Observations XIX

[BigFatCat999]

looking at sportsclubstats.com the Preds could play .500 here on out and have a 98% chance of winning the division.

Preds are 20 points up on Colorado and basically have home ice locked up in the 1st rd.

17 points up on Minnesota so a lock on #3 in the division is a magic number of 4

10 points up on Winnepeg. Magic Number is 11 there.

9 Points up on Vegas. Vegas is fool's gold having a 5-5-0 record in the last 10 games. 12 is the magic number for best record in the west.

6 pts up on Tampa Bay. 14 is the Magic number.

I remember being a fan in 2002 hoping for a game with a lot of fights and hitting. But THIS!!?!?!?

 

[Pred303]

I really am running out of things to say about this run. even when we don't play well we are winning. i will say this, we were mighty lucky tonight. a few thoughts;

..we played defense fast and loose most of the game. allowed entries too easily all night.
..team defense was bad. but. we had 4 different defenders make almost sure goal saving plays.
1)emelin with the stick life from behind on the breakaway
2)ellis with the shot block and a wide open net behind him
3)ekholm with a stick tie up as the puck trickled past the post
4)josi with the diving play on the wraparound.

..rinne with some tremendous stops. many of them.
..strange shutout between the 4 goal saving plays from defensemen, 2 solid posts, capped by about 10 point blank saves.
..rinne's ability to limit rebounds is uncanny.
..scoring by committee continues. one never knows where goals are going to come from.

..we didn't play very well honestly, but offensively we were relentless at going to the net.
..we are just flat out road warriors.

14-0-1. let that sink in. rinne with 11 straight wins. it actually doesn't feel real anymore.

 

[Pred303]

Rinne's last 11 starts. 11-0-0. 1.64 gaa. .950 save percentage. 3 shutouts.

this might have something to do with our recent winning.

 

[Jarnberg]

I feel this team may be different, but with how much they just keep on truckin, anyone getting worried about the cliche of peaking too early?

 

[GoldOnGold]

How has everyone been feeling about Hartman's play? I think he's been doing pretty well.

 

[drwpreds]

How has everyone been feeling about Hartman's play? I think he's been doing pretty well.

I think he’s been a fantastic addition- fits the team like a glove

 

[Scoresberg]

I feel this team may be different, but with how much they just keep on truckin, anyone getting worried about the cliche of peaking too early?

Been saying this but the team on the ice doesn't seem to peak right now. We played pretty bad in Buffalo and some other games lately. I'm hoping that it isn't Rinne who is peaking too early. Can't praise him enough.

 

[PredsV82]

Rinne's last 11 starts. 11-0-0. 1.64 gaa. .950 save percentage. 3 shutouts.

this might have something to do with our recent winning.

If he doesn't win the Vezina they need to stop giving out the damn award.

 

[PredsV82]

I feel this team may be different, but with how much they just keep on truckin, anyone getting worried about the cliche of peaking too early?

"Peaking early" is like the gamblers fallacy in that assumes that once you reach a certain point you have to regress, and it's simply not true. While we certainly aren't likely to win this many in a row in the playoffs, it has nothing to do with peaking too early and everything to do with the playoffs being nothing like the regular season in that you face the same opponent, who by virtue of making the playoffs is better than half the teams you faced in the regular season,and every round you meet someone who is playing about as well as you are.

 

[LCPreds]

I wonder if last night’s soft d was somewhat due to some lineup tinkering. I noticed lots of situations where we had some abnormal pairings on the ice. Ellis/Ek. Josi/Subban. Subban/Emelin (perhaps not as odd as the others).

Think we have to keep in mind that, while every game matters in a points race, Lavy is also likely leveraging the Preds position to his advantage. Not only for maintenance days but also to play around with combos a bit.

Feels pretty luxurious to be able to do that and still win 4-0.

 

[Montross]

I wonder if last night’s soft d was somewhat due to some lineup tinkering. I noticed lots of situations where we had some abnormal pairings on the ice. Ellis/Ek. Josi/Subban. Subban/Emelin (perhaps not as odd as the others).

Think we have to keep in mind that, while every game matters in a points race, Lavy is also likely leveraging the Preds position to his advantage. Not only for maintenance days but also to play around with combos a bit.

Feels pretty luxurious to be able to do that and still win 4-0.

So the Preds are on this historic 14-0-1 run, played their 4th game in 7 days, and still get a 4-0 shutout on the road. Yet still can complain about their 'soft D'. It must be exhausting to be this kind of hockey fan who can't appreciate the ride.

 

[LCPreds]

So the Preds are on this historic 14-0-1 run, played their 4th game in 7 days, and still get a 4-0 shutout on the road. Yet still can complain about their 'soft D'. It must be exhausting to be this kind of hockey fan who can't appreciate the ride.

My post was basically in reply to a previous post where soft d was mentioned. I fully appreciate the ride but can also see that the team didn't play their best and highlighted some obvious reasons why given the luxuries this team has now thanks to their position in the standings. May want to relax a bit there bud!

 

[TitansVolsPreds615]

I appreciate all the wins and can still agree that we are giving up too many high danger chances right in front of the crease.

 

[Pred303]

Remember, you are never as good or as invincible as you look when you are winning.

 

[sighthndlady]

Our next milestone is home ice for the first round, which means finishing ahead of Minnesota. We picked up two and they lost one last night, so that's down to just 3 points either for us or from them. Technically Colorado could still tie us and would have more ROW, so 1 point relative to them.

Milestone #2 is the division win. Our magic number against Winnipeg is 11.

Milestone #3 is the conference win. Our magic number against Vegas is 12. (San Jose 4)​

 

[Pred303]

to talk a little deeper about how good our goaltending has been and why we are where we are.

..the league average save percentage is .913.
..rinne is at .931, saros is at .925
..so our team save percentage is .929

..rinne also leads the league in save percentage of high danger shots.
..we are 19th in the league in shots allowed per game.
..we are in the top 10 teams in the league in high danger shots allowed.

..we have taken more minor penalties than any team in the league
..we have given up more PP shots than any team in the league
..obviously, goalies have a far lower save % against PP shots than 5 on 5 shots.

computing the quality of shots faced and the number of shots faced and comparing it to the league average save percentage and high danger save percentage Rinne has saved 30 goals this year over league average. Saros using the same criteria has saved 8 goals above league average expectations. 38 more goals allowed if our tenders had been just league average (not poor, but average)

even if our goalies had been 'good' instead of great we would have allowed around 19 more goals than we have at this point

now if we had been 'average'..think of what 38 more goals allowed would probably have meant to our overall record. Probably around 12 wins become losses instead. so maybe we are 36-26-10 instead of where we are. or about 82 points. or 10th and probably missing the playoffs.

now if we had been only 'good' in net and if we use 19 more goals allowed because we had been good instead of great, and we are probably looking at around 6 wins becoming losses. 42-20-10 instead of where we are. 92 points. fighting for the third spot in the central instead of where we are.

don't underestimate our goaltending. it's still the primary reason we are where we are today.

 

[Gh24]

My two favorite highlights from last night's game were Bonino and Emelin backchecks.

 

[FossilFndr]

Was worried that Pekka would never recover from the surgery and resulting infection. Would never be the goalie he was before that injury. Also thought everyone had the book on Saros and his size was going to be his downfall. Delighted that I was wrong on both.

 

[drwpreds]

At this point there are so many superlatives about this season that it is almost hard to keep track of them all.

But this one jumped out at me this morning:

The Preds lost 3-0 at Vegas on January 2. It was the last time the Preds lost in regulation on the road. They then lost in OT in Arizona on Jan 4.

Since then, the Predators are 25-3-4

25-3-4 in a 32 game span. THREE regulation losses in nearly 3 months. That is a 138 point pace for almost half a season.

Let that sink in for a minute.

Absolutely incredible……….

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Hey you guys remember that time a few years ago when we were about to be in cap hell, and every thread related back to an argument about how we were going to be in cap hell from the same poster???

 

[Armourboy]

Hey you guys remember that time a few years ago when we were about to be in cap hell, and every thread related back to an argument about how we were going to be in cap hell from the same poster???

The same one that said we would regret Smith and Wilson's contracts because Smith's production would keep declining and we wouldn't be able to move them?

 

[wadesworld]

The same one that said we would regret Smith and Wilson's contracts because Smith's production would keep declining and we wouldn't be able to move them?

I believe the same one also said that Smith would last a max of 2 years in the NHL and would also flame out in the AHL because he just wasn't good enough to even stick there.

 

[drwpreds]

I believe the same one also said that Smith would last a max of 2 years in the NHL and would also flame out in the AHL because he just wasn't good enough to even stick there.

It would be a fun exercise to go back and find some of the best posts like this and take a look at them.

Also wish I could find a certain Blues poster from the main boards.......

 

[predfan98]

No infighting guys, save it for the opposing teams. Don't eat your own, it isn't pretty.....

 

[Flgatorguy87]

No infighting guys, save it for the opposing teams. Don't eat your own, it isn't pretty.....

He is no longer our own, but point is taken...