Speculation: NJD Offseason Part IV

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

One unfortunate thing that I just noticed (h/t general fanager) is that the Devils currently sit at 50 contracts. They won't be able to sign any international FAs. Granted there doesn't seem to be an Artemi Panarin this year looking to be signed before the Draft, but it still obstructs any of Shero's efforts in signing an FA before re-sign period.

theres no way we are at 50 contracts for 2016-17. We literally only have 4 NHL forwards signed next year (5 if you include Zacha)

thats probably still for 15-16 since technically we are still in that season

 

[Zippy316]

One unfortunate thing that I just noticed (h/t general fanager) is that the Devils currently sit at 50 contracts. They won't be able to sign any international FAs. Granted there doesn't seem to be an Artemi Panarin this year looking to be signed before the Draft, but it still obstructs any of Shero's efforts in signing an FA before re-sign period.

Yes they will.

Four of their contracts are ELC slide deals so they are exempt on that limit. Even then, any contract would come into effect next year so it's not an issue. That's the way I've always interpreted it.

 

[Captain Lou]

The market on Stamkos is going to be softer than most people think. It all depends on whether Lou and Shanny want to back up the Brinks truck for him.

I know it will never happen for a multitude of reason, but he is the exact type of player we need. And I will continue to dream about him signing here until he actually signs somewhere else.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

Even if Stamkos walks, I think Tampa will have a hard time keeping Killorn long-term. Hedman and Kucherov are going to get headline pay days, and Johnson and Palat will get sizeable deals, too.

I'd imagine, if they're hesitant about committing dollars to Killorn on this upcoming RFA deal given all the moving parts with their other upcoming RFAs, they'd prefer moving him in a situation where their hand isn't forced and they still have some leverage.

 

[dzubrus8]

You guys are right. I was thinking that if NJ signs a player to an ELC then it counts for 2015-16. My bad

 

[Zippy316]

Even if Stamkos walks, I think Tampa will have a hard time keeping Killorn long-term. Hedman and Kucherov are going to get headline pay days, and Johnson and Palat will get sizeable deals, too.

I'd imagine, if they're hesitant about committing dollars to Killorn on this upcoming RFA deal given all the moving parts with their other upcoming RFAs, they'd prefer moving him in a situation where their hand isn't forced and they still have some leverage.

Their situation is a bit hectic.

Seems like Yzerman took the gamble on not signing Stamkos/Hedman into their UFA years to keep the AAV down to build a competitive team. Seems like he is also trying to avoid that mistake with Johnson and Palat. If they win the Cup, he's a genius but if it doesn't, he looks like a fool. On top of that, he signed a lot of quality players to long-term deals at reasonable AAVs (Garrison, Coburn, Filppula, Stralman) and paid too much for guys like (Callahan and Carle). Given how Carle, Callahan, and Filppula are aging, those deals may backfire.

At the very least, they have a nice influx of youth coming given they can get rid of some of their bad contracts so they're not in a terrible situation.

 

[Emperoreddy]

The market on Stamkos is going to be softer than most people think. It all depends on whether Lou and Shanny want to back up the Brinks truck for him.

I know it will never happen for a multitude of reason, but he is the exact type of player we need. And I will continue to dream about him signing here until he actually signs somewhere else.

It won't be that soft. His contract will still be huge. Not one a team takes on lightly.

There aren't a ton of places for him to go though that can fit his contract.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Is Stamkos' blood clot issue serious? Like is it a Chris Bosh type thing where it will be recurring?

 

[Ripshot 43]

Even if Stamkos walks, I think Tampa will have a hard time keeping Killorn long-term. Hedman and Kucherov are going to get headline pay days, and Johnson and Palat will get sizeable deals, too.

I'd imagine, if they're hesitant about committing dollars to Killorn on this upcoming RFA deal given all the moving parts with their other upcoming RFAs, they'd prefer moving him in a situation where their hand isn't forced and they still have some leverage.

I keep saying it but I don't understand the appeal of adding Killorn to this team. He seems like the type of 10-15 gritty type goal a year guy that will disappear on this team and be overpaid for what he ultimately brings. He is the glue guy on a line... We need skill guys to get the puck to and in the net.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I like Killorn and think he could help, but he does play like ~17 minutes/game already so its not like his point totals could potentially go up all that much ala Palmieri

 

[tailfins]

Murray legit said at the draft that they traded Palms because he knew he would become a 30 goal scorer and they wouldn't be able to pay him.

I'm sure Shero expected this and the reason he didn't reach 30 before was just where he was in the Ducks deep lineup.

Now if there is another forward in a similar situation for us to pluck remains to be seen, but I believe Shero expected Palms to be as good as he was.

Hopefully there's more out there that were as dumb as Murray last year.

Murray's quote is here:

https://www.nhl.com/news/devils-feel-palmieri-perfect-fit-for-up-tempo-style/c-772571

He predicted 20 goals, not 30 goals. Regardless, it's stupid. In what world is it it harder to move a pending RFA who scored 20 goals than a unproven player who's a 14 goal / 30 point producer? Even as RFA, Palmieri returns way more than a 2nd and 3rd this year.

As GM of a contending team, I think you need to keep the young guy around in case he can help during the year. I have a feeling Yzerman would rather have Namestnikov rot on the Tampa bench and then lose him for little / nothing next off-season just on the off chance Namestnikov can fill a hole at some point. Same approach Yzerman had with Drouin.

 

[Triumph]

Hopefully there's more out there that were as dumb as Murray last year.

Murray's quote is here:

https://www.nhl.com/news/devils-feel-palmieri-perfect-fit-for-up-tempo-style/c-772571

He predicted 20 goals, not 30 goals. Regardless, it's stupid. In what world is it it harder to move a pending RFA who scored 20 goals than a unproven player who's a 14 goal / 30 point producer? Even as RFA, Palmieri returns way more than a 2nd and 3rd this year.

As GM of a contending team, I think you need to keep the young guy around in case he can help during the year. I have a feeling Yzerman would rather have Namestnikov rot on the Tampa bench and then lose him for little / nothing next off-season just on the off chance Namestnikov can fill a hole at some point. Same approach Yzerman had with Drouin.

Murray immediately took the 2nd round pick he got from NJ and traded it to the Rangers with Emerson Etem for Carl Hagelin. So basically he was looking to move an RW for an LW but couldn't make that happen with Palmieri. Now would I trade Etem and Palmieri for Hagelin and a 3rd round pick? No, I wouldn't.

Like people are saying, Killorn is a known quantity - the Devils can't hope to get value by trading for him. If anything, Tampa's playoff success has him overexposed.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I like Killorn and think he could help, but he does play like ~17 minutes/game already so its not like his point totals could potentially go up all that much ala Palmieri

I think that is the rub. Shero will look for under utilized talent. He did that same thing with the DSP trade. Found someone he thought was better than he seemed, gave him more ice time in a new team and he began to succeed.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

I like Killorn and think he could help, but he does play like ~17 minutes/game already so its not like his point totals could potentially go up all that much ala Palmieri

That's a very good point that, frankly, I didn't consider. What under/mis-used forwards are there around the league? Teravainen comes to mind...

I do still like Killorn, though. Strikes me as a Zubrus type with his big size and versatility in the lineup.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Here is a list of points per 60 minutes of ES ice time among forwards, minimum 500 minutes played this past year

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...ards&minutes=500&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

should be a good tool to potentially maybe find some players we could use

names that jump out to me:

Joe Colborne
Mike Hoffman
Jeff Skinner
Andre Burakovsky
Erik Haula
Cam Atkinson
Rickard Rakell
Joonas Donskoi

 

[devilsblood]

If we're acquiring Eberle, it'll be for cheap. I can't imagine Shero would be willing to pay anything close to market value for a guy that's been rotting in Edmonton his whole career.

And if Eberle comes for cheap, it means Edmonton is looking for a culture change this summer. Which really isn't an outlandish premise, at all.

Well here would be one option for the Devils. And I think it would be the type of culture change that would make sense for Edm.

Zajac and Santini for Eberle.

Not saying that's a deal I'd want to make for the dev's, but imo that is the type of deal Edm should be looking for.

Where is Eberle in regards to UFA?

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

Well here would be one option for the Devils. And I think it would be the type of culture change that would make sense for Edm.

Zajac and Santini for Eberle.

Not saying that's a deal I'd want to make for the dev's, but imo that is the type of deal Edm should be looking for.

Where is Eberle in regards to UFA?

That's a bad trade for New Jersey, and that's not remotely close to what Edmonton would get for Eberle.

I'd be shocked if someone bites and pays a premium for whomever they decide is on the outs this summer. They've rotted on a losing roster playing for a losing organization steeped in a losing culture of first overall after first overall after first overall.... damaged goods.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

Whatever happened with that Cam Atkinson ordeal? Weren't they looking to move him for D help, if I'm remembering correctly?

I'd imagine CBJ would be more inclined to hold onto him after the season he had, but weirder things have happened.

Haula and Neiderreiter also intrigue me.

 

[thethinglonger]

So I've been trying to find players using that site that had similar stats to Palmieri in the 2014-2015 season, so far I found one potential "under-the-radar" guy. I have no idea how well he plays but he's buried under forward depth and is around Palmieri's age.

Kyle Palmieri
2014-2015:
24 years old
Pending RFA (contract expires in 15/16)
677:15 5V5 TOI
9.41 Sh%
1.51 Points/60
7.53 Shots/60

Melker Karlsson (3rd line RW for San Jose)
2015-2016:
25 years old
Pending RFA (contract expires in 16/17)
756:49 5V5 TOI
10.47 Sh%
1.51 Points/60
6.82 Shots/60

No idea if this is in any way a sustainable way of looking for trade targets, but I like the aspect it brings

 

[Smitty426]

Whatever happened with that Cam Atkinson ordeal? Weren't they looking to move him for D help, if I'm remembering correctly?

I'd imagine CBJ would be more inclined to hold onto him after the season he had, but weirder things have happened.

Haula and Neiderreiter also intrigue me.

They love Haula
He's got sick speed!
Not sure we could pry him away

 

[devilsblood]

That's a bad trade for New Jersey, and that's not remotely close to what Edmonton would get for Eberle.

I'd be shocked if someone bites and pays a premium for whomever they decide is on the outs this summer. They've rotted on a losing roster playing for a losing organization steeped in a losing culture of first overall after first overall after first overall.... damaged goods.

Ya think? I mean he can score goals, I bet since the 11-12 season he is pretty high on the list of goal scorers in the league.

His war #'s aside for goals against are really good. His chances against are solidly decent.

 

[devilsblood]

So I've been trying to find players using that site that had similar stats to Palmieri in the 2014-2015 season, so far I found one potential "under-the-radar" guy. I have no idea how well he plays but he's buried under forward depth and is around Palmieri's age.

Kyle Palmieri
2014-2015:
24 years old
Pending RFA (contract expires in 15/16)
677:15 5V5 TOI
9.41 Sh%
1.51 Points/60
7.53 Shots/60

Melker Karlsson (3rd line RW for San Jose)
2015-2016:
25 years old
Pending RFA (contract expires in 16/17)
756:49 5V5 TOI
10.47 Sh%
1.51 Points/60
6.82 Shots/60

No idea if this is in any way a sustainable way of looking for trade targets, but I like the aspect it brings

His War tableau is like Eberle's, very good except for one criteria, though for Karlsson it is primary assist's. Playing on the 3rd line perhaps he is the lone player with goal scoring abilities?

 

[ghdi]

Well here would be one option for the Devils. And I think it would be the type of culture change that would make sense for Edm.

Zajac and Santini for Eberle.

Not saying that's a deal I'd want to make for the dev's, but imo that is the type of deal Edm should be looking for.

Where is Eberle in regards to UFA?

Not an option.

The Oilers are already stacked down the middle. McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH. The last thing they're doing is trading for an older pricier centerman before moving someone like RNH. And as already pointed out, you're expecting Zajac to waive his NTC to go to Edmonton. On top of this you're offering them Santini, for what reason? We need young talented defenders. We're no longer deep in that respect.

Your proposal is not based on reality.

 

[217 Forever]

Well here would be one option for the Devils. And I think it would be the type of culture change that would make sense for Edm.

Zajac and Santini for Eberle.

Not saying that's a deal I'd want to make for the dev's, but imo that is the type of deal Edm should be looking for.

Where is Eberle in regards to UFA?

He's halfway through a 6/$36M deal.

I really don't get why people just assume that EDM is going to unload one of their young forwards like Eberle. Pre-McDavid they basically had Hall, RNH, Eberle, Yak the Bust, and a team devoid of structure, talent, and direction. No team can win with one good line and a bunch of garbage beyond that. Now maybe they decide to part with a forward for a defenseman I get that, but they aren't just going to trade Eberle, Hall, or RNH just because the franchise has had a few lousy years with them.

 

[Bleedred]

So I've been trying to find players using that site that had similar stats to Palmieri in the 2014-2015 season, so far I found one potential "under-the-radar" guy. I have no idea how well he plays but he's buried under forward depth and is around Palmieri's age.

Kyle Palmieri
2014-2015:
24 years old
Pending RFA (contract expires in 15/16)
677:15 5V5 TOI
9.41 Sh%
1.51 Points/60
7.53 Shots/60

Melker Karlsson (3rd line RW for San Jose)
2015-2016:
25 years old
Pending RFA (contract expires in 16/17)
756:49 5V5 TOI
10.47 Sh%
1.51 Points/60
6.82 Shots/60

No idea if this is in any way a sustainable way of looking for trade targets, but I like the aspect it brings

I wouldn't mind him here, though I'm not sure for a second round pick like we got Palmieri for. He seems to be in Pete's doghouse there, if anybody is. I'm hot and cold on him.