together. The weird lines were mainly there to create a match up issue on the road.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

And they are back together. The weird lines were mainly there to create a match up issue on the road.

yep all the bitching I did paid off. and to the people saying i was complaining about jack shit, aberg and jarnkrok have no place touching the ice with forsberg from the eye test or advanced stats.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

And they are back together. The weird lines were mainly there to create a match up issue on the road.

I hope we don't see Irwin tonight........

 

[NSH615]

yep all the *****ing I did paid off. and to the people saying i was complaining about jack ****, aberg and jarnkrok have no place touching the ice with forsberg from the eye test or advanced stats.

Don't get too comfortable. I bet we see the other lines back come Saturday when we go back on the road.