Observations XIX

[drwpreds]

I worry that Lavi's teams are so streaky. His first season started like this, we were red hot then fell apart.

But that hot start that season lasted almost until March before the collapse- we were 41-13-7 and then completely fell apart.

But I am not worried about that at all- go look at the rosters of that team and our current team. It is night and day. This team is so much better than that one its not even funny. Hindsight is always 20/20, but looking back that 2014-15 team overachieved big time, at least in my opinion.

 

[Armourboy]

The big difference is you had some guys doing things they never could repeat in that first year, outside of Smith, and even he isn't hugely so, most of the guys are about where you would expect or hope they would be.

 

[NSH615]

But that hot start that season lasted almost until March before the collapse- we were 41-13-7 and then completely fell apart.

But I am not worried about that at all- go look at the rosters of that team and our current team. It is night and day. This team is so much better than that one its not even funny. Hindsight is always 20/20, but looking back that 2014-15 team overachieved big time, at least in my opinion.

True but even good rosters fall apart for no reason sometimes.

 

[drwpreds]

True but even good rosters fall apart for no reason sometimes.

Well sure- there are no guarantees

 

[MrJoshua]

I'm expecting a cold spell. Let's look at it from a big picture standpoint.

Do we think Forsberg is going to jump from 63, 64, 58 points, to over a point per game for the year? He's currently at 32 points in 31 games. On track for 39.6 goals on the season.

Fiala has 22 points in 30 games. A 60-point pace over 82 games.

Craig Smith is on pace for 31.7 goals, 55 points.

Hell, Turris is only two points shy of a point-per-game pace for the season, and his previous career high is 64 points a few years ago.

Those are all ... a little higher than I expected going into the season. I was hoping Fiala would be in the 45+ point range as he progressed. I hoped Forsberg might get to 70 points, maybe 35+35. And I was praying that Smith would have a bounce-back season and break the 20-goal mark, maybe even get close to 40 points.

Maybe this is a case of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts, or maybe the entire team is just on such a hot streak that they're getting seriously inflated stats. I don't know. I'm just saying that usually when something is trending so much better than you expected, you should take a deep breath, enjoy the ride, and remember not to get too upset when the adjustment comes to knock the overall trend back where you expected. Now, maybe if the offense hits a cold streak, the team will tighten up defensively, win some 1-2 and 2-1 hockey games, and keep rolling while the individual stats settle down. That's what I'm hoping. And heck, maybe they really are this good and the gravy train will roll on. I'm just saying, don't be surprised if things cool down for a while.

That said, this is a really, really freaking good team. It's hard not to get our hopes up, isn't it?

 

[Pred303]

I worry that Lavi's teams are so streaky. His first season started like this, we were red hot then fell apart.

me too trig. so far each year has been a tail of different half seasons.. half a season mediocre, half a season red hot..

14-15... red hot start first half where we led the league for a long time, weak second half which cost us the division title
15-16... very weak first half, where we actually had talk about lavy's .500 record over the last 82 games played, red hot second half that got us up to 7th
16-17.. very weak .500 first half, red hot second half that got us to 8th
17-18.. red hot start, now what happens?

 

[drwpreds]

me too trig. so far each year has been a half seasons.. half a season mediocre, half a season red hot..

14-15... red hot start first half where we led the league for a long time, weak second half which cost us the division title
15-16... very weak first half, where we actually had talk about lavy's .500 record over the last 82 games played, red hot second half that got us up to 7th
16-17.. very weak .500 first half, red hot second half that got us to 8th
17-18.. red hot start, now what happens?

I get why people worry- I do, too. But to play devil's advocate a little:

In 14-15 (as I posted above) it wasn't really a weak second half. We were great for over 60 games. We were leading the league even in late February/early March. It was a terrible final 20 games that did us in. But again, I really think we were just overachieving the whole year, and part of that finish was just an extreme regression to the mean.

15-16- yep, that was a streaky year with no good explanation

16-17- first half was not good, no argument. But to me there were some really good reasons to at least explain part of it- injuries, culture shock Subban trade/adjustment, etc.

As for this year, of course we are not going to be this hot all season- it is impossible- we are going to have some slumps. But this is the best roster we have had in a long time and I will be shocked if we have anything to close to any of the bad streaks/halves we've had in the previous 3 seasons.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

something else I found interesting against Edmonton is we rolled turris' line out the least amount of our top 3 forward lines even strength

 

[nine_inch_fang]

It is no coincidence that we fell apart right around the time of that Franson/Santorelli trade.

Wasn't that the year that Pekka was on pace to set a record for wins and got hurt? They all blur together a little...haha

 

[Pred303]

there are no 'easy' stretches in the NHL. Just look at our schedule until New Years;

@cgy
WPG
CAR
@DAL
@STL
@MIN
MIN (2nd of a back to back home and away)

then we go to VGS who has the best home record in the NHL. lol

 

[PredsV82]

Wasn't that the year that Pekka was on pace to set a record for wins and got hurt? They all blur together a little...haha

yes, it had very little to do with Franson/Santorelli. They were bad, but Rinne and then Weber getting hurt are what killed that season

 

[PredsV82]

there are no 'easy' stretches in the NHL. Just look at our schedule until New Years;

@cgy
WPG
CAR
@DAL
@STL
@MIN
MIN (2nd of a back to back home and away)

then we go to VGS who has the best home record in the NHL. lol

Tough, but also an opportunity to absolutely put the skate blade to the throat of the entire central division...

 

[Enoch]

I thought the first season was all about Rinne.

He was exceptional. Then he was really really bad.

The second season: Stronger team. It didn't quite find its groove and Rinne was inconsistent.

Last year, the team was better than the record. The shootout record held them down. Rinne gradually came closer to his more dominant form. When the playoffs came around, we were a team which had found its identity, had a scoring line with fire and two star wingers, and a defense which new how to play.

Also, I don't think it is a fluke we have went further each year under Lavy. More experience. A better roster. Poile and Lavy are better paired in establishing what the team needs.

Truly a remarkable run for this pairing so far.

 

[GoldOnGold]

I'm expecting a cold spell. Let's look at it from a big picture standpoint.

Do we think Forsberg is going to jump from 63, 64, 58 points, to over a point per game for the year? He's currently at 32 points in 31 games. On track for 39.6 goals on the season.

Fiala has 22 points in 30 games. A 60-point pace over 82 games.

Craig Smith is on pace for 31.7 goals, 55 points.

Hell, Turris is only two points shy of a point-per-game pace for the season, and his previous career high is 64 points a few years ago.

Those are all ... a little higher than I expected going into the season. I was hoping Fiala would be in the 45+ point range as he progressed. I hoped Forsberg might get to 70 points, maybe 35+35. And I was praying that Smith would have a bounce-back season and break the 20-goal mark, maybe even get close to 40 points.

Maybe this is a case of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts, or maybe the entire team is just on such a hot streak that they're getting seriously inflated stats. I don't know. I'm just saying that usually when something is trending so much better than you expected, you should take a deep breath, enjoy the ride, and remember not to get too upset when the adjustment comes to knock the overall trend back where you expected. Now, maybe if the offense hits a cold streak, the team will tighten up defensively, win some 1-2 and 2-1 hockey games, and keep rolling while the individual stats settle down. That's what I'm hoping. And heck, maybe they really are this good and the gravy train will roll on. I'm just saying, don't be surprised if things cool down for a while.

That said, this is a really, really freaking good team. It's hard not to get our hopes up, isn't it?

Looking at shooting percentages, some guys will probably slow down. Forsberg is shooting 18.3% (6.4% above career average), Smith 15.4% (6% above career average), and Turris 15.2% (4.1% above career average). On the other hand, Fiala is only at 11.1%, which seems sustainable.

At the same time, if our PP can continue converting, everybody's numbers will just look better and better since the PP is the #1 reason numbers are high. Forsberg had 9 PP points in 82 games last year. He already has 16 PP points in only 31 games this year. Smith has 8 PP points so far this season, which, amazingly, is equal to all of his PP production from the last two seasons. Turris is 4 PP points away from matching his total from last season.

And shots taken on the PP are generally better than EV shots, so if the PP can continue even higher shot percentages could be sustainable.

 

[Armourboy]

I also look at it like this, the team has progressively gotten better over those years, so the numbers should be better than in past. We've never had s forward group good enough to have someone of Forsberg caliber playing on the 3rd line. The guys stats are better not because of just some streak but because they are playing with better players.

 

[Scoresberg]

We're due for a cold spell at some point and all I'm hoping is that it happens before the playoffs. Many players are producing unsustainably well but others (Joey, Bonino, Aberg) can stand to produce better.

14-15 fell apart when the Franson/Santorelli trade was made and Rinne went down.

15-16 was turned over by the Joey trade.

16-17 a pretty average season altogether but made it to the playoff and got hot. This year was turned by the Turris trade.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

i still think we can play a lot better. I've been an obvious critic of our line choices. i will have to go back and see what percentage of our goals have been scored on the PP or by the turris line since we traded for him.

either way, and regardless of how we looked at times, i can confidently say we've never had such an easy and successful trip to western Canada. 3 regulations wins, 13 goals scored, 1 goal allowed. a shutout by rinne and saros. only the 2nd time in franchise history our starter and backup have recorded shutouts in back to back games.

 

[drwpreds]

i still think we can play a lot better. I've been an obvious critic of our line choices. i will have to go back and see what percentage of our goals have been scored on the PP or by the turris line since we traded for him.

either way, and regardless of how we looked at times, i can confidently say we've never had such an easy and successful trip to western Canada. 3 regulations wins, 13 goals scored, 1 goal allowed. a shutout by rinne and saros. only the 2nd time in franchise history our starter and backup have recorded shutouts in back to back games.

Wasn't quite as easy but we also swept it two years ago- combined score of 8-3 (and we also won in Winnipeg on that one, so 4-0 with a 12-4 differential).

But agreed, nothing tops this one. I loved the way we played in the third period with the lead. Most of the time when we go into third period with the lead it winds up being a cluster, even when we win. But tonight we were in complete control- I didn't even get nervous and that is a minor miracle for me!!!

 

[NSH615]

But agreed, nothing tops this one. I loved the way we played in the third period with the lead. Most of the time when we go into third period with the lead it winds up being a cluster, even when we win. But tonight we were in complete control- I didn't even get nervous and that is a minor miracle for me!!!

That's cause Calgary hit so many posts early. Pretty much sealed their fate.

 

[drwpreds]

We just completed a pretty remarkable back to back 10 game stretches:

Previous 10: 9-1-0
Current 10: 7-1-2

Doesn't get much better than that. 16-2-2 last 20 games.

I may be slightly nuts but times like these I love to just pull up the standings and just stare at them.

21-7-4!!!!!!

And its easy to forget now because it seems like a lifetime ago, but we lost our first two games- since then we are a ridiculous 21-5-4.

Speaking of that, since getting shutout in Pittsburgh way back on October 7 in the 2nd game of the year, we have a grand total of FIVE regulation losses since then, over two months.

Good times, good times indeed......

 

[Pred303]

wow.

 

[Scoresberg]

All the puck luck in the world going our way lately.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

i just re-watched the game recap of our game 6 win over the ducks in the WCF that we won 6-3 with sissons getting his hat trick. man, i hope we win a cup before i die. or at least have another run like that.

 

[triggrman]

All the puck luck in the world going our way lately.

A lot of that luck is created

 

[Enoch]

To the point about players falling off, I think we will see #s absolutely fall if we continue to play the spread out lines. This doesn't mean the teams overall performance suffers, but individual stats for the stars may decline. As much as Jarnkrok has been contributing more than he did early in the season, he is not a line driver.

We will see.

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That said, this team is AMAZING right now. Top of the West, and they SHOULD be.